Week 17 in the NFL is always a difficult thing to figure out.  Which teams will play hard and which will rest?  With that in mind, this Week 16 version of the rankings could very well be the most accurate we'll have heading into the playoffs.  For the first time in a long time we have some turmoil at the top, with some shifting of the first four places.  Some teams appear to be peaking at just the right time, while others are in turmoil. 

The big riser this week is the Kansas City Chiefs, who swoop up three spots after putting together some dominating high-pressure wins.  The playoffs essentially started two weeks ago for KC and they've handled the situation admirably.  The big faller is also from the AFC West.  The San Diego Chargers' roller coaster through the Top 12 continues as one week they look like contenders and complete failures the next.  They drop six spots following their big loss to drop them out of the playoffs.

The Patriots-Dolphins game in Week 17 is currently off most boards pending further news on how many snaps New England starters are likely to play after locking up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs last week.

History offers a little bit of insight on how the Patriots might approach this game. Last year in Week 17, the Patriots had clinched the division and faced a meaningless game against the Texans. Coach Belichick opted to play his starters on defense for most of that game, and he had Brady on the field for all but two drives. The team’s leading rusher (the oft-injured Laurence Maroney, who spends less time at work than most DOT workers) was held out of the game to get some rest. After the game, Belichick said that he did not make a decision on how much starters would play prior to the game, opting instead to let game circumstances dictate the number of snaps his starters would be on the field.

With the Patriots already clinching a bye for the first week of the playoffs this year, I think we’ll see the Pats take a similar approach in Week 17. Anybody who is hurting right now (that’s about half of the starting defense) will probably see a limited number of snaps. If the game is a blowout in the first half, the Pats will probably rest most or all of their starters. If the game is close, many of the starters could end up playing most or all of the game. That presents a serious problem for the folks who are trying to figure out the betting line.

The Dolphins should have plenty of motivation with both Chad Henne and Tony Sparano likely playing for their jobs. They’ll also be out for revenge after the 41-14 beatdown New England handed them earlier this year. Miami’s last four games have been decided by a touchdown or less. It’s also important to keep in mind that New England is thin on the defensive line, and Miami would prefer to keep the ball on the ground. All of these factors add up to a game that could be closer than these teams’ records might suggest.

I think the Patriots will open as modest favorites of around -4 or -5. I would back the Patriots at -4, but anything higher than that would steer me toward Miami.

Other Lines I Like This Week

Rams (-2) at Seahawks

I’m loving this road dog like Rex Ryan loves feet. Wait, is that really the first Rex Ryan foot joke on Foxboro Blog? I think it is! Haha! Leave it to me to “toe the line,” right? OK, I’m done making fun of Rex now. I wouldn’t want someone to make fun of me if the shoe were on the other foot. Anyhow, the Seahawks are a much better home team, but it’s hard to trust a team that has been outscored 82-33 in their last two games and is down to their backup quarterback. St. Louis is 5-3 this season when facing a team with a QB that falls outside the top 20 in QB rating.

49ers (-6.5) vs. Cardinals

While the 49ers certainly still have QB issues to deal with, any option they will trot out there will be better than Arizona’s QB. I don’t get all of the praise being heaped on Skelton. In four games, he’s directed a total of just four TD drives against pliable defenses; a long TD pass on a completely blown coverage, a fake FG that resulted in a score and two runs against the league’s worst run defense. I think the betting public will be all over Arizona, but the betting public is usually wrong.

Chargers (-3.5) at Broncos

Tebow had a respectable showing in his first two starts, but he was facing a pair of defenses that have allowed opposing signal-callers to throw a combined total of 62 TDs this season. The Chargers have the league’s stingiest pass defense in terms of yards allowed, and they have allowed just 16 TDs with 14 INTs on the year. The Broncos defense can’t stop anyone, and the Chargers have one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. I think the Chargers will win here by double digits.

2010 Record ATS 19-16-1

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Only twice in the past ten seasons have the New England Patriots failed to capture the AFC East Division title.  However, I don't think that there's ever been a season where winning the division has felt so good.  For months, Patriots fans have heard how the Jets were Super Bowl contenders and how control of the division was about to change hands.  Well, after everyone had talked their talk, it was the Patriots who continued to walk the walk, their 34-3 thrashing of the Bills standing in stark contrast to the barn burner that the Jets ultimately lost at Soldier Field. 

The funny thing is, the Patriots could have dropped this game AND next week's game in Miami and still had the AFC East and home field throughout the playoffs locked up.  But even when they don't need to win, that internal hunger that drives this team continues to push them towards excellence.  That's why you see Tom Brady screaming about a dropped pass when his team is up by 28 points and he's just shattered all kinds of NFL records.  That's why you have defensive players hitting hard and scrapping for the ball, creating seven, SEVEN, turnovers.  That's why Bill Belichick will probably still chew some of his players out tomorrow for getting gashed by the run on Buffalo's opening drive, or for some stupid penalties that stalled out a few offensive drives in the second half.  It's a championship attitude, that will hopefully lead to more than just an AFC East Championship. 

Some quick hits...

*Since most fantasy football leagues have their championship game in Week 16, this will be the last edition of the Patriots Fantasy Football Forecast for 2010. Thanks for reading and good luck in the playoffs!

Tom Brady
The Bills are one of the league's most generous passing defenses, but they also give up a ton of yards on the ground. I think the Patriots will try to grind out a win with a balanced attack on offense, and that means a lot of Green-Ellis and Woodhead. Still, I could easily foresee Brady bouncing back from an "off" week last week with 280 yards and 2-3 scores.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch
The Pats' top two WRs were held to just 5 total catches last week, but I don't expect that to be the case this weekend. The Bills typically limit the yardage totals of opposing wideouts, but the New England WR corps is anything but typical. Look for both players to post similar statlines around 4-6 catches for 80-100 yards and a good chance of a score. I'd start either guy as a #2 WR with confidence.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead
Patriot running backs should bring a sleigh full of goodies on Christmas weekend against Buffalo's 32nd ranked defense. Both of these guys could crack the top 10 or 15 in running back scoring this week. I'm betting that both players will end up with 75+ yards and a score.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez
While Hernandez scored twice last week, Gronkowski is still getting the bulk of the playing time. The Bills allow the 7th-most fantasy points to tight ends, so I think either guy is worth a start. If you're deciding between both players, I'd still lean toward Gronkowski.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams
While the Buffalo offense is nothing to write home about, Fitzpatrick has been doing a decent job of getting the ball out of his hands quickly and limiting mistakes. In his last four games, he's taken just 7 sacks. Although he has fumbled four times during that span, I'm not sure that is a trend we can hang our hat on. This unit is no better than a fringe starting option this week.

After you are done opening your presents on Christmas Day, you'll get a chance to see the New England Patriots take the field against the Buffalo Bills with a lot on the line. Last weekend, the Patriots nearly ruined the Christmas cheer by needing a last second clock management mistake by backup Packers’ quarterback, Matt Flynn, to secure a 31-27 win. We told you guys last week that the game would be close, but we didn’t think Dan Connolly, of all people, would be the hero of the ballgame. Still, the defense is improving, and the Pats are 12-2 with two games remaining.

Here is the scenario: If the Patriots defeat the Bills on Sunday in Orchard Park or the Jets lose to Chicago in Soldier Field, New England would be the AFC East champions for the second straight year and the number 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Most importantly, the road to Dallas will go through chilly Gillette Stadium where Brady has won 26 of his last 27 games.  As an added bonus, New England will not have to play all their starters in the season finale on January 2^nd against Miami.

The Buffalo Bills, though, are no pushovers. Since starting the year 0-8, Chan Gailey’s team has won four of their last six, including a road win over the Miami Dolphins last week. Before the first matchup with New England, Gailey benched Trent Edwards at quarterback and started Ryan Fitzpatrick (Terrell Suggs’ Pro Bowl Pick). Fitzpatrick made the Bills offense multi-dimensional and kept Buffalo in the game on the road with a 38-30 loss.

The Bills have played some contenders tough this year, including the Steelers, Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs. A Rian Lindell made field goal or a Stevie Johnson catch in the endzone could make their season different than their current 4-10 record, but overall, the second half of this year has been a step in the right direction.

Here are your Holiday Keys to the game on Sunday:

1. Santa’s Running Reindeer: The main key for the Buffalo Bills is going to be to run the football and control the clock. When watching the game on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers were able to run the ball effectively with Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn. Why was that? Well, with the loss of Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, and Ron Brace, New England is hurting in terms of depth at the defensive line position, thus allowing wider gaps for the opposition’s running game.
   
   In Week three, the Bills had 134 yards on the ground, but the main contributor to thos yards, Marshawn Lynch, is now in Seattle. Look for Fred Jackson to be the number one back in this game. New England might not get all three guys back on that D-Line, so expect Jackson, who Belichick’s defense never seems to be able to stop, to have a 100 yard rushing game. Rookie C.J Spiller should also have an impact on special teams with his returning ability and he brings a nice change of pace with his speed over Jackson’s power. 
   
   The Pats also have BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, your equivalent of Dasher and Dancer. They ran for 140 yards between the two of them in Week 3. Expect the same this week against the league’s worst run defense.

1. Ever since starting 0-8, the Bills have won 4 of their last 6. What is the one main reason for the turnaround?

I think the Bills being able to find balance with their offensive attack is a major reason. During their 0-8 start, they came close several times in beating some decent teams like the Pats, Ravens and Chiefs. However, the team was just too reliant on the passing game. I remember after week six, the Bills ranked 24th in rushing attempts and Ryan Fitzpatrick was averaging over 40 throws a game. Now, as the weather has gotten colder, the team is handing the ball off more to Fred Jackson, which is taking less pressure of Fitz. Another reason is that the Bills defense, which after a horrible start to the year where they gave up 30  points or more in 5 straight games, has finally gelled. Over the last month, the defense has only given up an average of 16.5 points per game. This is mainly due to getting sacks from their outside linebackers, Chris Kelsay and Arthur Moats, and the emergence of Kyle Williams, who is their best defensive player. Also, the secondary has finally been able to get interceptions.

2. My friend is a Bills fan from NYC. He wanted to ask you if you think Ryan Fitzpatrick is the future QB long term or should the Bills look at Luck, Mallett, or Locker as the franchise quarterback? Any other major needs in the draft?

For the entire year, I've been preaching that I could live with Fitzpatrick being the QB in 2011. Beyond that? I wasn't so sure...until after this week against Miami. I think the Bills have a nice thing going with Fitz and have bigger, pressing issues on the defensive side of the ball (Mainly, the linebackers and defensive ends). Frankly, if the Bills decided to use all their draft picks on defensive players, I wouldn't have a problem with it. As for drafting a top tier QB? I'd be cool with it, as the player can learn behind Fitzpatrick for a year or two, but it wouldn't be my first choice.

And just like that, Jason has gone from dead last to first place!  For the first time this season, Rick has been overtaken for the lead in our little competition.  Jason has come on strong down the stretch, posting a 4-1 record last week.  However, Rick and I are only a single game back, so it's still anyone's game.  With Week 17 often posting some unpredictable results, there's no telling what these standings will look like next week.  For the moment, though, we can all take comfort that all three of us so-called "experts" are finally over the .500 mark. 

Without further ado, here are your Pick 'Em predictions for Week 17 from Foxboro Blog!

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick
JAX @ HOU
TEN @ IND
OAK @ KC
BUF @ NYJ
SD @ DEN
Last Week	3-2	4-1	3-2
Record	13-12	14-11	13-12

You couldn't write a better script for our Pick 'Em as we head into the final two weeks of the season.  For the past four weeks, Jason has been pulling up the rear, while Rickwas leading the pack.  Thanks to some surprising finishes last week, Jason managed to pull dead even for the lead with the Rickinator.  I, on the other hand, continued my streak of mediocrity, falling dead in the middle yet again.  However, since everyone is currently 10-10 on the year, that mediocrity is good enough for a share of first place as well.  

Without further ado, here are your Pick 'Em predictions for Week 16 from Foxboro Blog. Feel free to chime in with your own picks in the comments, and if you can maintain a better record than our crew, your picks will be featured in next seasons' weekly column.  (At this rate, you just have to go better than .500!  How hard is that?)

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick
IND @ OAK
NYJ @ CHI
SD @ CIN
TEN @ KC
BAL @ CLE
Last Week	2-3	3-2	1-4
Record	10-10	10-10	10-10

With eight of last week's twelve teams going head to head, the rankings were sure to get switched up this week.  And did they ever!  Not a single team stood firm, which I believe is the first time this year, and maybe the first time in Top 12 history.  (You'll have to pardon me for not looking the data up.)  This week should be a bit calmer with only Falcons/Saints and Jets/Bears on tap. 

The big riser this week includes last week's big faller, the Bears.  Chicago bounced back big from their awful loss to New England and share a three position rise with San Diego, who crushed the Niners last Thursday.   Technically the big faller is the Steelers, dropping four spots.  But in reality, the Giants should really hold that title as they went from #7 last week to off the board after their epic collapse against the Eagles.

Patriots Open as 8-Point Favorites in Buffalo

The Patriots opened at -8 in their Week 16 matchup in Buffalo against the Bills.

The Pats squeaked out a hard-earned win last week in a game that everyone not named Derek Hanson thought would be a blowout (to be fair, Derek Hanson is a pretty common name, so there may have been a few guys named Derek Hanson who also thought this game would be a blowout). It wasn’t pretty, but it still counts as a win. Watching the game was like having a buddy set you up on a date with a famous and beautiful musician, and it ends up being the girl that sings the Christmas carols in those Hyundai commercials. Not exactly what you were expecting, but the result doesn’t make you throw up in your mouth.

If there is any consolation from last week’s sloppy win, it’s the fact that gamblers will get a better line on the Patriots against the Bills this week. (as an aside, how spoiled have we become that people like me actually find themselves complaining about the margin of victory over other playoff contenders? I may be in danger of becoming just as bad as a common Colts fan *shudder*) The Pats won by 8 when these two teams met in Week 3. However, that was back in the day when the Patriots were still throwing deep to Randy Moss every third play. If memory serves, they were playing with leather helmets, Steve Grogan was our QB and Coach Belichick may have been struggling to invent the wheel. You get my drift.

The offense should have no trouble putting points on the board again this week. Only eight teams have given up more passing TDs than the Bills this season, and they are last in the league against the run. The Pats have put up 30+ points in six straight games, and it would be a major surprise if they didn’t add to that streak against the Bills. The Buffalo offense has failed to reach 20 points in seven of their last eight games. While the Bills have given the Pats a few scares over the years, New England has still beaten Buffalo in each of their last 14 meetings. The Patriots will be playing to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs; the Bills will be playing for the right to avoid a higher draft pick. I like New England’s motivation a bit more.

The over/under for this game is set at 44, which seems more than a bit low considering these two teams put up a combined total of 68 in the first meeting. Neither of these defenses are elite, so I’d be a bit surprised if they didn’t cover this number in the third quarter.

I would back the Patriots to cover the spread, and if the weather in Buffalo doesn’t look too hairy, I’d dive on the over like Miley Cyrus on a salvia bong.

Other Lines I Like This Week

Ravens (-3) at Browns

I really don’t think I have a love affair with home dogs. Honest. The Browns played the Ravens tough when these two teams met in Week 3, but they have not played a great game since beating New England. Consecutive losses to 2-win teams (Cincy and Buffalo) have this team on a downswing. Baltimore has a lot more to play for in this game.

Chiefs (-5) vs. Titans

On average, Tennessee’s opponents have an 8-minute edge in time of possession edge, easily the largest disparity in the league. At the risk of sounding like John Madden, it’s hard to score if you don’t have the ball. KC plays tough at home, and I expect Thomas Jones, Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel to play an effective game of keep-away on Sunday.

2010 Record ATS 16-15-1

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