Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Daniel Eliesen from Phins Phocus.  Here's what Daniel had to say about the Phins and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

The Patriots opened as 10-point favorites as they host the Miami Dolphins in Week 16.

You’ll have to excuse me today. I’m a bit hung over after celebrating the Pats win and AFC East title, the Ravens loss and the Pittsburgh loss that gave the Pats the inside track toward the top seed in the AFC and homefield advantage. I’m going to be a bit more brief than usual because the loud clacking of these keys is giving me a massive headache.

When these two teams met in Week 1, the Patriots won by two scores. The Dolphins took a dive after that game, losing the next six in a row and putting their head coach in hot water (see what I did there? dolphins? dive? hot water? whatever, maybe I’m still drunk). However, since that tailspin, they’ve recovered to win five of their past seven, with one loss coming by a single point to the Cowboys. Miami has quietly put together a solid second half behind efficient QB play from backup Matt Moore. On a related note, who would have guessed that Miami would be better off without Chad Henne? I mean, besides anyone with eyes.

New England’s struggles on the defensive side of the ball are well documented. Seriously, how many offensive players have been taking snaps on defense this year? Three? Four? Seven? The Dolphins are far from an offensive juggernaut, but it’s safe to assume they will be able to put up a reasonable number of points against the Pats on Saturday.

Ten points is a lot to give up to a team that isn’t completely inept, and Miami barely clears that low hurdle. I’m picking the Dolphins to cover.

Other Lines I Like

Panthers (-7.5) vs. Bucs

The Newtons have won three of four, and the Bucs look like a team that has completely given up on the season. Tampa has not been good on either side of the ball this year, and they’ve lost eight in a row and weren’t competitive in most of those contests. I can’t see them pulling it together on the road this week.

Chargers (+2.5) @ Lions

The Chargers only play well when they are on the cusp of elimination. The Lions only play well when they’re down by two touchdowns in the third quarter. It’s very possible that both of these scenarios play out this week, but I like San Diego’s running attack enough to think they keep Stafford and Megatron on the sidelines for big chunks of clock.

Vikings (+6.5) @ Redskins

I don’t think this Vikings team has quit yet. The 42-20 beating last week was ugly, but Drew Brees has a tendency to make any team look silly on any given Sunday. Three of Minnesota’s last five games have been decided by a score or less. And I still can’t bring myself to jump on the Grossman train (I imagine such a train would have around three or four heavily vandalized cars and a caboose with no wheels).

Saints (-7) vs. Falcons

The Saints are extremely tough at home, and Atlanta hasn’t been terribly impressive all year. Drew Brees is dialed in right now. “Don’t bet against Drew Brees at home when he’s hot” is very close to joining “Never bet on the Chargers in the first seven games of the season” and “Always take the over when the Patriots are playing” as immutable gambling laws.

2011 Record ATS 37-37-4
2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

Tebow Time took a time warp yesterday.

The first quarter looked more like the late-game version of Tim the Savior, with the Broncos destroying the Patriots makeshift defense.

The rest of the game? Bubble burst.

Thanks to some solid schematic adjustments and some costly Broncos bumbles, the Patriots scored 27 unanswered points, shut down the Broncos offense and steamrolled their way to a 41-23 victory.

Despite clinching their ninth AFC East division title in 11 years, the Patriots suffered a huge loss on the field as defensive end Andre Carter suffered a season-ending quad injury, according to various reports.

As much as he is lauded for his 10 sacks, Carter has been equally dominant in the run game. The steady veteran will be sorely missed on a defense that’s been stretched dangerously thin.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1.       Aaron Hernandez: During my freshman year at the University of Florida, I had the privilege of watching Hernandez in person. When he fell to the fourth round in the 2010 draft, I couldn’t believe a talent like him was still available on the final day. Apparently neither did the Pats. After a solid, but inconsistent rookie year, the other half of the league’s top tight end duo has officially played his way into Pro Bowl consideration. With the Broncos focused on taking away Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker, Hernandez torched the Broncos linebackers for a career-high nine catches for 129 yards a touchdown. The Connecticut-native has an incredible combination of speed and agility and is one of the best in the league at generating yards after the catch.

2.       Mark Anderson: With Carter going down at the end of the first quarter, the team’s second-leading sack artist did what he does best: get after the quarterback. Playing both defensive end and outside linebacker, Anderson racked up two sacks and a crucial forced fumble. While his size limits his effectiveness as a run defender, he makes use of his great athleticism to put pressure on the passer. If the Pats have any shot at a deep playoff run, Anderson will have to prove he can shoulder the load.

3.       Pass protection: The Dumervil/Miller train appeared off its tracks on Sunday. While no one (especially Tom Brady) will forget Dumervil’s bone-crushing sack, the Broncos fearsome pass rush recorded only one other sack and a total of three quarterback hits on 34 passing attempts. Matt Light has stepped up his game over the second half of the season, shutting down the likes of Dwight Freeney, Trent Cole, Jason Babin and Brian Orakpo. Nate Solder/Marcus Cannon didn’t embarrass themselves at right tackle either.

4.       Kicking game: Stephen Gostowski has rebounded with two flawless performances, making both field goal attempts and all five extra-point attempts. Julian Edelman averaged 7.7 yards per punt return and made a great diving tackle on kickoff coverage. Overall, the improvement of the coverage units has been encouraging as it’s given the defense better field position. Zoltan Mesko averaged 40.5 yards per punt, with three of his four kicks downed inside the 20.

Fallers

1.       Run defense: In an alarming trend, the Patriots run defense was gashed early and often. The Broncos came out firing and trampled their way to two rushing touchdowns in the first quarter. Linebacker Dane Fletcher struggled to shed blocks and the safeties exhibited some poor tackling technique. Denver averaged an astounding 8.1 yards per carry on 31 totes and totaled three TDs. Hopefully the return of Brandon Spikes and Pat Chung will cure this issue.

In the final road test for the New England Patriots, they go west to the Mile High City to take on the 8-5 Denver Broncos. New England comes in at 10-3 and a win away from clinching the AFC East. However, it did not come easy last week as the Patriots had to survive a tough test in Washington thanks in part to a late Rex Grossman interception. Nevertheless, a win is a win, and this will be a tough test for a franchise that has had its problem up in the Mile High State over the last decade.

As for this Denver Broncos’ team, they were a team that started the year 1-4 under Kyle Orton. Then, Tim Tebow took the reins and this team has clicked to six straight wins. However, it has not just been Tebow’s fourth quarter abilities. The defense has improved, let my rookie linebacker Von Miller and his double digit sacks and the ground game with Willis McGahee has been big for John Fox’s ball control offense. They went from a team looking to draft a high quarterback to a team that is thinking about the playoffs and beyond with the AFC West lead.

Here are my keys to this AFC thriller in Denver this week:

1. Who will cover Gronk?: That’s been the question that most defensive coordinators have asked all season. For the Broncos, they may have a huge dilemma in that regard. They are injured in the secondary with safety Brian Dawkins and cornerback Andre Goodwin limited in practice the last couple of days. I talked with John Bena of MileHighReport.com this week and he told me to look for linebacker Wesley Woodyard to cover the man with the most touchdowns by a tight end in a single season. Woodyard has 27 tackles in his last five games. He can also force turnovers since he has three forced fumbles in those five games. He is unknown, but its those unknown guys that can make a difference.

2. Step Away from the Von: The most impactful player on the Denver defense is Von Miller. Miller was taken with the 2^nd pick in this year’s draft and has not disappointed all season. He has 11.5 sacks this year, which leads the team. The Patriots need to make sure Matt Light has an eye on him at all times. Miller and Elvis Dumervil have been one of the top 1-2 young defensive ends in the league. We all know if the Patriots’ offense is going to get off to that hot start they need to avoid Tebow’s 4^th quarter heroics, they have to start with a good rhythm.

3. Tebow’s 4^th quarter weapon: Tim Tebow is a tale of two halves as we know, but Tebow needs someone to throw the ball too to have his 4^th quarters be a success. The receiver I am watching out on is Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has 18 catches this year, but 11 of them have come in the 4^th quarter. He made some big catches in their win over the Bears in overtime on Sunday. With New England’s secondary probably without Patrick Chung again, I look for Denver to spread it out and complete passes like Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman did.

PREDICTION: I will start my prediction by saying that I am a Tim Tebow supporter and think he can be a successful NFL quarterback. The dude just has a will to win and it is tough to deny that. As far as Sunday goes, the Patriots need to get off to a hot start to win this game. However, New England has not had great 1^st quarters in the last few games. This game will be close and I think will come down to who has the ball last. People say Tebow can’t spread the ball out against this defense. Take a look at a game I found from last year that shows why I think Tebow can have 250+ passing yards Sunday.

Last year, Tim Tebow played the league’s worst pass defense as well (Houston Texans). Here is his line from that game:

16/29 – 308 yards – 1 touchdown, 1 interception

I see the Broncos fighting back in the 4^th quarter, but Brady has the ball last and drives New England in position for a game winning Stephen Gostkowski field goal

PATRIOTS 27 BRONCOS 24

Tom Brady

The Broncos are firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense. They’ve given up 20 TDs through the air this season, and I think it’s safe to assume they’ll give up around 3 more this week to go along with 300+ yards. If the Broncos keep the game close, Brady might flirt with 400 and 4. Start him with even more confidence than usual.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

Welker is an every-week starter, and I would anticipate a lot of quick throws to neutralize the Denver pass rush. He’ll likely draw coverage from Champ Bailey when he lines up outside, but the Pats should move him around enough to keep him in the 7 catch, 100 yard range. I wouldn’t be afraid to use Branch as a flex play this week, as I think he has a decent shot at finding paydirt since teams will be focusing on containing Gronkowski in the red zone. He will probably be around 4 catches and 55 yards.

New England’s Muddled Mess of a Backfield

I give up. Seriously. If you start any of the BJGE/Woodhead/Faulk/Ridley/Vereen logjam during a playoff week in anything but the deepest of leagues, you are playing with fire.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

Denver has fast, athletic linebackers that could limit Gronk’s volume, but he is still a good bet for at least 5 catches, 80 yards and a score. I like Hernandez this week as defenses try to figure out how to take away Gronkowski. Brady won’t hold the ball long, so Hernandez should see a minimum of a half-dozen targets. He’s a good candidate to find the end zone.

Stephen Gostkowski

Another typical 4-5 XPs, 2 FGs. Ho hum.

New England Defense/Special Teams

Denver does not turn the ball over often, and they do a decent job of limiting game-killing mistakes. If the Patriots don’t jump out to a big early lead, I’d expect the Broncos to put up around 20-24 points and allow 2 or fewer sacks and no more than one turnover. If the Patriots jump all over Denver early, you could probably revise those sack/turnover numbers up a notch or two.

That's two weeks in a row that I've finished in first place.  You see, I'm not such a horrible picker.  There have been many weeks where I've picked incredibly well.  There just happens to be some weeks where I completely fell apart (cough, cough 0-7).

But enough about me and my last place struggles.  This week is about Stephen, who extended his lead with a clutch pick of the Texans over the Bengals.  The man went out on a limb, one against four, and came out on top.  Now he's got a four game lead in the standings to show for it.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
PIT @ SF
CAR @ HOU
WAS @ NYG
DET @ OAK
NYJ @ PHI
BAL @ SD
MIA @ BUF
Last Week	6-1	4-3	5-2	6-1	5-2
Record	44-42	54-32	56-30	60-26	56-30

Ian Henson has been writing for or against the Denver Broncos since 1998, his reverse course started in television and ended up in blogging. For the conscious part of 28 years he has been a fan. Finally arriving this month in Denver via New York City, the reaction has been similar to Napolean crossing the Alps or Washington crossing the Delaware. The Broncos have been undefeated and remain unbeaten with Ian in attendance at Mile High. Ian is currently creating an internet based television network and runs a marketing & social media company out of Denver. he lives in Cherry Hills with his wife Gabriela and dog Bailey. You can catch him on game day in his Pat Bowlen uniform. Henson was featured this past Sunday as a cover story in The Denver Post (http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_19520701).

1. We know the hot topic in the NFL is Tim Tebow. So, let's get your original take on Tebow. Did you think before this year that he could be a successful quarterback in the NFL?

A lot of people tend to forget that Kyle Orton was demoted last season and Tim Tebow was the starter for the final three games. It really did not become apparent that Orton would be the starter until very close to the start of the season. At that point even players like Brandon Lloyd had stated that they had practiced all off-season planning on Tebow being the starter. This may explain Tebow's early over throwing tendency, as Lloyd can catch nearly anything.

As far as Tebow being a successful quarterback in the NFL, the 2010 game against the Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders kind of stood out as major indicators that he would be at the very worst an above average quarterback in the NFL. That being said, even with the current win streak one season is not a clear litmus test on a quarterback. At this point though the sky does seem to be the limit.

2. Which player on the Broncos' offense will have to have the better game for Denver to win on Sunday: Willis McGahee or Eric Decker?

Eric Decker has been a dead factor over the last few weeks; Willis McGahee having a good game would mean that the Broncos are winning time of possession and likely scoring more points. I think Demaryius Thomas will be someone that the Patriots defense will want to key on more so than Decker, but McGahee and Lance Ball can both pop a twenty yarder seemingly at will during some points of the game.

The Patriots are six-point favorites in Week 15 as they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos.

For once, the pre-game show won’t be focused entirely on Tom Brady as Tebowmania is set to descend on Patriot Nation this week. Don’t be surprised if the media completely forgets that there are 15 other games to be played. The Broncos have won seven of eight and have escaped from some of the most difficult circumstances imaginable behind a quarterback who almost didn’t beat out Brady Quinn for the job of holding Kyle Orton’s jock in camp this year. While I’m among the folks who just smile and shake their head every time the Broncos pull out another Houdini act, I’m not buying the idea that this team is ready for prime time. Denver has feasted mainly on some of the league’s true bottom-feeders (Miami, KC, Minnesota, Oakland and a Bears team missing its starting QB and RB). Tebow may have a 7-1 record as a starter, but he also has a +2 point differential while playing against competition that might as well be plucked from Penn State’s early-season schedule. Tim Tebow is going to mature as a passer, he’s going to continue to improve, and he’s going to win more than his fair share of games for the Broncos. Hell, they may even win a playoff game this year (an act that could possibly cause a global Twitterpocalypse). But it’s foolhardy to suggest that he can hang with an elite team like the Patriots at this stage of his career. He has a high ceiling as an offensive weapon, but he hasn’t reached that ceiling yet. Not even close.

For all of Tebow’s strengths as a tough runner and a good decision-maker, his flaws as a passer (slow release, inaccuracy) play into the strengths of New England’s defense. New England’s defensive philosophy this year has been to keep everything in front of them and attack the football, and that extra split second on Tebow’s release can be the difference between a receiver hauling in an errant pass or the defender breaking it up. The Pats have done a decent job of stopping the run this year, and I’d expect New England to move a safety into the box on early downs to dare Denver to beat them down the field. Denver’s pair of big, physical receivers are not polished route-runners, so it’s easy to envision Tebow struggling to find running lanes while having to fit the ball into a lot of tight spaces. That is not Denver’s recipe for success.

It’s no secret that the Patriots have struggled against teams that feature a strong pass rush. The Broncos have recorded the fourth-most sacks in the league with 37 on the year, and they could create more than a few problems for the Patriots offensive line. However, it’s also important to note that the Broncos biggest pressure comes off the edge with DE Elvis Dumervil and OLB Von Miller. The Pats have struggled most against defenses that can generate a big push up the middle, and that has not been an area of strength for Denver. The Pats typically use their backs and tight ends to chip edge rushers, and Brady’s uncanny pocket presence allows him to help out his blockers by stepping up in the pocket to buy additional time. Denver has allowed 22 passing TDs with just 9 INTs this year, and it’s likely that Brady will have another efficient afternoon to put pressure on Denver’s offense.

I’m going to take a knee, bow my head to reflect on my record of correctly predicting the outcome of Broncos and Pats games this year, and then pick the Patriots to cover this spread with relative ease.

Other Lines I Like

Packers (-13.5) @ Chiefs

This should have been the second spread of the year to go above the 20-point barrier. Green Bay’s offense is breaking records; the Chiefs are having trouble finding the end zone at all. KC’s point output for the past six games: 3, 10, 3, 9, 10, 10. To put that in perspective, the Packers scored more points in 60 minutes of football last week than the Chiefs have scored since Halloween. The bookmakers dropped the ball on this one, and the public is going to make them pay. If you’re going to bet this one, do it early. Don’t walk to your neighborhood gaming establishment. The line might be -17 when you get there.

Lions (-1) @ Raiders

I shudder to think about the number of penalties that will be committed in this game. If these two teams go into overtime, the postgame show can double as the halftime show for the Sunday night game. This may look more like a fight in the prison yard than a football game. The Lions have underperformed in recent weeks due to dumb penalties and inexcusable mental lapses. They’re now playing the team that invented dumb penalties and inexcusable mental lapses.

Jets (+3) @ Eagles

This game is destined to be a fluky Jets win. On talent alone, this line is spot-on. But after watching Philly find new and creative ways to lose winnable games all season, it’s hard to get too excited about betting on them, particularly when they play a team that is well-versed in notching undeserved victories over the past 2-3 years. Philly has struggled against the run, and their speedy WRs don’t create as much of a mismatch for New York’s CBs.

Falcons (-11) @ Jaguars

I wouldn’t put too much stock in last week’s offensive explosion from the Jags. It was the first time they’ve scored more than 20 this season, and they were aided by seven Tampa turnovers and a compliant Bucs defense. The Jaguars have not travelled well this season (just 1-5 on the road), and the Falcons have played well at home. Jacksonville’s secondary has been a worse train wreck than a Kardashian marriage. Look for Atlanta to score early and often.

2011 Record ATS 35-35-3
2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

Perhaps nothing exemplifies the Patriots defense more than the four-lettered words dropped by Tom Brady during his sideline scuffle with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.

*&#* Frustration  *#*##

Outside of Brady’s careless endzone interception, the offense continued on its torrid scoring pace – dropping 34 points on a solid Redskins defense.

The problem however was the Redskins scored 27 themselves, including an embarrassing trick play where receiver Brandon Banks threw a TD to receiver Santana Moss with receiver-turned-safety Matt Slater trailing in coverage.

Without Pat Chung, the secondary has been stretched dangerously thin, and even an average quarterback like Rex Grossman moved the ball with ease.

While I’m not dismissing the fact the Patriots picked up their 10^th win, this victory gave little to cheer about.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Rob Gronkowski: No explanation necessary.

2. Jerod Mayo: On a defense full of question marks, Mayo is the one constant. While he isn’t in the class of Patrick Willis as an all-around playmaker or intimidator, Mayo is still one of the better linebackers in the league. The 2010 All-Pro led the team with nine tackles and chipped in with a quarterback hit and pass defended. However, it was his game-sealing interception that earned him a spot on the list.

Fallers

1. Entire defense: Giving up 293 passing yards is a given every week. But surrendering 170 yards on the ground is unacceptable. Redskins rookie Roy Helu looked like a young LaDanian Tomlinson on Sunday, making some impressive jump cuts and flashing excellent speed and quickness. With starting left tackle Trent Williams and tight end Fred Davis out of the lineup, the Redskins were short on playmakers…at least on paper. Instead, Grossman and the Skins exploited the soft zone defense between the linebackers and safeties. Not a good day to be a Patriot defender.

2. Devin McCourty: Boy has he fallen off a cliff. A year after being named a Pro Bowler as a rookie, McCourty can’t cover anyone. Donte Stallworth, who entered the game with a 10/111/1 stat line, burned McCourty for four catches, 96 yards and a score. DMC looks a step slower this year and hasn’t been a consistent tackler either. If he’s not on his game, this team has no shot when it comes playoff time.

3. Running game: Despite drafting two backs in the early rounds, the Patriots haven’t made much of an effort to get them on the field. And it’s not because BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Danny Woodhead are tearing it up either. While Washington ran the ball 34 times for 170 yards, New England managed just 79 yards on 20 carries including four scrambles by Brady. The adage about defense and a running game winning championships definitely doesn’t look realistic when it comes to the Patriots. Can they beat the odds?