QB Tom Brady

I’m dialing back my enthusiasm for Brady’s fantasy prospects this week because Seattle’s defense is solid, particularly on the back end. The one area I could see the Pats exploiting is the Seahawks’ sub packages by keeping them on the field with the hurry-up, but that’s not enough to make me project more than 260 and 2 scores. Shallow leaguers might be able to find better options.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden, Danny Woodhead

Tempering expectations for Ridley and Bolden would be prudent. I think they’ll split up 115 yards and a score, with Ridley getting the slightly larger slice of the action. The wild card in the equation is Woodhead. His workload could see a slight bump this week as the Pats rush to the line to exploit matchups. I think he’ll see the lion’s share of the work and put up north of 60 total yards. In PPR leagues, he’s certainly flex-worthy.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Welker should see a ton of work on this game, so I wouldn’t give him a downgrade in PPR leagues. He should be a lock for at least 90 yards on 8 catches. Lloyd is a bit trickier to project. Seattle has big, physical corners who are not easily beaten. I think Lloyd ends up somewhere around 5 catches for 60 yards. I think Welker has a slightly better chance than Lloyd of finding the end zone, but not by much.

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

There are rumblings that Hernandez might play, but I would expect his role to be limited in his first game back in action. I’d leave him on the bench this week. Gronkowski figures to get a lot of work between the numbers, so you should count on him going over 75 yards and crossing the stripe.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This is a good week to use New England’s D. The Seahawks like to run to set up the pass, but New England’s front 7 are stout against the run. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has already absorbed 10 sacks and turned the ball over seven times. Look for the Pats to force him into a bunch of unfavorable down-and-distance situations that translate to 3 sacks, 2 turnovers and 17 points allowed.

After New England's balanced attack has rolled off 83 points in the past two weeks, comparisons are being made to the 2007 offense.  In your opinion, which offense is better, 2007 or 2012?

Jason: The 2007 offense was better, and it's not really close. Let's not lose sight of the epic suckiness of the Buffalo D. In Week 1, they made some people think Mark Sanchez deserves a starting job in the NFL. With that said, I do think this offense is good enough to win a championship. But I don't think they are in the discussion with the record-setting machine we saw 5 years ago.

Stephen: Because of the running presence of Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden and the lethal combination of Rob Gronkowski and a healthy Aaron Hernandez, the 2012 offense is superior to the 2007 version. Most people forget that after a record-shattering start, many teams managed to figure out the '07 attack and slowed down the pace as the season progressed, culminating in the 14-point output in the Super Bowl. With Hernandez healthy, New England simply has too many weapons to utilize in too many formations to be shut down.

Derek: At this point, I have to give the nod to the 2007 team.  There is nothing about this current Patriots offense that is anywhere close to as amazing and deadly as the Brady-to-Moss connection five years ago.  That offense shattered all sorts of records - total points, TD throws by a QB, and TD receptions by a receiver.  If it weren't for Asante Samuel's inability to catch a sure interception or the refs swallowing their whistle and not calling one of the 97 holding penalties that occurred during the helmet catch, the 2007 Patriots would be 16-0 and Super Bowl Champions and this discussion would never take place. 

The current Pats squad already has two losses, albeit due to two missed field goals (one by us that didn't count, and one by the Ravens that somehow did count). Still, that 2007 offense was so dominant out of the gate that it would have taken 9-10 field goals on most days to tilt the score.  I like the versatility the Pats are showing, but I think the 2007 comparisons are getting ahead of the game.  That being said, I think this multi-faceted Patriots offense has the potential to be really special, and potentially more effective down the stretch than the 2007 team.  Also, keep in mind that the Pats have been without their most versatible player, Aaron Hernandez, the past four weeks. 

The bottom line is that if the Patriots can pull out the Lombardi in New Orleans this February, nobody will care about how they compare to the 2007 squad.

It's a very tight race at the top.  Jason has tied himself up with Raj, and by some miracle, I'm not that far behind them.  This week may be our best Pick 'Em week yet.  Only one game was unanimous, and three games featured a 3-2 split.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out!

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
PIT @ TEN
STL @ MIA
IND @ NYJ
DAL @ BAL
NYG @ SF
GB @ HOU
DEN @ SD
Last Week	5-2	6-1	4-3	4-3	4-3
Record	22-13	24-11	24-11	21-14	14-21

It's a quiet week for the Top 12, as eight of the top nine teams all walked away with wins.  That's not to say that there wasn't some mild shifting going on, but nothing overly stunning.   With a lot of the big dogs playing sub-par teams, there is room for some excitement next week if our Top 12 underpeform.

#1 - San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have simply steamrolled their AFC East opponents the past two weeks by a combined score of 79-3.   I don't think you can make a stronger argument for them being #1. 

Last Week: 2      Change: +1      Record: 4-1       Next Game: vs. Giants

#2 - Houston Texans

The Texans get their first taste of adversity by losing their star LB Cushing.   The Packers and Ravens loom large the next two weeks as well.   It's time for Houston to prove they belong among the league's elite.

Last Week: 1      Change: -1       Record: 5-0     Next Game: vs. Packers

#3 - Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have had some close calls the past two weeks.  Still, I won't rain on their 5-0 parade by dropping them this week..

Last Week: 3      Change: 0       Record: 5-0       Next Game: vs. Raiders

#4 - New England Patriots

The Patriots have looked down right unstoppable at times.  Still, they always manage to do something that keeps me from being entirely sold on their performance.   Two weeks ago, it was the slow start against the Bills.  This week, they let the Broncos creep back within 10 after leading by 21.

Last Week: 4      Change: 0       Record: 3-2       Next Game: @ Seahawks

The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites as they travel to Seattle in Week 6.

While the Pats are favored, there are tons of reasons for concern. The Seahawks play extremely well at home. Seattle's defense is well above average against both the run and the pass, and their ground game is solid. Their passing game isn't elite, but it's good enough to occasionally move the sticks. You could make a pretty strong argument that the Seahawks are the best team the Pats have faced outside of Baltimore. If Russell Wilson played like a quarterback who came from the SEC instead of the Big 10, Seattle would have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Seattle's D deserves plenty of respect, but I'm not sure if they're built to shut down an offense like New England's. One of the biggest strengths of their defense is elite play from a pair of big, physical corners, but the Pats usually manage to move players around and identify mismatches to create opportunities. And if there is a weak spot in the Seahawks defense, it's probably the linebackers. Ya know, the guys who will be responsible for taking away Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez (assuming he plays).

This week's line has been the toughest number to nail down out of New England's six contests. Conventional wisdom suggests taking the home underdog, but I am neither conventional nor wise. I'm taking the Pats to win and cover.

Other Lines I Like

Bucs (-3) vs. Chiefs

Brady Quinn. On the road. Against a team that's good against the run. And coming off a bye. And following the kind of last-second loss that really tends to piss a team off. By the third quarter, the fans will be wishing they still had Tyler Thigpen.

Rams (+3.5) @ Dolphins

I'll take every chance I get to bet against Miami AND get points. That just feels right. Fresh off a dominating win on Thursday night, the Rams also get extra time to prepare to take on Ryan Tannehill. On a related note, I'd like some extra time to prepare to take on Ryan Tannehill's wife. If you know what I mean.

2012 Record ATS 13-6

Record ATS since 2010 84-72-4

During a week when the entire Presidential debate between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney was reduced to a ridiculous comment about "Big Bird," I find myself amongst the NFL pundits wondering how it was possible to begin this holiday weekend with the National Football League's New England Patriots and New York Jets tied at 2-2 and co-leaders in the NFL's AFC East.

How could that be and can I find some comparison between the two? How is it possible for a supposedly educated public to reduce 90 minutes of heated discussion on the future of the United States of America to a ill-timed remark about balancing the federal deficit by cutting funding to Public Broadcasting?

For the ninth time in 13 tries, Tom Brady and the Patriots came out on top against Peyton Manning.

This time the circumstances were a little different.

Manning, playing in his first game against the Pats as a Bronco, was typically lethal in picking apart New England’s oft-burned secondary.

Brady, however, got most of his yardage on short routes, letting the running game stomp over the helpless Broncos front seven.

Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead engineered a lethal rushing attack, which accounted for 251 yards and three touchdowns as the Patriots beat the Broncos at Gillette Stadium, 31-21.

Defensively, Rob Ninkovich continued his stellar play, forcing two critical fumbles.

Jerod Mayo led the way with 13 tackles, including a sack against Manning.

With the Patriots finally above .500, let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Rob Ninkovich, DE: For the first three weeks, Rob Ninkovich was neutralized and often invisible. In New England’s back-to-back wins, he’s been superb. The veteran defensive end said he took the commentary about his lackluster play personally and has since concentrated on just beating the man in front of him. With four tackles, a sack and two forced fumbles, he did just that.

2. Wes Welker, WR: So much for phasing No. 83 out of the passing game. Wes Welker was virtually uncoverable for the entire game, racking up 13 catches for 104 yards and his first score. Whatever was going on in Week 1 has clearly been forgotten as New England’s hyper-quick slot machine operated at full capacity against Denver’s secondary.

3. Stevan Ridley/Brandon Bolden/Danny Woodhead, RBs: There’s no way around it: The Patriots are morphing in front of our eyes. For a team that’s made its money in the regular season by throwing all day, this year the focus has shifted back to the ground game. Ridley finished the day with 151 yards on 28 carries, although he had a potentially costly fumble in the fourth quarter. Bolden continues to run hard, break tackles and display good ball security in contact. With Ridley fumbling in consecutive games, his role could expand. Woodhead remains a valuable situational back, picking up big yardage on third downs.

4. Tom Brady, QB: It wasn’t a flawless performance, but anyone who watched this game saw just how extraordinary Brady is in pre-snap manipulation. New England’s star quarterback barked out orders to his receivers and linemen, identified the Mike linebacker, called out audibles and put the team in great situations. Brady didn’t beat Denver deep, but took what was there and was extremely accurate.

Fallers

1. Devin McCourty, CB: A week after making great plays on the ball, McCourty regressed. His coverage was mostly good, but he still struggles to turn around and locate the football. That failure to play the ball resulted in a costly pass interference, and although he had tight coverage on Eric Decker near the goal line, he overplayed the route and allowed Decker to turn back and score on a back shoulder throw.

2. Pat Chung, S: If New England’s top pick in 2009 continues to play like this, I doubt he’ll be brought back next season. Chung doesn’t necessarily hurt the team, but he doesn’t seem to help much either. He simply doesn’t make impact plays and is often too late to the ball in coverage. I have no doubt he has the physical makeup to be a good safety, but his technique and instincts just aren’t up to par.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the return of the annual Brady/Manning showdown, but I, for one, was not all that excited for the reunion.  At this point in his career, Peyton Manning, with his bionic neck, just isn't on the same level as Brady.  The Broncos, as the 31-7 3rd quarter score would suggest, aren't on the same level as the New England Patriots.  The names on the backs of the jerseys may have been the same, but a 2003 Colts/Pats matchup this was not. 

Well, until about mid-way through the 4th quarter, that is.  That's when Bill Belichick, up 31-14, decided to summon the ghost of Manning past, by going for it on 4th and 5 from the Pats own 40-45.   I found this to be extremely questionable at the time.  The Patriots were in no need of points.  A punt may have netted them only 20 yards on a touchback, but a failure to convert would have left the Broncos with decent field position.  Well, not only did the Patriots fail to convert, but Tom Brady fumbled the ball backwards about 20 yards, setting up the Broncos with supreme field position.  Manning seized the moment and suddenly the Patriots found themselves up by a mere 10, with 5 minutes to go. 

At that point, uneasieness set in, but was quickly erased as the Patriots steamrolled their way down the field.  And then Stevan Ridley fumbled...   And Manning drove his team down the field...   And into the red zone...     And then all that repressed post-traumatic stress came flooding back as we remembered Peyton Manning coming back from the dead, chainsaw in hand, ready to hack our dreams to shreds...    The 2006 AFC Championship Game...   4th and 2...   And then...

Rob Ninkovich drilled us all back to reality when he knocked the ball loose from Willis McGahee to seal the Patriots victory.   No, this game was not a Brady/Manning classic of old.   But it almost was. 

Brady/Manning XIII is on the horizon.  Does this match-up still get you excited?  Is Peyton Manning still Brady's biggest rival, or does that title belong to another QB?

Stephen: There will never be another quarterback who rivals Tom on the same level as Peyton — except his younger brother. Peyton should go down as one of, if not the best, quarterback of all time. However, I think the two Super Bowl losses to the Giants gives Eli the edge right now in terms of a rivalry. Brady has beaten Peyton time and time again, but he's down 0-2 against Eli. That needs to change.

Jason: I don't think Peyton is even Brady's biggest rival among members of his own family. Eli has three straight victories over Brady and narrowly missed out on ruining New England's run at 16-0. And even though Joe Flacco is a pretty meh quarterback, you could make the case for him being a bigger rival than Peyton as well. Manning-Brady will still be a great matchup this time around, and I'm excited in that sense. But the days of this matchup deciding which team makes the Super Bowl are over.

Raj: I am very excited for this matchup. I grew up watching Brady and Manning duel it out. Recent years, Peyton has had a slight edge but it'll still be really interesting to see how he fares against the Pats with his new Broncos teammates. I am also nervous about this because Peyton has the skill to scare the Patriots despite who he plays with and Denver has a pretty good offense. He will always be Brady's rival. Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco are the other AFC Elite QBs but they don't have anything to do with Brady and any QB on the Jets isn't even worth comparing. So this should be a very very interesting match Sunday evening.

Derek: I'm excited for today's game, but moreso because the Patriots are playing a playoff-caliber team and have a shot to get a winning-streak going than the fact that Peyton Manning is returning to Foxboro.  Those epic Colts/Patriots battles were whole-team affairs that went beyond the big-name QB's.  There was often critical post-season positioning and championships on the line.  Today's contest pales in comparison.

In terms of the rivalry though, I'm going to have to throw some cold water on this steamy Brady/Eli rivalry.  The two Super Bowls aside, you simply can't have a fierce rivalry when you play a team once every four years.  Just like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees aren't considered Brady's rivals, I don't think you can throw Eli in that boat either.  Keep in mind that the Giants defense played a much larger role in thwarting Brady than anything Eli did. Right now, I don't think there's any true QB rival for Brady in the AFC, so the default setting goes to Manning for historic purposes.  That could change though depending on how Brady's Week 10 matchup with Matt Schaub goes and if the Pats and Texans meet in the playoffs.

After staring at a possible 1-3 record early in the second half against the Buffalo Bills last week, the New England Patriots put up 45 points in the 2nd half to improve their record to 2-2. The team is starting to get healthy by the day, especially with the news that tight end Aaron Hernandez returned to practice this week. This week’s game will be trickier than last week as they take on a team they are familiar with from last season and a quarterback who Bill Belichick has seen numerous times over the last decade.

The team I am talking about is the Denver Broncos and the quarterback is Peyton Manning. After shipping Tim Tebow to the New York Jets, general manager John Elway brought in Manning to improve the passing game. While there were some blips early on (3 INT’s at Atlanta), Manning had his best performance of the season last week vs. the Raiders completing 30 of 38 passes for three touchdowns. When Manning and Brady go against each other, most of the time, these games turn out to be classics. As you will see, I don’t expect this game to be any different.

Here are my keys to Sunday’s matchup in Foxboro: