With a quarter of the season now complete, what area of the Patriots' performance has you the most optimistic and which has you the most concerned?

Jason: I'm happier than Christopher Columbus with speedboats regarding the play of the linebackers. That was an area of weakness last year, but the growth of Spikes and the addition of Hightower has turned that into an area of strength. It's not unreasonable to think they could be the best unit on the team next year (and that's saying something when you're talking about a team with Tom Brady under center). The biggest concern for me is the offensive line. A solid case could be made for the secondary being the weakest unit, but if the big guys up front get Brady killed, the season is effectively over. If they play as well as they played last week, the Pats will be playing in February. If they play like the previous week, the Patriots will be looking at an early playoff exit.

Raj: I like that the Patriots offense has finally found it's chemistry. We saw it against Buffalo and I believe that it will continue. This offense should intimidate any defensive coordinator of the teams that the Patriots play this season. If not, I call that overconfidence. What really has me concerned still is the secondary. They allow way too many yards early in the game, do fine in the middle, but then choke at the end. Simply put, that CANNOT happen! Offensive coordinators of the teams the Patriots play this season will take advantage of that and I don't want that to happen so they gotta fix up that secondary real fast. After all, our offense can only so much.

QB Tom Brady

Denver does a decent job of getting after the quarterback, but the back end of their defense isn’t elite. The Broncos have played against two top-shelf quarterbacks so far this year. Matt Ryan threw for 220 and 2, and Roethlisberger put up 245 and 2. I think Brady will end up slightly higher than those two, but not much. I’d bank on 290 and two scores.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch

Opposing receivers have fared pretty well against Denver so far this week, and it appears Welker is rounding back into form. He’s a safe bet for 6-7 catches and 90 yards. Lloyd was quiet last week before busting off a long score, but I think he’ll be more heavily involved against his old teammates. Look for him to get loose for one long score to go with 5 catches and 80 yards. And if you’re truly desperate, #3 WRs have averaged close to 40 yards per game against Denver this year. I think Branch could be close to that mark as well.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden

The Broncos have been fairly stout against the run (3.4 ypc, 1 rushing TD allowed), but the one time they faced a great running team in Houston, they were gashed for 152 yards. I think Ridley is a good bet to top 100 yards and get the ball over the stripe once. Bolden is a bit trickier this week. While the Pats will rely on the run to shorten the game, I don’t think Bolden is a lock for double-digit carries again. Given the situation, I would sit him this week.

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Gronk is a bit banged up right now, but this matchup is still spectacular. The Broncos have allowed three TEs to score in the first four weeks, and two have topped 50 yards. You can pencil him in for 80 and a spike, with a strong possibility for more. Hernandez is not expected to play this week, but it is worth noting that he was back at practice. That is a positive sign.

New England Defense/Special Teams

The Pats D will have more than their fair share of stellar weeks, but I don’t think this matchup bodes well for them. The Broncos should try to exploit the secondary, and I think Denver WRs should be able to find room to maneuver. The Broncos have allowed an average of 2 sacks per game and haven’t scored fewer than 21. Unless a certain hooded mastermind has identified some serious flaw in Manning’s game that the rest of the league hasn’t nailed down yet, I think that streak will continue. There are better options on the waiver wire than the likely 24 points, 2 sacks and 1 turnover you’ll get this week.

A quarter of the way through the season, the Pick 'Em game continues to be a competitive affair.  Only three games separate the top four players.   Stephen, on the other hand, has managed to catch my stink from last season and is trailing the pack.  Still there's plenty of time for a glorious comeback.  If the Eagles and Saints pull it out for him this week, he'll be that much closer to regaining momentum as he defends last year's title.

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
PHI @ PIT
MIA @ CIN
SD @ NO
SEA @ CAR
TEN @ MIN
CHI @ JAX
ATL @ WAS
Last Week	6-1	5-2	6-1	4-3	3-4
Record	17-11	18-10	20-8	17-11	10-18

It's a quiet week for the Top 12, as eight of the top nine teams all walked away with wins.  That's not to say that there wasn't some mild shifting going on, but nothing overly stunning.   With a lot of the big dogs playing sub-par teams, there is room for some excitement next week if our Top 12 underpeform.

#1 - Houston Texans

I have yet to fully buy into the Texans hype given the relative cream-puff slate of teams they've played so far.  Still, they can only play the teams they are scheduled to play, and thus far, they've done exactly what you'd expect them to do.  They've won handily with relatively few miscues or close calls.  Nobody else on this list can say that, which is why I'm putting Houston in the top spot.

Last Week: 2      Change: +1      Record: 4-0       Next Game: vs. Panthers

#2 - San Francisco 49ers

The Niners rise this week has little to do with their drubbing of the reeling New York Jets.  That's what they were supposed to do.  However, in retrospect, it turns out that their slip-up to the "lowly" Vikings wasn't to such a lowly team after all, and I've taken that into account.  They lost to a quality opponent on the road that they were likely underestimating.  It happens.

Last Week: 4      Change: +2       Record: 3-1       Next Game: vs. Bills

#3 - Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta remains perfect, but not without some razor-thin close calls.  A win is a win, but they haven't been quite as dominant as their record would suggest.

Last Week: 1      Change: -2       Record: 4-0       Next Game: @ Redskins

#4 - New England Patriots

The Patriots drop 52 points on the road and fall a spot?   Well, first remember that the margins here at the top of the board are razor thin.  And then also keep in mind how we all felt five minutes into the third quarter when the season seemed to be unraveling out of control.  That Buffalo win was both inspiring, as well as a strong reminder that this team still has some work to do.

Last Week: 3      Change: -1       Record: 2-2       Next Game: vs. Broncos

There are certain pairs of players that are inexorably linked in league history because of their epic duels for pigskin supremacy. One such rivalry will be rekindled this week in New England as two of the league’s biggest names prepare to do battle, as they have countless other times over more than a decade. That’s right folks, strap in for the showdown – Gronkowski vs. Gronkowski, with the winner getting family bragging rights and the larger turkey leg at Thanksgiving dinner.

Oh, and I think the quarterbacks in this game are both supposed to be kinda good too?

The Broncos have played better than their 2-2 record suggests. They must have pummeled a Goddell family member the week before the schedule was released, because they will have faced four playoff teams in the first five weeks of the season after this game. They lost by a TD or less in games against the Texans and Falcons, so had they been playing mortal teams during this span, they could easily be 3-1 or 4-0. The Tebow Broncos, these guys are not.

The Pats have had trouble over the past two seasons when they face teams that feature several viable threats in the passing game, and they’ve also had a hard time when facing above-average or elite quarterbacks. I’m not sure which of those two categories Peyton falls into at this stage in his career and his recovery, but he looked pretty limber in those Direct TV commercials in the fairy outfit. So I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

And one more wrinkle that may or may not matter – the Broncos signed ex-Patriot center Dan Koppen in the offseason. After spending so much time in New England, he may be able to offer some insight on the New England offensive line that could help the Denver pass rush exploit any weaknesses that may exist. The Patriots offense struggles when opposing teams can generate pressure on Brady without blitzing their asses off, so any tiny edge for the pass rush could make an impact. Or maybe I’m just full of shit. Who knows?

I’m taking the Broncos to cover the spread, and they aren’t a bad moneyline bet either.

Other Lines I Like

As we noted in the first installment of this column last weekend, there are a lot of things that keep me awake at night, when it comes to analyzing the New England Patriots, the NFL and the 2012 season.

Here are just a few for this week, coming on the heels of the Patriots 52-28 win over the New York Jets on Sunday:

THE BALTIMORE RAVENS: The 2011 AFC title game saw New England eek-out a 23-20 victory after Ravens PK Billy Cundiff missed a FG that could’ve tied the game, you surely remember. That might sound familiar to Patriots fans who watched Steven Gostkowski miss a routine 42-yard FG which put the Patriots on the short end of a 20-18 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in week two of the NFL season.

After the NFL Network game of the week required a short turn-around for the Ravens to host the Thursday night game against the Cleveland Browns, the Ravens played “just good enough” to record a 23-16 victory. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw 28-for-46 and 356 yards while throwing for a TD and running for another, cementing his place among the upper echelon of current NFL quarterbacks just as running back Ray Rice stakes his claim as the single best back in the league. The Ravens’ receiving corps is now led by WR Anquan Bolden and a star-in-the-making in WR Torrey Smith – who had his breakout game of the season the same night his younger brother was killed in a motorcycle accident.

The Baltimore defense ranks 10th in the league in points allowed but is first in interception returns for TDs. The Ravens and Houston Texans have emerged as the class of the American Football Conference and both teams are improving each week.

Yesterday’s AFC East showdown between the Patriots and Bills read much like a Mark Twain novel.

In the first half, the Patriots looked sloppy, unorganized and downright awful.

Safeties Pat Chung and Steve Gregory made Scott Chandler look like Gronk 2.0 and the offense couldn’t capitalize on two Buffalo turnovers.

Seeing Ryan Fitpatrick sling the ball around like it was 7-on-7 conjured up bad memories of the Patriots’ second-half meltdown last season.

And then the second half came.

Something or someone managed to light a serious fire under this team’s ass and the Patriots thoroughly exterminated the Bills in the game’s final 30 minutes.

Thanks to the rough-running tandem of Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden and an opportunistic defense, the Patriots dropped 45 points on the Bills in a span of 22 minutes.

While the pass defense certainly had its typical ups and downs, the Pats showed tremendous resiliency in battling back on the road after being down 21-7 at one point.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers...

1. Stevan Ridley/Brandon Bolden: With Shane Vereen active for the first time all season, many experts expected the former second-round pick to get some serious action. Boy were they wrong. Vereen earned just eight snaps, as Bolden, an undrafted free agent, carried the ball 16 times for 137 yards and a back-breaking touchdown. The former Ole Miss Rebel displayed excellent power, a solid burst and patience in his breakout performance. Meanwhile, Ridley continued to show why he will be a future Pro Bowler with his slashing style of play. Last year’s third-round pick carried the rock 22 times for 108 yards and two scores, as the Pats racked up 247 yards and four rushing touchdowns in the blowout.

2. 2010 Draft Class: Bill Belichick’s draft record definitely took a hit between 2006-2009, but the fruits of his labor in 2010 were on full display in the 52-28 victory. Devin McCourty rebounded from an inconsistent Week 3 performance to pick off two passes and provide great run defense from his corner spot. Rob Gronkowski shook off some early cobwebs to finish with 104 receiving yards and a touchdown. The team’s other two second-round picks, former Florida Gators Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham made impact on plays on defense. Spikes forced two bone-jarring fumbles while Cunningham provided a solid interior rush in sub-packages. To top it off, Zoltan Mesko nailed all three of his punts inside the 20-yard line.

3. 2012 Draft Class: Once again, the Patriots’ most recent draft picks came up with game-changing plays. Chandler Jones finished with five tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits. He looks like the real deal already. Dont’a Hightower wasn’t able to finish the game after suffering a hamstring injury, but the former Alabama star recorded his first career sack. Tavon Wilson, who was deemed a reach by draft experts, recorded his second interception of his young career. These are the kind of results that give me optimism that this defense can be elite.

4. Offensive Line: This list usually only goes three-deep, but I have to give some love to the Big Uglies. Facing what is supposed to be the league’s best defensive line, New England’s front five allowed one measly sack and three quarterback hits. Sebastian Vollmer made Mario Williams and his $100 million contract look like a bad investment, and Donald Thomas filled in admirably for Logan Mankins at left guard. After drawing heavy criticism through three games, this unit stepped up against a tough test and earned flying colors.

Fallers...

There were time yesterday, where I felt like I had stumbled into some alternate universe.  The Patriots were trailing 21-7 in the second half to the Bills and inching dangerously close to a 1-3 record, which would have essentially put them three games behind the Bills with tie-breakers in the race for the AFC crown.  At that point, we had already witnessed a fumble by Gronkowski, a fumble by Welker, two dropped touchdowns by Gronkowski, two missed field goals by Gostkowski, and some horrible tackling that allowed a 68-yard touchdown reception.  This Patriots team, which had all the potential in the world on opening day, was unraveling before our very eyes.  You could chalk up the Arizona loss to the unexpected Hernandez injury and some bad luck.  You could chalk up the Baltimore loss to incompetent officials.  But what we saw in the first 35 minutes of yesterday's game defied excuses.  It was an inexplicable barrage of failed execution.  As I sat there pondering whether the curse of the Super Bowl loser existed, and if the Patriots were about to experience a Red Sox-esque collapse from within, Tom Brady juked a defender and found a streaking Danny Woodhead to put the Patriots back within seven.  

Is Sunday's game in Buffalo a "must win" game for New England?

Jason: Even though the Pats are coming off two straight losses, Buffalo still needs this win way more than New England. The Pats are a game behind the division leaders. It's way too early to call any game a must-win for a team that hasn't missed the playoffs with Brady under center in a decade. I'm not sure whether the Bills are the next best team in the division, so it's hard the fathom this one being a make-or-break game for the Pats. Even if they lose this one, would you bet against them making the playoffs?.

Stephen: Because the Patriots play in a rather weak division, I don't see Sunday as a must-win. The Jets will falter without Revis and the Dolphins don't pose much of a threat with their underwhelming offense. The Bills are a solid team, but I don't see them truly posing a threat to the Patriots winning the division. New England could, and maybe should, be 3-0 at this point, if not for a few plays going the other way. As long as they continue to get the offense rolling and put some more heat on the quarterback, they should be okay on Sunday. 

Derek: In terms of making the playoffs, this match against the Bills is not a must-win scenario. The AFC East is very weak this season and a 9-7 record may be all that's needed to take home the title and secure a post-season appearance. However, from the perspective of capturing a first-round bye-week, it is critical that the Patriots defeat the Bills. A 1-3 start would put the Pats in a nearly insurmountable hole. Baltimore and Houston are simply too good, and a loss here would put New England in a position where they would likely need to run the table the next twelve weeks to earn one of the two coveted spots. 

Do you think that Josh McDaniels is forcing the issue with the "balanced" offensive attack?  Should the Pats go back to airing it out like they have the past few seasons?

Stephen: Because the Patriots play in a rather weak division, I don't see Sunday as a must-win. The Jets will falter without Revis and the Dolphins don't pose much of a threat with their underwhelming offense. The Bills are a solid team, but I don't see them truly posing a threat to the Patriots winning the division. New England could, and maybe should, be 3-0 at this point, if not for a few plays going the other way. As long as they continue to get the offense rolling and put some more heat on the quarterback, they should be okay on Sunday.

Jason: If anything, I'd like to see the Pats run more, not less. Brady kills teams on playaction, and running the ball more often will make those playaction passes even more deadly. I really think the Pats have found something in Ridley. Going to all-out through the air puts the best back we've had since Correy Dillon firmly on the bench. And while the defense has grown by leaps and bounds, they still need help from the offense. A good running game shortens the game and limits their exposure.

Derek: I wholeheartedly agree that the Patriots would benefit from a more balanced approach than they demonstrated the past few seasons. Some of their losses, especially in the Super Bowl may. Have been preventable if they had a running threat like Ridley. That being said, I think that McDaniels is running the ball a bit too much. Every hand-off that Ridley or Woodhead gets is one less throw for Tom Brady. While being balanced has its benefits, ultimately you want to put the ball in the hands of your best player as much as possible. I think that against Baltimore and Arizona, the Pats would have benefited from a few more lobs from Brady instead of 1-yard runs from Woodhead.  Instead of two runs and one throw per three downs the Patriots should more often being matching two throws with one run. If you give Brady two tosses, he will get the first down more often than not.