With the New England Patriots on a bye this week before their matchup next Sunday night (4:30 EST, CBS), this preview will focus on the other four matchups being played this weekend. Let’s start with the Saturday games:

 

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Saints at Seahawks (4:30 EST, NBC): Everyone thinks this game is going to be a blowout and rightfully so. The Seattle Seahawks come into this game as the NFC West champions, but with the worst record of a division winner in NFL history. In order for Seattle to have a chance in this game, Matt Hasselbeck has to get the start. In a 34-19 loss to the Saints in Week 12, Hasselbeck threw for 366 yards and one touchdown. He has been to a Super Bowl, while Charlie Whitehurst has not started many regular season games, much less a playoff game.

The key in this game is going to be in the running game. For Seattle, they have a decent running back in Marshawn Lynch that can take some pressure off of the passing game and keep Drew Brees on the sideline. The running game was atrocious in the first meeting, so Seattle needs to run and control the clock.

As for the Saints, they need to find some resemblance of a running game, because they don’t have many healthy running backs left. Christopher Ivory and Pierre Thomas are now on injured reserve, so Reggie Bush and Julius Jones will need to provide some sort of balance to help Drew Brees avoid pressure. Seattle is 13^th in sacks in the NFL and did get after Sam Bradford at times on Sunday.

Prediction: Seahawks hang around for a half, but Drew Brees is too much for Seattle. Saints 31 Seahawks 13

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With the regular season coming to and end, our three Foxboro Blog contributors are all separated 1st, 2nd, 3rd by a single game.  Of course, yours truly is sitting dead last.

Interestingly enough, Jason and Rick made an identical set of picks, so Jason is assured that he'll remain in no worse than 2nd place regardless of the outcomes this weekend. 

I on the other hand, am trailing by two games and need to make a move.   I could have played it safe an gone with the "conventional" logic displayed by my two colleagues.  I think if you took a poll on each game, over 50% of the reponses would side with Rick and Jason's picks.   However, when was the last time NFL Wild Card weekend went according to plan?  Somebody is going to surprise us.  I'm pretty sure it won't be Seattle.  The Chiefs?  Maybe.  However, I think everyone is riding a little too high on Green Bay right now, and a little too low on the Jets.  This week is either going to save me, or stick a fork in me.

Without further ado, here are your Pick 'Em predictions for Wild Card Weekend from Foxboro Blog!

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick
NYJ @ IND
BAL @ KC
GB @ PHI
NO @ SEA
Last Week	2-3	3-2	3-2
Record	15-15	17-13	16-14

 

 

With Week 17 bringing us a slate of tanking teams or resting starters, there wasn't much activity in the Top 12 this week.  Six of last week's twelve teams held firm. 

The big riser was the Jets, who went up a whopping two slots, while the Chiefs were the big fallers, dropping two as well. 

Eleven of the twelve playoff teams were represented on the rankings this week, with 7-9 Seattle being the only ones not on the list.  The Seahawks, by the way, haven't cracked the Top 12 all year. 

The top seeds in the AFC and NFC hold the rankings top two slots.  Interestinly enough, the #2 seeds are ranked sixth and seventh.

Interestingly enough, each of the lower seeded road teams in this weekend's four games are ranked higher in the Top 12 than their opponents.   The tightest is the #8 Jets at the #9 Colts.  Green Bay holds a five spot advantage over Philly, Baltimore is ranked seven spots higher than Kansas City, and the Saints come in at #3 with the Seahawks not even on the board.

Foxboro Blog columnist, Ricky Keeler was on The Sports Marauder's today breaking down the NFL playoffs.  Rick does a great job dissecting every Patriots game with his weekly previews on our site.  Now you can listen to him as he gives his insights on all the teams competing in the Wild Card round this weekend.   Check it out!

The first partial season of Opening Lines resulted in a respectable 22-17-1 record against the spread. Not only is that above .500, but it’s good enough to beat the juice (unless you bet illegally and your bookie is robbing you blind, in which case you need to find a better bookie). To put that overwhelming achievement in perspective, if you bet $10 per game with a 10 percent take, you would have pocketed a cool $33 on the year by following my exact picks all year. Don’t spend it all in one place, kiddos.

Since the Patriots will be enjoying a week off, this week’s edition of Opening Lines will take a closer look at this week’s Wild Card games. Sports betting usually grows in popularity when the playoffs roll around (I suspect this process is driven by Bills fans who desperately want to share the thrill of rooting for a winning team with fans of teams that are actually good enough to make the playoffs). However, the spike in popularity around playoff betting typically plays right into bookmakers’ hands. The profit-making doormats are long gone (well, besides the Seahawks), and there is often very little separating the teams on the field. The games are often tougher to pick, and profits for sharp bettors are squeezed. Those who are placing wagers this week do so at their own risk.

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While the Patriots victory today could hardly be called a "huge" win, seeing as the outcome of the game was completely meaningless standings-wise, I do think that the team's 38-7 drubbing of Miami did make a big statement.  It doesn't require a great memory to remember Week 17 of last season.  The Patriots failed to win yet another game on the road against Houston and lost Wes Welker to an ACL injury.  The team finished the season looking like a mess and quickly found themselves down 24-0 against Baltimore at the end of the first quarter in their Wild Card game.  Hopefully the night and day difference between Week 17 in 2009 and Week 17 in 2010, will parallel the way the '09 and '10 playoffs go for the Patriots. 

While a loss certainly would have been understandable and not necessarily problematic for New England's post-season chances, I think the fact that the Patriots won this game, and won it in such convincing fashion, speaks volumes about where this team is both mentally and physically.   You didn't have to look far this afternoon to see other AFC playoff teams struggling to compete with lackluster opponents.  KC lost badly at home to the Raiders.  The Colts required a late fumble to pick up the win at home against Tennessee.  The Ravens were a mere two yards away from surrendering the game-winning touchdown to the Bengals.  The Patriots, on the other hand, put up their second largest margin of victory this season without Branch, Welker, or Hernandez in the receiving game, and with Brian Hoyer taking a significant amount of Tom Brady's snaps.  Their performance was a testament to the soundness of Belichick's scheme and the depth that the Patriots are fortunate enough to have throughout their roster.  It simply didn't matter that the Patriots were playing  with a hand tied behind their back.  They have such good fighting instincts and pack enough punch with their other fist, that the Dolphins simply had no chance. 

Some quick hits...

Well, the New England Patriots achieved all the regular season goals they set out to accomplish coming into the season. With their 34-3 demolishing of the Buffalo Bills, the road to Dallas and Super Bowl 45 on the AFC side now goes through Foxboro. This Sunday, the Patriots will play the final game of the regular season against the 7-9 Miami Dolphins. Even though this game means nothing for the postseason, we all know Bill Belichick’s history of playing his starters for long periods of time during the final game of the season. Some memories we want to remember (2007 at Giants) and some we might want to forget (Last year at Texans).

This year, Miami will come into Foxboro as demoralized as can be afterblowing a ten point lead in the 4^th quarter and losing to the Detroit Lions at home last week. Ever since New England’s historic special teams performance against the Dolphins in Week 4, Miami has only won five games. Chad Henne has had a disastrous December, including a game where he had just five completions in a win over the Jets a few weeks ago. Also, head coach Tony Sparano could very well lose his job after the game.

Here are my keys to the game:

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1. How would you grade the Miami Dolphins' season coming into the final game of the year?

If we're talking record alone, this season has been a complete failure. At the very least, fans expected the Dolphins to win around ten games and sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. But to dish out the money they did in the off-season to acquire Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby and only be on the verge of matching their 09' win total of seven, is about as disappointing as it gets. If I'm looking at things from a future perspective, though, I wouldn't give the year an F, simply because the Dolphins have answered some major questions on the defensive side of the ball and could hold down elite status for years to come. They have become dominate against the run with arguably one of the best defensive lines in football, and without a doubt one of the deepest, and the secondary has come together nicely with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith making huge strides in their second season. I don't really even need to mention the role Cameron Wake has had who leads the league in sacks and has been a force to be reckoned with against the run as well. But when evaluating this year as a whole, the disappointing record, disastrous special-teams play, abysmal offense, and perhaps the biggest disappointment of all, Chad Henne turning out to not be the answer at quarterback, pretty much sum up a D or D- season.


2. Why do you think Miami is 6-1 on the road, but 1-7 in their own stadium?

This baffles me just as much as everybody else. At the beginning of the year, I simply chalked up a tougher home schedule to why the Dolphins were struggling so much in South Florida. But the latest three home losses to the Browns, Bills, and Lions obviously mean there is something desperately wrong with the Dolphins' mentality when they play in the supposedly friendly combines of Sun Life Stadium. At the end of the day, that could lead to Tony Sparano losing his job.

Week 17 in the NFL is always a difficult thing to figure out.  Which teams will play hard and which will rest?  With that in mind, this Week 16 version of the rankings could very well be the most accurate we'll have heading into the playoffs.  For the first time in a long time we have some turmoil at the top, with some shifting of the first four places.  Some teams appear to be peaking at just the right time, while others are in turmoil. 

The big riser this week is the Kansas City Chiefs, who swoop up three spots after putting together some dominating high-pressure wins.  The playoffs essentially started two weeks ago for KC and they've handled the situation admirably.  The big faller is also from the AFC West.  The San Diego Chargers' roller coaster through the Top 12 continues as one week they look like contenders and complete failures the next.  They drop six spots following their big loss to drop them out of the playoffs.