All the other kids with the pumped up kicks, you better run, better run, faster than Vince Wilfork.

Perhaps they were inspired by our Top 12 plays series this summer, but whatever the case, the Patriots are making spectacular plays a weekly occurrence.  Wes Welker's 99 yard TD interception and Big Vince's INT and run would have easily cracked the Top 5 last year, and we're only two weeks into the season. 

Brady breaks yet another record.

Brady's 940 passing yards in the first two games of the season is an NFL record.  In addition, he's already thrown 7 TD's (and is on pace to break his 50 TD season by 6) and only one, very flukey INT.  Everyone thought that 2007 would be Brady's prime, but by all accounts, from what we've seen this decade, Brady's playing his best football yet, right now.  Brady is becoming Manning-esque in his absolute control of the game.  He seems to know exactly what's coming from the defense, has great protection up front, and the offensive weapons to dissect whatever coverage is thrown at him.  What Brady has done over the past few weeks is akin to artwork, and we can only expect more greatness as the season rolls on.

Terrific Tight Ends.

With Devin McCourty failing to light it up the first two games, it's becoming more apparent that Belichick's biggest picks in the 2010 draft may have very well been tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.  The two are quickly becoming favorite targets for Brady and are able to disrupt the opposing defense by allowing for a flurry of offensive looks.  So far, the duo has combined for 5 of Brady's 7 TD throws.

"Bend but don't break" is apparently back.

At times, yesterday, I felt like I was watching a replay from 2010, with the New England defense allowing the opposition to march down the field only to come up with a big stop.  To some degree, you can argue that any drive that ends with 0 points is a win for the defense, still many of the Patriots faithful find themselves longing for the days when Bruschi, Seymour, McGinnest, Law, Harrison, and Vrabel would smother the opposing offense.

Overall, I'd say the Patriots D did a formidable job yesterday.  Other than getting ripped to shreds by Vincent Jackson, who was just a beast, they were fairly stout.  I think a large part of the reason why we're seeing so many passing yards from the opposition is that the Patriots run defense has really stepped it up this year.  Teams simply aren't able to run on Wilfork and Haynesworth, so they somewhat abandon the run and just air it out.  Yes, if the Patriots could develop a "lockdown" secondary, they'd be nearly unbeatable, but it's hard to fault guys like McCourty, Bodden, Arrington, and Chung for giving up yards when teams are throwing the ball at them so frequently

No sleeping on the Bills.

Whoever thought Week 3 would be an easy game (why are you looking at me?), think again.  The Bills have stampeded to a 2-0 start, and the winner of Sunday's game will be 3-0 and leading the AFC East.  You know Buffalo will be hyped and bringing their A game.  The Patriots will absolutely need to match that level of intensity.

After embarrassing the Dolphins on national television, the Patriots offense continued to score at a torrid pace, dropping 35 points on the Chargers.

For the second week, Tom Brady threw for more than 400 yards and spread the ball to his receivers, tight ends and backs.

While Philip Rivers did throw for 378 yards and two touchdowns, the defense was opportunistic, picking off two passes.

With two convincing wins under their belt, here are the Pats’ Week 2 risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Tom Brady: After throwing for 517 yards and four touchdowns against the Dolphins, few thought Brady could play better against the high-powered Chargers.

They thought wrong. Brady completed a ridiculous 77 percent of his passes for 423 yards and three touchdowns against last year’s top-ranked defense. Once again, Brady relied on his favorite target – Deion Branch – who finished the game with eight catches for 129 yards. Brady looks poised to capture the MVP award again.

2. Gronk & Hernandez: The tight end duo proved last season was no fluke in week one. But in week two, they were even better. Gronkowski simply manhandled the Chargers’ smaller safeties. The 6-foot-6, 265-pounder reeled in four catches for 86 yards and a pair of scores. His 6-foot-2 counterpart, the speedy Hernandez, caught seven passes for 62 yards including an impressive leaping touchdown.

3. Front seven: While the Patriots only recorded two sacks, the front seven made some key plays in a game where the secondary was exposed. Vince Wilfork made an incredibly athletic interception near the end of the second quarter, rumbling 30 yards down the field before being tackled. Kyle Love also had an active game and recovered a fumble. Free agent acquisition Mark Anderson had a strip sack of Rivers and Jerod Mayo made a key tackle on a fourth-and-one play.

 

Fallers

1. Leigh Bodden: The Patriots’ top corner in 2009 simply hasn’t looked good this year. Nursing back and thumb injuries, he didn’t even draw the start, but had to come on when rookie Ras-I Dowling went down with a thigh injury. Bodden was flagged for holding twice and was part of a secondary that got abused by Vincent Jackson who had 10 catches for 172 yards and two scores.

2. Ras-I Dowling: While it isn’t necessarily his fault, Dowling had to leave the game with an injury to his thigh, doing nothing to shed his injury-prone label. The Patriots used the top pick in the second round to take the big corner from Virginia and need him to stay healthy and on the field to justify his draft selection.

3. Danny Woodhead: Some would say this choice is a little critical, but last season’s unsung hero didn’t have a strong game. After a great game against Miami, Woodhead managed only 12 yards on four carries and caught two passes for 15 yards. Beyond his lack of production, he also got exposed in pass protection a few times.

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After a historic performance by Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense on Monday night, New England now will play at home for the first time this season. Brady has already told the crowd in his own unique way to get loud for this game because this is going to feel like an AFC Championship Game. This weekend, the Pats take on Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers.
San Diego was not impressive in the first half of their opener against the Minnesota Vikings. They were down 17-7 at half and their lack of special teams hurt them on the opening kickoff. However, they found a way to win with their vast amount of talent with Rivers and running back Mike Tolbert as well as their number one ranked defense limiting Donovan McNabb to just 39 yards passing. This is the team that some experts think will finally break through and make it to the Super Bowl. However, they have to show they can beat the Patriots first!
Here are my keys to the game:

1. No Kicking Kaeding: Last week, the Chargers lost their franchise kicker Nate Kaeding in the first quarter due to a torn ACL. Even though he has had his playoff chokes in the past, Kaeding is one of the more accurate kickers in the game today. Just look at the impact of his absence in last year’s matchup. They signed Kris Brown last year to make up for the loss, but Brown missed a 50 yard field goal to lose the game. This year, that replacement is Nick Novak. Novak competed at Jets’ training camp for their kicking job, but lost to Nick Folk. If this game comes down to a 50 yarder like last year, I will be less nervous with Novak kicking than with Kaeding.

2. Send Him Down The River: We all know that Philip Rivers is in the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL. The one team however that Rivers can’t seem to beat is the New England Patriots. Over the course of his career, Rivers is 1-4 against the Patriots with a 78.4 passer rating. The only win he has against Bill Belichick was when Matt Cassel was quarterback. Last year, the Patriots did not ring up a sack total, but they did have two sacks and forced Rivers into an interception. We know the Chargers’ QB will be in the red zone often, but the Patriots need to do what they did five years ago and that is to make them kick field goals.

3. Standing Around In Awe: The big storyline this week around Patriots’ camp has been the tweet that Chad Ochocinco put out about he was in awe with Tom Brady’s historic 517 yard performance Monday night. He has been ripped by Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison, former Patriots, after Chad only had one catch for 14 yards. Surprisingly, Chad has been quiet this week, which tells me he has focused more on his playbook instead of his Twitter account. I expect him to contribute more in the passing game this week.

Prediction: Tom Brady has won 28 straight regular season home games dating back to 2006. I think it will be 29 this week, but it will be a close game. The Chargers can match points with the Patriots’ offense especially with Vincent Jackson at wide receiver and their physical running game. The Patriots will force Rivers into a mistake like they always do.

Keep an eye also on if Julian Edelman can return a punt or a kick that gives Brady excellent field position late in the game. San Diego has poor special teams and in a shootout, a kick/punt return can make all the difference. The Chargers will have the ball late, but they miss a field goal that decides this game.

PATRIOTS 27 CHARGERS 24

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Tom Brady

 

Brady exceeded all expectations last week, but he could come crashing back to earth against a stout Chargers defense on Sunday. You're not going to bench Brady under most circumstances, but tempering expectations to something like 250 yards and 2 scores would be prudent.

Wes Welker

Welker is the only Patriots receiver I would recommend this week due to his incredible chemistry with Brady. He should be in the 6-80-1 range at best.

Deion Branch/Chad Ochocinco

I wouldn't mess around with either of these guys this week. Don't expect either player to exceed 4 catches and 50 yards.

Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski

The Patriots used both tight ends extensively in Week 1, and I would not be surprised if they followed a similar gameplan against San Diego. The biggest weakness of the Chargers defense is stopping the tight end, so look for both players to split up 8 catches for 130 yards and a score. Start either player with confidence.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead

The Patriots didn't use BJGE much in Week 1, opting to use Woodhead extensively between the 20s to take advantage of his matchup versatility and pass protection skills. Starting either of these players is a gamble in a game that figures to be lower-scoring than most New England contests, but you could make an argument for flexing BJGE in TD-heavy leagues or Woodhead in PPR and yardage-heavy leagues. They should combine for 80-100 yards and a possible score.

Stephen Gostkowski

Expect somewhere around 1-2 FGs and 3 extra points.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams

The Chargers are explosive on offense but wildly inconsistent in terms of turnovers and special teams play. Expect 2-3 sacks and 1-2 turnovers with at least 21-24 points scored. If your team counts special teams scores and yardage as part of defensive scoring, starting the Pats is a no-brainer. They are otherwise a marginal play.

Week 2 of the NFL is upon us and the Foxboro Blog Pick 'Em game continues.  Last week, Trevor, a new comer to the game, jumped out to a 4-1 lead over the other four veteran pickers.  We have a three-way tie for 2nd, with Jason, last year's winner, in last place.  

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
CHI @ NO
HOU @ MIA
OAK @ BUF
PHI @ ATL
JAC @ NYJ
Last Week	3-2	2-3	3-2	3-2	4-1
Record	3-2	2-3	3-2	3-2	4-1

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Ross Warner from Justice is Coming, Bloguin's San Diego Chargers blog.  Here's what Ross had to say about the Chargers and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. First, I want to start with the expectations put on this team. Most experts think this is the Chargers' year to win the Super Bowl. Is this their time and do you think they are the team to beat in the AFC?

I wouldn't say that most experts are picking the Chargers to reach the Super Bowl.  It has been that way in some year's past, but I think at this point those "experts" are just thinking that they've got to get out of their own way and over the hump eventually.  Is it their time?  It's certainly the fans' time.  They've suffered through 3 first-round home field choke jobs and I think the one against the Pats still hurts many fans the most.  I don't think the Bolts are the team to beat right now--more people would say you guys are.  But I would like to believe that they will be the team to beat when it matters most.  That's always been the problem with the Chargers.

2. How concerned are you with the special teams unit, especially with Percy Harvin last week running the kick back. Could this flaw hurt their chances for the Super Bowl?

Much like the Chargers themselves, I have to believe that they can't make the same mistakes over and over again on special teams.  Our new ST coach has a good track record from his time in Tampa.  But Steve Crosby and the Chargers' special teams of the 2004-2009 years were some of the best groups in the league.  Defections and injuries certainly led to the disaster a year ago.  However, a change had to be made since the message clearly wasn't getting through.  AJ Smith is not one for knee-jerk reactions, but I would have like to have seen the move done last year when it might have done some good.

 

3. Last year, the Patriots beat the Chargers due to a Kris Brown missed FG in place of Nate Kaeding. This week, Nick Novak most likely takes over. How detrimental is it to Norv Turner not to have Kaeding?

Are you really asking me how I feel about Nate Kaeding? Look, he is a nice guy and he appears to understand how badly he has choked in January.  But that isn't getting us a Lombardi Trophy.  As you remember, the Kris Brown field goal was only the result of an onsides kick to even give him that shot.  Mike Vanderjagt was given one "mulligan" in the playoffs and that kick against the Steelers was a much harder one than any of Kaeding's misses (except for maybe the one that ended the 1/14/07 meltdown against New England). He's missed 4 kicks in 2 playoff losses against the Jets. Enough said.  Nick Novack, or anyone else, would be an upgrade in my mind.  All of Kaeding's makes in the regular season (I know he's the most accurate during that span, as was Vanderjagt) mean nothing.  As I saw one Charger fan post on a message board, "3 points in January would make Nick Novak my new BFF."

4. Phillip Rivers finally has a whole set of weapons with Vincent Jackson back for a full season? What kind of difference does Vincent Jackson have on this team?

Vincent Jackson makes a big difference for this offtense.  I think where it is most evident is when it frees up other guys.  One of the many cliches that the Chargers allow to be propogated about them is that Rivers can throw to anyone as long as they are tall.  Jackson is a legitimate matchup problem for defenses.  When they are focused on him, other guys can get free.  Jackson didn't have great numbers last week, but Rivers overthrew him on a wide open touchdown.  The mid range passing game was the one working last week but it remains to be seen if that was adjusting and adapting on the Bolts' part or just the result of shortcomings in Minnesota's secondary.

 

5. Running back Mike Tolbert reportedly suffered a bruise to his knee in the win Sunday. If he is out, can San Diego run effectively? What has Tolbert brought to this team with LT and Sproles out?

I love Mike Tolbert.  He gives the Chargers an attitude that they so often seem to lack.  His knee should be "fine," but his running style obviously lends to him getting hit a lot.  However, he's the one doing the hitting often times.  But Tolbert cannot be the Chargers' only option in the run game.  Ryan Mathews clearly has a ton of explosiveness and manueverability.  The Chargers need both guys to be working on both the ground and the air.  That is how the production that was once coming from LT and Sproles can be recouped.  Jordan Todman, a rookie who looked to be the replacement for Sproles in preseason, was inactive last week.

6. In 2012, is Norv Turner the head coach?

Is Turner the coach?  Not if this team flames out yet again.  AJ Smith may even find his historically comfy perch at Charger Park getting increasingly hot if that happens.  The Chargers have nothing to show for all of their regular season wins and division titles.  If this team can't at least get back to the AFC title game, Norval could be jettisoned.

 

7. Give us a pick. Who do you like Sunday in Foxboro and why?

Who do I like on Sunday?  There is no reason to think that the Chargers will take down the Pats, but I have to believe.  I was in the stands when they allowed a relatively unknown Tom Brady to lead his team back against the Bolts in 2001 and I was there when the Chargers blew them out in 2005.  This is the sort of game the Bolts haven't won in the past, especially in the playoffs.  When they came to the Giants Stadium in 2009, I also didn't see much reason to think they would pull that game out.  They needed a last-second miracle to do it, but it propelled them throughout the rest of that season until their old ways found their way back in the playoffs.  You can see that I am constantly in conflict between what I want the Chargers to do and what they end up doing.  I have to believe that Philip Rivers takes some steps towards winning big games again, instead of simply being a guy with great numbers.  I think that begins on Sunday.

Bolts 28, Pats 24.

As expected, there are some big changes in the Top 12.  We have a new #1 team, we have a team making it's Top 12 debut, we have two teams rising 4 spots each, and two teams plummeting 5 spots each, and two teams in the Top 12 who weren't there last week!   And next week is almost guaranteed to be just as crazy with six of our twelve teams facing off against each other!   Click "Read More" to see the madness!

The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites as they prepare to host the San Diego Chargers in Week 2.

To me, betting on Chargers games is about as scientific as placing bets on a roulette wheel. San Diego has an elite defense, strong running game and top-shelf quarterback, but you never really know if the team is going to show up on any given week. They could give you four good quarters, or they might give you one. Norv Turner can look like Bill Parcells one minute and Eric Mangini the next. Rivers could throw for 500 yards and six TDs, but they might somehow give up nine special teams TD and still lose. This enigma was never more evident than in last year’s game against New England. The Patriots were limited to less than 180 yards of total offense, but won 23-20 because of San Diego’s untimely turnovers and other mental lapses. In short, the Chargers won everywhere except the scoreboard. Even last week against the Vikings, they limited McNabb to 39 yards passing, held Adrian Peterson under 100 yards rushing, and yet they still trailed for most of the game before pulling out a late 24-17 victory. How does that happen?

The Patriots gained roughly a billion yards against Miami in Week 1, but the Chargers pass defense will provide a much stiffer test. If someone wanted to argue that San Diego has the league’s best pass defense, I don’t think I’d argue with them (mostly because I deeply despise the other teams that could reasonably make that argument). Rivers is a far better quarterback than Chad Henne. San Diego’s running game in stronger than Miami’s. Chargers receivers and tight ends are more explosive and versatile than Miami’s corps. New England’s defense is still a work in progress, so I don’t like their odds of shutting down a better offense than the one they struggled against on Monday night. The national media is gushing about the Patriots after Brady’s 500-yard performance, but it’s important to remember that there are still holes in this team. They won 38-24, not 38-0.

With all that said, this line is right where it should be for sportsbooks. It’s tough to spot a team like San Diego more than a TD against any team, even if they’re on the road against a Super Bowl contender. If the Chargers grab the lead, their defense won’t make it easy for New England to catch up. If New England is staked to a lead of more than a TD, I don’t trust the pass defense to hold it. And don’t forget that the Patriots are coming off a short week.

I think New England will win a close game, but I expect San Diego to cover the spread.

 

Other Lines I Like This Week

Ravens (-7) @ Titans

Am I missing something here? The Titans couldn’t beat a team led by Luke McCown last week, and they struggled to put up points against a middle-of-the-pack Jaguars defense. And now they have to play a Ravens team that just throttled the defending conference champs. The Titans are playing at home, but that only means they won’t get booed until the 2^nd quarter. This one seems like a no-brainer. I’d double this bet.

Packers (-10.5) @ Panthers

I usually hate laying this much cheddar to any team, but the Cheeseheads will be well-rested and have another week of tape on Cam Newton. A large part of Newton’s success in Week 1 was due to mistakes by an undisciplined Arizona defense. The Packers will likely play Newton the same way they played Vick in the playoffs last year. The biggest difference here is the players around Cam aren’t as good as Vick’s supporting cast in Philly, so they won’t be able to keep the score close. Packers will win this one in a laugher.

OVER (45) on Lions @ Chiefs

The Chiefs are going to miss injured S Berry, as he was quickly developing into one of the league’s better playmakers and was a big part of their surprising playoff run last year. Calvin Johnson and Detroit’s receivers could have a field day. On the other side, the Lions don’t have a linebacker who can come close to covering Jamaal Charles underneath, and Dwayne Bowe could create matchup problems in the secondary. This should be a recipe for a whole lot of points.

2010 record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 record ATS: 4-4
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After a 38-24 drubbing of the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, the Patriots look like a team destined for a deep playoff run. Here are some of the top performers and a look at those who disappointed.

Risers

1. Tom Brady: It was just another day at the office for Tom Terrific. The reigning unanimous MVP, playing without his starting right tackle and a backup center, threw for a MNF-record 517 yards. Brady’s execution of the no-huddle offense and pinpoint accuracy was simply too much for the Dolphins defense to handle.

2. Gronk & Hernandez: These two should open up a law firm (no pun intended, BenJarvus). After exceeding expectations as rookies, the sophomore duo took their game to a new level in the season opener. Gronkowski’s blend of size, power and ability to get open are elite, and Hernandez’s athleticism is unmatched at the position. They combined for 13 catches, 189 yards and two touchdowns.

3. Offensive line: With Sebastian Vollmer out with a back injury, rookie Nate Solder drew the start. While he was supposed to be the swing tackle, the 17^th overall pick was faced with the tough task of shutting down Miami’s sackmaster Cameron Wake. Outside of a questionable holding penalty and a coverage sack, Solder did just that. The 6-foot-8, 319-pounder kept Brady clean in the pocket and neutralized Wake for most of the game. After Dan Koppen went down with a broken ankle, Dan Connolly finished the game at center and was solid as was new right guard Brian Waters.

Fallers

1. Secondary: While Devin McCourty defended a few passes, overall it wasn’t the cleanest performance for a young group. McCourty and Co. didn’t do a good job shutting down Brandon Marshall (seven catches for 139 yards) and gave up a few big plays. Rookie Ras-I Dowling looked solid in his first game, preventing two goal-line touchdown attempts. The safeties didn’t make much of an impact, although Pat Chung was around the ball. But, giving up 416 yards to Chad Henne is unacceptable.

2. New additions: After a poor preseason, Chad Ochocinco’s struggles continued. The veteran wideout caught one pass for 14 yards on only 18 snaps. While some of this can be attributed to the no-huddle offense, Chad needs to get the playbook down if he wants to see significant playing time. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth got some decent push, but recorded only two tackles and no quarterback hits or sacks. His conditioning is still an issue, but I think he’ll begin to make an impact soon.

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With the 2011 regular season fast-approaching, it's time to do a breakdown of the upcoming schedule for the Patriots.  So far, in the first twelve games, I have the Patriots at 11-1.  Here is my breakdown of the final four games of the regular season.

 

Week 14 - Away vs. Washington

At this point in the season, I would expect the Redskins to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  However, that's no reason to take the Skins lightly.  Taking down the Patriots would be a big statement for Washington, so you know they'll be bringing their A-game.  Mike Shanahan is also on the short list of coaches who have been able to go head to head with Belichick and come out on top on more than a few occassions.  Still, I think the Patriots are simply the better team.  I'm racking up another W for the Pats.

Predicted Record: 12-1