Colts (+6.5) @ Ravens

The Colts have assumed the mantle as the NFL’s sweetheart team because of Pagano, but they have backed their playoff spot up with solid play on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Ravens have played somewhere between embarrassingly terrible and barely passable for much of the season. No way do they deserve this much respect.

Texans (-4.5) vs. Bengals

The Texans have been ice-cold the past few weeks, but I still think they deserve the benefit of the doubt against a team that hasn’t beaten a good team since Week 3. A friend of mine joked that the AFC has five playoff teams and the Bengals. That’s a pretty apt description.

Vikings (+7.5) @ Packers

I don’t quite know what to make of the Vikings, but they have a few factors working in their favor, including the best RB on earth facing a team that struggles to stop the run. I don’t think Minnesota is good enough to march into Lambeau and beat Aaron Rodgers, but I think they’re good enough to hang around and keep it interesting. When you’re getting more than a TD, that’s good enough.

Redskins (+3) vs. Seahawks

I like Russell Wilson enough, but it’s worth noting that his home/road splits were ugly. His QB rating was 40 points lower away from CenturyLink. Even though I routinely bet against home underdogs, I’m told they are useful. There is a wide range of outcomes for this game, so I’ll take the points.

2012 Record ATS: 29-23

ATS since 2010: 100-90-4

    The 2012 Regular Season has come to an end. Thankfully, we have more football to look forward to with the playoffs starting next week. But thanks to the Houston Texans' loss to Indianapolis earlier, the Patriots' win over Miami today clinched them the #2 seed in the AFC, and therefore, a first round bye.

   It seems like the Miami Dolphins did not want to play this game. They knew their season was already over and the windy & chilly conditions didn't help their cause either. The Patriots on the other hand, manipulated the positives from freezing weather and played superb. All of the problems they experienced in the Jacksonville game were all fixed today. That's what we were hoping to see and that's what we got. 

   The Patriots had a nice display of offense but I wouldn't say it was explosive. Of course that is debatable but I just viewed this evening's match as a healthy display of offense from New England. Wes Welker opened the scoring for New England from a 9 yard TD pass from Tom Brady. The TD pass from Brady extends his streak of consecutive games thrown with at least 1 TD pass to 48 games. That passes Johnny Unitas' 47 and creeps closer to Drew Brees. Stevan Ridley had a great bounce back game, shreadding the Dolphins rush defense with 2 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter (one of them on 4th down). The return of the Incredible Gronk was a debated issue on many social network sites. Some said he should have started and some say he shouldn't have. Either way he made it through the game fine and added a touchdown in the 4th quarter to make the game 28-0. I was very impressed that the Offensive Line protected Tom Brady throughout the match. If that O-Line does what it did today in the playoffs, then I cant see why this team can't go back to the Super Bowl. In addition, the defense played with tremendous effort. Even without Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard, the Patriots showed their aggressive play. When a team's defense shows confidence, it will be successful. Overconfidence on the other hand will kill a team and I liked how the Patriots defense made the transition from overconfident to confident. They had forced fumbles and got many sacks on Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots have to keep this up in the playoffs if they want to go to the Super Bowl again. Enjoy the week off Pats fans and Let's Go Patriots!

The New England Patriots head into their final regular season game of 2012 on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots struggled last weekend against the Jaguars on the offensive side of the football, but they were able to survive thanks to a late Patrick Chung interception. Now, the Pats will have many options with the game at 4:25 PM Sunday to see where they stand in the AFC Playoff picture.

To run through the scenarios real quick:

PATRIOTS WIN – they secure no. 3 seed

PATRIOTS WIN + TEXANS Loss – Pats get no. 2 seed and a 1st round bye

PATRIOTS WIN + TEXANS LOSS + BRONCOS LOSS – PATS get Home Field

PATRIOTS LOSS + RAVENS WIN – PATRIOTS get no. 4 seed

For Miami, this is a chance for them to finish a season at 8-8 in which all the prognosticators besides yours truly picked them to finish dead last. Plus, they played the Patriots tough in Miami a week ago losing 23-16. However, in that game, Miami got to Brady repeatedly and slowed down the passing attack. This is where the possible return of tight end Rob Gronkowski will be a huge help even if it is a limited role. Even if the bye is not up for grabs, I would still like the Pats to try to gather up any momentum they can going into the Wild Card game by fixing some of the cogs the Pats’ machine has had the last two games.

Here are my keys to the regular season finale:

After a lackluster performance against the Jaguars with many starters out of the mix, how concerned are you that the Patriots may be a little rusty for their opening playoff game?

Stephen:  Despite the stinker the Patriots threw up in Jacksonville, I'm not concerned about them being rusty for their opening playoff game. After Tom Brady ripped into the team in the locker room, I expect New England to come out firing on all cylinders in the regular-season finale against the Miami Dolphins. Gronk should be back in the lineup, and hopefully Brandon Spikes and Alfonzo Dennard can see some snaps in preparation for the playoffs. Expect a big turnaround next week as the Pats push toward a Super Bowl run.

Jason: The Jags game was a bit of a puzzler, but it could have also been a case of the team trying to win ugly without putting anything new and exciting on tape for their playoff opponents. I wouldn't put too much stock in that game. If the team had a first round bye, I might be slightly worried that some rust could come into play. But given the fact that they aren't likely to have an off week in between the regular season and the playoffs to get cold, I don't think that is going to be a major factor.

Raj:  Like I mentioned in my recap, I was expecting some things to go wrong against Jacksonville. From my point of view, the lackluster performance happened because of either overconfidence or laziness. I'm
not concerned however because I expected it. The Patriots have one more "tune-up" game to really fix any problems they've had all season. That offensive line is one huge problem and I expect the Pats to
improve on that field. Whether New England earns the first round bye or has to play a wild card game, they will be ready and they will be  deadly. Plus with the return of the Incredible Gronk, the Pats are at
an advantage come playoff time. With all being said, I don't think there's much to stress about and we should be able to see the Patriots football we're used to seeing in the playoffs.

Talk about a surprising weekend.  Not only did the world not end, but I managed to somehow remain in first place.  However, this week, I'm tied with Raj instead of Rick.  Raj made some bold calls last week and it paid off big time.  In a week where everyone else went sub-.500, he managed to post a 5-2 record.  This week, he's going for broke by picking the Colts, Vikings, and Eagles.  Will the gambles pay off?

I love weeks like the one coming up.  Ten of our Top 12 teams are pitted against each other in battles that will send teams flying up and down the board or cementing their spot as we head towards the post-season. 

#1 - Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has laid down total spankings of their opponents in back to back weeks.  However, as we've been saying all season, it's their first home playoff performance that will truly matter.

Last Week: 2      Change: +1     Record: 13-2       Next Game: vs. Buccaneers

#2 - San Francisco 49ers

I won't kill the Niners for losing to the Seahawks on the road, especially after toppling the Pats on the road as well.  San Francisco is still the most complete NFC team in my book.

Last Week: 1   Change: -1      Record: 10-4-1   Next Game: vs. Cardinals

#3 - New England Patriots

The win was lackluster, but people are overlooking the fact that New England was resting a bunch of banged up starters.   I could drop them a spot since it was still a game against a 2-win Jaguars squad, but I refuse to put the Patriots below the Broncos...

Last Week: 3    Change: 0       Record: 11-4       Next Game: vs. Dolphins

#4 - Denver Broncos

..because Denver still hasn't beaten a single "elite" team and has lost to three of them.  Suddenly a win at home against the Browns has everyone touting them as the best team in the NFL?  It's moments like this that make it clear the media has lost their collective mind.

Last Week: 4      Change: 0     Record: 12-3     Next Game: vs. Chiefs

The Patriots opened as 11.5-point favorites as they host the Dolphins in Week 17.

So … last weekend happened. People who make wagers based primarily on the team’s performance in the previous week often lament their bad luck when they lose all of their money the next week. It’s a fun cycle that keeps bookies flush with cash and hotel rooms cheap in Las Vegas. But when you see an otherwise awesome team come out flat two weeks in a row? Then you start to wonder if it might be a trend. Just ask anybody who has put money on the Giants this season.

The Patriots have been skull-fuckingly awful in the first half of their past two games. They’ve pulled things together in the second half of both games to a certain extent, but when you fall behind a decent team early, it makes the playcalling that much more difficult. And as sad as it sounds, Miami has something resembling a half-decent team. Another win puts them solidly in the throes of .500 mediocrity, which is lofty heights of any AFC East team south of New England. They’ll be motivated to not be called losers quite as often in the offseason. This is their Super Bowl.

There is a ton to worry about with this spread. For starters, the Pats may not be playing for anything. If the Texans beat the Colts during the 1 o’clock games, then the only way New England gets anything meaningful from a victory is in the unlikely event that the Chiefs beat Peyton Manning. Hold your breath for that one, and I’ll send flowers to your funeral. Secondly, the Fins haven’t been embarrassed many times this season, including a respectable 7-point loss to the Pats just a few weeks ago. And finally, Ryan Tannehill’s wife is smokin’ hot. I’m not sure if that affects the play on the field, but it should.

Given the circumstances, I’d wait to place any wagers until the outcome of the Texans-Colts game appears to be decided. If the Texans are cruising, take the points. If the Colts appear poised to win, hop on the Brady train and be prepared for the destruction.

Other Lines I Like

So much for redemption. 

Anyone who thought the Patriots would take out their frustrations about last week's loss to the 49ers had to have grown a few more grey hairs Sunday as New England barely beat the lowly Jaguars in Jacksonville. 

Missing Brandon Spikes and Alfonzo Dennard, New England's defense allowed 436 total yards, including 348 yards by Dolphins castoff Chad Henne. 

Though New England picked off the former Michigan star three times, it wasn't a day to write home about defensively. 

The pass rush was nonexistent and too often there were gaping holes in New England's suddenly soft defense. 

Those problems didn't compare to the complete lack of execution by the offense. And for the first time in a while, Tom Brady was one of the main culprits. 

Brady just seemed off Sunday, missing too many open targets and forcing a few too many throws. 

Ultimately the Jags beat themselves, but this wasn't a performance Bill Belichick will be happy about. 

Let's take a look at this week's risers and fallers. 

Risers 

1. Wes Welker, WR: The best slot man in the NFL proved to be too much for the Jaguars secondary to handle. In racking up 88 yards on 10 receptions, Welker broke Jerry Rice's record for most games (18) with 10 or more receptions. The sure-handed Welker was one of the only sure things for New England on Sunday. 

2. Dont'a Hightower, LB: Although he still has lapses in coverage, the 25th overall pick stood out in run defense and as a pass rusher. Hightower filled the stat sheet with six tackles, a sack, one quarterback hit and a pass defended. The former Alabama Crimson Tide star has shown plenty of growth potential as a rookie, and he will be counted on to keep producing as New England heads to the playoffs. 

3. Stevan Ridley, RB: He couldn't find the end zone, but he held on to the ball Sunday. New England's top tailback still earned the majority of the snaps in the Patriots' crowded backfield and made the most of them. Ridley carried the rock 18 times for 84 yards (4.7 average), eating up all but nine of the Patriots' 27 rushing attempts. 

4. Marquice Cole, CB: Often overshadowed by Aqib Talib and Devin McCourty, Marquice Cole has quietly been an integral part of the Patriots secondary in 2012. The slot corner earned big snaps Sunday with Dennard out and Talib playing limited snaps, and the former Jet responded with a very solid performance. Cole recorded six tackles (two for loss) and snagged his first interception of the season. 

Fallers

1. Offensive Line: In what's become a troubling trend, the offensive line failed to open up much room in the ground game and allowed too much pressure on Tom Brady. After picking up just 95 yards against the 49ers last week, New England's running game managed just 103 yards and a paltry 3.8-yard average. Brady was also under duress on the afternoon, as the Jags' sorry pass rush managed to bring him down three times. 

2. Tom Brady, QB: Yes folks. He's human too. Brady didn't play a great game Sunday, and he'd be the first to tell you so. Although Tom tossed two more touchdowns, he also tossed two more picks to make it four in his last two games. The first one was kind of a fluke play, but the second one seemed like a bit of a forced pass to Brandon Lloyd, who probably should have taken a better angle to the ball. Brady posted his second-lowest QBR rating of the season. Besides the blowout victory against Houston, Brady has recorded quarterback ratings of 74.8, 68.9 and 73.9 in his last three outings. 

3. Pass Rush: Outside of some late pressure by Chandler Jones, New England's defensive front failed to put any pressure on Chad Henne. Jones, who's been stuck on six sacks for over two months, finally got to Henne on the Jaguars' last two drives, but it was almost too little too late. Vince Wilfork didn't dominate like we've grown accustom to seeing, and Rob Ninkovich was held to a quiet two tackles. New England could really use Jermaine Cunningham's pass-rush skills in a hurry and would benefit from Jones resuming his strong play from the first half of the season.

Weeks before this game, I said that something would go wrong with the Patriots. All of my fellow Patriots fans told me I was insane. At one point I even thought they might lose. I really didn't have an answer but it just felt like this game against Jacksonville would be one in which they just let down their guard. Obviously, I was hoping I was wrong and I was. Fault accepted. However, contrary to what most Pats fans predicted, this game was not a blowout and the Jaguars gave New England quite a challenge. 

I was literally surprised at how Jacksonville opened up this game, with a 9-play 78 yard drive which culminated in a Justin Blackmon touchdown catch. Perhaps the Patriots defense came in way too overconfident because we definitely saw how they got shredded up on that opening series. In addition, I was also surprised at how the Patriots responded with their first possession of the match: An interception thrown by Tom Brady. Granted, it wasn't his fault (because Stevan Ridley still has butterfingeritis) yet, that's not how you expect the Pats to open up the game against a team that was tied for the worst record in the NFL. The Jaguars rightfully deserved the 10-3 lead after the 1st quarter.

I saw some #UpsetAlert tweets on my twitter timeline when the Jaguars made it 13-3. A bit pretentious but I could understand because the Patriots really didn't know what was going on. But as the quarter went on I saw a change in the tempo of the New England offense and keeping true to that, they ended up tying the game at 13 under 2 minutes. Of course, you shouldn't need a comeback to defeat the Jaguars (the Texans thought so too) but the objective was to get a win through simple mechanics at that point, which is what the Patriots did. I was very impressed that they stopped trying to play fancy because in those situations when you're down by 10, basic football mechanics help big time.

When the 3rd quarter started, I honestly was debating if this game was worth watching anymore because neither team was doing anything. Constant 3 and outs and a really slow-paced offensive display. But I stayed and the most action I got out of that quarter was seeing a field goal from Stephen Gostkowski. Yet in some ways, it was a bit of a concern to me that the Patriots were 3/4 of the way through the game but only had a 16-13 lead going into the 4th quarter.

The 4th looked a lot like the 1st, with action. At the end of the 3rd, the Pats were deep inside the Jags' redzone. Brady of course, opened up the 4th by finding Wes Welker for a 2 yard touchdown reception. Now I could breathe a little since the Patriots built a 10 point lead and it stayed that way for the majority of the match. Marquice Cole and Patrick Chung made statements by picking off Henne but the Patriots just couldn't find a way to extend the lead despite the numerous opportunites given to them by Jacksonville. It was as if both teams were trading opportunities but the Jaguars finally got a field goal to cut the New England lead to a TD.

On the Jaguars' final possession, I was very upset at Chung's discipline. By illegally hitting Cecil Shorts in the head, the Pats were forced to give up 15 yards and work with a new set of downs to defend. He should know that blind-side hits to the head can't be tolerated at that stage of the game. Despite the Jaguars driving all the way down the field (and at one point 12 yards away from the game-tying TD), Chung redeemed himself by grabbing Henne's pass, sealing the 23-16 win. The New England Patriots are now 11-4 and can still capture that first round bye (Houston did a favor by losing but Denver unfortunately won). Regardless, that's a great feeling to have as the Patriots enjoy their Christmas break.