With the 2011 regular season fast-approaching, it's time to do a breakdown of the upcoming schedule for the Patriots.  Last week, I made predictions on the first four games of the season and had New England rolling to a 8-0 start.  Here is my breakdown of Games 9-12.

Week 10 - Away vs. New York Jets

The Patriots lost this game last year, and Bill Belichick rarely falls into the same trap twice. I think the Patriots take the opportunity to slam the door shut on the AFC East by completing their sweep of the Jets.  When the Patriots are focused, they almost always answer the call.  I don't see them looking past New York one bit this season and will take care of business.

Predicted Record: 9-0

The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites as they open the regular season at Miami on Monday Night Football.

The beginning of fall means a lot of things. Leaves turning. Hurricanes forming. School buses making us late for work. First-year college girls making the first of many bad decisions. The Red Sox and Yankees yawning at the rest of their division. And the Dolphins still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. (We’re talking early fall here; not mid-October.)

This spread says more about Miami’s problems than it says about New England’s strength. The Dolphin offense remains an unsettled mess. The key additions (Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas) have done nothing to inspire any confidence in the preseason. They’re still starting Chad Henne at QB, which is about as exciting as buying a new sweater-vest. And they didn’t do much to improve a defense that was mediocre in 2010. With a tougher schedule in 2011, it’s difficult to envision the Dolphins improving on last year’s 7-9 record.

While the Pats return most of their important pieces on offense, New England’s defense is a bit of a question mark with the switch to more four-man fronts. In theory, it should help the team get after the quarterback and play to the strengths of the linebacker corps, but we’ve yet to see this unit in action in a game that matters. While the defensive backfield should be a strength, they don’t have a corner that matches up well against Brandon Marshall. If the Dolphins manage to keep it close, it is almost certainly because their offense does just enough to take advantage of any hiccups by the defense.

The Dolphins always play the Patriots close in Miami, but based on the talent deficit between these two teams, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins keeping it close.

I like the Patriots to cover the spread and win by double digits.

Other lines I like:

OVER (37.5) on Giants @ Redskins

This is my favorite line of the week. The Redskins did nothing to shore up a secondary that allowed the second-most passing yards last year, and playing cornerback for the Giants this preseason may have been more hazardous that wrestling a shark in the open ocean. These two teams will cover the over in the third quarter.

Giants (-3) @ Redskins

Does anyone really want to lay money that an offense highlighted by Rex Grossman and Tim Hightower can hang with anybody? Washington looks like a 4-win team this year, and those kinds of teams typically don’t hang with playoff contenders on a regular basis.

Falcons (-2) @ Bears

I know, I know. I’m betting against two home underdogs again. It’s a sickness. The Bears did almost nothing to improve in the offseason, while the Falcons appear to have taken several steps forward. This should be a close game one way or another, so I’d take the points.

2011 record ATS: 2-2

With the 2011 regular season fast-approaching, it's time to do a breakdown of the upcoming schedule for the Patriots.  Last week, I made predictions on the first four games of the season and had New England rolling to a 4-0 start.  Here is my breakdown of Games 5-8.

Week 5 - Home vs. New York Jets

This is the game that every Patriots fan has circled on their calendar.  It's time to serve a dish of revenge, piping hot.  Jets fans are probably supremely confident that their boys will be able to waltz into Foxboro and recreate the pounding that they handed New England in last season's playoffs.  However, the Patriots rarely allow teams to fool them twice.  You can be sure that Belichick has a whole host of schemes cooked up to counter Rex Ryan's game plan.  This is going to be a brawl, and I expect the Patriots to come out the victors.

Predicted Record: 5-0

As the Patriots trim their roster down to the final 53, a few notable players will not be on the team this season.

In a loaded backfield with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, Sammy Morris simply wouldn't see the field. 

The 12-year veteran was released Saturday after spending four seasons with the club. Morris was a tough runner in his first few years with the club, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. However, last season Morris' average slipped to 2.8 as he served as a fullback more than a runner. 

In a somewhat surprising move, the club also released defensive end Eric Moore. The former UFL star had an instant impact after being picked up late in the season in 2010, but must not have shown enough this offseason to warrant a spot in a crowded defensive line. 

Sixth-round pick Markell Carter was also released but could join the practice squad. 

After the 2011 draft, it appeared the Patriots were loaded with too many running backs.

At this point, no one is even sure what the depth chart will look like.

Last year’s pair of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead accounted for over 1,900 all-purpose yards and 19 touchdowns, so when the team added two high-round picks in Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, the future looked bright.

However, the situation isn’t as clear after the end of the preseason Thursday night.

Vereen, the 56^th overall pick, missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury, and didn’t look particularly good in the Pats’ 18-17 loss to the Giants.

While he was running behind backups himself, Vereen only averaged 3.1 yards on 11 carries and only caught one pass for eight yards.

Ridley had been a preseason star through the first two games, but he wasn’t able to play in the final two games due to injury.

Veteran Kevin Faulk, who suffered a torn ACL last season, has been on PUP and should open the season on that same list and could be activated if one of the top backs gets injured or is ineffective.

There has been some speculation that Vereen could have been placed on IR or even cut because of his failure to get on the field, but with his speed and versatility, I think he should carve out a role.

The final veteran who could be cut, but should make the roster because of his special teams contributions and versatility is Sammy Morris. Although he’s not much of a threat as a ball carrier, he’s a solid coverage player on kickoffs and punts and has the capability to block and contribute as a short-yardage back.

Roster Prediction: Green-Ellis gets majority of carries, Woodhead is exclusive third-down back, Ridley and Vereen both on active roster, Sammy Morris is lone fullback, Faulk on PUP. Richard Medlin and Eric Kettani cut.

Tonight is the final preseason game that will take place before it all gets underway on Monday, September 12^th against the Miami Dolphins. The New York Giants come into Gillette Stadium in a game where we probably will only see the starters for both teams for about a series, if at all. New England fans still have a bad taste in their mouth from the Super Bowl loss a few years ago to the G-Men, but that score can probably be settled when the two teams meet up later in the season,

The bad taste in the 2011 season came last Saturday when the Lions beat up the Patriots in all facets of the game. New England did not show much, but that does not change the fact that they did not come prepared. Coach Belichick was not happy and there maybe some surprise cuts along the way. We saw that earlier this week when he cut veteran safety James Sanders, which surprised everybody. It makes you wonder who is next. The 4^th preseason game is not intriguing to most football fans, but this game is the last chance for a player to show that they can make the final cut.

We will look to see if Ryan Mallet takes another step in his quarterback progression, if the offensive line can get some protection and some battles at certain spots within the team.

In the keys for this game, we spotlight three guys who could be on the chopping block after tonight:

1. WR Brandon Tate – Just think that ten months ago we were talking about Brandon Tate being the deep threat that replaces Randy Moss. Now, he may be cut after this game. He was a non-factor in the kick return game when Jason Hanson was popping up kicks on Saturday. Plus, he’s been a non-factor offensively. You know how you can tell his job is on the line. Bill Belichick brought in Tiquan Underwood from the Jaguars as another receiver to compete with in camp. Taylor Price has seen more reps in games as well. This makes Tate look like the odd man out unless he shows flashes in this game.

2. CB Darius Butler – The second round pick from two seasons ago has not shown much confidence in the preseason in terms of his coverage skills. Belichick has shown he is not afraid to cut cornerbacks. He has cut three so far to get the total down to 80 players before this game, including Jonathan Wilhite who was a member of the 2008 draft class. Plus, on Wednesday, the Patriots signed Antwaun Molden off waivers who used to play cornerback for the Texans.. Keep an eye there.

3. S James Ihedigbo – This is a tough call for the Patriots because Belichick brought the former Jet in because he shined in the rare playing time he got in New York, particularly against the Pats. He is in competition with S Josh Barrett for the 4^th safety spot. Barrett is seen by the team as a guy who can come through on special teams and worked with ST coordinator Scott O’Brien in Denver. I like Ihedigbo and he can be a special teamer, but he struggled to tackle anybody on Saturday when he was on the field.

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session.  Up this week is Bloguin's own Ultimate NYG.  Andrew Furman, the site's lead blogger, was kind enough to answer our questions despite having gone through Hurricane Irene this past weekend and having some rather short notice with the Giants preseason game vs. the Jets being moved back.  On the flip side, answering a few questions is the least he could do after Super Bowl XLII. 

Sorry, don't ask me why I brought that up.

I wanted to pick some other play as the #1 overall selection, simply because Dan Connoly's kickoff return was the "obvious" choice.  However, after much deliberation, I decided that this pick was the obvious choice for a reason.  No other play managed to nail the "triple threat" that this one did.  First, Connoly's kickoff return certainly had the "wow factor" that you want from any big play.  As it was happening, you simply couldn't believe what you were seeing.  Second, it happened to be flat-out hilarious. Third, and most importantly, this play was absolutely crucial in propelling the Patriots to victory over Green Bay.  Up until Connoly's big run, the Pats had looked fairly anemic.  The record-breaking play for a return by an offensive lineman proved to be just the spark New England needed.  It set up an easy touchdown and shifted momentum back towards the Patriots.  

So that wraps up our nearly three month journey of recapping the best plays of 2010 for the Patriots.  Click the links below to take a trip down memory lane.  It won't be long before the 2011 incarnation of this team is compiling their own highlight reel!

Past Top Plays

#2 - Sanders Picks Peyton

#3 - Zoltan's Game-Saving Punt

#4 - Chung's Miami Heroics

#5 - Moss Blows Up Revis Island

#6 - Branch's Turkey Day TD

#7 - McCourty's Heads Up Pick of Favre

#8 - Woodhead's Darting TD Against Indy

#9 - McCourty Forces Snow Fumble

#10 - Sanders TAINTs Roethlisberger

#11 - Gronk's Hopping TD

#12 - Branch's TD in the Snow

Saturday Night, the preseason game that everyone cares the most about will take place in Ford Field as the Patriots take on the Detroit Lions in a nationally televised game. Against Tampa, the first team offense looked to be playing a different game than the Bucs as they were speeding up the tempo, even Gerald McCoy could not get them to stop. Now, the starters will be playing this game into the 3^rd Quarter. However, I would not be surprised if coach Belichick plays his guys three full quarters to make sure they are ready for September 12^th against the Miami Dolphins.

This Lions team has the chance to be a playoff team if their quarterback, Matthew Stafford, is able to stay healthy for 16 straight games. They can get after the quarterback with their franchise defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc on the defensive line. Jim Schwartz has built this team from 0-16 a couple of years ago to a team that can compete in the tough NFC North division. Plus, they will have a sell-out crowd, which is good for that city. They did give the Patriots a run for their money back on Thanksgiving in New England’s 45-24 win.

Here are some keys to think about while you are watching the game:

1. Look Out for Suh: Since the starters will be in for most of this game, the guy that worries me most on the Lions in Suh. I look back to the preseason of 2009 when Albert Haynesworth laid out Tom Brady, causing him to injure his shoulder. These are the kind of things that can happen in preseason and Detroit will be a team that can put pressure on the quarterback. Detroit added some depth to their defense in the linebacking corps as well as the secondary, but their strength is Suh, Kyle VandenBosch and Cliff Avril on the defensive line. Look for pressure and tons of it.

2. Battle for the CB spot: With 2^nd round pick Ras-I Dowling not doing much practice of late, the focus will be on two cornerbacks who could be vying for a roster spot. One of them is last year’s 2^nd round pick Darius Butler. Butler didn’t see much time in 2010 with the emergence of Kyle Arrington and he has not looked very confident in the preseason particularly in defending downfield passes. His job is safer than Jonathan Wilhite, but if no injury occurs, the acquisition of James Ihedigbo from the Jets could mean Butler might be out by final cuts.

3. The Return of James Sanders: There are reports out that safety James Sanders will be back in the lineup for Saturday night’s game. He had a hamstring injury, so he did not participate in many practices during training camp. However, his experience will help him return much more smoothly then let’s say an Albert Haynesworth or a Shaun Ellis. He has now practice fully this week, so the 7^th year safety will be key in forcing turnovers in the secondary (3 INT’s, 58 tackles in 2010)