Week 13 NFL Pick 'Em

Written by Derek Hanson on .

Last week, I did something that I thought was impossible.

Oh. And. Seven.

That's right, I went all 2008 Detroit Lions with my picks last week.  And remember, even though Rick managed to go 7-0, it's actually much harder to whiff on every single pick.  After all, we are trying to straight-up pick the winners here.  5-2 and 6-1 weeks aren't uncommon at all.    But to actually predict the winners and be wrong every single time...  Wow. 

But let's turn our attention to the folks who aren't 17 games out of first place.  Stephen has a sizeable lead, and the level of interest for the rest of this game comes down to GB vs. NYG, CIN vs. PIT, and TEN vs. BUF.  If he hits on all three of those, the game may be all but his.  If not, then the door is open for one of the other three people not named Derek to win this game.

Game Derek Jason Rick Stephen Trevor
GB @ NYG

CIN @ PIT

TEN @ BUF

DET @ NO

ATL @ HOU

OAK @ MIA

DEN @ MIN

Last Week 0-7 5-2 7-0 6-1
6-1
Record
34-38 46-26 47-25 51-21 47-25

Foxboro Blog Top 12: Week 12

Written by Derek Hanson on .

After a wild Thanksgiving Weekend, we have some new faces in the Top 12 and a lot of swapping up and down near the top of the board.  This week #6 plays #8 and #7 plays #9, so the middle of the board will be the place to keep your eye on.  Also a loss to a team like the Colts, Browns, or Rams could send one of our contenders tumbling...
 

Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
1 logo 1
0 11-0 @ Giants
The Pack are looking like prime candidates to match the Patriots' 16-0.  I say let 'em have it.  Then the Pats can play the role of the Giants in Indy and make Green Bay feel the pain of 18-1.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
2

logo

3
+1 8-3 vs. Colts
The Patriots have learned to play defense while three of their arguably Top 6 defensive players are injured. (Chung, McCourty, Spikes).  If the D can hold, then the offense is diverse enough now, where I don't believe they will stall out like the did in the playoffs the past two years.  It's all about Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, and Branch staying healthy and giving Brady options to throw to.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
3

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4
+1 8-3 @ Browns
You could argue that the Ravens deserve to be #2 after knocking off the Niners.  However, their ugly losses continue to haunt them and the Patriots looked every bit as solid in dismantling Philly.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
4 logo 6
+3 8-3 vs. Lions
The Saints are making a serious case for Green Bay not being a total lock for the Super Bowl.  My only question is how Brees and Co. will fare in Lambeau in January.  Global warming anyone?
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
5 logo 2
-3 9-2 vs. Rams
A tight loss to Baltimore is no cause for a three spot drop, but things are so close in spots 2-6 that the slightest error can send you tumbling.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
6 logo 5
-1 8-3
vs. Bengals
Pittsburgh looked less than impressive in their win over KC.  They just haven't been all that impressive since they rose to the occasion against the Pats.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
7 logo 8 +1
7-4 @ Texans
It's not unreasonable to think the Saints could fall against the Lions.  So there could be more at stake than just the top wild card slot when the Falcons play Houston.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
8 logo 7 -1 7-4 @ Steelers
HUGE game for the Bengals here.  It's time to prove they can play with the big boys.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
9 logo 10
+1 8-3 vs. Atlanta
Losing your QB for the season in back-to-back weeks is just brutal.  Still, Houston should be able to hang onto the South and be at home for their first playoff game ever. 
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
10 logo N/A N/A 7-4 @ Dolphins
The Raiders can play D, they can run, and week by week, Carson Palmer is improving their passing game.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
11 logo 9 -2
7-4 vs. Chiefs
The loss of Jay Cutler is just a killer for the Bears.  They were potential Super Bowl contenders and would be on the opposite end of this rankings board had he not gotten injured.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
12 logo N/A N/A 6-5 @ Vikings
Sorry Jets - Buffalo had every opportunity to beat you at the end and couldn't execute.  Sorry Cowboys - you should have thomped Miami, not eeked out the win.  Sorry Giants - you've lost three games in a row.  Sorry Tebow Haters - there's no denying that the guy just wins and has rightfully put Denver into this week's Top 12.  


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Opening Lines: Week 12

Written by Derek Hanson on .

The Patriots opened as 20.5-point favorites as they prepare to host the Colts in Week 13.

If you’re looking for a 20-point favorite, you’ll usually need to dip into the college football schedule during homecoming week. The Pats saw these sorts of lines on a regular basis in the 2007 season, but this is a crazy number for this year’s team. I’m not sure exactly what number I expected to see this morning, but I damn near created a messy 20.5-point spread in my pants when I saw this week’s number.

It almost feels wrong to make fun of the Colts this year. It’s like picking on the smallest kid on the playground who also has a speech impediment. Every week that they come out of the tunnel, the players look as if they’re on their way to a funeral. Every time the camera pans to Jim Caldwell, he looks like a prime candidate to star in one of those Southwest “Wanna Get Away” commercials. They’re basically the dancer in the hole-in-the-wall strip club who has been shaking it 15 years too long. If my hate for the Colts weren’t pounded into my soul over the past decade, it would actually make me sad to witness.

This spread speaks to just how bad the Colts have been this season. They have a -177 point differential on the year, which puts them on pace for the second-worst point differential since the winless 1976 Buccaneers (worse than the 0-16 Lions in 08 and nearly as bad as the 99 Rams). They have among the league’s worst offenses (30th in PPG, 31st YPG) and defenses (32nd in PPG, 29th YPG). Their average margin of loss is 16 points per game, so a 20.5-point spread against a high-powered offense doesn’t seem entirely out of line.

Applying our Patriots Means Test (pass rush plus passing offense), the Colts have recorded just 18 sacks on the year and have the league’s 30th-ranked passing offense. That means they’re going to lose by a whole lot. And given the history between these two teams, I’d expect New England to keep the pedal to the metal. I’ll pick the Pats to cover.

Other Lines I Like

Cowboys (-4.5) @ Cardinals

I’m not buying the Cards yet. They needed another long punt return and a last-second field goal to sneak past the second-worst team in the league last week. Kolb may be back, but I’m not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing for this offense. Dallas has had extra time to prepare after the Thanksgiving game, and they’ve played against a pair of underrated defenses the past two weeks. They should cruise in this one.

Chargers (-3) @ Jaguars

We know exactly what both of these teams bring to the table. The Jags are good against the run, but recently lost their best DB. Blaine Gabbert is the gold standard if you play in a fantasy league where the object is to start a quarterback who doesn’t throw TDs. The Chargers treat the football like it’s covered in an angry swarm of bees, but I don’t think the Jags have enough offense to take advantage of San Diego’s mistakes.

Bengals (+7) @ Steelers

Since I’m cursed to live in a media market that includes the two best teams in the AFC North, I’ve been forced to watch an awful lot of the Bengals the past several weeks. I’m starting to believe that this team is every bit as good as their record would indicate. All four losses this year have all been by a score or less, and three of those four losses have come against teams who are 8-3 or better. Polamalu’s stupid hair couldn’t cushion the impact of a concussion last week, and Big Ben’s thumb is still a concern. The Bengals are masters of hanging around, and I think they’ll keep the Steelers on their toes this week.

Jets (-3) @ Redskins

This is one of those picks that a Patriots fan can appreciate. How much would you pay to watch the Jets lose to Washington? $50? Maybe $100? A fair price. And if the Jets win? You can at least drown your sorrows with some extra scratch. Washington is better under Grossman, but the Redskins should struggle to move the ball through the air against New York’s secondary. This is the kind of game that Sanchez usually looks terrible, the rest of the team keeps the game close, and then they pull it together at the end. Let’s still hold out hope we’re paying for a Redskins win.

2011 Record ATS 31-29-3
2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

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Week 12 Risers and Fallers: Welker and Branch a nightmare for the Dream Team

Written by Stephen Sheehan on .

A month ago, Julian Edelman looked like a man without a job.

On Sunday, he was the employee of the month.

The former college quarterback who went undrafted out of Kent State has evolved into Bill Belichick’s newest version of Troy Brown.

The speedy, long-haired slot receiver/punt returner has filled in for an injury-depleted secondary as the dime back and has not embarrassed himself.

In fact, his versatility has led teammate James Ihedigbo to nickname him “Slash.”

While he didn’t catch any passes in the Patriots’ 38-20 blowout over the Eagles, Edelman was part of a strong wide receiver group that torched the talented, but underachieving “Dream Team.”

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Wes Welker/Deion Branch: Standing a generous 5-foot-9, the veteran starting duo was largely shut out last week against Kansas City. Yesterday, the sure-handed and ultra-reliable pair torched Nnamdi Asomugha and co. to the tune of 14 catches for 240 yards and two touchdowns. While Welker and Branch are known as quicker receivers who lack deep speed, they shed that label with two explosive plays. Welker got behind safety Kurt Coleman who bit on the play action fake for a 41-yard TD, and Branch nearly scored on a 63-yard pass play where Tom Brady pointed his way and Branch altered his route.

2. Tom Brady: After a rough three-game stretch, the 2010 MVP has responded with a streak of stellar performances. Although he started off slow behind some shaky protection and early drops, Brady rebounded for perhaps his most dominant day since Week One against Miami. Number 12 averaged a ridiculous 10.62 yards per attempt and completed 70.6 percent of his 34 attempts, posting his highest passer rating since week two. Safe to say, the kid is back.

3. Rob Ninkovich: I like to think of him as Mike Vrable 2.0. He doesn’t post the gaudy sack numbers that Vrable did, but he is smart, tough and consistent. Ninko only registered three tackles, but he was disruptive in the backfield. He recorded another sack, two tackles for loss and another QB hit. He was part of a unit that held LeSean McCoy, the league’s leading rusher, to a mere 61 total yards.

4. Julian Edelman: Whether it’s in the return game, in the slot or defending the pass, Edelman continues to prove his worth. The 5-foot-10, 198-pound jitterbug took down the 6-foot-5, 232-pound Vince Young short of the goal line as part of his three-tackle effort. His quickness and toughness are much needed assets on the defense and he is still a threat in the return game.

 

Fallers

1. Backup receivers: With Chad Ochocinco inactive, fans and analysts alike were hoping to see Taylor Price get some action. The team’s third-round pick in 2010 finished the game where he started: on the bench. Instead, recently signed Tiquan Underwood played 19 forgettable snaps where he showed his signature stone hands on a horrendous drop that would have gone for a touchdown. The team needs someone reliable behind Welker/Branch, and it’s about time one of these guys steps up.

2. Pass defense: Forget the yardage totals. Forget that Vince Young finished with 400 yards and a touchdown. The fact remains the Patriots did a pretty decent job for most of the game in containing the Eagles offense. However, the first quarter showed that this secondary can be exposed, and if Vince Young can do that, imagine what Ben Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco can do come playoff time. There seemed to be some miscommunication early on between Sterling Moore and Antwuan Molden and receivers were getting behind the DBs too often. While there were definitely some positive moments (Molden’s interception and Arrington’s big hit), there’s still work to be done.

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Game Preview: Patriots @ Eagles

Written by Ricky Keeler on .

On Sunday, the Patriots (7-3) will try to extend their two game winning streak in the City of Brotherly Love when they face the 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles. New England is on a short week, but coming off a dominant 2nd half in a 34-3 win over the Kansas City Chiefs Monday night. The Patriots struggled to find offensive rhythm against KC in the 1st half, but Brady and Belichick did their usual adjustments to keep this team in the hunt for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.

The Eagles were the team that everyone hyped up in the preseason. This included media members and even their own player “cough cough” Vince Young. The “Dream Team” has been a nightmare not for opponents, but for Philly fans themselves. One of the main reasons is that the Eagles have blown five 4th quarter leads this year. However, Vince Young and company found a way to win against the Giants in New York last week without quarterback Michael Vick and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Now, you can maybe add star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha to the list. Asomugha was carted off the practice field on Thanksgiving with a left knee injury and is questionable to play at 4:15 EST Sunday afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game against the Eagles on Sunday:

  1. Keep Shady in the Sunlight: With Michael Vick’s inconsistencies at quarterback this season, LeSean “Shady” McCoy has been the core focus of this Eagles’ offense and their ability to gain rhythm during the game. Philly averages 168 yards rushing per game, which is the best in the National Football League. McCoy already has over 1000 yards this season and ten touchdowns. If the Patriots’ top ten rush defense is going to contain him and make Vince Young beat them, they have to tackle him on the first effort. Once this guy breaks the first two levels of the defense, he is tough to stop.

  2. Spread the Ball Out: With the injury to Asomugha as well as fellow cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tom Brady and the passing attack will be spreading the ball out against the defense coached by former offensive line coach Juan Castillo. Even though Philly spent a lot of money on pass rushers such as Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin, they do not have much in the linebacker department. Despite the improvements of rookie Brian Rolle and Lamar Cheney, there is not one guy that an average fan can recognize in the Philly linebacker core. Look for those great tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to get the ball early and often in this game.

  3. He Just Wins Games: All I have heard from Patriots’ fans this week is that they would rather see Vince Young than Michael Vick on Sunday. Well, be careful what you wish for. Young may be like a Tebow where he does not put up great numbers, but all he does is win. Young is 31-17 as a starter in the NFL and it showed up last week. Despite three interceptions, Young led a 16 play drive in the 4th quarter, making some crucial third down conversions on the drive culminating in the game-winning score. Plus, with the injuries to Maclin and Jackson, the Patriots have to look out for Tebow’s former teammate, Riley Cooper. Young and Cooper looked on page Sunday as Cooper had five catches for 75 yards and a touchdown.

PREDICTION: The Patriots’ offense over the last few games has not had a consistent rhythm, at least in the first half of games. Even though the Eagles’ record does not reflect it, they still have a lot of talent on the roster. I think even with Vince Young, Philly hangs around in this game. Despite Young’s troubled Titan past, he still knows how to win. The Patriots can take advantage of the fact Young is prone to interceptions. That is where Kyle Arrington plays a huge role with his league leading seven interceptions!

As for the Patriots’ offense, I think they find their groove against a team that struggles to close off games, especially at Lincoln Financial Field. New England continues to win and their defense continues to progress into December.

PATRIOTS 31 EAGLES 24

 

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Fantasy Forecast: Week 12

Written by Jason Thompson on .

Tom Brady

The Eagles do a good job of limiting opposing WRs, but that is no reason to bench Brady. Expect the Pats to feature the TEs and RBs out of the backfield, allowing Brady to put up respectable numbers. Something close to 260 yards and 2-3 scores.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Shane Vereen/Kevin Faulk/Stevan Ridely

Figuring out New England’s backfield is a bit like playing Russian Roulette, but BJGE has been the clear lead horse and commands most of the goal line touches. Figure him for 70 yards and a decent shot at a score. With bye weeks over, I wouldn’t roster any other backs besides Woodhead and Vereen in the event that The Law Firm goes down with an injury. The only other back that may be worth a spot start this week is Woodhead since he’ll be on the field a lot due to his pass protection prowess, but he is a flex play at best.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

The Eagles have a trio of elite cornerbacks, but I anticipate the Pats moving Welker around to create some favorable matchups. He won’t light the world on fire, but a 5-catch, 80-yard game is easily within reach. I’d steer clear of Branch this week. The Eagles like to bring pressure from a variety of packages, and the intermediate routes Branch usually runs will likely not be open.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

Gronkowski is separating himself from the pack in the discussion of the league’s best tight ends. No linebacker or safety for Philly can cover him, so expect him to reel in 6 balls for 100 yards and a score. Hernandez should see the field often on Sunday, and I think you can count on him for 3-4 catches, 60 yards and a score as well.

Stephen Gostkowski

3-4 XPs, 2-3 FGs. Good week to use him, particularly if the weather is favorable.

New England Defense/Special Teams

The Eagles have been sloppy this season, and a number of their skill position players are dinged up. If Philly is missing Vick or Maclin, I’d feel comfortable using them as a borderline option and hoping for 17 points allowed and a combined total of 5-6 sacks and turnovers. If both players are expected to play, I’d temper expectations to 23 points allowed, 1-2 turnovers and 2 sacks.

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Q&A Session with Eagles Eye Blog

Written by Ricky Keeler on .

 

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Thomas Jackson from Eagles Eye.  Here's what Tom had to say about the Eagles and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. Who should be the starting QB for the Eagles? Is there any regret of handing Michael Vick $100 million after one great season in the NFL?

If there's any doubt at all about Michael Vick's two cracked ribs threatening his health or impeding his play, then Vince Young should get the start against the Pats. However it goes, there's no regret in Philly in signing Vick to a $100 million long-term contract. The only number that matters there is the guaranteed money--- $40 million. That guaranteed money is what counts---and it pretty much covers his "underpaid" season in 2010, his current 2011 season, and a lock on him for 2012. That averages out to $13.3 million per season ... and that's the going rate in the NFL right now for a Top 10 QB...You gotta pay to play, and I will say that's a fair price to put on a QB you think can take you to the top. It's probably not going to happen like that for Philly with Vick... but the entertainment value he's brought to the franchise justifies the guaranteed money. The merchandise sales alone of Vick paraphenalia could justify the investment...

2. Should DeSean Jackson be paid like a number one receiver? What is your reaction to how he has handled not being paid?

DeSean Jackson is an interesting case. He deserves #1 WR money if you consider he commands double coverage on his deep routes... but where his value falls is his reluctance to go over the middle on intermediate crossing routes. And there's some common sense in that mindset of Jackson... he may have 4.1 speed, but he is a little guy (5-9, 175) and can only absorb so many big hits and concussions...Plus, his value falls when he gets too theatrical during heated moments in a close game. Only age 24, DJax has a lot of maturity and ego issues... In my mind, DeSean Jackson is a 3-year, $12 million contract talent with $5 milz guaranteed... Problem is, DJax thinks he's a 5-year, $30 million guy...no doubt a concept fueled by his agent Drew Rosenhaus.

Week 12 NFL Pick 'Em

Written by Derek Hanson on .

I'm currently 3 games over .500 in a straight-up picks game.  Pathetic, I know.  The leader is currently 25 games over .500.  Desperate times call for desperate measures.   I am in direct opposition to Stephen in 6 of 7 contests.  The sad thing is, even if I go 7-0, I would still have only cut my deficit in half.  But there's no glory in mediocrity.  I'm either going to go down hard or get back in this game.
 
Game Derek Jason Rick Stephen Trevor
GB @ DET

SF @ BAL

HOU @ JAX

NYG @ NO

BUF @ NYJ

CHI @ OAK

SD @ DEN

Last Week 4-3 4-3 6-1 6-1
5-2
Record
34-31 41-24 40-25 45-20 41-24

Foxboro Blog Top 12: Week 11

Written by Derek Hanson on .

The quicker they rise, the quicker they fall.  The Giants, who had a meteoric rise from off the board to the #2 spot in a matter of weeks, have plummeted 8 spots following their loss to Philly.  With games looming against New Orleans and Green Bay, they may not be long for the Top 12.  Echoing those sentiments are the Lions, who join the Bills as unexpected contenders who have cooled off as the leaves turned colors.  Then there are the faithful Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, and Saints who have dominated the top half of the board for much of this season.  It's not an overly exciting week for the Top 12, but with QB's dropping like flies there's plenty room for debate regarding the rankings this week.  Hopefully Week 12 will shed some light on how things should truly stand.
 

Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
1 logo 1
0 10-0 @ Lions
The Packers could be set up for a fall this coming week against Detroit.  I think the Lions will play them tough, but too many people are expecting the upset.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
2

logo

2
0 9-1 @ Ravens
This next game is a huge test for the Niners.  Beat Baltimore, and no one will be able to doubt them any longer.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
3

logo

5
+2 7-3 @ Eagles
The Patriots' defense has been slowly getting better week by week.  At this point, given their play and remaining schedule, there's no reason why they shouldn't take the AFC's top seed.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
4 logo 7
+3 7-3 vs. 49ers
Baltimore has served its time for losing to Seattle, and can now take their rightful place above the Steelers, who they beat twice.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
5 logo 4
-1 7-3 @ Chiefs
You could argue that the Steelers should be above the Pats, but they lost to the Ravens twice, who lost to Seattle, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.  The Patriots haven't lost a game this year when they've actually hung on to the ball.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
6 logo 6
0 7-3
vs. Giants
This game could have huge playoff implications for the Saints.  It could be the difference between heading to San Fran or Lambeau in the divisional round.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
7 logo 8 +1
6-4 vs. Bengals
Give credit to the Bengals, they hung tough with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. However, they will likely need to beat one of those teams to eventually wrap up the last AFC wild card spot.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
8 logo 11 +3 6-4 vs. Vikings
The Falcons are hanging around, staying alive, and waiting to pounce on an unsuspecting powerhouse in the playoffs.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
9 logo 10
+1 7-3 @ Raiders
The Bears would be up near the top of the board if they hadn't lost their quarterback. 
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
10 logo 9 -1 7-3 @ Jaguars
Ditto.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
11 logo 3 -8
6-4 @ Saints
@ New England, @ San Fran, @ New Orleans, vs. Green Bay.  With those surrounding games, that loss to Philly on Sunday was inexcusable for the Giants.  They absolutely needed to seize that opportunity.
Ranking Team Last Week Change Record Next Game
12 logo N/A N/A 6-4 vs. Dolphins
I truly believe the Giants are better, but if the remaining schedule is any indication, the NFC East may very well run through Dallas.  


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Opening Lines: Week 12

Written by Jason Thompson on .

The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites as they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in Week 12.

 

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, I thought it’d be an appropriate time to list all of the things I’m thankful for as a Patriots fan. I’m thankful we’re 7-3 and have a very good chance at hosting a Divisional Round playoff game. I’m thankful that the best quarterback we have to face the rest of the regular season is either Tim Tebow or Ryan Fitzpatrick. I’m thankful that the second-best team in our division is the Jets, whom we’ve already beaten twice (by at least two scores each time). I’m thankful our head coach is not a fat arrogant underperforming loudmouth with a foot fetish who can't control his mouth or focus his team of miscreants and probably smells like BO and rotting animal carcass. And I’m thankful that our defense is looking less like a gaping mortal chest wound over the past several weeks.

 

The Eagles will present a few challenges for the Pats this week as New England comes off a short week. Philly has one of the league’s best rushing attacks, and if all components of the Eagles passing attack are back at full strength, the corners and safeties will have their hands full. Holding this unit under 20 would be asking a bunch. The Eagles also do a good job of getting after the quarterback with 29 sacks on the year. And their cornerbacks need no introduction.

 

Philly will have a number of factors working in their favor, but they also have a few big matchup problems. Their safety play has been below average, and their linebackers are a miserable collection of abject failure. It probably won’t be a huge week for Welker and the receivers, but Christmas could come early for Gronkowski and Hernandez. The Eagles have also been vulnerable to the run. The Patriots excel at running out of the hurry-up, and they should be able to create plenty of room for the running backs when the Eagles put their nickel package on the field.

 

The Eagles have also been sloppy this year, ranking 28th in turnover margin and making a number of bonehead mistakes at crucial points in several contests. New England is likely to win the turnover battle and commit fewer penalties, and that could be enough to swing a close game in their favor. You could make the argument that Andy Reid has done a worse job of disciplining his team than the job he's done disciplining his kids.

 

This is a bit of a trap game for the Pats, and the Eagles could very well win outright. Even if the Eagles don’t win, their offense should give them an opportunity for a backdoor cover if they are trailing in the fourth quarter. Half of their losses have come by four or fewer points, and all but one game has been within a score. I’m picking the Eagles to cover.

 

Other Lines I Like This Week

Jets (-8) vs. Bills

The Bills are hurting in a bad way. They’ve lost arguably their three best defenders for the season, they lost their starting center on Sunday, and every member of their WR corps is dinged up as well. Fitzpatrick has struggled mightily with his accuracy. After being outscored by a combined 79-15 the past two weeks, there’s no circling these wagons. All the wheels have already fallen off.

 

Broncos (+6.5) @ Chargers

I’m sticking with my theory about Denver’s offense – they’ll struggle mightily against teams that have a good run D, and they’ll struggle epically against teams that can get good pressure while rushing four. Otherwise, they’ll plod along and put up 20 or so points on the scoreboard while looking like a team that should be wearing leather helmets and playing on a 7-inch black-and-white TV. The Chargers have just 19 sacks on the year and give up 124 yards rushing per game and 4.4 yards per carry. The San Diego offense is also as careful with the football as Casey Anthony is with her children (was that too soon?). Score this one for the leather helmets.

 

Panthers (-4) @ Colts

Newton may be in the process of hitting a rookie wall after throwing just one TD in his past two starts, and I still believe that defensive coordinators are starting to catch up with this offense quickly. I fully expect to fade the Panthers a lot in the second half of the season. With that said, the Colts defense is so bad, they might not be able to shut down a Big Ten offense. The Indy D has the worst TD:INT ratio in the league, and their pass rush has been anemic. The Colts also have the league’s second-lowest scoring offense. Suck for Luck has already been decided. The real race now is Lose for Landry (doesn’t have quite the same ring to it, but I think it could still catch on … you heard it here first).

 

Redskins (+4) @ Seahawks

I like the Redskins a whole lot more with Grossman under center (you can place that last sentence in the file marked “Things you can only say when John Beck is the other quarterback”). Washington has averaged nearly 20 points per game when Rex starts and finishes under center, compared to just 11 points per game under Beck. The Seahawks don’t generate a great pass rush, and when Rex has time, he can do a pretty decent impression of an NFL quarterback. The Redskins do an adequate job of shutting down the run, and that is the key to Seattle's offense. I think the Redskins can keep this game close and possibly win outright.

 

2011 Record ATS 28-27-3
2010 Record ATS 25-17-1