A few quick notes before I get into this week’s games:

• I really, really hate the Jets.
• While I didn’t have much to cheer about this weekend, I could at least take solace in the fact that my 3-1 record against the spread guarantees a winning record of picking games in this space for the 2010-11 season. That was a small personal comfort on an otherwise dreary weekend.
• I hope the groundskeepers at Foxboro make the turf extra-springy next year so if Braylon Edwards tries another a backflip on our homefield, he over-rotates and lands on his head. But I’m really not bitter or anything.
• Even if I drop both Championship Games and the Super Bowl in this space, I’d finish at 27-23-1 on the year. That’s not only a winning record, but also good enough to beat the juice. If I were a betting man, I’d be playing with house money right now.
• If I can win the three remaining games, I’d finish with a .600 winning percentage on the year, which is better than more than a few “professional” handicapping services. Having said that, I probably just doomed myself to a spectacular failure in the last two weeks. But if I can make it happen, I may put some online handicappers (who sell their "services" to the public) out of business. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
• That last point made me sound like a bit slutty. I think it's time to make some picks.

Steelers (-3) vs. Jets

While my personal distaste for the Steelers is well-documented, I like them to cover the spread and win big this week at home. Besides the New England game in Week 13, all four of the Jets’ other losses this year followed a similar theme – they were playing against a team with a very good front 7 (Baltimore, Green Bay, Miami and Chicago) who shut down the running game. The Jets thrive when they are able to run the ball and take the pressure off Sanchez. They were able to do that last week against New England and the week before against Indy because they dominated the line of scrimmage. Generally speaking, if the Jets can run the ball, they can win. If they can’t, they’re sunk.

It's hard to believe the Patriots' 2010 run is over.  After looking so good for so long, the season came to a grinding halt.  Making matters even worse is that they lost to the their hated rival, the Jets, and opened the door for a solid eight straight months of smack talk regardless of whether the Jets win the Super Bowl or get ousted next week.  Then again, I doubt Rex Ryan and the Jets would have shut up even if the Patriots had won 45-3 again.  I've got a lot to get off my chest, so I'm just going to move forward with it.  I had kept pretty quiet all week, mostly due to a busy schedule, so there's a lot to cover. 

We'll start with my thoughts on the game.

• I had feared for weeks that Tom Brady's interceptionless streak would be broken at the worst possible time.  Even though the Jets didn't get any points off the 1st quarter Brady pick, it did appear to be a potential game-changer.  The INT definitely killed what would have almost certainly been a New England scoring drive.  The key for the Patriots was to get points on the board early and force Sanchez to try to play catch-up.  It was just an awful throw by Brady.  There was still a lot of football to be played afterwards, but that pick was certainly very costly.
• On a similar note, the drop by Algie Crumpler in the end zone on the next drive was also very costly.  If Brady doesn't throw that pick and Algie catches that ball, you're looking at a 10-0 or 14-0 lead.  Don't tell me that a lead like that wouldn't have ruffled the Jets game plan.  (Although props to Algie for hustling and making the tackle on the Brady pick to save the TD.)
  
  
• The fake punt towards the end of the first half might have been the dumbest play call I've ever seen by this team.  Apparently, Pat Chung has the green light to call fake punts when he sees a favorable formation from the defense.  Favorable or not though, it's just not a smart call in a four point game with barely any time left in the half.  A 7-3 deficit at half time is nothing to worry about, especially when you're getting the ball to start the 3rd quarter.  There was no need to risk giving the Jets favorable field position, which they then used to push the lead to 14-3 and really put the pressure on.  I'm at least glad to hear that it was Pat Chung who called the play and not Belichick, or I'd really have to question our coach's judgement.  Whether a criticial decision should be left up to a 2nd year player is another story, but at least it wasn't Belichick making a dumb call.
  
  
• The Patriots managed to recover them, but the two fumbles they had would have really killed them if the Jets had pounced on them.   The Patriots were very fortunate that this was just a one-turnover game.  Over all, their ball security was very out of character.  For a team that's 82-3 in the past decade when winning the turnover battle and shattered the record for fewest turnovers in a season this year, it was very disappointing.
  
  
• The biggest game-changing play came early in the 4th quarter.  The Pats had clawed their way to a touchdown, hit on the two-point conversion and appeard to have the momentum shifted back their way.   Then Sanchez nailed Jericho Cotchery for a 58 yard gain, which was the key to a 5-play, 75-yard touchdown drive.  Overall, the Jets didn't do a whole lot to move the ball down the field.  Their other three touchdown drives were 49, 37, and 20 yards, respectively.  That early 4th quarter drive was the one point where this Patriots defense caved and allowed the Jets to pull off a long scoring drive.  After that, the clock became the Patriots' enemy.
  
  
• Still, down ten points, with over 10 minutes to play, the Patriots were far from finished.  What did kill them was a late-game drive lasting 7:45 where they walked away with no points.   I don't know what was going on here, but apparently the Patriots decided to take a page from the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, and show absolutely no urgency while trailing by a two-possession deficit.  With the amount of time that they took, even a touch down would have made things tight time-wise.  It was just awful clock-management from a team that so often excels in that area.
  
  
• Deion Branch dropping that 4th and 13 ball...   Just killer.  This was the only game of the season where I missed Randy Moss.  The Patriots just weren't explosive at all tonight. 
  
  
• The Pats were essentially going "all-in" on that first onside kick.  If they didn't recover it, they would have to burn their timeouts and really make a long march down the field, which they had showed no ability to do.  Cromartie ended up recovering and set-up another touchdown with his long return.  I know it's 20/20 hindsight at this point, and if the Pats recover, which they almost did, we might have seen over time, but I think the safter play would have been a deep kick, pinning the Jets, and getting decent field position to move towards a final score.  The Patriots, after all, did end up tacking on a TD with a late drive there in the final moments. 
  
  
• Overall, a turnover, dropped balls, that dumb fake punt, and poor clock management killed this team.  Very, very un-Patriot-like.  

 

The following article was featured on SeatGeek.com, one of the Internet's leading ticket search engines.

The Patriots will face the Jets on Sunday for the third time this year. Here is what the Patriots will need to do to earn the W and move on to the AFC Championship Game:

1)  Stop the run

If the Jets beat the Patriots, it certainly won’t be because they got shredded by Mark Sanchez. In New England’s Week 2 loss to the Jets, Tomlinson and Greene combined for 128 yards on the ground and averaged nearly five yards per carry. In the 45-3 drubbing the Patriots handed the Jets in Week 13, Tomlinson and Greene were non-factors. The best chance for the Jets to win is playing a simple game of playground keep-away from Brady and the offense, so they will need their running backs to move the chains and keep the clock moving. If the Patriots can keep New York’s running game in check, they win this game.

After sitting out watching Wild Card Weekend, the Patriots now know their AFC Divisional Playoff matchup on Sunday will be against the New York Jets. The trash talk has been more prevalent in this matchup than in either of the previous two contests this year. Whether it is Rex Ryan criticizing Tom Brady for seeing a Broadway play or Antonio Cromartie saying how he truly feels about Brady, this game is New York’s Super Bowl. All the finger pointing and trash talking will have a result come Sunday when one team advances to the AFC Championship Game and gets the last laugh.

The Jets are coming off of a 17-16 win over Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts where they needed a last second field goal from Nick Folk to advance. In the second half, NY went back to the ground and pound offense and ran all over the Colts with LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, while taking pressure off of their young quarterback Mark Sanchez. Now, Sanchez heads to an environment where he has struggled in his career. In his two games at Gillette Stadium, Mark Sanchez has one touchdown and seven interceptions.

What’s At Stake:

NY Jets: 2^nd straight AFC Championship appearance. First win in Foxboro since 2008 when Brett Favre was quarterback.

New England: 6^th AFC title game appearance in the last 10 years!

Let’s take a look at some keys that will decide the winner on Sunday:

no comments

1. When you heard Rex's comments about Tom Brady over the past couple of days, what did you make of them? Has Rex's presence in the Jets locker room as head coach in the last couple of seasons change this to one of the best > rivalries in the NFL?

I didn't take much from Rex's comments. That's what he does. Had he been tight-lipped and giving monotone answers like Belichick then I would have been concerned. Plus, I think he was speaking the truth. No quarterback prepares like Peyton Manning does. That's not a knock on Brady as much as it is a tip of the hat to Manning.

Rex has elevated it even more but the rivalry really intensified when Mangini snitched on Belichick with Spygate. In my mind that is what sparked the growth of the rivalry. Rex has definitely kept the momentum going forward but Mangini is the founder of it, in my mind.


2. If you are Brian Schottenheimer, do you take the training wheels off of > Sanchez to get a win or is it ground and pound all the way?

Ground and pound all the way. I think Sanchez is capable of winning the game himself as he has shown throughout the season, but this week has to be about Shonn Greene. I'm still not a huge LT supporter but he came up big last week. Greene can take over a game though. If I had to list five players that can win the game for the Jets on Sunday, Greene would top the list.

As we waited to find out who the Patriots would draw in the Divisional Round, the three of us at Foxboro Blog decided to have a little "round table" discussion to look back at some of the more memorable moments in 2010.  Up next is the topic of the biggest story from the season.

Jason:  The biggest storyline has to be Brady, Brady and more Brady. From the Justin Bieber haircut and the Ugg sponsorship in the early season, to the record-breaking streak without an INT and MVP-caliber play throughout the second half of the season, he has kept everyone talking all year. I don't hear too many people talking about his hair anymore (maybe it's the beard?). I, for one, am convinced that Brady is actually the reincarnation of Samson. His hair is the source of his strength. We can only hope Gisele does not go all Delilah on him and cut it in his sleep prior to the Super Bowl. That's right guys, Bible references. See, we're not all pop culture and Rex Ryan feet jokes around here. And I don't even think we crossed the line into blasphemy. That's a win.

Well, it looks like yours truly was absolutely right about Wild Card weekend being anything but predictable.  While my two colleagues played it safe and went with the "consensus" four picks, I decided to march to the beat of my own drum.  Part of it was out of necessity.  (I'm down two games with the clock ticking!) But part of it was also due to the fact that I would have bet the house that at least one of those four fan favorites was going to be upset. 

So I was right about the upsets.  Unfortunately, it did nothing to improve my placement in the standings.  You see, it wasn't Michael Vick and the Eagles knocking off everyone's over-hyped 6th seed Packers, but rather the Seahawks stunning the defending champions.  The points I gained guessing the Jets victory were washed away by David Akers' two shanked field goals.  Everybody finished 2-2 and I'm still two games behind with only seven games remaining on the schedule. 

Making my dillemma even more severe is that the Patriots play this week, thereby limiting my ability to make a move to three games.  (None of us are picking the Jets).  Thankfully, Rick and Jason decided to pick identically yet again, which leaves the door open just a crack for me. (And just so you know, I made my picks before both of them, so I'm not just going against the grain in an attempt to make up points.)  Both of these two are riding the hype train big-time.  Look at those picks!   They're really not backing the 13-3 Falcons at home?!?!?  Something tells me that their car is about to get de-railed!

Onto the picks...

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick
NYJ @ NE
BAL @ PIT
GB @ ATL
SEA @ CHI
Last Week	2-2	2-2	2-2
Record	17-17	19-15	18-16

 

The Patriots opened as 8.5-point favorites for their Divisional Round playoff game Sunday against the New York Jets. The last time these two teams met, the Jets tried to put their blowout loss behind them by burying the game ball. This time, Patriots fans are hopeful that Rex Ryan and Company will need to dig a deeper hole.

Forty-five to three. 45-3. Patriots 45, Jets 3. Patriots fans could write poetry about that fateful night just six weeks ago. In fact, I tried to do a little haiku of my own, but my wife (an award-winning poet in her own right) forbade me from sullying the family name here for all the world to see. She probably has a point.

This game will not be as lopsided as the Week 13 blowout. The Jets seem to have realized in recent weeks that they can’t put the game on Mark Sanchez’s shoulders, as he has thrown 6 interceptions with just 2 touchdowns in his last 5 starts. Those numbers aren’t just bad; they’re Chad Henne-esque. The Jets ran the ball 37 times against an accommodating Colts defense and dominated time of possession last week, and that figures to be their best chance against the Patriots as well. The only way they can win is by keeping Brady on the sideline.

The outcome of this game is going to rely heavily on New York’s ability to run the ball and keep Sanchez out of unmanageable situations. If the Jets can keep their down and distance manageable and convert on third down, they can keep it close. They did both of those things in their Week 2 win over New England and won by two scores, but they didn’t do either of those things in Week 13 and lost by a unit of measurement that may not have been discovered by modern science.

In games between two playoff-caliber division rivals that feature a large spread, the smart money often lies in taking the points. This game should be close enough to be decided by a score or less. I’ll take the Jets at +8.5, but I’m still confident that Bill Belichick will be greeting Rex Ryan at midfield with a game ball and a shovel.

What about the other games this weekend?

no comments

As we waited to find out who the Patriots would draw in the Divisional Round, the three of us at Foxboro Blog decided to have a little "round table" discussion to look back at some of the more memorable moments in 2010.  Up next is the topic of our favorite moment from the season.

Rick: There have been a ton of great moments for the Patriots this season. But, I have a personal favorite and that came in Week 13 on Monday Night Football. That game was for the AFC East title with the 9-2 New York Jets against the 9-2 New England Patriots. Everybody thought it was the Jets' time to win the division and that the Patriots' defense could not stop anybody. Well, both the offense and the defense stepped up and won the game 45-3 to make a statement that this Patriots' team is for real. I am a New Yorker so it felt good to see the Jets' fans go a little bit down to earth after their string of last second wins against sub .500 teams. Danny Woodhead, the ex-Jet, had one of his best games of the year while Belichick even with the Patriots up 31-3 telling his team not to take the foot off the gas pedal. It felt like 2007 all over again.

Jason: Without question, my favorite part of the season was the Week 9 win over the Steelers. I grew up in Western PA and still live on the outskirts of Steeler Country, and most of my family is made up of Steeler fans. The Steelers-Pats game was two weeks before Thanksgiving, and I'm pretty sure that if the Pats would've lost, I wouldn't have been able to go home for the holidays. For me, this win meant getting to eat turkey at the Thanksgiving table instead of a healthy helping of crow. In the bigger picture, I think the win over the Steelers really put the rest of the league on notice that this Patriots team is for real. They were coming off a terrible loss to the Browns, and a loss would've left the team on the fringe of the playoff race with Indy coming to town. Instead, the Pats were able to put together a dominating win on the road against a quality opponent, a victory that put them in the driver's seat in the AFC and started a run of eight straight wins to close the regular season. The emphatic spike by Brady after his 4th quarter rushing score was an exclamation point on one of the Patriots' signature wins of the 2010 regular season. I could watch that celebration on an endless loop.

Derek: The thing that I've loved the most about following the Patriots during the Brady/Belichick era is all the nail-biting games that got my blood pumping and the euphoria that came after the Pats pulled off their improbable victory.  With that in mind, only one game this season truly fit that description, and it was Week 6 against Baltimore.  This was the Patriots' first game with Deion Branch and without Randy Moss.  They were facing the team that had steamrolled them last January in the only home playoff loss at Gillette Stadium and of Tom Brady's career.  The Patriots, down 10 points in the 4th quarter, and looking fairly out of sync for the majority of the game, finally found their rhythm.  They forced overtime, and then, in what seemed an eternity of punting the ball back and forth, clinched the victory with only minutes remaining in the extra period.  This was the game where I stopped thinking we were a good but flawed team, and started thinking "Super Bowl".  Say what you will about knocking off the Jets, Steelers, Colts, Packers, and Bears.  I believe Baltimore is the best team the Patriots have beaten all season, and they did it in the most dramatic way possible.  Just a vintage Patriots win!

As we waited to find out who the Patriots would draw in the Divisional Round, the three of us at Foxboro Blog decided to have a little "round table" discussion to look back at some of the more memorable moments in 2010.  Up first is the topic of the season's "biggest surprise".

Rick:  On the offensive side of the ball, I am going to go with Danny Woodhead. The reason I use Woodhead is because being in New York, I got the chance to watch this kid whether it be on Hard Knocks or in Jets' preseason games and I wondered when would this kid get a chance. It turns out he had to go from a secret giver to a guy who had to step in for one of the best Patriots' running backs ever in Kevin Faulk, particularly on third downs. Woodhead has been vital both in the run game and on the receiving ends on third downs because he always fought for that extra yard to keep a drive alive. For example, you can look at the game against the Vikings when Woodhead got a huge first down with the team up 21-18 in the 4th quarter.

Jason: My biggest surprise on offense would have to be Deion Branch. When the Patriots brought him back into the fold after trading away Randy Moss, the move was met with a collective shrug across the league. All he's done since coming back is post a 48-700-5 line in 11 games and be arguably Brady's most reliable option in the passing game. It's hard to envision the team being 14-2 without him.

Derek:  I'd have to say that the biggest surprise this season is Tom Brady.  Yeah, we all knew that he was a great quarterback, but this great?  After losing the 2008 season due to injury and a 2009 that was lackluster by his standard, I don't think anyone saw his performance this season coming.  In many respects, 2010 has been even better than his legendary 2007 effort.  What's even more mind-boggling is that through the first four games, the Patriots weren't looking so hot.  They beat Cincinnati, but then lost to the Jets, struggled in a win over Buffalo, and looked pretty anemic in the first half against Miami before the special teams fireworks went off.  So you have a team that is looking a little shaky, and then you take away the quarterback's #1 target.  Seems like a recipe for disaster, right?  Not for Tom Brady.  He only leads his team to an 11-1 record the rest of the way, while putting up numbers, the likes of which this league has never seen.  Pretty surprising!