A number of analysts and bloggers have raised the prospects of the Patriots trading backup QB Brian Hoyer. While the current lock prevents teams from trading players, it’s worth considering what kind of value the Patriots would be looking for in order to move Hoyer and what teams might be willing to swing a deal.

What value would it take for the Patriots to trade Hoyer?

The draft pick value of recently traded quarterbacks varies wildly. Established starters like Donovan McNabb and Jay Cutler brought their original teams a strong return, while others have been traded for mid-round picks. Of the QBs traded in the past four or five years, Hoyer’s situation most closely resembles that of Charlie Whitehurst. Whitehurst was an untested backup for the Chargers who showed promise in limited playing time and preseason action. The Chargers got a third round pick and moved up in the second round (this value is in the same ballpark as the deals that sent Matt Cassel and Matt Schaub to different teams in recent years).

I’m not sure the Patriots could get quite as much value out of Hoyer. To seriously consider a deal, New England would probably need to get a late second or early third. That is likely the maximum that any team would be willing to give up.

What teams might be interested in Hoyer?

The most quarterback-needy teams are the Cardinals, Bills, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings, Panthers and Jaguars. You could probably add the Redskins, Dolphins and Bengals into that bunch since their incumbent QBs are on shaky ground. Of those teams, the least likely to trade for Hoyer would probably be the Seahawks and Redskins since they recently gave up some valuable draft stock for QBs. The Panthers have no second round pick and may have too many holes to be filled to consider giving up any more picks. It is unlikely, though not impossible, that the Pats would trade a young QB within the division, so the Bills and Dolphins would be longshots.

There are around five or six quarterbacks from the current draft class (Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Mallett, Kaepernick) who could be drafted in the first two or three rounds. All of these players have a number of question marks as potential starters. The teams that are built to win now (Arizona, San Francisco, Minnesota, and, to a lesser extent, Washington) could easily consider Hoyer a safer bet than the second tier of rookies.

What could prevent the Patriots from trading Hoyer?

Other than the lockout, the biggest hurdle to trading Hoyer might be the lack of options to back up Brady. While most teams typically carry three quarterbacks, the Patriots thought enough of Hoyer to carry just two all season. The Patriots signed second-year Tennessee product Jonathan Crompton to a futures contract earlier this year after giving him a year on the practice squad, but he could hardly be counted on if Brady sustained a serious injury.

The other big issue could be the new collective bargaining agreement. Under the old CBA, players with three or fewer years of service with an expiring contract are restricted free agents. If the new CBA has a similar provision, the Patriots could keep Hoyer through 2011, give him a second-round tender and try to trade him in 2012. That would also give the team an opportunity to see what they have in Crompton before getting rid of Hoyer.

The lockout creates even serious complications. Unless there is a labor deal before the draft, the Pats would have to get a 2012 draft pick, which would skew the value a bit. They also would not know Hoyer’s fate prior to this year’s draft, so they couldn’t draft a replacement without potentially wasting a pick. If the new CBA isn’t reached until mid-summer or later, QB-needy teams would need to fill that position in the draft to avoid being stuck without a signal-caller. A late CBA agreement would also make teams wary of trading for a new QB who wouldn’t have time to get acclimated to a new system.

My Conclusion

In a normal offseason, it is likely Hoyer would generate enough interest for the Patriots to receive a few reasonable offers. However, due to the lockout, the chances of Hoyer getting traded this offseason are probably no better than 50-1.

The Dolphins need to rebuild their entire running game. The interior offensive line was a joke in 2010 and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will both likely sign elsewhere. Having said that, though, you can’t become a legitimate title contender in this league anymore without a franchise quarterback. While Chad Henne hasn’t totally squandered away his chance to be the guy in Miami, his lack of progress in 2010 means that the Dolphins need to find a new potential candidate to be the long-term solution. In my mind, the best case scenario for the Dolphins would be trading down to the late first round, picking up a 2nd round pick, and drafting either Ryan Mallett or Christian Ponder. Mallett is the more physically gifted of the two and the best pure passer in this year’s class, but Ponder on the other hand, is the more accurate, intelligent, and trustworthy option.

I don’t think it will have much of an impact. I wouldn’t even be surprised if it brought the team closer together to be honest. During the whole ordeal, the players were very outspoken in their support for Tony in interviews and on twitter. It’s clear that the players love playing for Tony, and I don’t think the opinion of the owner and general manager will sway those feelings at all.

With the league’s reigning MVP at the helm and signed to a long-term deal, it’s highly unlikely the Patriots address the quarterback position early in the draft.

Backup Brian Hoyer seems to be generating trade interest, so if he’s shipped out, it would make sense to draft a developmental player for life after Brady.

While I don’t expect the Pats to target any of the first-round quarterbacks, here are some mid- to late-round options that could be on their radar.

1. Andy Dalton, TCU: The former Horned Frog is gaining steam as a high second-round pick. He possesses prototypical size at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds and is a proven winner. He also completed over 61 percent of his passes the last two years and threw 71 touchdowns to only 30 interceptions. His accuracy and low turnover ratio would seem to make him an ideal quarterback in the Patriots’ system. I don’t see the Pats pulling the trigger as quarterback is low on their list of needs, but he’d be a nice value in the second round.

2. Greg McElroy, Alabama: When it comes to winning, few college quarterbacks can match McElroy’s resume. The former Crimson Tide starter never lost a game in high school and led Alabama to the 2009 national championship. While he doesn’t have great athletic ability, he is extremely intelligent and accurate. He increased his completion percentage from 60.9 to 70.9 as a senior, and threw 39 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions during his career. His lack of elite arm strength and physical attributes will cause him to go later in the draft, but he’d be an excellent backup with potential spot-start ability.

3. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: Touted as a second- or third-round prospect, Stanzi’s stock has taken a bit of a dip in the offseason. However, he still is a solid prospect who would be a good value later in the draft. He has three years of starting experience, has good size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds) and had a great senior season, throwing for 25 touchdowns and 3,004 yards. As a junior, he threw 15 interceptions and completed only 56 percent of his passes which aren’t impressive. Could be an option in the fourth round.

4. Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin: Playing in a run-based offense, Tolzien still put together two solid seasons as a starter for the Badgers. The 6-foot-2, 212-pounder completed nearly 73 percent of his passes as a senior and had a touchdown/interception ratio of 16:6. He has decent mobility and pocket awareness, but below average arm strength which limits his ability to stretch the field. Would be a late-round option.

5. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech: Playing in one of the most quarterback-friendly systems around, Potts continued the Red Raiders’ tradition of putting up monster numbers. In two seasons as a starter, Potts threw for 7,126 yards, 57 touchdowns and 23 interceptions while completing about 66 percent of his passes. While past Red Raiders quarterbacks haven’t translated well to the NFL, Potts has some physical tools that may allow him to be successful. He stands 6-foot-4, 218 pounds and does a decent job of finding his secondary options. However, he doesn’t have tremendous accuracy or arm strength and isn’t great moving in the pocket. Would be a late-round option at best.

Each week leading up to the draft, the Foxboro Blog crew will spend a week breaking down a position on the Patriots' roster.  We'll start with a quick overview and then move onto a discussion involving potential draftees at that spot as well as free-agents that the Patriots may pursue.  Up this week are the quarterbacks...

2010 Recap:  Heading into 2010, there was some legitimate questions about whether Tom Brady still deserved to be ranked among the NFL's elite quarterbacks.  After setting the league on fire with his 2007 performance, Brady subsequently missed the 2008 season with a torn ACL, and then played below his usual high standard in 2009.  Considering that Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had dueled the Super Bowl that February, while Brady's Patriots fizzled out in the most lop-sided home playoff loss in team history, the doubters certainly had material to work with.  Adding to the uncertainty were the facts that Brady's top target, Wes Welker, was coming off of ACL surgery, his deep threat, Randy Moss, was sulking about his contract status, and that the Patriots squad in general was filled with first and second year players. 

So what did Brady do in light of all the haters and nay-sayers?  Well, first, he smashed up his Audi, then he walked into Robert Kraft's office and signed a contract that made him the hightest paid QB in the league, then he spent the next sixteen games destroying his opponents en route to an league MVP award during what can arguably be considered the best regular-season performance by a quarterback in history.  (Brady's only real competition for that distinction being himself in 2007.)

So, yeah, I guess you could say that 2010 was a pretty good year at quarterback for the New England Patriots. 

How do you see the Lockout affecting the Patriots' draft strategy?

Rick:  This question is interesting because this organization always likes to trade their draft picks. I could see Belichick trading some of these 2011 picks for picks in the 2012 NFL Draft. With the lack of an offseason training program, the Patriots will not have to assimilate as many players into their system. I was thinking they could make a big trade like a Steve Smith or someone of that caliber, but until the CBA is resolved ,there is no trades. Look for the Patriots to be aggressive the first two rounds in picking, but then trade picks on Day 3.

With Hard Knocks leaning towards taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, would you want the Patriots to ever take part in HBO's hit series?

Stephen:  I would love to see the Patriots on Hard Knocks. It's one of my favorite series, and it is the most in-depth look fans get at the everyday routine of the NFL offseason. It would be cool to see how these guys interact at training camp, how Bill Belichick is on the practice field and in the film room, and see the inner workings of the draft room and scouting processes.

1. What is the Bills' primary need in this draft? Who do you see them taking in the draft with that number three pick?

What isn't their primary need would probably be a shorter answer. All of the talk has been about a franchise quarterback, though their biggest needs are in the front seven defensively. Aaron Maybin has been referred to everything short of a bust by Chan Gailey now, and he might not even have a roster spot if we have a season this fall. Despite the defensive needs, the overwhelming majority of reports suggest that Nix and Gailey want Auburn QB Cam Newton at the three spot.

2. Each team is affected by the lockout in different ways. In what ways does that affect the Bills positively or negatively?

I think right now because of the limitations of player movement, its sort of worked to the Bills advantage. Buffalo has been a pretty conservative off-season team in recent years, and because the time table from which other teams have to work to build their clubs will be shortened, that will help Buffalo. It's also a thought that Nix doesn't like to trade much at the draft, and since trading players will not be allowed unless a deal is reached, that evens the playing field a bit as well.

For me, the NFL Draft is the most exciting part of the off-season. After months of watching film, conducting medical exams, interviewing and running 40-yard dashes, the day arrives when hundreds of prospects wait to hear their names called.

Every year there are prospects who fall, those who get picked higher than we thought and some who don’t get drafted at all.

As the only team with two first-round picks, the Patriots will be a key player in what should be an exciting three days.

With that said, here are my ten draft thoughts/predictions:

1. New England will move from both the No. 17 and No. 28 selections.

I fully expect Bill Belichick to follow his trend of getting value in the draft. With so many teams in search of quarterbacks, I see the Pats trading the No. 28 selection for future picks and possibly moving up from 17 to get an elite player.

2. Four quarterbacks go in first round

Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton are first-round locks. In fact, they might be gone by pick No. 5. However, with the Redskins, Vikings, Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals all in need of a franchise QB, I think Christian Ponder and Jake Locker will get selected on day one. While Locker has accuracy issues, his athleticism and intangibles are off the charts. Ponder is experienced, intelligent and would be a good fit in a west coast offense.

3. Adrian Clayborn slips out of round one

The former Iowa Hawkeye had a monster junior season, racking up 63 tackles and 11 sacks, but dropped off considerably as a senior (52/4). Besides that, he is an average athlete and has an arm condition that limits his versatility. With a deep defensive line class, he may not hear his name called on day one.