Round Table: 2nd Half Predictions

Written by Derek Hanson on .

Stephen: Based on their remaining opponents, the Patriots should go 6-2 over the second half of the season. The two foreseeable losses should come against Houston and San Francisco, although it's tough to count out our pesky division foes. The Dolphins could definitely present two tough games for New England, but I think the Pats make it to at least 10 wins, most likely 11, and win the AFC East.

Raj: I was hoping to have a better first half since not many predicted the Patriots to be 5-3. In fact, they really should be 8-0 because they've only lost their games by 1 or 2 points. However this schedule does get slightly tougher with a couple of opponents in the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. The rest should be fairly routine in my opinion. In fact I will be going to the Thanksgiving game between the Patriots and Jets in NJ and I expect to see a solid New England win. There will be some bumps in the second half but I predict the Pats finish 7-1 in this stretch. The loss I think will come on the road in Miami (because I'm predicting that the Patriots won't even try in that one).

Jason: Since I predicted the Pats would go 12-4 at the beginning of the season, I'm contractually obligated to predict a 7-1 record in their final 8 games. The toughest remaining games on the schedule are San Francisco and Houston, and both of those games are in New England. I like their odds to at least earn a split of those games.

Derek: The Patriots have swept the AFC East all of one time in Bill Belichick's tenure.  With the team currently 2-0 in the division with four games to go, an 8-0 finish would be a pretty bold call.   Then you have to consider that the Patriots still have the Texans and Niners looming large on the schedule, making such a call even bolder.  But you know what?  I'm feeling pretty darn bold right at the moment.  The Patriots were razor close to going 8-0 during the first half of the season and Bill Belichick's teams tend to play their best football in November and December.  I'm predicting that the Pats will match last year's 13-3 record by finishing perfect down the stretch .

no comments

Game Preview: Patriots vs. Bills

Written by Ricky Keeler on .

After a well needed bye week, the New England Patriots will get back to the field this Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots had time after their trip to London to rest, relax, and get healthy. The big news New England made over the bye week was at the trade deadline when they upgraded their secondary with the acquisition of Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ cornerback Aqib Talib. Unfortunately, Talib is ineligible to play this weekend due to suspension.

As for the Bills, their struggles continue both on-the-field and in the locker room. The team is 3-5 and not living up to their preseason hype. However, the major comments came from the front office after a 21-9 loss to the Houston Texans. General Manager Buddy Nix told the media that he did not want to leave his job without acquiring a franchise quarterback. While he has a point, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has put some good numbers as Patriots’ fans know, but it’s his propensity to turn the football over via the interception that gets him in trouble late in games. Can Buffalo win their first game at Gillette Stadium in franchise history this week and change the course of their season?

Here are my keys to the matchup on Sunday:

no comments

Round Table: Aquib Talib Trade

Written by Derek Hanson on .

What are your thoughts on the Aquib Talib trade?  Will this move be enough to fix the Patriots secondary?

Jason: I met news of the Talib trade with a resounding "meh." There really isn't any fixing this secondary; it's more a matter of bailing out that sinking lifeboat with your hands and hoping it gets close enough to shore that you can swim the rest of the way to safety. Talib seems like the kind of player who has been skating on talent and reputation after his big rookie season. I'm not sure he really fits here.

Stephen: Some may look at the price (a 2013 fourth-round pick) as a high investment in a risky player, but it's a worthy risk considering the Patriots' awful secondary. Talib is a former first-rounder who's shown Pro Bowl talent during his five-year career. He's a player who can turn this defense from average to very good, provided he keeps his head on straight. I can't fault Bill Belichick for trying to address the team's biggest weakness, even if the price was high. Ultimately, I think the trade works out well for both the team and the player, but until the Patriots get better play from their safeties, the pass defense will struggle.

Raj: He just might be enough. Talib just really has to stay out of trouble. Although we've seen players with tough attitudes come to the Patriots before. Coach Belichick knows how to deal with them. He transformed Randy Moss! So I like this trade just as long as Belichick knows what he's doing. After all, In Bill We Trust!

Derek: My person take is that there's no way that Talib can make the secondary worse. When you get lit up on long plays like the Pats did against against Seattle and St. Louis, there's nowhere to go but up.  I think a fourth rounder was good value for a player of Talib's caliber.  The only way I see this move blowing up in Belichick's face is if Talib continues to be a headcase.  Hopefully a clean slate allows him to play up to his potential.  In a season where the Patriots are title contenders with one glaring weakness, I feel that this was a justifiable "win now" move that may help bring the Lombardi back to Foxboro.

no comments

Fantasy Forecast: Week 10

Written by Jason Thompson on .

 

QB Tom Brady

The last time he faced the Bills, Brady scored roughly a billion points. The last time he took the field, the offense scored on every meaningful drive. This one isn’t rocket science. He’s the top fantasy QB in the league this week, and it’s not close. Expect something approaching 300+ yards and 3+ scores as a floor, with a ceiling of … a billion?

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Welker continues to pile up catches and yards, and the week off surely helped some of his bumps, bruises, sprains and strains begin to heal. I’d say he’s a safe bet for 100 yards and a 50-50 shot at a score this week. Lloyd showed improving chemistry with Brady in London, and that should translate to appreciable numbers against a porous Bills secondary. Pencil him in for 75 and a score.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen

This is an excellent matchup for Ridley, and I think it’s safe to pencil him in for 125 and at least one score. Bolden did not practice this week and is unlikely to play, so Vereen should see at least 10 touches with Woodhead getting a half-dozen looks on passing downs. Vereen and Woodhead should combine for another 75-100 total yards and a score. You could make a good argument for flexing either player.

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Gronk has been an absolute nightmare for the Bills, scoring eight (!) TDs in just five games against Buffalo. Expect more of the same this week with another 100 or so yards and a score. I’m tempering my expectations for Hernandez just a bit since he’ll have to knock off some rust, but he should be able to get 50 yards and an even shot at a score.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This unit has shown significant improvement in terms of fantasy scoring potential, and they are a safe play against a generous Bills team. I could easily see them giving up 24 points, but they should also force several turnovers and tally a few sacks. The defense should benefit from the week off, so there is the potential for even more.

 

no comments

Gronk Talks to a Spaceman

Written by Derek Hanson on .

High unintentional comedy from the Gronkster. Two weeks ago, he was fascinated by those "nutcracker dudes." Now he gets to talk to a real live spaceman!

no comments

Week 10 NFL Pick 'Em

Written by Derek Hanson on .

After a week off, the Pick 'Em game returns.  Stephen managed to claw his way back to .500 with a 7-0 outing in Week 8.  Can he make it back all the way?  The rest of us are each separated by a single game.  Unfortunately, this week's slate of games won't have a ton of drama as there are only two games that aren't unanimous.  However, on the flip side, all it would take is a little Seattle and Houston magic to dethrone Jason from his top perch.

Game Derek Jason Raj Rick Stephen
NYJ @ SEA

TEN @ MIA

ATL @ NO

KC @ PIT

IND @ JAX

OAK @ BAL

HOU @ CHI

Last Week 5-2 5-2 5-2 6-1 7-0

Record

35-21

38-18

37-19

36-20

28-28

 

no comments

Opening Lines: Week 10

Written by Jason Thompson on .

The Patriots opened as 11-point favorites as they host the Bills in Week 10. 

And I have one of the most banging post-election hangovers in the history of booze. Translation – if you’re looking for biting wit and spot-on analysis, you’re better off waiting for Derek to post the pick ‘em tomorrow. I’m as screwed as the power grid in the Northeast today.

Ever since that little six-quarter stretch where the Bills got outscored 90-10 a few weeks back (a time known to Patriots fans as BWWAAHAHAHHHAHAAAA), they haven’t played like a raging outhouse fire. Buffalo has also done alright against bad defenses, and even after adding Talib, I still think New England’s defense fits in that category. Maybe they’ll improve by a good chunk, but I’m not holding my breath.

With that said, here’s what happened the second time New England has played Buffalo the past two seasons: 49-21, 34-3. Given the fact that the Patriots generally kill teams when they’re coming off a bye, my money is on a repeat performance. I’m taking the Patriots and laying the points.

Other Lines I Like

Eagles (+1) vs. Cowboys

Aside from getting points for a home underdog in a divisional contest, consider these two questions. 1) When was the last time the Eagles lost a game that didn’t matter to their playoff chances? 2) 

When was the last time the Cowboys won a game that mattered to their playoff chances? It’s a perfect set-up for the Cowboys to blow a winnable game and the Eagles to win a meaningless game.

Lions (-1) @ Vikings

Both of these teams appear to have turned a corner. The Lions realized that good things happen when they put the ball in Calvin Johnson’s hands. The Vikings have realized that bad things happen when they put the ball in Christian Ponder’s hands.

2012 Record ATS: 18-10

Record ATS since 2010: 89-76-4

no comments

Foxboro Blog Top 12: Week 10

Written by Derek Hanson on .

After a week in Europe and a hurricane, I'm back with this week's Top 12!


#1 - Atlanta Falcons

I toyed with dropping Atlanta after a less-than-stellar performance against Dallas, but ultimately, I have to respect the undefeated record. 

Last Week: 1      Change: 0      Record: 8-0       Next Game: vs. Saints


#2 - Chicago Bears

The Bears made a serious argument for taking the top spot in their spanking of Tennessee.  This team is on fire.

Last Week: 3    Change: +1      Record: 7-1     Next Game: vs. Texans


#3 - Houston Texans

Was I wrong for dropping the Texans a spot?  We will find out on Sunday.  Whoever is ranked higher between Houston and Chicago next week won't be due to simple opinion.

Last Week: 2      Change: -1       Record: 7-1       Next Game: @ Bears


#4 - San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco comes off the bye looking to cement their dominance of the NFC West by defeating the Rams. 

Last Week: 5      Change: +1       Record: 6-2       Next Game: vs. Rams


no comments

FOOTBALL’S GREATEST ALL in ONE PLACE

Written by Terry Lyons on .

How great is a book that lists Tom Brady ahead of Peyton Manning, John Elway and Dan Marino? How great is an all-time keeper of a publication that ranks Bill Belichick among the top 15 head coaches in NFL history, the only active coach to be so honored? But, then again, the same publication ranks the 2007 Patriots as only the seventh best single-season team in NFL history, much to the credit of one – David Tyree who is actually on the cover of “FOOTBALL’S GREATEST.”

Not long ago, Sports Illustrated editor Bill Syken sat down at his desk with the journalistic assignment of a lifetime. He was asked to create "Sports Illustrated's Football's Greatest," a coffee table sized book that is now on sale. It just might be the best thing that's happened to the NFL since the birth of NFL Films.

Syken had a daunting task. He was asked to "quarterback" an effort to poll Sports Illustrated's highly qualified team of experts to create one voice, the ultimate NFL book to chronicle the "Top 10" in more than 20 categories of NFL history.  Syken has a team that includes NFL beat writer Peter King, the Monday morning QB himself, along with Tim Layden, Don Banks, Steve Rushin, Jim Trotter, Michael Silver, Damon Hack, Roy Blount Jr. and the entire army of SI photographers, historians, editors, writers and researchers. Not only did they highlight the top players by position, they also tackled the more obscure questions and "bar room" debates, such as "Best Stadium, Rivalry, Coaches, Games, Plays, Franchises, Uniforms.  You get the drift?

Well, Mr. Syken, congratulations on a job well done and, please, take the rest of the week off!

There are three things to keep in mind when (not if) you decide to buy this book and that is the fact the book has three lives.

It has a life for the curious.

For most, the very first thing you do when you hold the book and adore its perfectly thought-out and designed cover, is you turn to the lists to see where the SI experts ranked your favorite players.  Where did they rank Joe Namath? After Lombardi, who was the next Coach? Who were their choices for best offensive lineman, defensive back and so on.  Thankfully, they did not attempt to rank the Place Kickers but I would’ve been interested in the all-time great Punters.

Best Plays? Rivalries? Trades? Movies? Franchises?  It's all there.  They even ranked the best NFL-related Sports Illustrated covers of all-time.

The next impression after reading the “top 10” lists, is to immediately flip through the book to adore - get that - ADORE - the photography. While SI's depth in writing is beyond comparison in American sports writing lore, the photography is unquestionably the best sports photography in the history of the art. The second life of this book is to take hours upon hours and examine every single photograph.

Can it have a third life? Yes sir and that's the writing, of course. 

After flipping through the book and acting like a little kid on Christmas morning, the most enjoyable aspect of Sports Illustrated's Football's Greatest is the script. From the thought-provoking or memorable quotations to the introductory paragraphs of each section to the features on the top players, the book is a dream come true for those who treasure the written word.

"The beginning of the process was that we polled our longtime football writers and editors, asking them the best quarterbacks, defensive backs, the best games, plays - all the categories you see in the book," said Syken when he was asked how he dealt with the enormity of his assignment. "They sent their top 10 choices, along with commentary explaining their selections. From there, it was compiling them, just like you would do with a poll. 

"After that, the next job was to do the photo research and find the best photos, whether for a two-page spread or single page, plus a passage from a classic SI story related to the topic. So, we selected the photos, along with our photo staff and I went through the SI Vault and did a lot of reading, looking for the really great stories to find a couple paragraphs to go on each page. We wanted to give people something enjoyable to read that captures the essence of each selection," said Syken.

While you might believe the challenge of researching, editing and, ultimately, whittling down the massive amount of photography and stories might be a painstaking assignment, Syken and his colleagues enjoyed the process

"It can sound like a lot, but it was actually a lot of fun," he said. "It was fun going through the archives and finding these nuggets.  One that stands out, as an example; The Redskins were among the Top 10 franchises and while I was looking for a paragraph on the Redskins franchise, as opposed to a specific player or game, it was fun to find a Frank Deford story from 1979 when he was talking about sports in Washington and in general, we came across this quote from (former President) Richard Nixon explaining the unique role the Redskins play in Washington DC. It was fun to discover stuff like that."

Aside from his insight gleaned from hours of researching the written words and reviewing and selecting the photography depicted throughout the book, Syken had a keen observation that should be shared with everyone who loves football and appreciates the art and dedication of a photographer who stood out in the freezing cold, driving rain or even unbearable heat and sunshine to capture an image.

"This was something we talked about a lot," noted Syken as he explained the nuances of the book he helped create. "You generally think of technology as this march forward and it's always getting better and better and better. It's really amazing how beautiful the old pictures are. A couple of my favorite pictures in this book are in our section on the best single-season teams, and we have two of the (Green Bay) Packers teams from the '60s, the 1962 Packers and the 1966 Packers. Those are some amazing pictures, the color, how beautiful these photos truly are.

"I was showing the book to a nine year old who grew up in the new era of single-use stadiums, so it was fun for this child to see the baseball stadium that they were playing football in - and there's the home plate and the baselines.  It was an interesting piece of history."

Right he is. The stunning quality of the photography, shot on film and developed just right or the striking beauty of a black & white image taken at the old, old Yankee Stadium. My words cannot do it justice.

Meanwhile, the choices and rankings are pleasantly and surprisingly "agreeable," for lack of a better word for a positive analysis.

"There were some close calls,' said Layden. There tended to be much more consensus at the top, but there was no unanimous choice in any one category. The closest we came was Jim Brown had six of seven, but one writer was in favor of Walter Payton. Jerry Rice had six out of seven, but someone argued for Don Hudson and right on down the line. That said, there was often a cluster among the top players. When it came to linebackers, Lawrence Taylor was "No. 1" but the top four was as close to a full consensus that we had at that level. Generally, after No. 1, it spread out. 

"The most unusual choice and maybe the most interesting and thought-provoking was Tim Layden's choice of Yankee Stadium as the best football stadium. There were classic games, like the great Giants vs. Colts and the 1962 NFL championship against the Packers."

So, what were Syken's and the SI editor's emotions after they hit the "print" button and the first edition rolled off the printing presses?

"When you first get the book, you look at the rankings," he described. "You are just curious as to who falls where. Then, I think it's a product with some of the best writers and photography.  Is a celebration of the very best football players but is also the best photography and the best sports writing the magazine has ever published. I think it works on a lot of levels."

Sports Illustrated's Football Greatest is a book that has three separate and incredible lives to it. It is a book that should sit right in front of you on every football Sunday as it is something that you can pick up a hundred times and always find something new, different, informative or just plain enjoyable to read, peruse and admire, especially with the terrific photography and layout.  It's a must for every football fan and a gift that would be treasured by all who receive it.

Terry Lyons pens a twice-a-week column on the NFL for Foxboro Blog, including his weekly look at “What keeps us up at Night” as NFL fans. Lyons is publisher and editor-in-chief at Boston-based DigitalSportsDesk http://www.digitalsportsdesk.com where he writes on football, basketball, baseball and ice hockey.

no comments

Midseason Report Card: Defensive Edition

Written by Stephen Sheehan on .

 

While their 5-3 record indicates the Patriots have some holes, this team could very well be 8-0 if not for a few fourth-quarter lapses.

As the offense continues to put up huge numbers, the defense has had its moments of brilliance and embarrassment.

After dedicating six draft choices to the defense, the results have been mixed.

First-rounders Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower have been as advertised, with both players demonstrating the physical skills and motor necessary to being future Pro Bowlers.

Tavon Wilson, a surprise second-round choice, has displayed a knack for making plays (three interceptions), but has also given up his share of big plays.

Although the pass defense continues to plague this team, the run defense has been sensational due to the emergence of Brandon Spikes and the consistency of former first-rounder Jerod Mayo.

Through eight games, the Patriots have the league’s stingiest run defense, surrendering a league-low 3.5 yards per carry.

There are certain areas of improvement—particularly in rushing the passer and defending the deep half of the field—but it’s hard to be overly critical of a defense that’s allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 12th in the league.

Let’s take a look at individual player grades for the defensive starters and the top backups.


Defensive Line

Chandler Jones:    Has been incredible as both a run and pass defender. Leads the team with six sacks and looks destined for stardom.

Rob Ninkovich:     Early on it looked like Ninkovich was on the fast track to the bench, but his play over the past four weeks has been sensational. A clutch playmaker, Ninko has four sacks, four forced fumbles and two recoveries.

Vince Wilfork: B+   Big Vince gets a ton of credit for his ability to anchor against the run, but he hasn’t done much on third down.

Kyle Love: B   Isn’t making as many big plays as last year, but he’s a steady presence and a tough guy to block in the run game.

Jermaine Cunningham: B-   Finally making an impact after a lost sophomore season. Has flashed as an interior rusher in pass-rush situations.

Trevor Scott: C-   Was brought on to be a situational pass-rusher but has yet to post a sack in limited snaps.

Ron Brace: C  Looked good in the preseason and camp. Hasn’t done much of anything in regular-season action.

no comments