1. When you heard Rex's comments about Tom Brady over the past couple of days, what did you make of them? Has Rex's presence in the Jets locker room as head coach in the last couple of seasons change this to one of the best > rivalries in the NFL?

I didn't take much from Rex's comments. That's what he does. Had he been tight-lipped and giving monotone answers like Belichick then I would have been concerned. Plus, I think he was speaking the truth. No quarterback prepares like Peyton Manning does. That's not a knock on Brady as much as it is a tip of the hat to Manning.

Rex has elevated it even more but the rivalry really intensified when Mangini snitched on Belichick with Spygate. In my mind that is what sparked the growth of the rivalry. Rex has definitely kept the momentum going forward but Mangini is the founder of it, in my mind.


2. If you are Brian Schottenheimer, do you take the training wheels off of > Sanchez to get a win or is it ground and pound all the way?

Ground and pound all the way. I think Sanchez is capable of winning the game himself as he has shown throughout the season, but this week has to be about Shonn Greene. I'm still not a huge LT supporter but he came up big last week. Greene can take over a game though. If I had to list five players that can win the game for the Jets on Sunday, Greene would top the list.

As we waited to find out who the Patriots would draw in the Divisional Round, the three of us at Foxboro Blog decided to have a little "round table" discussion to look back at some of the more memorable moments in 2010.  Up next is the topic of the biggest story from the season.

Jason:  The biggest storyline has to be Brady, Brady and more Brady. From the Justin Bieber haircut and the Ugg sponsorship in the early season, to the record-breaking streak without an INT and MVP-caliber play throughout the second half of the season, he has kept everyone talking all year. I don't hear too many people talking about his hair anymore (maybe it's the beard?). I, for one, am convinced that Brady is actually the reincarnation of Samson. His hair is the source of his strength. We can only hope Gisele does not go all Delilah on him and cut it in his sleep prior to the Super Bowl. That's right guys, Bible references. See, we're not all pop culture and Rex Ryan feet jokes around here. And I don't even think we crossed the line into blasphemy. That's a win.

Well, it looks like yours truly was absolutely right about Wild Card weekend being anything but predictable.  While my two colleagues played it safe and went with the "consensus" four picks, I decided to march to the beat of my own drum.  Part of it was out of necessity.  (I'm down two games with the clock ticking!) But part of it was also due to the fact that I would have bet the house that at least one of those four fan favorites was going to be upset. 

So I was right about the upsets.  Unfortunately, it did nothing to improve my placement in the standings.  You see, it wasn't Michael Vick and the Eagles knocking off everyone's over-hyped 6th seed Packers, but rather the Seahawks stunning the defending champions.  The points I gained guessing the Jets victory were washed away by David Akers' two shanked field goals.  Everybody finished 2-2 and I'm still two games behind with only seven games remaining on the schedule. 

Making my dillemma even more severe is that the Patriots play this week, thereby limiting my ability to make a move to three games.  (None of us are picking the Jets).  Thankfully, Rick and Jason decided to pick identically yet again, which leaves the door open just a crack for me. (And just so you know, I made my picks before both of them, so I'm not just going against the grain in an attempt to make up points.)  Both of these two are riding the hype train big-time.  Look at those picks!   They're really not backing the 13-3 Falcons at home?!?!?  Something tells me that their car is about to get de-railed!

Onto the picks...

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick
NYJ @ NE
BAL @ PIT
GB @ ATL
SEA @ CHI
Last Week	2-2	2-2	2-2
Record	17-17	19-15	18-16

 

The Patriots opened as 8.5-point favorites for their Divisional Round playoff game Sunday against the New York Jets. The last time these two teams met, the Jets tried to put their blowout loss behind them by burying the game ball. This time, Patriots fans are hopeful that Rex Ryan and Company will need to dig a deeper hole.

Forty-five to three. 45-3. Patriots 45, Jets 3. Patriots fans could write poetry about that fateful night just six weeks ago. In fact, I tried to do a little haiku of my own, but my wife (an award-winning poet in her own right) forbade me from sullying the family name here for all the world to see. She probably has a point.

This game will not be as lopsided as the Week 13 blowout. The Jets seem to have realized in recent weeks that they can’t put the game on Mark Sanchez’s shoulders, as he has thrown 6 interceptions with just 2 touchdowns in his last 5 starts. Those numbers aren’t just bad; they’re Chad Henne-esque. The Jets ran the ball 37 times against an accommodating Colts defense and dominated time of possession last week, and that figures to be their best chance against the Patriots as well. The only way they can win is by keeping Brady on the sideline.

The outcome of this game is going to rely heavily on New York’s ability to run the ball and keep Sanchez out of unmanageable situations. If the Jets can keep their down and distance manageable and convert on third down, they can keep it close. They did both of those things in their Week 2 win over New England and won by two scores, but they didn’t do either of those things in Week 13 and lost by a unit of measurement that may not have been discovered by modern science.

In games between two playoff-caliber division rivals that feature a large spread, the smart money often lies in taking the points. This game should be close enough to be decided by a score or less. I’ll take the Jets at +8.5, but I’m still confident that Bill Belichick will be greeting Rex Ryan at midfield with a game ball and a shovel.

What about the other games this weekend?

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As we waited to find out who the Patriots would draw in the Divisional Round, the three of us at Foxboro Blog decided to have a little "round table" discussion to look back at some of the more memorable moments in 2010.  Up next is the topic of our favorite moment from the season.

Rick: There have been a ton of great moments for the Patriots this season. But, I have a personal favorite and that came in Week 13 on Monday Night Football. That game was for the AFC East title with the 9-2 New York Jets against the 9-2 New England Patriots. Everybody thought it was the Jets' time to win the division and that the Patriots' defense could not stop anybody. Well, both the offense and the defense stepped up and won the game 45-3 to make a statement that this Patriots' team is for real. I am a New Yorker so it felt good to see the Jets' fans go a little bit down to earth after their string of last second wins against sub .500 teams. Danny Woodhead, the ex-Jet, had one of his best games of the year while Belichick even with the Patriots up 31-3 telling his team not to take the foot off the gas pedal. It felt like 2007 all over again.

Jason: Without question, my favorite part of the season was the Week 9 win over the Steelers. I grew up in Western PA and still live on the outskirts of Steeler Country, and most of my family is made up of Steeler fans. The Steelers-Pats game was two weeks before Thanksgiving, and I'm pretty sure that if the Pats would've lost, I wouldn't have been able to go home for the holidays. For me, this win meant getting to eat turkey at the Thanksgiving table instead of a healthy helping of crow. In the bigger picture, I think the win over the Steelers really put the rest of the league on notice that this Patriots team is for real. They were coming off a terrible loss to the Browns, and a loss would've left the team on the fringe of the playoff race with Indy coming to town. Instead, the Pats were able to put together a dominating win on the road against a quality opponent, a victory that put them in the driver's seat in the AFC and started a run of eight straight wins to close the regular season. The emphatic spike by Brady after his 4th quarter rushing score was an exclamation point on one of the Patriots' signature wins of the 2010 regular season. I could watch that celebration on an endless loop.

Derek: The thing that I've loved the most about following the Patriots during the Brady/Belichick era is all the nail-biting games that got my blood pumping and the euphoria that came after the Pats pulled off their improbable victory.  With that in mind, only one game this season truly fit that description, and it was Week 6 against Baltimore.  This was the Patriots' first game with Deion Branch and without Randy Moss.  They were facing the team that had steamrolled them last January in the only home playoff loss at Gillette Stadium and of Tom Brady's career.  The Patriots, down 10 points in the 4th quarter, and looking fairly out of sync for the majority of the game, finally found their rhythm.  They forced overtime, and then, in what seemed an eternity of punting the ball back and forth, clinched the victory with only minutes remaining in the extra period.  This was the game where I stopped thinking we were a good but flawed team, and started thinking "Super Bowl".  Say what you will about knocking off the Jets, Steelers, Colts, Packers, and Bears.  I believe Baltimore is the best team the Patriots have beaten all season, and they did it in the most dramatic way possible.  Just a vintage Patriots win!

As we waited to find out who the Patriots would draw in the Divisional Round, the three of us at Foxboro Blog decided to have a little "round table" discussion to look back at some of the more memorable moments in 2010.  Up first is the topic of the season's "biggest surprise".

Rick:  On the offensive side of the ball, I am going to go with Danny Woodhead. The reason I use Woodhead is because being in New York, I got the chance to watch this kid whether it be on Hard Knocks or in Jets' preseason games and I wondered when would this kid get a chance. It turns out he had to go from a secret giver to a guy who had to step in for one of the best Patriots' running backs ever in Kevin Faulk, particularly on third downs. Woodhead has been vital both in the run game and on the receiving ends on third downs because he always fought for that extra yard to keep a drive alive. For example, you can look at the game against the Vikings when Woodhead got a huge first down with the team up 21-18 in the 4th quarter.

Jason: My biggest surprise on offense would have to be Deion Branch. When the Patriots brought him back into the fold after trading away Randy Moss, the move was met with a collective shrug across the league. All he's done since coming back is post a 48-700-5 line in 11 games and be arguably Brady's most reliable option in the passing game. It's hard to envision the team being 14-2 without him.

Derek:  I'd have to say that the biggest surprise this season is Tom Brady.  Yeah, we all knew that he was a great quarterback, but this great?  After losing the 2008 season due to injury and a 2009 that was lackluster by his standard, I don't think anyone saw his performance this season coming.  In many respects, 2010 has been even better than his legendary 2007 effort.  What's even more mind-boggling is that through the first four games, the Patriots weren't looking so hot.  They beat Cincinnati, but then lost to the Jets, struggled in a win over Buffalo, and looked pretty anemic in the first half against Miami before the special teams fireworks went off.  So you have a team that is looking a little shaky, and then you take away the quarterback's #1 target.  Seems like a recipe for disaster, right?  Not for Tom Brady.  He only leads his team to an 11-1 record the rest of the way, while putting up numbers, the likes of which this league has never seen.  Pretty surprising!

The Patriots may be the AFC's #1 seed heading into the 2010 NFL Playoffs, but that doesn't mean they should be booking flights to Dallas this February.   The "experts" make it seem like New England is invincible and that Tom Brady will be mowing down his opponents like Rambo on a killing spree.  The truth is that the Patriots are one errant pass, one botched kick, or one missed tackle away from having their entire season go up in smoke.  You don't get second chances in the playoffs.  You have sixty minutes to outlast your opponent, and if you fail to do so, you end up going home.

If you have any doubts, rewind the tape back three years to the last time that the Patriots looked this "unstoppable".   If Vince Wilfork doesn't trip and botch a tackle, the Patriots win the Super Bowl.  If Asante Samuel doesn't let an interception whiff through his hands, the Patriots win the Super Bowl.   If Rodney Harrision prevents David Tyree from pinning the ball against his helmet, the Patriots win the Super Bowl.  All were small mistakes, and if any one of those things doesn't happen, then history is re-written.  It doesn't matter how good you've been in the past.  When the playoffs begin, you're one play away from the house of cards collapsing around you.

The past sixteen games have simply been a tune-up to get ready for the real action that will take place over the next three weekends.  The Patriots are fortunate enough to bypass the Wild Card Round and be hosting a game next week, but other than that, they have earned nothing and deserve nothing more.  With that in mind, it's time to sift through the fantasy that the Patriots are "destined" for Super Bowl XLV, and focus on the reality that there are five other very good teams that are looking to hit New England with a knock out punch.  The Pats could come across any of these five teams either next week or in the AFC title game, should they make it that far.  They all pose a significant threat and none should be taken lightly, but in the spirit of making things interesting, I'll be ranking each of the AFC playoff contenders based on their "threat level" of eliminating the Patriots.  Fresh from the Foxboro Department of Homeland Security is the New England Patriots' playoff risk assessment...


THREAT LEVEL: LOW
Reasons to Worry:  If you look at Bill Belichick's track record, the teams that give him the most problems are the teams coached by his former disciples.  Eric Mangini has now been fired as a head coach by two different organizations, but he's notched a couple of victories over Belichick both with the Jets and Browns.  Josh McDaniels managed to pull out the W in his lone meeting with Belichick last season as well.  This trend should give Patriots fans pause, considering that KC has not one, but two coordinators who know Belichick like the back of their hand in Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennell.  The Chiefs might be the weakest AFC playoff team on paper, but they have more talent than Mangini's Browns.  None of us has forgotten how the Cleveland game turned out yet.

Reasons Not to Worry:  If you look at Belichick's track record against former marquee players, however, the mastermind tends to have the upper hand.  Belichick went 5-1 against Drew Bledsoe after trading him to Buffalo, and we saw how he handled Randy Moss earlier this year when he returned with the Vikings.  Chances are, the Genius would have a pretty good day matching wits with former-pupil Matt Cassel and his minimal playoff experience.   Also, not to take anything away from the AFC West Champion Chiefs, but they notched their 10-6 record playing against the NFL's JV teams.  They beat exactly one team that finished with a record above .500 and that was the 9-7 San Diego Chargers, seventeen weeks ago on Opening Night.   "On any given Sunday" still rings true, but I do think the 14-2 Patriots represent a tall order for the Chiefs.

With the New England Patriots on a bye this week before their matchup next Sunday night (4:30 EST, CBS), this preview will focus on the other four matchups being played this weekend. Let’s start with the Saturday games:

 

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Saints at Seahawks (4:30 EST, NBC): Everyone thinks this game is going to be a blowout and rightfully so. The Seattle Seahawks come into this game as the NFC West champions, but with the worst record of a division winner in NFL history. In order for Seattle to have a chance in this game, Matt Hasselbeck has to get the start. In a 34-19 loss to the Saints in Week 12, Hasselbeck threw for 366 yards and one touchdown. He has been to a Super Bowl, while Charlie Whitehurst has not started many regular season games, much less a playoff game.

The key in this game is going to be in the running game. For Seattle, they have a decent running back in Marshawn Lynch that can take some pressure off of the passing game and keep Drew Brees on the sideline. The running game was atrocious in the first meeting, so Seattle needs to run and control the clock.

As for the Saints, they need to find some resemblance of a running game, because they don’t have many healthy running backs left. Christopher Ivory and Pierre Thomas are now on injured reserve, so Reggie Bush and Julius Jones will need to provide some sort of balance to help Drew Brees avoid pressure. Seattle is 13^th in sacks in the NFL and did get after Sam Bradford at times on Sunday.

Prediction: Seahawks hang around for a half, but Drew Brees is too much for Seattle. Saints 31 Seahawks 13

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With the regular season coming to and end, our three Foxboro Blog contributors are all separated 1st, 2nd, 3rd by a single game.  Of course, yours truly is sitting dead last.

Interestingly enough, Jason and Rick made an identical set of picks, so Jason is assured that he'll remain in no worse than 2nd place regardless of the outcomes this weekend. 

I on the other hand, am trailing by two games and need to make a move.   I could have played it safe an gone with the "conventional" logic displayed by my two colleagues.  I think if you took a poll on each game, over 50% of the reponses would side with Rick and Jason's picks.   However, when was the last time NFL Wild Card weekend went according to plan?  Somebody is going to surprise us.  I'm pretty sure it won't be Seattle.  The Chiefs?  Maybe.  However, I think everyone is riding a little too high on Green Bay right now, and a little too low on the Jets.  This week is either going to save me, or stick a fork in me.

Without further ado, here are your Pick 'Em predictions for Wild Card Weekend from Foxboro Blog!

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick
NYJ @ IND
BAL @ KC
GB @ PHI
NO @ SEA
Last Week	2-3	3-2	3-2
Record	15-15	17-13	16-14