Tom Brady

While New England hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard in recent weeks, Brady’s fantasy production has been steady but unspectacular. Don’t expect things to change this week, as the Jets’ pass defense should hold him well under 300 yards passing. Anything more than 2 TDs would be a mild surprise.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Kevin Faulk

The Law Firm steamrolled the Jets for 140+ yards in Week 5, and the Pats are likely to feature the running game again as they face a vulnerable New York front seven. He won’t exceed those totals, but expecting somewhere close to 80-100 yards and a 50-50 shot at a score is reasonable. Woodhead and Faulk have mainly been used in pass protection and as safety valves. If Faulk is healthy, expect him to steal the majority of Woodhead’s touches out of the backfield.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

Welker racked up 5 catches for 124 yards while matched up against Revis in Week 5. Defenses are keying on Welker, and I’d expect him to be limited to 5-6 catches and less than 100 yards, with a score unlikely. Branch roasted Cromartie for 7 catches and a score the first time around, and I wouldn’t be afraid to use him as a flex this week with a 4-5 catch, 60-70 yard outing a distinct possibility.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

It’s impossible to bench either of these guys, as they combined for 13 targets in the first contest against the Jets and have accounted for more than a third of New England’s passing offense this year. Because Gronkowski is the better run blocker, he should be on the field more. I think he is a stone-cold lock for 5+ catches and 60+ yards with a score very likely. Hernandez should come in around 4-50-1 as well.

Stephen Gostkowski

2 FGs, 3-4 XPs.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This unit still barely merits consideration in most leagues. The Jets allow roughly two sacks and a turnover per game, and I’d expect New England to be right around those numbers. I have a weird feeling the Pats will end up scoring on defense or special teams, but that is just a wild hunch that is not really backed up by any statistical analysis.

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For three solid weeks now, I've found myself picking at an impressive pace, but I'm still a daunting six games out of the lead.  Somehow, I keep spinning my wheels.  However, Week 10 is when everything changes.  I'm either going to get back in this competition or I'm going down hard.  There's no two ways about it.  I'm challenging the crowd on three of these seven picks, so something will undoubtedly give. 

By far, Week 10 is also our most varied when it comes to our staff making picks.  With so many big-time games on tap, there's no real consensus for most of these contests.  One thing that everyone agreed on though, is that the Patriots are going to stop their two game skid and command control of the AFC East this Sunday Night in the Meadowlands. We broke from tradition and included the Pats game in this week's slate of games.  Pats/Jets Part 2 is undoubtedly the "game of the year" for the Patriots, at least as far as the regular season is concerned.  With so many people doubting Brady and Belichick this week, I wanted to give our writers a chance to show where they stand. 

Just like the Patriots, we're united.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
HOU @ TB
BUF @ DAL
NO @ ATL
NYG @ SF
PIT @ CIN
DET @ CHI
NE @ NYJ
Last Week	5-2	5-2	4-3	4-3	3-4
Record	27-24	31-20	29-22	33-18	31-20

The Patriots made a few moves to fill out the bottom of the roster following the release of Albert Haynesworth.

The team cut Dan Gronkowski and released Thomas Welch from the practice squad and signed receiver Tiquan Underwood.

Underwood spent a short stint with the team in the preseason, but did not make the final roster. He could see playing time as a deep threat depending on the health of Taylor Price.

The team also signed special teamer Niko Koutouvides on Wednesday.

Josh Barrett, who drew four starts this year, was placed on injured reserve with a calf injury and will be replaced by Sterling Moore who was on the practice squad.

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There's chaos brewing on the board this week, with teams flying up and down all over the place.  Both Pittsburgh and New England plummet four positions, but not as far as the Bills who went from #7 last week, to off the board this time around.  Then there's the Giants who have strung together some impressive wins and are rewarded with a swift climb up the rankings.  And despite all the volatility last week, there's no way of telling what we're in for now as 8 of our 12 teams are going head to head this week.
 

Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
1		1	0	8-0	vs. Vikings
		The Packers continue their fairly breezy schedule this week against the Vikings.  8-0 is 8-0, but the Pack have hardly been tested thus far.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
2		10	+8	6-2	@ 49ers
		I have a hard time remembering the last time that a team leaped up 8 spots in the rankings.  Then again, I have a hard time remembering the last time Tom Brady lost a regular season game at home.  Give the G-Men credit, they pulled off a very tough victory and deserve a big jump in the rankings.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
3		3	0	7-1	vs. Giants
		SF could have been the #2 team, but an 8 point win against the Skins wasn't nearly as impressive as NY's win.  They can make up for it this weekend in a big-time #2 vs. #3 matchup.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
4		5	+1	6-2	@ Seahawks
		Baltimore was apparently just faking it the past few weeks, roaring back to sweep the Steelers.  They're now in the driver's seat for the AFC's top seed.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
5		6	+1	6-2	@ Chicago
		Detroit continues it's climb up the rankings, being gifted with a small bump during the bye week.  Now they face a real challenge with Chicago looking hot and ready to reclaim the #2 spot in the NFC North.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
6		2	-4	6-3	@ Bengals
		After a big win against New England, the Steelers fell into the trap.  They don't look so unstoppable after all, do they?
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
7		8	+1	6-3	@ Falcons
		The Saints have shot themselves in the foot a few times already, but took care of business against Tampa.  Now they can cement their divisional dominance by taking down the Falcons.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
8		4	-4	5-3	@ Jets
		One play here or there and the Pats don't lose to Buffalo or New York and they're sitting up at the top of the standings as the #2 team.  But football is a game of inches, and turnovers, and when you make four in one game, you end up with a big fat mark in the loss column.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
9		9	0	6-3	@ Buccaneers
		The South is all but Houston's at this point. The question is whether they can keep pace with the AFC East winner to grab the bye week.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
10		12	+2	6-2	vs. Steelers
		Believe it or not, at the season's mid-point, the Bengals are in 1st place in the entire AFC. The reality check is that they still have five games left against Pittsbugh, Baltimore, and Houston.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
11		11	0	5-3	vs. Saints
		This week's game determines whether the Falcons go back to being contenders or mediocre.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
12		N/A	N/A	5-3	vs. Patriots
		As usual, the #12 spot could have gone a number of ways.  I felt torn leaving Buffalo off the list, but seeing as they've lost to both the Bengals and Jets, it was hard to justify leaving them on the board.  The Jets have come on strong the past couple of weeks and have certainly earned a return to the Top 12.

The Patriots opened as 1-point favorites as they travel to New York to take on the rival Jets.

We’re going to see a lot of digital ink spilled this week to break down New England’s struggles on offense the past few weeks. I don’t think there are any easy answers. Lack of execution, turnovers and adjustments by opposing defenses have all played a role. Maybe Brady’s hair is too short. Maybe the sexual harassment charges against a certain butter-fingered wide receiver played a role. (that sounds way dirtier in print than it sounded in my head … honest) Maybe Rex Ryan is too fat. I don’t know what that has to do with anything. But somebody should point it out for his health’s sake.

The struggles on offense against the Cowboys, Steelers and Giants all share a similar characteristic; they’ve come against teams who can generate a lot of pressure with the pass rush even without an all-out blitz. The Jets have a decent pass rush, but a number of their sacks are due to excellent coverage on the back end. All three of the aforementioned teams have done a better job of getting to the QB than the Jets this year, so there may be hope that New England’s struggles will end this week.

The Pats have also struggled in pass coverage just a bit, so they are vulnerable to strong passing attacks. Mark Sanchez has played solid football the past several weeks, but his play has been buoyed by a strong running game. New England has been very good against the run, so Sanchez probably won’t have the luxury of playing game manager. It remains to be seen if he can win games on his own, so there is not definitive answer to that question this week.

Until I’m proven wrong, I’m going to stick with my theory that the Pats will struggle most against teams who can rush the passer and move the ball effectively through the air. The Jets don’t quite fit that bill. Oh, and Rex Ryan is fat. I’ll pick the Pats to cover.

Other Lines I Like

Broncos (+3.5) @ Chiefs

The Broncos unveiled a new gimmick last week by letting Tebow run the read option, and the results were unexpectedly good. Much like the Wildcat, the league is likely to catch up to this wrinkle in a few weeks. In the mean time, the Broncos should be able to put some points on the board.

Bills (+6) @ Cowboys

I don’t trust Tony Romo to beat anybody by six, especially with the hamstring monster biting Miles Austin last week. Buffalo stumbled last week against a team that presented a matchup problem, but I don’t think Dallas presents those same problems.

Texans (-3) @ Bucs

Tampa Bay gets a lot of credit for their 10-win season last year, but that was against a schedule that looked a lot like Penn State’s (with the notable exception that no children were harmed). The Bucs were giving up nearly 5 yards per carry before losing their best defensive lineman to injury on Sunday. The Texans have the league’s second-ranked rushing offense.

Redskins (+4) @ Dolphins

When you’re betting on two teams that aren’t very good, why not take the points and the clearly better defense? In last week’s picks, I alluded to how bad Washington’s offense has been under John Beck, but that also serves to obscure the fact that the Redskins have allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. I don’t think that either team will light up the scoreboard, so I’d take the points.

2011 Record ATS 23-23-2 (hooray for mediocrity!)

2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

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After playing just nine snaps, most of which resulted in him being pushed around, pancaked and disgraced, Albert Haynesworth was released Tuesday, according to the Boston Herald's Ian Rapoport. 

The former Defensive Player of the Year turned free agent bust has now failed to regain his 2008 form where he posted a career-high 8.5 sacks for a 13-3 Titans team. 

Instead, he's gobbled up more money and sacked more cheeseburgers than quarterbacks. 

Despite a tumultuous two-year stint in Washington where he signed a contract with $41 million guaranteed, Big Al seemed motivated to "shake off the rust" and unleash the beast in New England. 

Apparently the beast meant 132 snaps, three tackles and no sacks. 

Much like Dan Snyder, the overzealous and deep-pocketed GM of the Redskins, Pats nation was fooled into thinking Haynesworth was in it for anything but the money. 

Once he signed that fat contract, he got even fatter. He packed it in. He quit on two teams. He got paid. 

During his short stint in New England, he barely practiced due to a back injury (maybe he should have been in better shape), barely saw the field and barely tried to play with effort. 

Sunday's performance against the Giants was the perfect example of the lure that the 6-foot-6, 350-pounder presents. He applied some early pressure, driving David Diehl into the backfield. Yet, on three consecutive snaps, he was completed manhandled by guards David Diehl and Chris Snee who barely check in north of 300 pounds. 

That type of effort is inexcusable to the Patriots uniform and the Patriot Way. This defensive line is full of young players - Brandon Deadrick, Ron Brace, Jermaine Cunningham (where has he gone?) and Kyle Love. Not only is Haynesworth eating up their snaps, but he's setting a terrible example of how to be a pro. 

While Haynesworth certainly isn't the biggest reason for the team's two-game losing streak, he's the biggest enigma in the game. 

He may have well eaten himself out of the league. 

In a game eerily reminiscent to the Super Bowl that never happened, the Patriots once again failed to close out the fourth quarter against Eli Manning and dropped their second game in a row.

Besides the final drive, the defense played a strong game, applying consistent pressure on Manning and generally shutting down Brandon Jacobs.

However, the offense was inconsistent and Tom Brady simply doesn’t look like the MVP-caliber player he was in 2010.

Special teams is a major concern and the secondary continues to be a letdown.

Here are the risers and fallers this week.

Risers

1. Rob Gronkowski: His 2010 line of 42 catches, 546 yards, 10 touchdowns in 16 games was one of the best for a rookie tight end. But his 2011 production at the halfway point is even better: 44/596/6. Gronkowski has become Brady’s most reliable target outside of Wes Welker, and he was unstoppable against the Giants. Gronk showed fantastic concentration and hands to pluck some inaccurate throws, including one down around his shins. He’s more than a red zone threat and a possession receiver because he has the speed to get down the seam and is one of the better blocking tight ends in the league.

2. Wes Welker: While no one expected him to keep up his torrid pace, there was concern after Welker was held to 12 catches for 84 yards against Pittsburgh and Dallas. Facing a depleted Giants secondary, the 5-foot-9 jitterbug posted another 100+ yard game, finishing with nine catches for 136 yards. Welker’s elite route running and quickness make him impossible to cover, and his hands are some of the best in the game.

3. Andre Carter: He didn’t finish with a sack, but the wily veteran continued to put consistent pressure on the quarterback. The team’s leading sack artist recorded a game-high three QB hits and did a solid job in run defense. He probably would have registered a few sacks if not for some non-called holds by Will Beaty.

 

Fallers

1. Any receiver not named Welker: Five targets, zero catches. Ochocinco simply is a nonfactor in the Pats offense, and his inability to get on the same page with Brady has severely limited the offense. Teams are jamming Welker and harassing Brady, but no other wide receiver is getting open and making plays. Deion Branch simply doesn’t have the speed or physicality to create separation, Taylor Price hasn’t been able to get on the field and Edelman committed a costly fumble on a punt return. Paging Randy Moss?

2. Stephen Gostowski: The former Pro Bowl kicker missed another easy field goal which would have a huge impact in the loss. Down 17-13, the Patriots had to drive for a touchdown instead of running the clock down and kicking a field goal to ice the game. Instead, the Pats scored a TD to go up 20-17 before Eli Manning led the Giants to the game-winning TD.

3. Sergio Brown: It only took one defensive snap for Brown to earn a spot here, but his pass interference call, whether it was deserved or not, was the final nail in the coffin. He ran right into Victor Cruz near the goal line, allowing the Giants to take the ball from the 1-yard line and score an easy touchdown with little time remaining. Brown has proven he’s no more than a special teamer and his one snap was a backbreaker.

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You can blame Tom Brady for his three turnovers...

You can blame Gostkowski for shanking an easy field goal...

You can blame Ochocinco for still looking completely lost halfway through the season...

You can blame Julian Edelman for hanging onto a waitress's skirt better than he does a football...

You can blame the referees for turning a blind eye to numerous egregious holding penalties and for throwing a game-determining pass interference flag on a ball that was utterly uncatcable...

 

...but DO NOT blame the Patriots' defense for this loss.  Had the Patriots won this game, it would have been all about their defense.  New England had three turnovers deep in their own territory and the Giants walked away with only ten points.  Up until the final four minutes of the game, the "last ranked" defense in the league had given up exactly ZERO points on drives that started with New York returning a kick.  They had held Eli Manning to 1 for 11 on third downs.  Then the yellow flags started flying, the holds continued to not be called, and on the most critical play of the game, our best safety was removed from the game due to injury, a player who had not been in for a single snap was thrust on the field, and he proceeded to draw a pass interference penalty on a ball that was sailing 15 feet over the reciever's head. 

This was Super Bowl XLII all over again, except with much less at stake.  The Giant's defense rattled Brady. New England made some critical mistakes. The Patriots defense held firm.  New England clawed their way back to a lead. Then the referees took the game over and nailed the coffin shut by bailing out Eli Manning repeatedly on his final drive. 

For a few minutes after the game, I seriously thought that I had just experienced some sort of hallucinogenic post-traumatic stress disorder flashback. 

 

So what can we take away from this game...

- The Patriots need to hang onto the ball.  They've had two games this season where they've had four turnovers and not surprisingly, have lost them both.

- The Patriots defense is coming along.  In three of the last four games, @ Pittsburgh excluded, they've been pulling their weight and not depending on the offense to bail them out.

- Teams are really keying in on how to rattle Tom Brady.  The recipe has been found out and teams are starting to take advantage.  The O-line needs to be stronger for starters to help fend off the pressure.  The offense also has to get a bit more creative, making better use of guys like Woodhead and Faulk and mixing up some screen passes to keep the defenses honest. 

- The Pats need to take care of business against New York and Buffalo.  The bulk of their remaining schedule includes Indy, KC, Miami, Washington, and Denver.  Even if they don't win the division, there's no reason they can't get a wild card.  If they just split NY/Buffalo, that should be good enough for 12-4 or 11-5. I honestly have a hard time believing the Jets or Bills will finish better than 11-5.

- I don't trust Houston or whoever stumbles to the AFC West title, so if New England can win their division, that's still a first-round bye.  I'd love nothing more than to see this team go for revenge again at Heinz Field in the AFC title game.  That's the type of stuff championships are made of.

- If Rex Ryan signs Bernard Pollard this week, Belichick had better just sit Tom Brady and roll the dice with Hoyer.  Tonight's game was eerily similar to 2007, and we all know what happened the next game...

 

For the first time since the Super Bowl that shall not be mentioned here on FoxboroBlog.com, the New England Patriots (5-1) try to bounce back after their loss to the Steelers last week against the New York Giants. All the talk from the offseason about this game centers around New York’s QB Eli Manning calling himself one of the “elite” quarterbacks in the game.

This year, Eli has played like an elite quarterback considering he only has five interceptions on the season. New York, under head coach Tom Coughlin, has been a team that is known for playing towards the level of their competition (Ex: Beating the Eagles, but then losing to the Seahawks). Their team has also been injury plagued the whole season. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw, wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, Defensive End Jason Pierre-Paul, and center David Boss could all miss the game due to injury.

Here are three keys to today’s game in Foxboro:

1. Webster’s Book of Interceptions: If the pass rush is hindered severely by the loss of Pierre-Paul, the Giants will need to get excellent play out of the secondary. If you are looking at who will guard Wes Welker, the Giants don’t even know that will be yet. Their best cornerback due to the injury of Terrelle Thomas in the preseason is Corey Webster. Webster is known in New York for having the interception of Brett Favre in OT of the 2007 NFC Championship Game to set up the game-winning field goal. I look for the man with three interceptions on the season to cover Deion Branch in this game, which will be crucial for third down situations. He even won the Buffalo game with his INT of Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fourth quarter.

2. Cruz’n It Along: The Giants might not have their big deep threat Hakeem Nicks for this game as we mentioned earlier, but against New England’s 32^nd ranked pass defense. There is Mario Manningham and even tight end Jake Ballard who can play a factor, but I want to focus on Victor Cruz. Cruz has become the young, emerging deep threat for New York catching 28 receptions for 497 yards and four touchdowns. He had his moment in the sun in the 2010 preseason, but now he has become one of Eli’s favorite targets. With the way Devin McCourty has been covering, Cruz can probably have 100 yards and a TD in this game.

3. Law of Averages: You might be wondering why I named this key law of averages. Well, if you checked out my new radio show on Blog Talk Radio called Kickin’ It with Keeler, you would know why. Anyway, the reason is because its like gravity, what goes up must come down. For Eli, eventually he is going to turn back into the old interception throwing Manning. He hasn’t thrown an interception since he threw three last month against the Seahawks, when he threw three. I look for Manning to have one or two interceptions that change the course of this game because the Patriots’ defense when they rarely are on, always finds a way to force the big turnover.

PREDICTION: BB does not only stand for Bill Belichick, but it also stands for bounce back! The Patriots are angry and want to avenge both the loss last week and the Super Bowl from five years ago. The Giants are banged up in a lot of areas and as good as Eli Manning has been, I don’t think he can play a perfect game on the road with the lack of game changers they will have on offense. Also, keep an eye on the Patriots using the run game more with BenJarvus Green-Ellis since New York gave up 100+ yards rushing to Reggie Bush of all people last week. Brady bounces back and the defense forces some big turnovers as their own statement.

PATRIOTS 28 GIANTS 17

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Tom Brady

Defenses have been attacking the Pats offense differently in recent weeks, and Brady and the offense have had some difficulty adjusting. Things won’t get much easier this week against a Giants D that leads the league in sacks. Only two teams have allowed fewer passing TDs than the Giants this year, so it would be prudent to temper expectations for Brady at 250 yards passing and 1-2 TDs.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

After lighting the world on fire in the early part of the season, Welker has cooled considerably with opposing defenses keying on shutting him down with their top cover corner. He will face another tough assignment this week against a stout Giants pass D featuring Aaron Ross and Corey Webster. I think he’ll find a way to get his hands on the ball 5-7 times for 75 yards and a possible score, but anything more than that would be gravy. The Pats typically use Branch more on intermediate routes, so it would be a surprise to see him exceed 4 catches for 50 yards as the Pats focus on getting the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Kevin Faulk/Danny Woodhead

The heavy use of Faulk came as a bit of a surprise last week, as he led the team in touches with six carries and five catches. BJGE was limited in part because the score dictated more passing formations, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back with a 14 touch, 75 yard outing this week. Faulk is worth an add in deep leagues, particularly PPR leagues. Expect somewhere around 8 touches for 40-50 yards. He should take the bulk of the carries Woodhead usually handles, making Woodhead expendable in all but the deepest leagues.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

I am extremely high on Hernandez this week. After watching the offensive line (particularly the tackles) struggle to contain the pass rush, Gronkowski could be called on more as a blocker against a menacing Giants pass rush. Hernandez should see plenty of opportunities on short and intermediate routes when he is matched up on linebackers and safeties, where he presents a mismatch. Look for the two tight ends to divvy up 140 yards and 1-2 scores, with a slight edge in production going to Hernandez.

Stephen Gostkowski

Another ho-hum week. Expect 1-2 FGs and 3-4 XPs.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams

The Giants have allowed 15 sacks this year and turned the ball over just 7 times. They’ve played a few weaker opponents, but I think it’s a fool’s errand to project anything more than 2 sacks and 1-2 turnovers. Eli is not as mistake-prone as the media would like you to believe. I see the Giants putting up north of 20 points this week. You can find better options than the Pats D.

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