Last Monday night, the New England Patriots not only made a statement to the rest of the NFL in their 42-14 win over the Houston Texans, but they made a statement to this writer right here who picked New England to lose for only the 2nd time in his three years at this website. Tom Brady threw for four touchdowns as the Patriots now control their own destiny for at least the number two seed in the AFC Playoffs and a 1st round bye. After Monday’s matchup was an AFC Championship Preview, the matchup this Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview for early February.

Once again, head coach Jim Harbaugh has the San Francisco 49ers playing at a high level in the NFC with a record of 9-3-1. However, they still have not clinched their division yet with the Seattle Seahawks nipping at their heels. Also, all the talk around San Francisco has been about their quarterback situation. About a month ago, Harbaugh benched Alex Smith for second year quarterback Colin Kaepernick after Smith suffered a concussion. Even when Smith was healthy, Harbaugh stuck with the more mobile, exciting playmaker in Kaepernick. San Fran is 3-1 in games he has started, but time will tell if this situation pans out like the Patriots had with Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady back in 2001. San Fran still has a stacked defense and they can run the football as a physical offense.

Here are my three keys to this potential Super Bowl Preview:

QB Tom Brady

It’s tough to ever advise benching Brady in a fantasy league, but owners who have a top-rate backup with a better matchup could at least consider the possibility. The 49ers are tough against the pass, and this game doesn’t figure to be a points bonanza. Brady is probably still good for 280 and 2 scores, but that is not an automatic start for most teams who are still playing meaningful games.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Lloyd was the team’s top receiver last week, and with Welker dropping everything in sight, I wouldn’t bet against him being among their top two pass-catchers again this week. I’d expect him to haul in 5 passes for around 70 yards, and he’s at least a 50-50 bet to score. Welker should see more than his fair share of targets, so I think his statline will be pretty similar to the projection for Lloyd.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead

While I have been Ridley’s biggest backer since the preseason (I projected that he’d have over 1000 yards and 10+ scores, thank you), I don’t like him in this matchup at all. The 49ers are extremely tough against the run, so he’s probably not going to get more than 70 yards and an outside shot at a score. Vereen and Woodhead are both safe bets to pick up a few yards on draws, screens and dump-offs. Probably 70 more yards between the two, and I could envision one of them stumbling into a score. You could do worse in a flex spot, particularly in a PPR league.

TE Aaron Hernandez

Who needs Gronk? Hernandez was targeted a team-high 11 times last week, and he converted two scores. He’ll draw plenty of looks from Brady in this one as well. Pencil him in for 7 catches, 75 yards and a score.

New England Defense/Special Teams

I don’t hate this play this week, but I don’t love it. Kaepernick could make a rookie mistake or two, so there is a possibility of a few turnovers and a couple sacks. But the 49ers offense likes to grind out yards and minimize risk while keeping the clock rolling, and even moreso when they’re facing an elite QB on the other sideline. I could see the 49ers scoring 20 points in this one. Middle-of-the-road scoring in most leagues.

Week 15 will go a long way towards deciding the 2012 playoff picture, and the same can probably be said about the 2012 pick 'em game as well.  There's a ton of huge matchups and, unlike last week, the panel is split on many of them.  The margin of error is razor thin as we head into the final stretch of the regular season.  Rick has a one game lead, while Jason, Raj, and myself are all tied in 2nd.  Stephen has crawled out of his early season slump with some solid picks the past few weeks, but one has to wonder if there's simply too much ground to make up at this point.  He could, however, cut the deficit to 7 if he nails all of his picks this week.

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
IND @ HOU
GB @ CHI
PIT @ DAL
DEN @ BAL
PHI @ CIN
NYG @ ATL
NYJ @ TEN
Last Week	4-3	4-3	3-4	4-3	4-3
Record	58-33	58-33	58-33	59-32	49-42

The Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites as they host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 15.

Maybe I’m just being cynical, but this spread seems to be a bit inflated by the outcome of the Houston game. Don’t get me wrong here. Monday night’s massacre of the Texans certainly gave me an erection with such long-lasting qualities that I probably should have called a doctor. But comparing a Houston defense that had been blistered by the pass to this 49ers defense that ranks second in the league is more than a bit problematic. The Texans’ defense is a bit of smoke and mirrors beyond JJ Watt; the 49ers are the real deal on defense from top to bottom. The 49ers have faced some quality passing teams like the Packers, Saints, Giants and Lions, and they have done a decent job of holding down the fort.

And let’s not forget that New England hasn’t faced a quarterback with the mobility of Colin Kaepernick in a really long time (for those of you saying Tim Tebow last year, please note I said “quarterback” and not “fullback in denial”). Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree should be able to find at least a little room in the secondary, and I’m sure Randy Moss will not be lacking for motivation against his old team on the national stage. If their second-year signal-caller can buy time with his feet, the 49ers could open up a few big plays down the field to go with an above-average rushing attack.

While the rest of America bets on New England to cover, I’m going to take the 49ers and the points.

Other Lines I Like

I love weeks like the one coming up.  Ten of our Top 12 teams are pitted against each other in battles that will send teams flying up and down the board or cementing their spot as we head towards the post-season. 

#1 - New England Patriots

I've had the Patriots up here for several weeks now.  Finally the rest of the world is catching up to me.  I'll knock this team down when it deserves to be knocked down, but since Week 12, this team has been playing lights-out football.  The scary part is that they've been doing it largerly without Rob Gronkowski.

Last Week: 1      Change: 0     Record: 10-3       Next Game: vs. 49ers

#2 - San Francisco 49ers

A lot of teams could have taken this spot.  But I decided to make things interesting by setting up a #1 vs. #2 battle on Sunday Night.  A bit fabricated?  Maybe.  But tell me which other team deserves to be sitting here instead of the Niners?

Last Week: 6   Change: +4      Record: 9-3-1     Next Game: @ Patriots

#3 - Denver Broncos

Denver has yet to beat a truly legit team, which is why I just can't put them at #2.  They have yet to beat a team currently in the Top 12.  I have a feeling that will change this week in Baltimore.

Last Week: 3    Change: 0       Record: 10-3       Next Game: @ Ravens

#4 - Green Bay Packers

The Packers took care of the Lions, but not as handily as they should have.  Now they can take care of the NFC North by snuffing out Chicago this week.

Last Week: 5      Change: +1     Record: 9-4     Next Game: @ Bears

The New England Patriots entered Monday night as 5.5-point favorites against the AFC's top team, the Houston Texans. 

Within 13 minutes, Tom Brady had already thrown two touchdown passes, including a beautiful 37-yard strike to Brandon Lloyd on play action, to put the Pats up 14-0. 

By halftime, New England was up 21-0. 

Although the offense struggled for most of the third quarter, the offensive onslaught picked back up in the fourth, as New England piled on another two TDs for good measure. 

However, as efficient as the offense was, it was New England's defense that stole the show Monday night. 

Facing two of the league's most explosive players in Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, Jerod Mayo and Co. held the Texans' offense to just 100 rushing yards and 14 points. 

With their seventh straight win, there's no question the Patriots are the No. 1 team in the league. 

Let's take a look at this week's risers and fallers. 

Risers

1. Tom Brady, QB: In the biggest game of the season, New England's best player put on a vintage performance. Though Brady was sacked just once, he definitely felt some heat from J.J. Watt and Co., but came through with 296 passing yards and four touchdowns. The MVP candidate constantly found open holes in the Texans' defense, utilizing weapons like Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez at will. 

2. Aaron Hernandez, TE: No Gronk? No matter. New England's other tight end more than picked up the slack for his missing mate, racking up eight catches for 58 yards and a pair of scores in the 42-14 blowout. The third-year Florida product proved too quick for Houston's heavier linebackers and too strong for their defensive backs. A healthy Hernandez makes all the difference for New England. 

3. Brandon Lloyd, WR: Fans and analysts have been frustrated with Lloyd's lack of big plays in his first year as a Patriot, but the veteran wideout made good on his promise for a big performance against Houston. Lloyd displayed his trademark hands, route-running ability and speed in his best game as a Patriot, totaling seven catches for 89 yards and a score. He also scooped up a Danny Woodhead fumble in the end zone for another score. 

4. Vince Wilfork, DT: Few defensive tackles have as big of an impact in a game as Big Vince. The 325-pound manbeast ate up Houston's interior offensive line all night, racking up four tackles and a sack. His strength, quickness and tenacity make him a near impossible one-on-one matchup, and Houston's inability to block Wilfork was the main reason the Patriots limited Arian Foster to a mere 46 rushing yards. 

5. Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower, LBs: The dynasty teams of '01, '03 and '04 were built on the linebackers, and it appears things have come full circle. Mayo, the 10th overall pick in 2008, has grown into a force in New England's 4-3 defense. The former Tennessee Volunteer has finally made more impact plays in his new role as weakside linebacker. Paired with Hightower, who recorded six tackles (2.0 for loss) and two quarterback hits, New England has two tremendous outside linebackers to complement run-stuffer Brandon Spikes. 

6. Secondary: Whether it was Kyle Arrington, Devin McCourty, Steve Gregory or Alfonzo Dennard, New England's much-maligned secondary finally put together a complete performance. All four players made impact plays and helped limit Houston to just 223 passing yards. Arrington and Dennard got physical with Andre Johnson, limiting him to a quiet eight catches for just 95 yards. McCourty recorded his fourth pick of the season early in the game, and Gregory's steady tackling was clutch. 

Fallers

1. Sebastian Vollmer, RT: After a dominant start to the season, Vollmer's play has fallen off the past two weeks. The 6'8" giant has struggled with speed rushers and certainly didn't have a stellar performance last night. Although the Pats held J.J. Watt without a sack, pass defended or tackle for loss, it's tough to say Vollmer dominated the All-Pro candidate. 

2. Wes Welker, WR: It's getting harder and harder to say that drops are rare for Wes. Sure, he makes some tough catches in the clutch, but New England's top receiver dropped or missed at least five catchable balls Monday night. The Patriots need him to be more consistent in catching the football.

I actually don't have much time to give a full recap, but they say a video is worth a million words...

How important is Monday Night's game for the Patriots?  How do you predict the game will play out?

Jason:  Monday night's game is a big one, no question. But I don't think any regular season game will make or break the Pats at this point. Five of the last seven Super Bowl champs have started out in the Wild Card round. Taking another step toward a bye would be a nice luxury, but even if the Pats lost every other game the rest of the regular season, they're still hosting a playoff game against an opponent that shouldn't be terribly imposing (most likely the Steelers or Colts).

Rick:  In my opinion, this game is very crucial for the Patriots in terms of their playoff implications. A win could get them in a good position to overtake Houston and still have a chance at home-field advantage. On the other hand, a loss could drop them below the Broncos and Ravens in the AFC playoff picture and put them in jeopardy of having to play on Wild Card Weekend. I expect this game to be a high scoring game because we have seen over the past couple of weeks, you can throw on the Texan secondary. However, Jonathan Joseph is going to return to the lineup for Houston coming off of a hamstring injury. Both teams will be on their A game, but I expect J.J Watt and Antonio Smith to take advantage of a banged up Patriots’ offensive line that gave up 4 sacks to the Miami Dolphins last week. Can the Patriots also keep up in the secondary with Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels? That remains to be seen. If New England wins this game, they are the team to beat in the AFC. However, I think with all the injuries, I am going for only the second time on this site to pick against the Pats in this one because their front seven matches up better with the Pats’ offensive line.

Stephen: Monday's showdown against the Houston Texans shouldn't be taken lightly, but I don't think it's a must-win. New England would have a chance at the No. 1 seed if it beats Houston, but if not, everything should be okay. The Pats should use this as a barometer to see how they stack up to the Texans and use it as a learning experience for the playoffs. Ultimately, I think New England wins a close game because of home-field advantage, and I haven't seen Matt Schaub rise in big games consistently enough in his career. It'll be interesting to see how the Patriots' offense stacks up minus Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.

Raj: The Patriots have already locked up the AFC East. If Pats fans are worried about that aspect of the game, then this game has virtually no meaning because the Patriots will have a shot at another Super Bowl run. However, in my opinion, this game is the first step towards earning the top seed. Baltimore lost for us last week and Houston leads by a hair. The Patriots have to win this game because if they do, then the race for the top seed gets really interesting. I also think the Colts can help us out by beating the Texans at least once. But New England has to win this one and from those expectation, I think they'll pull it off. Ridley and Welker should and will have a great game. If the Pats defense can hold off Foster, Johnson, and Daniels, we should be well on our way.

Derek: Here's a fun fact for you.  The Patriots have gone to the Super Bowl seven times.  Six of those times (1985 being the lone exception), they had a first-round bye.   On the flip side, the Patriots have also had a first-round bye seven times.  Six of those times (2010 being the lone exception), they went to the Super Bowl.  Is it impossible for the Patriots to make it to New Orleans if they play during Wild Card Weekend?  Of course not.  But history suggests that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have a track record of making the most of that week of rest.  If the Patriots lose on Sunday, they can pretty much kiss their shot at the bye goodbye. 

Monday Night (and the three weeks that follow) are really all about setting this team up for post-season success.  Four more wins will almost guarantee them that week off.  Instead of traveling to Houston, Denver, or Baltimore, one of those teams would be coming to New England.  It puts this team a single home win away from playing for the AFC Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl. 

The four people above me are right.  Monday Night is not a must-win situation.  It is, however, a game that would be very, very, very nice for the Patriots to win.  Taking the current momentum of both teams into account, I like New England's chances of doing just that.

The New England Patriots are coming off of winning their 9th AFC title in ten years in their 23-13 win over the Miami Dolphins. It wasn’t a pretty win, but it was a win that showed the Patriots could get the job done even when Brady wasn’t on his best performance. Now, the Pats will set their eyes on loftier goals like seeding in the upcoming AFC playoffs. They will do that despite losing wide receiver Julian Edelman to a foot injury for the rest of the season.

This Monday night, the Patriots will play what could be an AFC Championship Preview against the Houston Texans. Houston has the best record in the AFC at 11-1, but this game on Monday is seen by many experts as the biggest game in their franchise history. For Matt Schaub, it is a chance to prove himself considering that he was not healthy during the team’s run to the Divisional Playoffs last year. Plus, you have to account for J.J Watt and his ability to tip passes like it is nobody’s business. If the Texans can win this game, you can officially say the road to New Orleans goes through Reliant Stadium. But, even though the Patriots will still be without Rob Gronkowski, they will likely have defensive lineman Chandler Jones and offensive lineman Logan Mankins back for this crucial game.

Here are my keys to the Monday Night Mayhem in Foxboro:

QB Tom Brady

The Texans haven’t been stalwarts against the pass, giving up 230+ yards per game and 20 scores on the season. Opening up running lanes against this defense will be tough, so don’t be surprised to see Brady put the ball in the air at least 40 times. That should equate to 300+ yards and at least two scores.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

I see no good reason to bench either of these guys this week. Welker is always a safe bet for 100 yards, and he could easily find the end zone. With Edelman headed to the IR, Lloyd should bounce back from a down week last week by finding the end zone to go along with 70+ yards.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead

While Ridley has been the lead horse in this rushing attack for most of the year, I don’t expect him to have a big game against a stout Texans run D. Anything over about 75 yards would be gravy, but he could find the end zone on a short score. Vereen and Woodhead should see more work. Expect Vereen to rack up at least 50 yards total yards. Woodhead could see more action as well, so pencil him in for 40 yards too.

TE Aaron Hernandez

Houston hasn’t been great when asked to defend the tight end this year, so Hernandez could be primed for a big game. He’ll see plenty of snaps and could approach 100 yards and a score.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This is the one area that brings the most concern. The Texans are effective running the ball, and they have one of the best playaction games in the league. They don’t put up video game numbers like the Patriots, but they keep the sticks moving and avoid costly mistakes. Don’t expect more than one sack and one turnover. They should score in the 20s.