Each week leading up to the draft, the Foxboro Blog crew will spend a week breaking down a position on the Patriots' roster.  We'll start with a quick overview and then move onto a discussion involving potential draftees at that spot as well as free-agents that the Patriots may pursue.  Up this week are the wide receivers...

2010 Recap:  It's not often that an offense loses it's #1 wide receiver and ends up becoming even more potent in his absence.  Yet that's exactly what happened when the Patriots traded Randy Moss back to the Minnesota Vikings after Week 4.  The tumultuous wideout mananged to wear out his welcome early on in the year.  While nothing we ever officially made public, there was rumblings that Moss was unhappy with his contract situation and the playcalling, and even had a heated confrontation with coach Bill O'Brien after the team's Monday Night victory in Miami. 

With Moss, the Patriots managed to put together some impressive scoring performances against Cincinatti, Buffalo, and Miami, but without him they turned into a nearly unstoppable force.  While the tight ends and running backs, certainly contributed to the offense that routinely put up 30+ points each game, the recievers were no slackers either.  Bill Belichick brought back former Super Bowl XXXIX MVP Deion Branch in a trade with Seattle, and he and Tom Brady quickly recaptured their magic connection.  Welker continued to look stronger as the weeks went on and he gaind distance from his recovery from a torn ACL. Brandon Tate, while not necessarily a major producer in the passing game, had some key kickoff returns that he took to the house.  Unfortunately, all the positive momentum came to a jolting halt in the playoffs against the Jets.  New York's corners were able to play some tight defense and shut down the passing game.  With Brady's targets locked up, the offense sputtered and, well, we all know what happened...

Overall, the Patriots offense shredded defenses by utilizing a number of different looks and keeping the opposition on their toes.  It truly was a "team" effort with all facets of the offense contributing.  However, it's safe to say that the passing attack looked as good as it had since the legendary 2007 year.

If you could only sign: A) Logan Mankins for $8 million/year or more for 6 years, or B) Matt Light for $4 million/year or less for 2 years, which contract would you choose?

Stephen:  This is a tough call - Mankins is easily the Patriots' best offensive lineman, and is a top-3 guard in the league. However, it is simply too cost prohibitive to sign him for left tackle-type money at $8 million or more a year.  Light is still a serviceable player who should come back for a manageable salary. If they let Mankins go, they absolutely need to invest at least one, if not two, high draft picks on an interior lineman. Light could be a holdover while the team grooms another tackle for the future - whether it be Sebastian Vollmer going to the left side or an early-round draft pick.

In the NFL collective bargaining negotiations, do you side more with the owners or the players?

Jason:  I'm anything but a union man, but I am sympathetic to the players during this whole lockout fiasco (or at least as sympathetic as one can feel for players earning, at minimum, an annual salary that could get me completely out of debt and buy me a new house by 2012). I think the whole argument that the owners need an extra billion dollars to help "grow the game" is laughable, especially when they aren't willing to disclose any of their financial information. If they really need that money, why not ask a few small-market teams like the Jaguars or Vikings to open the books and demonstrate that need? The silence from the owners on that issue is deafening. The players union has expressed a willingness to compromise and offered proposals to serve as a starting point, but the owners haven't budged. From what I've seen, it's more of a hostage situation than a true negotiation.

After the combine, there were definitely some players who rose up draft boards. At the same time, a few others slipped with underwhelming performances. The top 10 isn't set in stone at all, as there is no consensus top player. However, here's my best shot at how I think the draft will unfold.

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

There really is no consensus top pick in the draft. This very well could be Fairely or Bowers, but with a new regime there is often a new quarterback. Newton has incredible physical tools and his play last year proved he has immense ability. If the Panthers feel his character concerns are not an issue, he has to be the pick.

2. Denver Broncos – Nick Fairely, DT, Auburn

Despite weighing in an inch shorter and seven pounds lighter than his college listing, Fairely still put up some solid numbers at the combine. However, it was his play last year against SEC opponents that make him a top prospect. While Dareus is making a push to be the top defensive tackle off the board, Fairely provides a better pass rush, which would go well with Pro Bowler Elvis Dumervil.

3. Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

The Bills have not been able to stop the run for years. Dareus is an absolute beast at 6-foot-3, 319 pounds with 4.9 speed. He is an explosive athlete who knows how to take on double teams and is a very good run stopper. While it isn’t as flashy a pick as Blaine Gabbert or Patrick Peterson, he would fit right in next to Kyle Williams to give the Bills a terrific pair of interior linemen.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

This pick all depends on what happens with Carson Palmer. If he’s somehow released or traded, Blaine Gabbert will be the pick. But what better way to entice Palmer to stay then to take the top receiver in the draft? Green may not have tested as well at the combine as Julio Jones, but he has far superior hands, route running and big-play ability.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

Since the end of the season, Miller has only boosted his draft stock. He may in fact be one of the top-3 prospects in this draft, but his best fit is as an outside linebacker in a 3-4. Miller has tremendous speed, quickness and agility and should be a pass-rushing force from day one. The Cardinals have the worst pair of starting outside linebackers in the league, so Miller would be an immediate upgrade.

With the NFL Combine wrapping up, it is time to look at a few new prospects the Patriots could have an eye on come NFL Draft day:

NFLDaily.com

Pick #28 – Nate Solder, OL, Colorado

Their Take: The Patriots address the offensive side of the ball with the top tackle left on the board.

My Take: The site has Aldon Smith taken with pick 17, but Solder is a not a player that is high on my Big Board. He did not have a good Senior Bowl and his 40 time at the Combine was not great. A lot of mock drafts have him somewhere around the 15-20 slot. He started off his college career as a tight end, so he is still learning the game, which New England could afford, but maybe in the second round. Gabe Carimi and Mike Pouncey who we discussed in previous mock draft recaps would be better picks at the offensive line position.

 

 

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Despite the fact that March was supposed to be a quiet month for the Patriots due to the uncertain NFL labor situation, just two days into the month, we've already had two fairly big announcments.  The first was that the Patriots have signed ex-Buffalo Bill defensive lineman, Marcus Stroud to a two-year deal.  Stroud was cut by the Bills after a lackluster season that didn't justify the $4.5M that he was due to receive in 2011.  This signing by the Pats likely signals a move away from free-agent Gerard Warren.   With Vince Wilfork at nose tackle, Ty Warren set to return, and now Stroud in the fold, its' hard to imagine them bringing back the veteran Warren, especially with New England being likely to invest a 1st or 2nd round pick on a DE.

Also of note is that guard Stephen Neal has decided to retire after an illustrious 10 year career.  The loss of Neal, coupled with the tumultuous Logan Mankins situation, makes the need to draft an interior lineman all the more pressing for New England.   Dan Connolly should be able to step in and fill the void left by Neal, but it's clear that the Patriots need to replenish the guard position.  I would expect Neal's retirement to cause a big uptick in the number of mock drafts that have the Patriots selecting Mike Pouncey with one of their two first round picks. 

A year ago, most people thought the Patriots would target a pass rusher with their first-round pick.

What did we learn? Bill Belichick is unpredictable.

Instead he selected Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty, a player known as a special teams demon with good athleticism.

Boy did he prove us wrong.

McCourty turned out to be the best player in the young secondary, snaring a team-high seven interceptions which earned him a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie.

As good as he was, the rest of the corners were inconsistent at best. 2009 second-rounder Darius Butler couldn’t keep his starting job, Kyle Arrington was an overachiever and Jonathan Wilhite went on IR.

While I don’t expect the Patriots to select another cornerback in the first round, I could see them targeting one in the second or third round with their extra picks.

The draft’s two elite prospects – LSU’s Patrick Peterson and Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara – are expected to be top 10 picks, but here some other options the Patriots could have on their board:

1. Brandon Harris, Miami: The Florida native arrived at “The U” as a five-star recruit and was immediately thrown into the fire. Although he struggled as a freshman, he had a great sophomore season with 15 passes defended and two interceptions. Harris earned second-team All-ACC honors as a junior after batting down eight passes and picking off one. While he is small at 5-foot-9, 191 pounds, Harris has good speed (4.43) and agility. He is also a dedicated teammate and is passionate for the game, which are definitely qualities that the Patriots covet. Harris may have slipped out of the first round due to the depth at other positions, but he could be available early in round two.

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Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK)

Asomugha is arguably the biggest prize of the 2011 offseason, but I find it unlikely that the Patriots will be the team to sign him. The Patriots won’t pay him $10 million a year when they already invested around $4-5 million in Bodden and a first round pick in McCourty and have bigger needs elsewhere on the team. If the Patriots did decide to make a big splash in the free agent pool, Asomugha would be high on New England’s list of potential targets.

Drayton Florence (BUF)

The Patriots are an attractive option for many aging veterans who want one last shot at a ring (Fred Taylor, Junior Seau, Joey Galloway, etc.). The Pats also have a reputation for taking talented players away from division rivals. Florence would fit the bill on both counts. Florence is an average starter, but he would excel as a nickel corner and may even be able to move over to safety in certain packages. The Bill may look to get younger at corner this offseason, so there is a decent chance he will be available.

Fabian Washington (BAL)

The top three cornerbacks of the Ravens are all free agents, and Washington appears likely to be the odd man out. He struggled in 2010 and was eventually benched due to a few mental lapses, but he has plenty of experience as a starter and could provide veteran leadership in the secondary. The biggest hurdles to him playing in New England could be price and playing time, as he will likely expect to start and earn a starter’s salary. If winning is more important to him than money or playing time, he could definitely bolster the defense.

Brandon Carr (KC)

Carr was a very pleasant surprise for the Chiefs and held his own while facing a larger percentage of targets across from emerging star Brandon Flowers. He has adequate speed and ball skills, and his size is a plu, allowing him to play physical against larger receivers. Carr is a restricted free agent, but if the tender is not outrageous, it wouldn’t be out of the question for the Pats to make an offer. If he’s tender at a 2^nd round level, he would likely be a better value than any corner that would be available at the 60^th pick.

Richard Marshall (CAR)

Marshall may have some hurt feelings after not receiving a contract extension he requested (loudly) prior to the season, so there is a reasonable chance he could be available. He is tough in run support and decent in coverage. He would push Bodden for a spot in the starting lineup and might be able to earn a starting role against certain opponents, especially if the other AFC East teams continue to move toward implementing a run-heavy attack.

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Each week leading up to the draft, the Foxboro Blog crew will spend a week breaking down a position on the Patriots' roster.  We'll start with a quick overview and then move onto a discussion involving potential draftees at that spot as well as free-agents that the Patriots may pursue.  Up this week are the cornerbacks...

2010 Recap:  The 2010 Draft got off to a surprising start when the Patriots selected cornerback Devin McCourty out of Rutgers with their first round selection.  Many people were expecting Belichick to go with a linebacker like Sergio Kindle or choose wide receiver Dez Bryant as an "heir" to Randy Moss.  It is safe to say that McCourty was far off the radar for most Pats fans, and the pick was met with a fair amount of skepticism.  Little did anyone know that Belichick had made one of his best first-round selections of his career.  Forget for a moment that McCourty wound up as a rookie Pro-Bowler, and just concentrate on how devastated the Patriots secondary would have been in 2010 were he not a part of the team.   In training camp, the New England's top CB, Leigh Bodden was put on IR for a torn rotator cuff.  Second-year player, Darius Butler, who everyone expected to make a big leap last season, seemed to regress and quickly lost his starting spot.  Without McCourty, the Patriots would have been sending out Kyle Arrington and...    yeah...  week after week.  As it stood, the Patriots gave up a ton of yards in 2010.  I can't imagine how the season would have played out without McCourty.

To sum up 2010 for the cornerback crew, McCourty shone brightly, and Arrignton played admirably alongside him.  There were certainly a fair amount of bumps in the road, given the relative inexperience at the position, but the secondary was able to bend and not break. Overall, their performance this past season gives Patriots fans a lot of reasons to be optimistic heading forward. 

What are your thoughts on a 18-game schedule?

Stephen:  As much as I’d love to watch another two regular season games every year, when it comes to the players’ safety, I don’t think an 18-game schedule would be a good idea. When looking at the Colts, Packers, and Seahawks and even to some degree the Patriots, you can see how big of an impact injuries have on a roster. The game is becoming increasingly violent despite the league’s attempts to get rid of helmet-to-helmet hits and unnecessary roughness. This is a tough call for me because there’s nothing I enjoy more than tuning on the NFL on Sundays, but when it comes to the safety of all the players in the league, I just can’t see how an 18-game schedule wouldn’t be a huge injury risk.
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