Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Ross Warner from Justice is Coming, Bloguin's San Diego Chargers blog.  Here's what Ross had to say about the Chargers and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. First, I want to start with the expectations put on this team. Most experts think this is the Chargers' year to win the Super Bowl. Is this their time and do you think they are the team to beat in the AFC?

I wouldn't say that most experts are picking the Chargers to reach the Super Bowl.  It has been that way in some year's past, but I think at this point those "experts" are just thinking that they've got to get out of their own way and over the hump eventually.  Is it their time?  It's certainly the fans' time.  They've suffered through 3 first-round home field choke jobs and I think the one against the Pats still hurts many fans the most.  I don't think the Bolts are the team to beat right now--more people would say you guys are.  But I would like to believe that they will be the team to beat when it matters most.  That's always been the problem with the Chargers.

2. How concerned are you with the special teams unit, especially with Percy Harvin last week running the kick back. Could this flaw hurt their chances for the Super Bowl?

Much like the Chargers themselves, I have to believe that they can't make the same mistakes over and over again on special teams.  Our new ST coach has a good track record from his time in Tampa.  But Steve Crosby and the Chargers' special teams of the 2004-2009 years were some of the best groups in the league.  Defections and injuries certainly led to the disaster a year ago.  However, a change had to be made since the message clearly wasn't getting through.  AJ Smith is not one for knee-jerk reactions, but I would have like to have seen the move done last year when it might have done some good.

 

3. Last year, the Patriots beat the Chargers due to a Kris Brown missed FG in place of Nate Kaeding. This week, Nick Novak most likely takes over. How detrimental is it to Norv Turner not to have Kaeding?

Are you really asking me how I feel about Nate Kaeding? Look, he is a nice guy and he appears to understand how badly he has choked in January.  But that isn't getting us a Lombardi Trophy.  As you remember, the Kris Brown field goal was only the result of an onsides kick to even give him that shot.  Mike Vanderjagt was given one "mulligan" in the playoffs and that kick against the Steelers was a much harder one than any of Kaeding's misses (except for maybe the one that ended the 1/14/07 meltdown against New England). He's missed 4 kicks in 2 playoff losses against the Jets. Enough said.  Nick Novack, or anyone else, would be an upgrade in my mind.  All of Kaeding's makes in the regular season (I know he's the most accurate during that span, as was Vanderjagt) mean nothing.  As I saw one Charger fan post on a message board, "3 points in January would make Nick Novak my new BFF."

4. Phillip Rivers finally has a whole set of weapons with Vincent Jackson back for a full season? What kind of difference does Vincent Jackson have on this team?

Vincent Jackson makes a big difference for this offtense.  I think where it is most evident is when it frees up other guys.  One of the many cliches that the Chargers allow to be propogated about them is that Rivers can throw to anyone as long as they are tall.  Jackson is a legitimate matchup problem for defenses.  When they are focused on him, other guys can get free.  Jackson didn't have great numbers last week, but Rivers overthrew him on a wide open touchdown.  The mid range passing game was the one working last week but it remains to be seen if that was adjusting and adapting on the Bolts' part or just the result of shortcomings in Minnesota's secondary.

 

5. Running back Mike Tolbert reportedly suffered a bruise to his knee in the win Sunday. If he is out, can San Diego run effectively? What has Tolbert brought to this team with LT and Sproles out?

I love Mike Tolbert.  He gives the Chargers an attitude that they so often seem to lack.  His knee should be "fine," but his running style obviously lends to him getting hit a lot.  However, he's the one doing the hitting often times.  But Tolbert cannot be the Chargers' only option in the run game.  Ryan Mathews clearly has a ton of explosiveness and manueverability.  The Chargers need both guys to be working on both the ground and the air.  That is how the production that was once coming from LT and Sproles can be recouped.  Jordan Todman, a rookie who looked to be the replacement for Sproles in preseason, was inactive last week.

6. In 2012, is Norv Turner the head coach?

Is Turner the coach?  Not if this team flames out yet again.  AJ Smith may even find his historically comfy perch at Charger Park getting increasingly hot if that happens.  The Chargers have nothing to show for all of their regular season wins and division titles.  If this team can't at least get back to the AFC title game, Norval could be jettisoned.

 

7. Give us a pick. Who do you like Sunday in Foxboro and why?

Who do I like on Sunday?  There is no reason to think that the Chargers will take down the Pats, but I have to believe.  I was in the stands when they allowed a relatively unknown Tom Brady to lead his team back against the Bolts in 2001 and I was there when the Chargers blew them out in 2005.  This is the sort of game the Bolts haven't won in the past, especially in the playoffs.  When they came to the Giants Stadium in 2009, I also didn't see much reason to think they would pull that game out.  They needed a last-second miracle to do it, but it propelled them throughout the rest of that season until their old ways found their way back in the playoffs.  You can see that I am constantly in conflict between what I want the Chargers to do and what they end up doing.  I have to believe that Philip Rivers takes some steps towards winning big games again, instead of simply being a guy with great numbers.  I think that begins on Sunday.

Bolts 28, Pats 24.

As expected, there are some big changes in the Top 12.  We have a new #1 team, we have a team making it's Top 12 debut, we have two teams rising 4 spots each, and two teams plummeting 5 spots each, and two teams in the Top 12 who weren't there last week!   And next week is almost guaranteed to be just as crazy with six of our twelve teams facing off against each other!   Click "Read More" to see the madness!

The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites as they prepare to host the San Diego Chargers in Week 2.

To me, betting on Chargers games is about as scientific as placing bets on a roulette wheel. San Diego has an elite defense, strong running game and top-shelf quarterback, but you never really know if the team is going to show up on any given week. They could give you four good quarters, or they might give you one. Norv Turner can look like Bill Parcells one minute and Eric Mangini the next. Rivers could throw for 500 yards and six TDs, but they might somehow give up nine special teams TD and still lose. This enigma was never more evident than in last year’s game against New England. The Patriots were limited to less than 180 yards of total offense, but won 23-20 because of San Diego’s untimely turnovers and other mental lapses. In short, the Chargers won everywhere except the scoreboard. Even last week against the Vikings, they limited McNabb to 39 yards passing, held Adrian Peterson under 100 yards rushing, and yet they still trailed for most of the game before pulling out a late 24-17 victory. How does that happen?

The Patriots gained roughly a billion yards against Miami in Week 1, but the Chargers pass defense will provide a much stiffer test. If someone wanted to argue that San Diego has the league’s best pass defense, I don’t think I’d argue with them (mostly because I deeply despise the other teams that could reasonably make that argument). Rivers is a far better quarterback than Chad Henne. San Diego’s running game in stronger than Miami’s. Chargers receivers and tight ends are more explosive and versatile than Miami’s corps. New England’s defense is still a work in progress, so I don’t like their odds of shutting down a better offense than the one they struggled against on Monday night. The national media is gushing about the Patriots after Brady’s 500-yard performance, but it’s important to remember that there are still holes in this team. They won 38-24, not 38-0.

With all that said, this line is right where it should be for sportsbooks. It’s tough to spot a team like San Diego more than a TD against any team, even if they’re on the road against a Super Bowl contender. If the Chargers grab the lead, their defense won’t make it easy for New England to catch up. If New England is staked to a lead of more than a TD, I don’t trust the pass defense to hold it. And don’t forget that the Patriots are coming off a short week.

I think New England will win a close game, but I expect San Diego to cover the spread.

 

Other Lines I Like This Week

Ravens (-7) @ Titans

Am I missing something here? The Titans couldn’t beat a team led by Luke McCown last week, and they struggled to put up points against a middle-of-the-pack Jaguars defense. And now they have to play a Ravens team that just throttled the defending conference champs. The Titans are playing at home, but that only means they won’t get booed until the 2^nd quarter. This one seems like a no-brainer. I’d double this bet.

Packers (-10.5) @ Panthers

I usually hate laying this much cheddar to any team, but the Cheeseheads will be well-rested and have another week of tape on Cam Newton. A large part of Newton’s success in Week 1 was due to mistakes by an undisciplined Arizona defense. The Packers will likely play Newton the same way they played Vick in the playoffs last year. The biggest difference here is the players around Cam aren’t as good as Vick’s supporting cast in Philly, so they won’t be able to keep the score close. Packers will win this one in a laugher.

OVER (45) on Lions @ Chiefs

The Chiefs are going to miss injured S Berry, as he was quickly developing into one of the league’s better playmakers and was a big part of their surprising playoff run last year. Calvin Johnson and Detroit’s receivers could have a field day. On the other side, the Lions don’t have a linebacker who can come close to covering Jamaal Charles underneath, and Dwayne Bowe could create matchup problems in the secondary. This should be a recipe for a whole lot of points.

2010 record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 record ATS: 4-4
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After a 38-24 drubbing of the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, the Patriots look like a team destined for a deep playoff run. Here are some of the top performers and a look at those who disappointed.

Risers

1. Tom Brady: It was just another day at the office for Tom Terrific. The reigning unanimous MVP, playing without his starting right tackle and a backup center, threw for a MNF-record 517 yards. Brady’s execution of the no-huddle offense and pinpoint accuracy was simply too much for the Dolphins defense to handle.

2. Gronk & Hernandez: These two should open up a law firm (no pun intended, BenJarvus). After exceeding expectations as rookies, the sophomore duo took their game to a new level in the season opener. Gronkowski’s blend of size, power and ability to get open are elite, and Hernandez’s athleticism is unmatched at the position. They combined for 13 catches, 189 yards and two touchdowns.

3. Offensive line: With Sebastian Vollmer out with a back injury, rookie Nate Solder drew the start. While he was supposed to be the swing tackle, the 17^th overall pick was faced with the tough task of shutting down Miami’s sackmaster Cameron Wake. Outside of a questionable holding penalty and a coverage sack, Solder did just that. The 6-foot-8, 319-pounder kept Brady clean in the pocket and neutralized Wake for most of the game. After Dan Koppen went down with a broken ankle, Dan Connolly finished the game at center and was solid as was new right guard Brian Waters.

Fallers

1. Secondary: While Devin McCourty defended a few passes, overall it wasn’t the cleanest performance for a young group. McCourty and Co. didn’t do a good job shutting down Brandon Marshall (seven catches for 139 yards) and gave up a few big plays. Rookie Ras-I Dowling looked solid in his first game, preventing two goal-line touchdown attempts. The safeties didn’t make much of an impact, although Pat Chung was around the ball. But, giving up 416 yards to Chad Henne is unacceptable.

2. New additions: After a poor preseason, Chad Ochocinco’s struggles continued. The veteran wideout caught one pass for 14 yards on only 18 snaps. While some of this can be attributed to the no-huddle offense, Chad needs to get the playbook down if he wants to see significant playing time. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth got some decent push, but recorded only two tackles and no quarterback hits or sacks. His conditioning is still an issue, but I think he’ll begin to make an impact soon.

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With the 2011 regular season fast-approaching, it's time to do a breakdown of the upcoming schedule for the Patriots.  So far, in the first twelve games, I have the Patriots at 11-1.  Here is my breakdown of the final four games of the regular season.

 

Week 14 - Away vs. Washington

At this point in the season, I would expect the Redskins to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  However, that's no reason to take the Skins lightly.  Taking down the Patriots would be a big statement for Washington, so you know they'll be bringing their A-game.  Mike Shanahan is also on the short list of coaches who have been able to go head to head with Belichick and come out on top on more than a few occassions.  Still, I think the Patriots are simply the better team.  I'm racking up another W for the Pats.

Predicted Record: 12-1

 Yes, it’s that time.

No more Brian Hoyer throwing to Buddy Farnham.

No more Darius Butler getting burned by another receiver.

It’s game time.

After months of preparation, grueling practices, a lockout and the additions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth, the Patriots are only a day away from their first step to a fourth championship.

With reigning MVP Tom Brady at the helm, and a wealth of weapons around him, the Pats offense shouldn’t lose a step.

What’s more exciting is the change to the 4-3 defense, which is only enhanced by some great veteran additions in Andre Carter, Shaun Ellis and Haynesworth.

That said, here are some of my predictions for this year.

1. Tom Brady will not throw more than 30 touchdowns.

This isn’t a reflection of Brady as much as it is the diversity of this offense. With a strong stable of running backs and more depth on the offensive line, I see the Patriots maintaining a strong balance between the run and pass. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley look like strong bets to punch the ball in when it’s inside the 5-yard line.

2. The trio of Haynesworth, Carter and Ellis will reach 20 sacks.

Carter may be the most under-the-radar signing on this team. Whenever he’s played in a 4-3, he’s been terrific. He’s in great shape, has plenty of experience and is tough. Ellis brings some of the same traits, but is stouter and can play in both the 3-4 and 4-3. I’m buying in on Haynesworth and think he’ll post at least six sacks in a part-time role.

3. Chad Ochocinco will be fourth on the team in receptions.

Quite simply, Ocho isn’t as good as he thinks. His hands have been terrible and he simply doesn’t separate as well as he used to when he posted 750 receptions with the Bengals. Wes Welker is Brady’s go-to guy, and Deion Branch has terrific chemistry with Tom. And my next prediction….

4. Aaron Hernandez will finish second in receptions.

The second-year tight end is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He has 4.6 speed at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds. He has rare yard-after-the-catch ability and is a solid route runner. Plus, he switched back to his college number, and in his last season at Florida, Hernandez was THE guy.

5. The Patriots defense will not force as many turnovers, but will rank in the top-12 in third-down defense.

With Devin McCourty leading the team with seven interceptions, the Pats were a turnover-based defense last season. While I don’t see them forcing as many turnovers, I think they’ll make a huge leap from being the worst third-down defense in the league. The defensive line rotation is deep with Mark Anderson and Jermaine Cunningham as sub-package rushers, and Jerod Mayo is poised to be playmaker in this new defense. no comments

Tom Brady

Miami's secondary was average last year despite playing a quarter of their games against Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez. I don't think Brady will put up video game numbers since it's Week 1 and Belichick won't want to show too much of his hand, but Brady should still should put up around 280 yards and 2 or more scores. Start him with confidence.

Benjarvis Green-Ellis

The Law Firm scored in both contests against Miami last year, and I'd expect the Pats to emphasize the run to protect Brady early in the season. Look for at least 80+ yards and a score. He could be a Top 10 RB this week.

Danny Woodhead

Woodhead is likely to be on the wrong end of a 65-35 split in terms of touches, but I think the Pats will feature the running game more than usual. He is a reasonable flex option in deeper PPR leagues, but nothing more. Expect around 40-60 total yards and no better than a 50-50 shot at a score.

Wes Welker

Welker has been a serious thorn in the Dolphins' side since they traded him to New England. He's put up 28 catches for 321 yards in his last three games against his old team. Start him with confidence and expect at least 6 catches, 80+ yards and a possible score.

Chad Ochocinco

Belichick has a knack for getting new players involved early in the season, so I could foresee Chad hauling in at least 4-5 passes for 60 yards and a possible score.

Deion Branch

Branch was an extremely cheap buy for most owners, going undrafted in many leagues. He'll have tremendous value in games that the Pats lean on the pass, but that won't be the case this week. You can start him if you're really in a pinch, but don't expect more than 5 or 6 looks and 40 yards.

Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski

These guys are going to be a headache for owners most weeks because their stats will depend entirely on the kinds of formations the Pats use to create match-up problems. Conventional wisdom would suggest Gronkowski would have an edge due to the fact that he'll see the field more if the Patriots emphasize the run, but they may use Hernandez more in the passing game this week because he creates a better match-up against Miami's quick linebackers. I think Hernandez is the better bet for 50+ yards and a score, but Gronk could approach those numbers if the Pats get a big lead early.

Stephen Gostkowski

How much have we missed this guy? It's early in the season, and the Pats' offense may still need a game or two to really start hitting on all cylinders. Don't be surprised if the Ghost hits 2+ FGs and several extra points.

Patriots Defense/ST

Any unit playing against Chad Henne deserves plenty of consideration. The Dolphins should have an average running game, but playing the run should be a strength for the Pats. I expect the Dolphins to score around 14-17 points and give up 3-4 sacks and 1-2 turnovers. Miami is well-coached, so don't expect a special teams score. If there is a score, expect it to be a pick 6.

 Photo Credit: Gary Higgins/The Patriot Ledger

On Monday night, the 2011 season will commence at Sun Life Stadium as the Patriots take on their division rivals, the Miami Dolphins. Most experts have the Pats advancing to the Super Bowl in February at Indianapolis, but we all know the road is not going to be easy. From all accounts, the Patriots have been relatively healthy this week at practice with the exception of RT Sebastian Vollmer, who is fighting a bad back. If he can’t go, look for1st round pick Nate Solder to take over that spot. Before you put this one in the win column for New England, Miami has been a thorn in the side for Tom Brady in hot Florida towards the first two months of the season.

As for the Dolphins, not a lot is expected them from this season. Head Coach Tony Sparano was almost replaced by Jim Harbaugh by his owner behind his back. That shows you the level of confidence, or lack of confidence they have in Sparano. Their signal caller Chad Henne has a confidence issue and last season, he struggled to keep the ball away from the other team. They did sign Reggie Bush to improve the running game, but losing Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to free agency could take its toll. It’s the defense though that is the strength of this team, especially LB Cameron Wake (14 sacks in 2010).

Without further adieu, here are three keys to watch in Week 1:

1. One Running Back Short of a Pair: There is no Ricky-Ronnie combination in Miami this year and they might not have their power running back for this time. 2^nd Round pick Daniel Thomas out of Kansas State might miss the game. He tweaked his hamstring that he hurt in the preseason. If he can’t go, Larry Johnson gets the start. Yes, the Larry Johnson that was great in KC, but only had five carries for two yards last season! Reggie Bush is a good running back, but he is not a number one rusher despite the change of scenery. The Pats were a top ten rush defense last season and they will make Chad Henne have to win this football game.

2. The Brady-Ocho connection: With the exception of the Lions’ debacle, you can say Tom Brady had a very solid preseason. However, with the exception of the touchdown against Tampa Bay, Ochocinco was no bueno in the preseason. He dropped a ton of balls and it has taken him a while to get down the system. Miami has some decent cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, but they do not obtain interceptions so that helps Brady in this game. I don’t expect it to happen here, so look for a lot of passes up the middle to Gronkowski and Hernandez.

3. Waking Up the O-Line: I talked about Cameron Wake in the introduction and I think he could wreak havoc on this offensive line. If Vollmer can’t play, putting Solder at RT is going to be a huge problem going up against the man with fourteen sacks last year. You know Mike Nolan will line the two up one-on-one if that is the case. This is where veteran Brian Waters will have to help ease Nate into the game. The Pats kept him in check last year though (9 tackles, 1 sack in 2 games). He will get a sack or two, but hopefully for the Pats, it is not a game-changing sack.

Prediction: This game has the potential to be a blowout, but I just do not see it. This game reminds me too much of the opener in 2009 when the lowly Buffalo Bills came into Foxboro. Trent Edwards had one of his best games of his career along with Fred Jackson. If not for a Leodis McKelvin fumble, the Patriots lose that game. That being said, I think this game is a close game for 3 ½ quarters.

Chad Henne had a decent preseason and he seems to have a good chemistry with Brandon Marshall. It probably won’t feel like a home game for the Fins, but if Reggie Bush does well, they can waste some clock.

However, I like the Patriots in this football game. They were one of the best teams last year in forcing turnovers, Last season, Henne was sacked five times and intercepted four times to go with his 65 QB rating. That is pretty ugly! He makes the huge mistake that helps Brady and the Pats pull away in the 4^th quarter.

Patriots 30 Dolphins 20

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Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session.  Up this week is Bloguin's own Phins Phocus.  Cody Straam, the site's lead blogger, was kind enough to answer our questions this week.  Let's get to it!

1. On a scale of 1-10, where is your confidence level in QB Chad Henne? Does he have enough talent around him to get the job done on offense?

I would say about a six. He certainly looked much improved in the preseason playing in Brian Daboll’s new offense. I think Reggie Bush will also benefit Checkdown Chad, as a guy who can turn a simple pass in the flat into big yardage. Not to mention, Henne finally displayed some encouraging leadership qualities during the lockout, leading player-organized workouts.

But I still have a hard time believing he’s put some of his bad habits in the rear-view mirror. Staring down receivers has been his biggest fault thus far, and even with the progress, we’ve still seen some of that this year. He also seemingly lacks any real fire or competitive streak, which has deemed him the nickname “The Robot.” All the great quarterbacks in this league seem to be of the vocal, fiery variety. Henne’s not that guy.

And ultimately the continued struggles of the interior offensive line could mean Henne is going to have to carry this offense at times. That may become too much pressure to handle. But the hope in Miami is that an improved Henne to go along with a top five defense could lead to a return to winning ways.

 

Once again, the heated Pick 'em competition is back on Foxboro Blog!  Our staff will be making their picks on five critical games each week. To avoid any bias, you won't find our picks for the Patriots game in this spot.  Instead, we'll focus on important AFC matchups, or occasionally a big-time NFC powerhouse matchup like tonight's opener.  

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
NO @ GB
IND @ HOU
BUF @ KC
PIT @ BAL
DAL @ NYJ
Last Week	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Record	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0