Hours before kickoff, I was talking to a friend about how I thought the Patriots would come out against the Chiefs on Monday night.

My prediction: A slow first half with the Chiefs moving the ball and the Pats settling for a field goal before exploding in the second half.

Well, 34 points later, they proved me correct.

The Patriots put a whooping on Tyler Palko and the Chiefs anemic offense as the defense allowed a mere three points while the offense rebounded from a shaky start to score 24 points in the second half.

Let’s take a look at our risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Rob Gronkowski: Let’s just pencil him in for a touchdown and a spot on our Risers list every week. The man is simply…The Man. The former second-round pick is far and away the top tight end in football. His versatility as an in-line blocker, dependable red-zone target and big play threat makes him undefendable.  Gronkowski made two of the most impressive plays by a tight end, racing 52 yards for a touchdown and later back flipping his way into the end zone for his second score. Two years into his career, he’s already breaking records, becoming the fastest to 20 TDs by a tight end in only 26 games.

2. Kyle Arrington: His transformation from an undrafted free agent from Hofstra to starting corner to top playmaker has been a pleasant surprise. Arrington picked off two more passes to increase his league-leading total to seven. While he doesn’t have elite physical skills and isn’t a “shutdown corner,” he has a knack for getting his hands on the ball. Turnovers end drives, and Arrington has been a drive killer.

3. Running game: It finally re-appeared. BenJarvus Green-Ellis overcame a slow start to grind out 81 tough yards on 20 carries while adding a 25-yard reception. Danny Woodhead averaged 5.4 yards per carry, but the biggest surprise was the successful debut of Shane Vereen. The second-rounder had yet to carry the ball after finding himself buried on the depth chart, but carried the ball eight times for 39 yards and a TD in the fourth quarter. He displayed impressive speed and quick feet in his limited work.

4. Julian Edelman: The man without a defined role has become the jack-of-all-trades. He’s the new Troy Brown. Edelman worked as the dime back and made a few impressive tackles and finally exploded for a 72-yard punt return for a touchdown that had the crowd in a frenzy. The ultra quick, versatile former college quarterback has played many invaluable roles for this team.

 

Fallers

1. Sebastian Vollmer: Last year’s second-team All Pro right tackle has been somewhat of a disappointment this year. He’s missed time with a back injury and has looked rusty since he returned to the starting lineup. He’s been particularly inconsistent in pass protection and was worked over by Tamba Hali several times. Luckily the Pats have some depth with Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon available should Vollmer get benched for performance or injury.

2. Logan Mankins: While he certainly hasn’t pulled a Chris Johnson, Mankins definitely hasn’t played up to his potential after signing a lucrative deal this offseason. The All-Pro left guard picked up two more penalties to increase his team lead to eight. That’s unacceptable for a veteran, especially for a guy considered to be the best at his position.

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The New England Patriots showed the world last Sunday night why they are still the team to beat in the AFC East. Now, they have a great opportunity after their win against the Jets Sunday night to finish the year with the best record in the conference. Nobody has less than 3 losses in the AFC and the Patriots finish the year with the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. It all starts Monday night as the 6-3 Patriots take on the 4-5 Chiefs at Gillette Stadium.

This year has been an up and down year for Kansas City and head coach Todd Haley. After losing their first three games, they went on a four game win streak and made people think they were contenders in a wide open AFC West. Now, they are without their dynamic running back Jamaal Charles and former Patriot fan favorite Matt Cassel at quarterback and the team has had back-to-back losses to the Miami Dolphins and the Denver Broncos. This is a team though that knows the Patriots with Scott Pioli as the GM and Romeo Crennel as their defensive coordinator.

Here are three keys to the game in Foxboro Monday:

1. Win the Battle, Win The War: With the Chiefs starting Tyler Palko at quarterback, Kansas City will have to rely on their new standout running back. His name is Jackie Battle and he has become the 2011 version of Arian Foster. Battle has 87 carries for 403 yards and a touchdown this year. However he has only touched the ball 42 times in the last three games. I look for him to get at least 20-+ carries in this game. Battle will need all the ammo against the Patriots, who have the 9^th best run defense in the NFL.

2. Crennel’s Know-How: Romeo Crennel knows the Patriots’ system inside and out because he was one of the reasons why New England won three Super Bowls in four years with the great coaching trio of himself, Belichick, and Charlie Weis. Now, a young Chiefs’ defense will look to make plays against Tom Brady. Derrick Johnson is still a force to be reckoned with in the middle of field at linebacker and Tamba Hali has six sacks as their lead pass rusher. However, keep an eye on two guys in Brandon Flowers and Kendrick Lewis at cornerback who have seven interceptions between them. If Brady has some throws tipped, those guys can change the game with one interception.

3. Put A Bowe On Him: We all know that the Patriots struggle to stop the pass. They took some great strides last week, but now they have to continue that progress likely without second year cornerback Devin McCourty who has a shoulder injury. The main downfield threat for KC is Dwayne Bowe. With Steve Breaston underachieving in his first season at Arrowhead Stadium, Bowe is going to be Palko’s security blanket in this game. In his fifth season, the former LSU grad has 41 catches for 663 yards and four touchdowns. It hurts if they do not have Pat Chung at safety as well, but the Patriots can use Kyle Arrington on Bowe and keep him somewhat in check.

PREDICTION: You all know how I love to pick close games. I can’t do that here. After watching last week, the Patriots seem to be out for a 2^nd half push to gather some momentum for the postseason. The division is opening up to them with a loss by the Jets on Thursday and two straight losses from the Bills heading into Sunday. If Cassel was playing for KC, I would give them a shot, but it is tough to se Tyler Palko beat Tom Brady on the road in his first career start. Look for New England to get out to a comfortable lead and then pound it with the Law Firm against the league’s 26^th ranked run defense.

PATRIOTS 34 CHIEFS 14

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Stick a fork in me.  I'm done.  Last week was my shot at redemption in this game, but I went down hard, whiffing on my Buffalo, Detroit, and Tampa picks.  Had I nailed those games, I'd have cut my deficit in half.  Still, on the flip-side, if I had gone with the crowd, I'd still be six games out of the lead.  Better to go down swinging then quietly live in mediocrity. 

This week, the picks are fairly uniform.  Stephen will should remain in the lead as he has a two-game cusion, but left the door open by selecting the one-win Dolphins.  If the Bills and Chargers both win this week, he will find himself tied with Jason. 

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
OAK @ MIN
DAL @ WAS
TEN @ ATL
PHI @ NYG
BUF @ MIA
SD @ CHI
CIN @ BAL
Last Week	3-4	6-1	5-2	6-1	5-2
Record	30-28	37-21	34-24	39-19	36-22

Tom Brady

The only thing that limits Brady’s upside this week is the possibility that he’ll be pulled in the third or fourth quarter as the team salts away a big lead. His floor is probably 300+ yards and 3 TDs, and there is a strong potential for more.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Stevan Ridley

This game shapes up to be a blowout for the Pats, and the Chiefs give up 134 yards per game on the ground. I think this trio will eclipse that average. Look for BJGE to rack up 70+ yards and a TD, Woodhead to put up around 50-60 total yards and Ridley to flirt with 50 total yards as well. Any New England running back should be a better-than-average play this week. I wouldn’t even fault a team for trotting Kevin Faulk out there if they’re desperate.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch/Chad Ochocinco

Welker has scored just once in his past five games, but he stands a decent chance of reaching paydirt this week against a KC defense that has given up 16 passing TDs on the year. Look for him to eclipse 80 yards receiving, but don’t be surprised if he sits for part of the second half if the Pats have a big lead since he's still nursing a few minor dings. Branch has been one of Brady’s favorite targets in the red zone, but he hasn’t put up big yardage numbers. Brady should have time to find him downfield against a weak pass rush, so he could be in line for one of his best games of the season with 70+ yards and a score. If you are desperate because of bye weeks, Ochocinco could be a defensible play as well since he figures to get plenty of reps if the Pats build a big lead and protect their stars.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

Gronkowski has been murder on opposing secondaries this year, and I’d expect the Chiefs to focus on containing him in the passing game. The Chiefs give up a ton of yards through the air though, so expect Gronk to still get north of 60 yards and possibly score. I am high on Hernandez again this week, as KC has been vulnerable to the big play. Hernandez should find the end zone this week and will likely top 50 yards receiving.

Stephen Gostkowski

It could be all extra points for Gostkowski this week. Look for 4+ XP and no more than 1 FG.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This is a good week to use the Pats D. The Chiefs will be without Matt Cassel and should struggle to move the ball with backup Tyler Palko under center. KC has allowed 22 sacks this year, so look for the Pats to rack up around 4 sacks and a turnover or two with around 14 points allowed. They are easily a top 10 play this week.

Let’s face it.

We’re spoiled.

Winning has become the expectation and the Patriots have rarely failed to disappoint.

Led by a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback and arguably one of the top five coaches of all time, the Patriots captured three Super Bowl titles in the past decade.

But those days of Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi and Ty Law making crunch time plays are long gone.

It’s 2011, and the defense features Andre Carter, Rob Ninkovich and Kyle Arrington as its top playmakers.

They’re not household names.

The Redskins let Carter walk after a poor season as a 3-4 outside linebacker, Ninkovich is a former fifth-round pick who has only started for two seasons and Arrington was an undrafted free agent from Hofstra.

While the talent may not be flashy, the Patriots still remain one of the best in the business at managing a roster, according to Matt Williamson of ESPN and Scouts Inc.

“It’s easy to be critical of Belichick lately because they’re so light in the secondary and the defense isn’t elite anymore,” he said. “But the standards are different in New England. They want depth. When guys go down, they still have good players around them.”

This method of building the middle of the roster is a far cry from the Colts’ top-heavy model.

“They put studs around Manning and spend money on Freeney, Mathis, Clark and Wayne,” Williamson explained. “The problem is they put all their eggs in one basket. The eggs are all cracked because there’s no Manning and no depth. The bottom of their roster is one of the worst in the league.”

One way the Patriots have built a strong, but affordable talent base is by trading down in the draft.

Since 2006, the Pats have drafted 19 players in the second or third rounds. While there have been some hits – Sebastian Vollmer, Pat Chung and Rob Gronkowski, there have been an equal number of misses.

In 2006, the team traded up with the Packers to draft former Florida wide receiver Chad Jackson, a 6-foot-1, 213-pounder with 4.3 speed who was expected to be the No. 1 receiver. Jackson was cut in 2008 and is in the UFL. Meanwhile, the Packers selected Greg Jennings who is one of the best receivers in the NFL.

Drafting and developing receivers has been one of the few weaknesses in the Belichick era as Jackson, Bethel Johnson and Brandon Tate all flamed out.

Williamson said the complexity of the offense can make it difficult for receivers to maximize their talents.

“You have to adjust on the fly and be a quick thinker,” he said. “I’m not sure Ochocinco, Chad Jackson and Brandon Tate fit that mold. A bigger wideout with speed that can get deep is certainly on their priority list.”

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There's chaos brewing on the board this week, with teams flying up and down all over the place.  Both Pittsburgh and New England plummet four positions, but not as far as the Bills who went from #7 last week, to off the board this time around.  Then there's the Giants who have strung together some impressive wins and are rewarded with a swift climb up the rankings.  And despite all the volatility last week, there's no way of telling what we're in for now as 8 of our 12 teams are going head to head this week.
 

Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
1		1	0	9-0	vs. Buccaneers
		The Packers dominated the Vikings, finally laying an undeniable smack down on an inferior team.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
2		3	+1	8-1	vs. Cardinals
		If there was any doubt that the Niners are for real, it was erased on Sunday when they took down the Giants and proved that I was wrong for pegging them #3 last week.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
3		2	-1	6-3	vs. Eagles
		No shame in losing a close game on the road to a solid team.  The Giants still have my respect for their win at Gillette.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
4		6	+2	7-3	Bye Week
		As do the Steelers for their win over New England.  Pittsburgh may have lost to Baltimore twice this season, but at least they haven't blown multiple gimmee games against teams like Seattle.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
5		8	+3	6-3	vs. Chiefs
		Without question the win over the Jets on Sunday night was the best Patriots victory since...   Well, the last time they routed the Jets on National TV.  Shame on anyone who doubted them these past few weeks.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
6		7	+1	7-3	Bye Week
		The Saints pulled out a big win on the road to cement their dominance of the division - just not as impressive as the Patriots' big win on the road to cement their dominance of the division.  Spots 3-7 could really go in any order, so that's my logic for this one.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
7		4	-3	6-3	vs. Bengals
		The Ravens show up against the good teams and completely fall apart against the bottom-feeders.  Sorry, I want to respect them, but they are giving me every reason not to with their inconsistency.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
8		10	+2	6-3	@ Ravens
		The Bengals looked solid in Pittsburgh, but couldn't get the job done.  If they want to be taken seriously in the AFC North, they absolutely must pull out a tough road win over Baltimore.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
9		9	0	7-3	Bye Week
		The Texans would be right up near the top had they not lost Matt Schaub for the season.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
10		N/A	N/A	6-3	vs. Chargers
		Suddenly, the Bears are back from the dead and are looking like they may just be the only thing that stands between Green Bay and a 16-0 season.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
11		11	0	5-4	vs. Titans
		The Falcons almost had their big win, but couldn't pull it out in overtime.  Still, given their division, I think they have the inside track for the 2nd wild card spot over the 3rd place NFC North team.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
12		5	-7	6-3	vs. Panthers
		Which brings us to the Lions, who are in a bit of a tailspin after that 5-0 start.  A 1-3 follow up is pretty disappointing and is bringing some doubt into that playoff spot they seemed to all but have locked up a few weeks back.

The Patriots opened as 12.5-point favorites as they host the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 11.

I identified a trend for the Pats in last week’s column, and after watching them run roughshod over the Jets, I’m ready to anoint that trend as gospel until proven wrong -- the Patriots will struggle against teams with a strong pass rush and an elite passing game, and they will pretty much waylay everyone else (and yes, I just managed to work “roughshod” and “waylay” into the same sentence … you’re welcome). I’m sticking with that logic again this week. The Chiefs have recorded the fewest sacks in the league, their passing offense ranks 28^th, and their starting QB left the game early on Sunday due to a hand contusion. The Patriots shouldn’t just cover this spread; they should make anybody who picks against them feel foolish by halftime.

With that said, Kansas City really deserves a mulligan on this entire season due to the injuries they’ve faced. Only Indy could make a legitimate claim for the title of Team Most Affected By Injuries in 2011, and that’s only because the Colts have suffered most of their humiliation in primetime. If something happens to Tamba Hali or Dewayne Bowe, they’ll be trotting out a lineup that might have trouble competing in the PAC-10.

The Pats have faced a tough slate in recent weeks, but the schedule gets a whole lot softer beginning this week. I expect the Patriots to cover the spread comfortably.

Other Lines I Like

Cowboys (-7.5) @ Redskins

It’s amazing what happens when the Cowboys aren’t wasting downs by handing the ball to Felix Jones, only to watch him cower behind his offensive linemen and fall harmlessly to the ground behind the line of scrimmage and curl into the fetal position like a scared little girl (in the interest of full disclosure, I owned a few Felix fantasy football shares this year, so that may add to my bitterness). The Cowboys have looked like a different team with DeMarco Murray running the ball, and I’ve got an ostrich-sized portion of egg on my face for picking against them last week as they rolled up a 37-point win. The Redskins have been hit with a wave of injuries in recent weeks, and they weren’t really that good to begin with.

Ravens (-7) vs. Bengals

This week’s slate of games are so tough, I’m actually content projecting Joe Flacco to not underperform against a team he should beat with relative ease. Most bettors would rather suck an exhaust pipe than bet on the Ravens after the damage they’ve caused sports betting bankrolls over the past four weeks, but I’m think it’s safe to say they’ll rebound from Sunday’s sleepwalking session and play angry, inspired football with the division title at risk of slipping from their grasp. I’ll need to see how this Bengals team responds to the loss of Leon Hall before I put any virtual money on them.

Lions (-6.5) vs. Carolina

The Panthers might have the league’s worst defensive unit outside of Indianapolis. The Titans finally solved the Newton puzzle last week by spying him and taking away the middle of the field for the tight ends. It will take the Panthers time to adjust to this look on offense, so it's a really bad time for them to draw one of the best defensive lines in football.

Rams (-2.5) vs. Seahawks

This game is a bit of a toss-up. I lean toward the Rams since they actually have a few playmakers on offense, and because the Seahawks typically don’t travel well. Truth be told, the real reason I included this game in my picks is to complain that we have to watch these two teams on Monday Night Football in a few weeks. On the plus side, I guess most fans won’t have to worry about using the DVR to record How I Met Your Mother or Terra Nova that night.

In all seriousness, it will be more entertaining for me to watch CGI dinosaurs who somehow have the same predatory skills as Stormtroopers than suffer through another primetime Rams-Seahawks game.

2011 Record ATS 26-25-2

2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

We shouldn’t have doubted them.

Three games in a row? Really?

This is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

The dynamic duo who don’t lose back-to-back-to-back games.

Skeptics who believed Belichick had lost his touch, or Brady had begun his inevitable decline were proven wrong Sunday night, myself included.

Led by an undermanned, scrap heap defense, the Patriots rolled to a 37-19 victory against the Jets in the Meadowlands.

The victory placed the Pats in sole possession of first place in the AFC East, setting themselves up for an easy run to the playoffs with a cakewalk of opponents on their slate.

Sunday’s victory proved you can never count out Belichick and Brady who are now the winningest head coach/quarterback combination in NFL history.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

 

Risers

1. Rob Gronkowski: It may be premature, but I envision Gronkowski being the Tony Gonzalez of this decade. The man simply cannot be defended. Gronk makes the list for the sixth time this season after posting his second straight game with eight catches and 100+ yards. He found paydirt three times, although one was called back on a penalty and was a constant matchup nightmare for the Jets smaller defensive backs.

2. Andre Carter: Before the season started, I singled out Andre Carter as the free agent who would have the biggest impact in 2011. So far, Carter has made good on my prediction. The former Pro Bowler put on one of the most impressive defensive performances I’ve seen, setting the franchise record with 4.5 sacks and a ridiculous eight quarterback hits. Carter abused D’Brickashaw Ferguson, who’s made back-to-back Pro Bowls, with his speed on the edge. He already has nine sacks in as many games and would be my pick as the team’s defensive MVP.

3. Tom Brady: It didn’t start off pretty, but Tom Terrific showed up when it mattered. The Patriots squandered some early opportunities in the red zone and failed to move the ball when given bad field position before turning it on in the second half. Brady settled down and took advantage of excellent protection to pick apart the overhyped Jets pass defense. Using the no-huddle offense, Brady completed 11 straight passes and spread the ball around well. He re-established himself as a top MVP candidate.

4. Rob Ninkovich: When I see #50 on the field, I get reminded of Mike Vrabel. Like the former Patriot great, Ninkovich doesn’t win with great athletic ability, but maximizes his ability because of good instincts, toughness and effort. The former Saints backup turned starter has been a solid presence in a shaky linebacker group. While he hasn’t racked up big sack totals, Ninkovich’s two interceptions were drive killers for the Jets. His pick-six was a thing of beauty as he made a great read on a check-down by Sanchez and took it to the house to put the icing on the cake.

 

Fallers

1. Running game: No matter who was in the backfield, the Patriots barely made a dent in the ground attack. The Jets bottled up Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the Pats basically avoided running the ball until Danny Woodhead took over during the no-huddle offense. As good as the Patriots are at throwing the ball, it will be important to establish the run come playoff time.

2. Antwaun Molden: Got beat for an easy touchdown by Plaxico Burress and hasn’t proven himself to be a reliable cover guy. He has the physical tools, but doesn’t seem to be in position to make plays. Hopefully Devin McCourty’s injury won’t keep him out of the lineup too long.

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It has been a long time in Patriot land where a Patriots’ fan can say that this team is reeling. Now, the 5-3 New England Patriots travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the 5-3 New York Jets in a battle for first place in the AFC East. The Patriots fell last week to the New York Giants by giving up a late touchdown to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left in the 4^th quarter. There is a lot of negative vibes surrounding this team and it only got worse when they released Albert Haynesworth earlier this week.

Three weeks ago, the Jets had the same negative vibes the Patriots have now. However, Mark Sanchez is starting to find chemistry with his receivers, especially Plaxico Burress. Rex Ryan’s defense has only given up 38 points in the last three games, which includes the forcing of eight turnovers. Tom Brady has not won a game in the New Meadowlands Stadium. Considering that the Jets are 4-0 at home this year, this will be a tall order for Brady and company Sunday night.

Here are my keys to the game Sunday Night:

1. Ground And Pound: With all the talk surrounding the two quarterbacks in this game, I think the team that runs the best is going to win. Ever since center Nick Mangold returned for the Jets, Rex has seen the ground and pound come back successfully. During their three game winning, New York has averaged 130.7 rushing yards per game after having just 76.2 the first five games. This element is huge for New York if they want to make Sanchez comfortable with going to his strength, which is the play action pass.
   
   The Patriots need to, dare I say, run the football more! This will re-create the balance they had the first quarter of the season that made the offensive rhythm much more effective. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the only running back to go over 100 yards against New York this year. If the Law Firm can make the field shorter, this allows Brady to go to his short and intermediate passing game.

2. Revis Island: With Chad Ochocinco being invisible on the Patriots’ offense, Wes Welker has to continue to have 9+ catches and 100+ yards to win football games for the Pats. I don’t think that is going to happen against Revis. Darrelle Revis always keeps other teams’ wide receivers in check on his island. Welker did make a 73 yard catch in the first meeting, but if you take that away, Revis held him to a miniscule 51 yards. This is because he jams him at the line of scrimmage and does not allow Welker to get free for his yards after the catch.

3. Plexi-Glass: I think we all know that the Patriots have the 32^nd ranked pass defense in the NFL. This is going to be a chance for Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress to redeem themselves for the lackluster performances they had up in Foxboro. The guy I want to focus on is Burress. After chemistry rifts between him and Sanchez to start the year, Plax has gotten it together. He had a three touchdown game against the Chargers and had five catches for 79 yards last week against the Bills. Sanchez is going to look at him towards the middle of the field and this will hurt the Patriots, who have no depth at the cornerback position. If both Holmes and Burress make an impact, it will be a long night for New England.

 

PREDICTION: The Patriots have not lost three in a row since 2002 and Mark Sanchez has never lost to New England at home. The odds are stacked up against New England, but I thought the same thing around this time last year after they lost to the Cleveland Browns. However, this is where Belichick coached teams usually rise to the occasion. For the Patriots to win, they have to run the football with the Law-Firm. If you are too one dimensional, Rex’s defense will feast on that. This will be a close rivalry game and I think Brady takes the ball at the end with his team trailing and leads the team to a last second win, leaving no time for the defense.

PATRIOTS 23 JETS 20

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Tom Brady

While New England hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard in recent weeks, Brady’s fantasy production has been steady but unspectacular. Don’t expect things to change this week, as the Jets’ pass defense should hold him well under 300 yards passing. Anything more than 2 TDs would be a mild surprise.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Kevin Faulk

The Law Firm steamrolled the Jets for 140+ yards in Week 5, and the Pats are likely to feature the running game again as they face a vulnerable New York front seven. He won’t exceed those totals, but expecting somewhere close to 80-100 yards and a 50-50 shot at a score is reasonable. Woodhead and Faulk have mainly been used in pass protection and as safety valves. If Faulk is healthy, expect him to steal the majority of Woodhead’s touches out of the backfield.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

Welker racked up 5 catches for 124 yards while matched up against Revis in Week 5. Defenses are keying on Welker, and I’d expect him to be limited to 5-6 catches and less than 100 yards, with a score unlikely. Branch roasted Cromartie for 7 catches and a score the first time around, and I wouldn’t be afraid to use him as a flex this week with a 4-5 catch, 60-70 yard outing a distinct possibility.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

It’s impossible to bench either of these guys, as they combined for 13 targets in the first contest against the Jets and have accounted for more than a third of New England’s passing offense this year. Because Gronkowski is the better run blocker, he should be on the field more. I think he is a stone-cold lock for 5+ catches and 60+ yards with a score very likely. Hernandez should come in around 4-50-1 as well.

Stephen Gostkowski

2 FGs, 3-4 XPs.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This unit still barely merits consideration in most leagues. The Jets allow roughly two sacks and a turnover per game, and I’d expect New England to be right around those numbers. I have a weird feeling the Pats will end up scoring on defense or special teams, but that is just a wild hunch that is not really backed up by any statistical analysis.

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