Last week’s Patriots’ game with the San Francisco 49ers featured many twists and turns. The Pats found themselves down 31-3 at the beginning of the third quarter. They rallied late, but eventually fell short 41-34 and lost control of their own destiny for a first round bye. The only way that could happen now is with two wins and a Denver Broncos’ loss to either the Browns or the Chiefs. Tom Brady is coming off of a week where he had to throw the ball 65 times and the Patriots will still not have Rob Gronkowski this week who is still out with that forearm injury.

This week, the Patriots will load up the sleigh and travel down south to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right now, the Jags are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the worst record in the NFL. For head coach Mike Mularkey, he has dealt with numerous injuries in his first year at the helm. Some of those injuries include quarterback Blaine Gabbert and all-pro running back Maurice Jones-Drew. That being said, I agree with coach Belichick that there are still some good things about the Jags that the Pats have to be concerned with. This is not the time for a letdown as the team tries to re-gain momentum for another playoff run.

Here are my Holiday Themed Keys for this weekend’s game:

In your opinion, what was the biggest takeaway from Sunday Night's wild game?

Raj:   While the Patriots did put on a good show during the latter phases of the game, I just think they ran out of gas. But they shouldn’t have needed to score 28 points to tie the game so what I take away from this match was that while San Francisco was a formidable foe, the Patriots shouldn’t have played overconfidently. The overconfidence they brought from the win over Houston resulted in many turnovers and bad mechanics. New England can’t even blame the weather since they’re so good when it rains/snows. San Francisco doesn’t even play in freezing rain and they performed excellently. As the playoffs come around, the Patriots are going to be playing formidable opponents throughout their journey if they were to make it to Super Bowl XLVII. What they can’t do is come into a big game coming off a big win with an overconfident attitude. If they do that, karma unfortunately will hit them back and that’s certainly not what I want to see.

Jason:  It's going to sound a bit odd, but I came away from that game feeling better about the Pats than the week before. A lot of bounces went New England's way against Houston, and they rightfully demolished the Texans. But you're not going to get all the bounces every week. What happens when games start to get ugly? What happens when weather conditions are awful for the passing game, running backs can't hold onto the ball, the oppossing team recovers eight of nine fumbles, the refs blow several crucial calls against you and you're facing a huge deficit against the league's top defense? The fact that the Patriots nearly prevailed in spite of all of those issues is a testament to the mental toughness of this team. Even in a loss, the takeaway here is that New England is the best and most dangerous team in the league.

Derek: I could go a lot of ways with this one, as I think there was a ton to learn from Sunday's game.  However, the biggest thing that we learned was that the Patriots have progressed to the point where they can hang with any team in the league and no matter what gets thrown at them, they will be able to find an answer for it.  This was the type of game that plagued New England teams of the past, where the running game broke down and teams were able to pressure Brady and a one-dimensional offense.  Games like this were what cost them the Super Bowls against the Giants, and earlier this season against the Cardinals and Seahawks.  The Patriots may not have won on Sunday, but the turnovers were the main reason for the failure, not the 49ers defensive scheme.  If the Patriots can avoid turning over their Super Bowl hopes this playoff season, the Lombardi should end up back in Foxboro.

QB Tom Brady

If you can invent a reason to bench Brady during a week that most leagues play for their championship, more power to ya. The Jags haven’t been a train wreck against the pass, but it’s hard to envision a way they can hold Brady under 300 yards and 2-3 scores.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Brady’s growing chemistry with Lloyd has been one of the underreported stories of the past few weeks, and it looks like they are finally in sync. Look for Lloyd to grab 6 passes for over 80 yards and a score. Welker has been fighting a bad case of the dropsies the past few weeks, but Brady has still looked his way often (the first half of Sunday night’s game notwithstanding). I think he’ll put up north of 70 yards, but a score is always a dicey proposition for Welker since others present better red zone targets.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden

While some Bills fans may take umbrage, I think the Jags have the league’s worst run defense. Only Buffalo has given up more TDs on the ground, and nobody has given up more yards to opposing running backs. Ridley’s pair of fumbles and the loss of the inside track for a first round bye could open the door for more carries for other complimentary players, but I still think he plows ahead for 100 yards and a score against Jacksonville. Woodhead should see plenty of action again after a strong performance against the Niners, so you can pencil him in for at least 50 yards and a decent shot at crossing the stripe. And if the Pats go up big, Vereen and Bolden could see plenty of work late in the game to salt away the lead as well. I wouldn’t shy away from using either in a flex position if I was desperate.

TE Aaron Hernandez

Hernandez has been a stud for several consecutive weeks, and I can’t imagine the Jags will find a way to shut him down in this contest. He’s a safe bet to find the end zone, and he could eclipse 100 yards receiving.

New England Defense/Special Teams

In the past 8 games, the Jaguars have failed to score more than 18 points on six occasions. They’ve given up 42 sacks this season. If you have the Pats’ D, start them with confidence and bank on them allowing fewer than 20 points and getting to the quarterback early and often. Think 2-3 sacks and at least one turnover.

If there was any doubt that the Mayans were right about the end of the world, it has officially been erased.  I, Derek Hanson, am in first place in the Pick 'Em game. This could not happen at a more fitting time.  Ever since this game's inception, it seems like I have had a permanent spot at the back of the pack, finishing last every year.  This season, I've hung with the group, but have never been out in front.  Until today.  Now I can die in peace.

Bring it on, Mayans.

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
MIN @ HOU
IND @ KC
SF @ SEA
CLE @ DEN
CIN @ PIT
NYG @ BAL
NO @ DAL
Last Week	6-1	3-4	4-3	5-2	4-3
Record	64-34	61-37	62-36	64-34	53-45

I love weeks like the one coming up.  Ten of our Top 12 teams are pitted against each other in battles that will send teams flying up and down the board or cementing their spot as we head towards the post-season. 

#1 - San Francisco 49ers

To be the man, you gotta beat the man.  San Francisco beat the man on Sunday Night.

Last Week: 2      Change: +1     Record: 10-3-1       Next Game: @ Seahawks

#2 - Atlanta Falcons

Remember all that talk about shaky wins?  Well there's nothing shaky about a 35-0 drubbing of the defending champions.  Atlanta may be going from the team everyone doubted to the team nobody wants to face in the NFC.

Last Week: 5   Change: +3      Record: 12-2   Next Game: @ Lions

#3 - New England Patriots

It's hard to know whether to praise this team for coming back from down 28 or chastise them for being down 28 in the first place.  The ball didn't bounce New England's way all night, but they still hung tough and put on a second half performance that few teams, if any, on this list would be able to muster.

Last Week: 1    Change: -2       Record: 10-4       Next Game: @ Jaguars

#4 - Denver Broncos

The Broncos continue to benefit from their easy schedule, and will likely do so all the way to a bye week.  I don't care what the records say.  The Broncos aren't better than the Pats and it will stay that way until Peyton Manning can prove otherwise in the Divisional playoff round.

Last Week: 3      Change: -1     Record: 11-3     Next Game: vs. Browns

The Patriots opened as 14.5-point favorites as they travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars in Week 16.

While the loss to the 49ers still stings a bit this morning, there are still plenty of reasons for optimism. One, the Pats played their worst football of the season against their toughest opponent of the season, suffered nearly the worst luck possible (I’m still trying to figure out the odds of a team recovering 8 out of 9 fumbles in a game) and STILL only lost by a TD. Two, they have a safe place to land this week against a Jacksonville team that is largely incapable of playing anything resembling NFL football. Three, we aren’t the Jets. And four, the nature of their loss against the 49ers may make a few oddsmakers temporarily forget how good the Pats really are right now, so there is money to be made on this spread.

I’m having a difficult time putting words to how inexplicably bad the Jaguars have been this season. In the last three weeks, they’ve lost consecutive games to the rest of the AFC East. Stop and let that stew for a few minutes. That’s a team with a rookie quarterback, a team with an Amish quarterback, and a team with a blind, one-armed child molester at quarterback … and the Jags have lost to those teams by a combined total of six touchdowns. Eight of their 12 losses have come by more than a TD, and 7 of those losses were by more than 2 scores. In summary, the Jags are blech.

Hoddie’s stellar record in bounce-back games after a loss is well-documented, and I have a feeling that Brady and Company will be out to make a statement in this game. Normally a 2-TD spread would make me pause for a few minutes, but not against this opponent. I’m taking the Patriots and laying the points, and they’d be my first choice to add to a parlay.

Other Lines I Like

You just can't make up games like this, folks. 

On a night where New England uncharacteristically turned the ball over four times, allowed Colin Kaepernick to throw four touchdown passes and even let Randy Moss snag his 156th career TD reception, the Patriots nearly pulled off a comeback for the ages. 

Almost. 

Down 31-3 early in the third quarter, the Patriots were on the verge of suffering their most embarrasing home loss of my lifetime. 

Then Tom Brady became, well, Tom Brady. 

After being completely shut down in the first half by Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis and Co., Brady engineered four incredible consecutive touchdown drives to tie the game at 31. 

However, as soon as it seemed the Pats would complete the epic turnaround, 49ers rookie LaMichael James took a kickoff back 62 yards, and Michael Crabtree turned what should have been an average completion into a 38-yard score. 

The offensive line got overwhelmed on the ensuing drive, and although the Pats did kick a field goal with less than a minute left, they were unable to recover the onside kick, leaving fans, players and coaches with an empty pit in their stomachs. 

While the offense displayed incredible efficiency in the second half, there were plenty of issues that came to light in the seven-point loss. 

Defensively, the Patriots mixed in spurts of excellence (two turnovers, 5 of 14 on third down) with busted coverages and missed tackles. 

Let's look at this week's risers and fallers. 

Risers

1. Tom Brady, QB: He won't get the W for Sunday's performance, but anyone who watched the Patriots' second-half comeback can appreciate just how competitive and downright badass Tom Brady is. After getting harassed by the 49ers' front seven in the first half, Brady exploded for 367 passing yards in the second half, chipping in a signature goal-line quarterback sneak to boot. Down by 28 at one point, Brady fired up his team and put them in position to pull off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history. I'd be scared to be the Jaguars next week. 

2. Brandon Lloyd, WR: The real Brandon Lloyd has stepped up. After a middling first half of the season, New England's top offseason acquisition has finally emerged as a go-to weapon for TB12. Lloyd quietly racked up 190 yards on 10 receptions, including a beautiful 53-yard bomb down the right sideline. Over his last two games, Lloyd's stat line of 17/279/1 stands out. 

3. Danny Woodhead, RB: With Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen putting the ball on the ground, Bill Belichick turned to Woodhead to pick up the slack. He did that and then some. Once again, Woodhead just found ways to make plays, gaining 61 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries while catching five passes for 23 yards. On a night where ball security was an issue, Woodhead was rock solid. 

4. Vince Wilfork, DT: Anytime you surrender 41 points, you have to look at your defense as the culprit. However, for being put in such bad field position time and time again, New England's D didn't perform as horribly as the stats would indicate. The reason? Big Vince. The burly defensive tackle was an absolute terror on the interior, routinely blowing up plays in the backfield and jacking offensive linemen into Colin Kaepernick or Frank Gore's lap. He's playing on another level right now, even if his stats don't indicate it. 

Fallers

1. Stevan Ridley, RB: New England's second-year back better buy Tom Brady a damn good Christmas present this year to make up for his quarterback's tired arm. Because Ridley put the ball on the ground twice, Brady was forced to attempt an astounding 65 passes against the NFL's best defense. Ridley has been so good this year, but you always wondered if the fumbling would become an issue again. The weather conditions weren't ideal, but Sunday's performance may cost Ridley serious snaps the rest of the way. 

2. Chandler Jones, DE: After taking the league by storm, an ankle injury has sapped Chandler Jones of his mojo. Whether he's 100 percent healthy or not, the 6'5" pass-rusher simply hasn't put pressure on the quarterback like he did early in the season. The Syracuse product racked up six sacks in the first half of the season but has been shut out during his last four games. 

3. Offensive Line: It's hard to knock this group after it kept Brady mostly upright during the 28-point comeback, but in the biggest moment the front five came up short. In need of a touchdown to tie the score at 38, the o-line surrendered back-to-back sacks which ultimately doomed the comeback attempt. Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer had their moments, but both mammoth tackles gave up some untimely sacks. 

- With the Patriots driving and potentially able to cut the deficit to 7 early in the third, a well placed helmet jars the ball from Stevan Ridley
Given the physics involved, there's no way you could have expected him to hang onto the ball.

- Aaron Hernandez gets alligator arms one play after a vicious hit, resulting in the the ball ping-ponging into the arms of a San Fran defender for Brady's second INT

Other than Vereen's bobble, New England's turnovers weren't your typical turnovers where the QB makes a bad throw or the runner simply doesn't hold onto the ball.  On the flip side, the Niners
fumbled six times according to the box score, and the Patriots didn't recover a single one.  Even worse, the Niners actually scored a touchdown off of one of their fumbles.  At some point, you just have to concede that tonight is just not your night.

Unless you're Tom Brady.

What do you think is the single biggest reason for the turn-around from the Patriots defense this season?

Jason: While the secondary is coming together with McCourty's move to safety and the addition of Talib, I think the biggest difference has been the play at linebacker. Mayo has been a solid presence for several years, but the improving play of Spikes, Ninkovich and Hightower has allowed the Patriots to get more aggressive getting after the quarterback. They're not piling up sacks, but they are getting enough pressure to keep opposing quarterbacks on their heels.

Raj:  To be frank, the Patriots defense was very shaky during the first half of the season. They've gotten a lot better now but they aren't the best. However, from my viewpoint, switching Devin McCourty over to safety and adding Aqin Talib as a corner really enhanced this defense, if not bolstered it. Talib isn't Asomugha (although he isn't having a very good season either but I give him the benefit of the doubt because the Eagles are terrible) but he can still defend well. McCourty at safety is much better because it's more comfortable for him and he brings that cornerback presence to the safety zone. When he picked off Matt Schaub last Monday, I knew that (whether McCourty liked it or not) safety is McCourty's forte. Talib did an excellent job of not allowing Andre Johnson to have a monster game and even when Talib went down, Alfonzo Dennard stepped up. He didn't care if he was a rookie covering a pro-bowl receiver. He did his job well and that to me shows that the Patriots have a lot of depth at defense. I would list more names but collectively, the switches made in defensive positions has truly made this Patriots defense a formidable force for offenses around the NFL.

Stephen:  The youth movement has been the biggest reason for the turnaround on defense this season. Whether it's Chandler Jones' six sacks, Dont'a Hightower's versatility, Tavon Wilson's four picks or Alfonzo Dennard's improving coverage skills, the Patriots have gotten great play out of their rookie defenders. All four guys look like they belong, especially Jones and Hightower. Dennard has turned out to be a starting-caliber corner and has played a big role in solidifying the pass defense.

Derek: In my opinion, the vast improvement that this defense has shown is tied to the Aqib Talib trade.  That one move allowed a complete re-shuffling of the secondary to put players where they can be most successful.   The addition of Talib allowed McCourty to move to safety, where he has been a complete beast.  It also allowed Kyle Arrington to move to the slot corner position where he's also been solid, compared to a total liability.  The improvement of Dennard also can't be overlooked. 

With the secondary in much better shape, I believe it allowed Mike Patricia to dial up some more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Instead of being forced to keep his linebackers in coverage, he now has the freedom to send them in rushing.  As a result, the Patriots are no longer playing "bend but don't break" defense.  They're playing a "we're going to break you" defense.