The Patriots opened as 12.5-point favorites as they host the Bills in Week 17.

It's a foregone conclusion that the public is going to back the Bills heavily based on this spread. Buffalo beat New England earlier this year, and they're coming off a commanding victory over Denver. New England's defensive strategy the past several weeks has basically centered on sending eleven healthy bodies onto the field and hoping opposing running backs and wide receivers run into them and fall down (and for the most part, it's actually worked). Why wouldn't you back the Bills?

For starters, their most recent win over Denver was a bit fluky and driven by turnovers (two pick sixes and four total INTs). The contest was more of a loss by Denver than a win for Buffalo. In their previous seven games, the Bills had zero wins and were outscored by 114 points. For comparison's sake, the Pats won six of seven and had a +98 point differential in that same time frame. It's not like we're comparing LSU and Alabama here. One of the worst things you can do in sportsbetting is weigh the most recent final score too heavily. Any lousy team can look good for one game. It's rare for a lousy team to achieve sustained success (except maybe the Broncos, but they're just weird).

The Bills aren't a pushover, but they can only make this game close if they win the turnover battle by a healthy margin. I'll take the Patriots to cover.

Other Lines I Like

Colts (+4) @ Jaguars

The Colts have been better with Orlovsky under center (I'm not sure exactly how they could have been worse, but that's a subject for another day). I can't envision the Jags winning, ever. It feels like they haven't won a game since the 30s. Any time I have a chance to bet against Jacksonville and get points, I'll take it.

Broncos (-3) vs. Chiefs

I'm not buying KC's late-season resurgence. The Broncos have struggled against opponents that feature a strong, diverse offense and a good pass rush. The Chiefs don't have either of those things.

Chargers (+3) @ Raiders

The Chargers suck. I get that. However, the Raiders haven't played well in two months either. Since Week 7, they have a -44 point differential. And somehow, they could make the playoffs and possibly even host a game in the first round. I think I speak for everyone outside of Oakland when I say, blech. I'm betting on karma here.

Panthers (+7.5) @ Saints

A few weeks ago, I said I'd be fading the Panthers a lot in the second half. And now I've picked them two weeks in a row. What can I say? Sportsbetting is an inexact science. Carolina is terrifying as a favorite, but they are great as an underdog. They're even better when they're playing an opponent with a defense that alternates between inadequate and non-existent.

2011 Record ATS 41-38-4
2010 Record ATS 25-17

 In a disturbing trend, the Patriots started off slow.

Well, that might be an understatement.

By the end of the half, Tom Brady and the offense had gone scoreless on seven drives while the defense surrendered 17 points to Matt Moore.

Whatever was said in the locker room at halftime certainly did the job, as the second half was a totally different story.

Brady put the team on his back and engineered 27 straight points as New England stormed back to capture a tight 27-24 victory.

While the defense had a typically inconsistent performance, it came up big in the second half as the offense came to life.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Jerod Mayo: A week after signing a lucrative five-year extension, the 2010 All-Pro played like one against Miami. The fourth-year pro racked up a team-high 13 tackles and came up with two sacks. Despite missing time with an MCL injury, Mayo leads the team with 89 tackles and has become more of a playmaker this year with two sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble. On a defense with so many inconsistencies, Mayo is the one constant.

2. Wes Welker: Samson Satele for Wes Welker….doesn’t seem so fair now does it? Looking to bolster their receiving corps, the Pats traded a second-rounder in 2007 for the undersized returner/slot man from Miami. The Dolphins selected Satele, who now starts for the Raiders, and the Pats got the league’s leading receiver. Welker burned his old team for 12 catches for 138 yards in another typically efficient performance. The 5-foot-8 jackrabbit was Brady’s go-to man on third down and was simply too quick for any of the Dolphin corners.

3. Stevan Ridley: Fans and draft analysts alike were thrown off by the back-to-back running back selections in the 2011 draft. Ridley is proving us wrong. The third-rounder out of LSU led the team with 13 carries for 64 yards and is looks poised to become the No. 1 back as BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to be ineffective down the stretch. Ridley has good size (5-foot-11, 225 pounds) and appears to run much faster than his 4.65 forty time. The slasher powered through defenders and gained plenty of yards after contact in another impressive performance. He could be the key to the ground game come playoff time.

4. Second-half adjustments: Coaching can be an underrated part of the game, but this one was a classic example of how it can change the game. After getting embarrassed for the first 30 minutes, New England came out firing on all cylinders in the second half as the offense increased its tempo and worked out of the no huddle offense. Brady surgically picked apart the Dolphins tiring defense and the Pats mixed in Ridley and Woodhead to keep them on their toes. Defensively, New England dialed up the pressure and finished the game with eight quarterback hits and five sacks. Not bad for a defense without Andre Carter.

Fallers

1. Devin McCourty: At first glance, nine tackles, four passes defended and an interception look like a great day for the former first-rounder. Stats don’t tell the whole story. DMC may have batted down a few balls and snagged another, but he had another maddeningly inconsistent day as Brandon Marshall abused him in coverage. Marshall, who relies on strength and size more than speed, continually got behind McCourty and reeled in some big plays en route to a 22.3 yards per catch average. While it was encouraging to see McCourty make some plays on the ball, he needs to become consistent if this defense has any chance of stopping a more threatening passing attack.

2. Stopping the run: For the second straight week, the Patriots surrendered 100+ yards to an opposing back. The reborn Reggie Bush had his way with the front seven, making defenders miss and picking up yards after contact. The Dolphins lead back finished the day with 113 yards on 22 carries, good for 5.1 yards per carry. While the Pats did manage to keep him out of the end zone, they desperately need Pat Chung and Brandon Spikes back in the lineup to add more physicality.

3. Sergio Brown: When I see No. 31 with dreads missing tackles, I scramble to the depth chart to make sure Brandon Meriweather isn’t still on the team. Unfortunately, one of his replacements, Brown, hasn’t fared much better. The former special teams standout has proven he is incapable of playing significant snaps on defense as he’s a poor tackler and doesn’t seem instinctual enough to make plays in coverage either. If there was anyone better, I’d bench Brown.

As the dust begins to settle, this game is becoming more and more of a two-man race.  Stephen's got a comfortable four game lead over Rick, and after that, things start getting a little dicey.  Still, this game is far from over.  If Philly and KC prevail, Rick will have cut the deficit in half, heading down the home stretch to Week 17.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
ATL @ NO
ARI @ CIN
NYG @ NYJ
SD @ DET
PHI @ DAL
OAK @ KC
DEN @ BUF
Last Week	2-5	4-3	4-3	4-3	1-6
Record	46-47	58-35	60-33	64-29	57-36

As we head into the Christmas season, there are only two games left in the 2011 regular season. The Patriots (11-3) find themselves in control of their own destiny to have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. On Saturday, they take on the 5-9 Miami Dolphins. New England has the momentum now after their 41-23 win over the fighting Tim Tebows (a.k.a the Denver Broncos). Now, I want to see New England dominate inferior competition with their defense. Before the Broncos game, this Patriots’ defense played five quarters of their worst football against Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman.

I can’t think of a team that has worst luck than the Miami Dolphins. They sign Reggie Bush in the offseason after failing to recruit Jim Harbaugh as their head coach. They start the year 0-7 under Tony Sparano and they are in the running for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Then, they win four in a row with Matt Moore and fire Sparano. When they thought they were in the running to get Matt Barkley, Barkley decided to stay at USC yesterday. But, they are playing some of their best football with Matt Moore at quarterback and we all know that divisional games are never one that you could write a win in pen before the game. Can interim coach Todd Bowles continue to spark Miami to a solid finish to their year?

Here are my keys to this Christmas Eve matchup in Foxboro:

1. Reggie’s Rushing To The North Pole: The Dolphins usually don’t play well in the cold over the course of their franchise history. However, they went up to Buffalo and played well last week. The guy who I thought would be the worst running back in the AFC East coming into the year has actually stepped up. Reggie Bush ran for 203 yards and a TD against the Bills on Sunday. He has run for an average of 135 yards per game in the last three games. I look for him to be a bigger rushing factor in this one compared to the first game when Bush had more receiving yards (56) than rushing yards (38).

2. Wake Up On Christmas Eve: On the night of Christmas Eve, children go to sleep so that Santa can come to bring those presents. Well, let us hope that the Patriots’ offensive line does not fall asleep in the afternoon against this Miami defense, particularly against Cameron Wake. Wake has 7.5 sacks, which is half as many as he had last year. In the first game of the year, Wake did have a sack, but only had three tackles in the loss. If the Dolphins are going to win this game, Wake needs to make an impact on the defensive side. Otherwise, Tom Brady might just throw for 500+ yards once again.

3. A New Reindeer leads the Pass Rush: With Andre Carter out for the season with an injured quadriceps, a new defensive end has to pull Bill Belichick’s team of pass rushers, or lack thereof. I look for Mark Anderson to be the Rudolph of this defense. He has nine sacks on the season, and had two in the win over the Broncos. He was a misfit with the Chicago Bears, until Belichick said to come join his pass rush. Now, Anderson is thriving and will have his chance to be the difference. Plus, Patrick Chung will probably be back this weekend, which adds a little more depth in the secondary to produce some form of pass rush.

PREDICTION: Christmas Eve should be a joyous one for Patriots’ fans. With a win on Christmas Eve, New England will clinch at least a first round bye thanks in part to the Houston Texans losing to the Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady and Wes Welker should be able to have the same connection that they had in Week One. Brandon Marshall is going to put up yards against this Patriots defense, since he put up 139 yards in Week One. However, I think New England keeps Miami from scoring more than 20 points. The Patriots know how to finish off the year strong and I expect they get their 7^th straight win this week.

PATRIOTS 38 DOLPHINS 20

Happy holidays!

Tom Brady

Brady is likely to be the deciding factor in a lot of fantasy title games this weekend. The Dolphins have been torched by the pass this season, giving up 21 TDs through the air and allowing 250+ yards per game. The Dolphins should score enough on offense to keep the Pats throwing the ball. Expect Brady to have a solid outing with 3-4 TDs and well over 300 yards. He’s the top QB on my board this week, and it isn’t close.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

Welker had a quiet week, but he has been a Dolphin killer in his 8 career games against his old team. Anything less than 7 catches for 90 yards would be a disappointment. Branch has been dealing with a groin injury, and there is little incentive for the Pats to rush him back. I wouldn’t rely on him even if he’s active. Even though Ochocinco reeled in a TD, I would not roll the dice on him this week either. The WR corps should be Welker or bust this week.

New England’s Muddled Mess of a Backfield

The Dolphins are among the league’s better teams against the run, so I would elsewhere for help this week. If you’re forced to chose between New England running backs, I could foresee BJGE and Ridley dividing up 18-22 touches and around 80 yards. Woodhead is nothing more than a desperation play in very deep PPR leagues.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

Hernandez broke out in a big way last week, reeling in 9 catches for 129 yards and a score. Look for the good times to continue this week since the Pats may have to rely on their tight ends more with Branch hobbled. Don’t be surprised to see each tight end find the end zone and flirt with 100 yards.

Stephen Gostkowski

4-5 XP and a FG is the norm.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams

The Pats lost their leading pass-rusher to injury, and the Dolphins have done a pretty good job of protecting the football and avoiding costly mistakes in recent weeks. I’d expect around 2 sacks, 1 turnover and around 20-24 points allowed. You can probably find better options.

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Daniel Eliesen from Phins Phocus.  Here's what Daniel had to say about the Phins and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

The Patriots opened as 10-point favorites as they host the Miami Dolphins in Week 16.

You’ll have to excuse me today. I’m a bit hung over after celebrating the Pats win and AFC East title, the Ravens loss and the Pittsburgh loss that gave the Pats the inside track toward the top seed in the AFC and homefield advantage. I’m going to be a bit more brief than usual because the loud clacking of these keys is giving me a massive headache.

When these two teams met in Week 1, the Patriots won by two scores. The Dolphins took a dive after that game, losing the next six in a row and putting their head coach in hot water (see what I did there? dolphins? dive? hot water? whatever, maybe I’m still drunk). However, since that tailspin, they’ve recovered to win five of their past seven, with one loss coming by a single point to the Cowboys. Miami has quietly put together a solid second half behind efficient QB play from backup Matt Moore. On a related note, who would have guessed that Miami would be better off without Chad Henne? I mean, besides anyone with eyes.

New England’s struggles on the defensive side of the ball are well documented. Seriously, how many offensive players have been taking snaps on defense this year? Three? Four? Seven? The Dolphins are far from an offensive juggernaut, but it’s safe to assume they will be able to put up a reasonable number of points against the Pats on Saturday.

Ten points is a lot to give up to a team that isn’t completely inept, and Miami barely clears that low hurdle. I’m picking the Dolphins to cover.

Other Lines I Like

Panthers (-7.5) vs. Bucs

The Newtons have won three of four, and the Bucs look like a team that has completely given up on the season. Tampa has not been good on either side of the ball this year, and they’ve lost eight in a row and weren’t competitive in most of those contests. I can’t see them pulling it together on the road this week.

Chargers (+2.5) @ Lions

The Chargers only play well when they are on the cusp of elimination. The Lions only play well when they’re down by two touchdowns in the third quarter. It’s very possible that both of these scenarios play out this week, but I like San Diego’s running attack enough to think they keep Stafford and Megatron on the sidelines for big chunks of clock.

Vikings (+6.5) @ Redskins

I don’t think this Vikings team has quit yet. The 42-20 beating last week was ugly, but Drew Brees has a tendency to make any team look silly on any given Sunday. Three of Minnesota’s last five games have been decided by a score or less. And I still can’t bring myself to jump on the Grossman train (I imagine such a train would have around three or four heavily vandalized cars and a caboose with no wheels).

Saints (-7) vs. Falcons

The Saints are extremely tough at home, and Atlanta hasn’t been terribly impressive all year. Drew Brees is dialed in right now. “Don’t bet against Drew Brees at home when he’s hot” is very close to joining “Never bet on the Chargers in the first seven games of the season” and “Always take the over when the Patriots are playing” as immutable gambling laws.

2011 Record ATS 37-37-4
2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

Tebow Time took a time warp yesterday.

The first quarter looked more like the late-game version of Tim the Savior, with the Broncos destroying the Patriots makeshift defense.

The rest of the game? Bubble burst.

Thanks to some solid schematic adjustments and some costly Broncos bumbles, the Patriots scored 27 unanswered points, shut down the Broncos offense and steamrolled their way to a 41-23 victory.

Despite clinching their ninth AFC East division title in 11 years, the Patriots suffered a huge loss on the field as defensive end Andre Carter suffered a season-ending quad injury, according to various reports.

As much as he is lauded for his 10 sacks, Carter has been equally dominant in the run game. The steady veteran will be sorely missed on a defense that’s been stretched dangerously thin.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1.       Aaron Hernandez: During my freshman year at the University of Florida, I had the privilege of watching Hernandez in person. When he fell to the fourth round in the 2010 draft, I couldn’t believe a talent like him was still available on the final day. Apparently neither did the Pats. After a solid, but inconsistent rookie year, the other half of the league’s top tight end duo has officially played his way into Pro Bowl consideration. With the Broncos focused on taking away Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker, Hernandez torched the Broncos linebackers for a career-high nine catches for 129 yards a touchdown. The Connecticut-native has an incredible combination of speed and agility and is one of the best in the league at generating yards after the catch.

2.       Mark Anderson: With Carter going down at the end of the first quarter, the team’s second-leading sack artist did what he does best: get after the quarterback. Playing both defensive end and outside linebacker, Anderson racked up two sacks and a crucial forced fumble. While his size limits his effectiveness as a run defender, he makes use of his great athleticism to put pressure on the passer. If the Pats have any shot at a deep playoff run, Anderson will have to prove he can shoulder the load.

3.       Pass protection: The Dumervil/Miller train appeared off its tracks on Sunday. While no one (especially Tom Brady) will forget Dumervil’s bone-crushing sack, the Broncos fearsome pass rush recorded only one other sack and a total of three quarterback hits on 34 passing attempts. Matt Light has stepped up his game over the second half of the season, shutting down the likes of Dwight Freeney, Trent Cole, Jason Babin and Brian Orakpo. Nate Solder/Marcus Cannon didn’t embarrass themselves at right tackle either.

4.       Kicking game: Stephen Gostowski has rebounded with two flawless performances, making both field goal attempts and all five extra-point attempts. Julian Edelman averaged 7.7 yards per punt return and made a great diving tackle on kickoff coverage. Overall, the improvement of the coverage units has been encouraging as it’s given the defense better field position. Zoltan Mesko averaged 40.5 yards per punt, with three of his four kicks downed inside the 20.

Fallers

1.       Run defense: In an alarming trend, the Patriots run defense was gashed early and often. The Broncos came out firing and trampled their way to two rushing touchdowns in the first quarter. Linebacker Dane Fletcher struggled to shed blocks and the safeties exhibited some poor tackling technique. Denver averaged an astounding 8.1 yards per carry on 31 totes and totaled three TDs. Hopefully the return of Brandon Spikes and Pat Chung will cure this issue.

In the final road test for the New England Patriots, they go west to the Mile High City to take on the 8-5 Denver Broncos. New England comes in at 10-3 and a win away from clinching the AFC East. However, it did not come easy last week as the Patriots had to survive a tough test in Washington thanks in part to a late Rex Grossman interception. Nevertheless, a win is a win, and this will be a tough test for a franchise that has had its problem up in the Mile High State over the last decade.

As for this Denver Broncos’ team, they were a team that started the year 1-4 under Kyle Orton. Then, Tim Tebow took the reins and this team has clicked to six straight wins. However, it has not just been Tebow’s fourth quarter abilities. The defense has improved, let my rookie linebacker Von Miller and his double digit sacks and the ground game with Willis McGahee has been big for John Fox’s ball control offense. They went from a team looking to draft a high quarterback to a team that is thinking about the playoffs and beyond with the AFC West lead.

Here are my keys to this AFC thriller in Denver this week:

1. Who will cover Gronk?: That’s been the question that most defensive coordinators have asked all season. For the Broncos, they may have a huge dilemma in that regard. They are injured in the secondary with safety Brian Dawkins and cornerback Andre Goodwin limited in practice the last couple of days. I talked with John Bena of MileHighReport.com this week and he told me to look for linebacker Wesley Woodyard to cover the man with the most touchdowns by a tight end in a single season. Woodyard has 27 tackles in his last five games. He can also force turnovers since he has three forced fumbles in those five games. He is unknown, but its those unknown guys that can make a difference.

2. Step Away from the Von: The most impactful player on the Denver defense is Von Miller. Miller was taken with the 2^nd pick in this year’s draft and has not disappointed all season. He has 11.5 sacks this year, which leads the team. The Patriots need to make sure Matt Light has an eye on him at all times. Miller and Elvis Dumervil have been one of the top 1-2 young defensive ends in the league. We all know if the Patriots’ offense is going to get off to that hot start they need to avoid Tebow’s 4^th quarter heroics, they have to start with a good rhythm.

3. Tebow’s 4^th quarter weapon: Tim Tebow is a tale of two halves as we know, but Tebow needs someone to throw the ball too to have his 4^th quarters be a success. The receiver I am watching out on is Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has 18 catches this year, but 11 of them have come in the 4^th quarter. He made some big catches in their win over the Bears in overtime on Sunday. With New England’s secondary probably without Patrick Chung again, I look for Denver to spread it out and complete passes like Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman did.

PREDICTION: I will start my prediction by saying that I am a Tim Tebow supporter and think he can be a successful NFL quarterback. The dude just has a will to win and it is tough to deny that. As far as Sunday goes, the Patriots need to get off to a hot start to win this game. However, New England has not had great 1^st quarters in the last few games. This game will be close and I think will come down to who has the ball last. People say Tebow can’t spread the ball out against this defense. Take a look at a game I found from last year that shows why I think Tebow can have 250+ passing yards Sunday.

Last year, Tim Tebow played the league’s worst pass defense as well (Houston Texans). Here is his line from that game:

16/29 – 308 yards – 1 touchdown, 1 interception

I see the Broncos fighting back in the 4^th quarter, but Brady has the ball last and drives New England in position for a game winning Stephen Gostkowski field goal

PATRIOTS 27 BRONCOS 24

Tom Brady

The Broncos are firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense. They’ve given up 20 TDs through the air this season, and I think it’s safe to assume they’ll give up around 3 more this week to go along with 300+ yards. If the Broncos keep the game close, Brady might flirt with 400 and 4. Start him with even more confidence than usual.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

Welker is an every-week starter, and I would anticipate a lot of quick throws to neutralize the Denver pass rush. He’ll likely draw coverage from Champ Bailey when he lines up outside, but the Pats should move him around enough to keep him in the 7 catch, 100 yard range. I wouldn’t be afraid to use Branch as a flex play this week, as I think he has a decent shot at finding paydirt since teams will be focusing on containing Gronkowski in the red zone. He will probably be around 4 catches and 55 yards.

New England’s Muddled Mess of a Backfield

I give up. Seriously. If you start any of the BJGE/Woodhead/Faulk/Ridley/Vereen logjam during a playoff week in anything but the deepest of leagues, you are playing with fire.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

Denver has fast, athletic linebackers that could limit Gronk’s volume, but he is still a good bet for at least 5 catches, 80 yards and a score. I like Hernandez this week as defenses try to figure out how to take away Gronkowski. Brady won’t hold the ball long, so Hernandez should see a minimum of a half-dozen targets. He’s a good candidate to find the end zone.

Stephen Gostkowski

Another typical 4-5 XPs, 2 FGs. Ho hum.

New England Defense/Special Teams

Denver does not turn the ball over often, and they do a decent job of limiting game-killing mistakes. If the Patriots don’t jump out to a big early lead, I’d expect the Broncos to put up around 20-24 points and allow 2 or fewer sacks and no more than one turnover. If the Patriots jump all over Denver early, you could probably revise those sack/turnover numbers up a notch or two.