Pats fans still have post-traumatic stress disorder following the Colts miraculous comeback in the 2006 AFC Championship Game.  The 4th and 2 game in 2009 was yet another punch to the gut.  So last year, with Peyton Manning and the Colts roaring back from a huge 2nd half deficit, Patriots Nation was all but prepared for yet another disaster. 

Then, the seemingly unthinkable happened.  Instead of throwing a game-winning touchdown pass to the end zone, Manning lobbed up a turkey that was subsequently hauled in by James Sanders.  Many people were pointing fingers at Manning after the game for throwing such a bad pass.  To be fair though, Jermaine Cunningham brought some solid pressure on the pass rush, and Sanders did make a pretty nice grab, falling backwards to ice the game. 

No single play in 2010 made me happier than this one, which is why it's ranked solidly at #2.

Past Top Plays

#3 - Zoltan's Game-Saving Punt

#4 - Chung's Miami Heroics

#5 - Moss Blows Up Revis Island

#6 - Branch's Turkey Day TD

#7 - McCourty's Heads Up Pick of Favre

#8 - Woodhead's Darting TD Against Indy

#9 - McCourty Forces Snow Fumble

#10 - Sanders TAINTs Roethlisberger

#11 - Gronk's Hopping TD

#12 - Branch's TD in the Snow

Coming off of an impressive preseason opener against the Jaguars, the Patriots will head down to Tampa to take on the Bucs in the second game of the preseason. We saw in the last game that even when Tom Brady does not play, New England can still put up 40+ points. Plus, we got to see kids like Stevan Ridley and Ryan Mallett that Patriots’ fans can watch grow as this month progresses.

Tonight, we get to take a look at the up and coming Bucs. This team has a fiery young coach in Raheem Morris and a quarterback of the future in Josh Freeman. Even in the tough NFC South, they have a team that can make the playoffs this year. In the draft, they worked on their pass rush and are improving as a defense.

On that note, here are my three keys to watch in this game:

1. Growing Gostkowski: An old face returned to the Patriots last week, but it may have gone unnoticed by most. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed the second half of last season with a thigh injury. Even though Patriots’ fans expect touchdowns from the offense, it is nice to know that one of the most accurate kickers in the game is back kicking field goals. He did not waste any time against the Jaguars making two 40 yard field goals. Clearly, that thigh is okay now.
   
2. Tampa’s Young Pass Rush: The Bucs didn’t do much in free agency, but they had a very good draft on the defensive side of the ball. In the 1st round, they drafted Iowa DE Adrian Clayborne who was great at getting after the QB a couple of years ago. In the 2nd round, they got a steal in Da’quan Bowers out of Clemson. If Bowers can beat his medical issues, he will be a nice talent. With their inexperience, we will see these two guys play most of the game. Will they get after Tom Brady in this game? The Patriots’ offensive line better be ready for the young motivated Tampa defensive line.
3. 3-AND-OUT: One of the huge issues for the Patriots last year was that they could not stop anybody on third down. Last Thursday, they finally were able to get the offense off the field. Yes, it is only the preseason, but when you hold a team to just 3-13 on 3rd down, it is a step in the right direction. One of the key guys on the third down defense is Mark Anderson. Even though he did not shine on the stat sheet, he commanded double teams which freed up other players to get pressure and force bad throws.

1. Recap the Bucs offseason for us. How would you grade their draft? their free agency?

The Bucs' offseason has been very controversial among the fans, however I think they have done a superb job.  The Bucs have re-signed every free agent they wanted to keep, while not over-spending on some over-rated talent.  The Bucs are building from a core built around Josh Freeman, and will not break from this mold.  The Bucs have no reason to break from this plan based on the success they saw in 2010.

2. Josh Freeman was one of the top QB's in the 2010 season. How far will his progression go in 2011? Does he have the game to lift the Bucs to a NFC South title?

With Josh Freeman, the sky is the limit.  When he came out of Kansas State, his big knock was that he didn't have the head to harness his tools, and he is proving critics wrong.  Not only has he shown drastic improvement, but he has also shown a desire to improve even further and take his team even further.  If I am a coach of the Saints, Falcons, or Panthers, I would fear Josh Freeman for the next 10 years.

The Patriots opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday night’s preseason game.

Let’s face it, it’s a bit odd seeing the Patriots as underdogs to a team like the Bucs. In 2009, Tampa was little more than a punch line to a Steve Buscemi joke – unfunny and sad. Still, there is plenty of reasoning behind this spread. As I mentioned last week, QB depth is king in preseason, but a coach’s philosophy is nearly as important. Bucs coach Raheem Morris fields a young team and is eager to prove that last year’s 10-win season is not a fluke; the Hoodie fields a bunch of veterans who would rather spend the second quarter yucking it up on the sideline. Tampa QB Josh Freeman and the starters played almost the entire first half of the first preseason game; Brady and several other starters didn’t even see the field. Plenty of Bucs players are fighting for a job and jockeying for a starting gig; it’s easy to name at least 45 New England players who already have engraved nameplates on their lockers. If these two coaches and teams were any more different, MTV would offer them their own reality show.

The big question is how much the starters will play. After leaving Brady on the sidelines last week, Belichick will probably need a chain-link fence reinforced with razor wire to keep Brady out of the huddle in this game. I look for Brady and the starters to play a series or two into the second quarter, particularly to build a little more chemistry with some of the new faces like Ochocinco and the second-year tight ends (and because Chad’s head may explode if he doesn’t get some TV time soon).

In terms of QB depth, Tampa is solid with Freeman and Josh Johnson at the helm. Even third-stringer Rudy Carpenter posted a respectable 92 QB rating in limited action in the first preseason game. Granted, they were playing against a bunch of guys who will be bagging groceries next week, but the entire team turned in an unusually polished performance for such a young squad. The Patriots excellent QB depth will keep them competitive in most preseason games, but they could have some trouble in the second half of this one.

On paper, I think the lineups these two teams will trot out on Thursday night will be fairly close. But the betting public is likely to see New England +2.5 as a no-brainer, and if the public were really that bright, Vegas casinos would be struggling even more than their city’s housing market. In this case, I think the smart money is on the home team. I expect Tampa to win this game in the second half and cover the spread.

2010 record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 record ATS: 1-0

This is, without question, the least sexy play that you'll find in this Top 12 list.  It's ranked #3 overall, but I had some serious consideration of putting it at #1.  This play was simply that important and game-altering.  Ultimately, I settled on #3, because I'm pretty sure it was the only play on this list that didn't get me up out of my seat, hooting and hollering.  Still, Mesko's 65-yard punt in overtime ended up being the defining play of the Patriots revenge against Baltimore in 2010.  Watch the video closely.  Mesko's back foot is right up against the 1 yard line as the play begins.  This was a certifiable field position disaster for the Patriots and I was nearly certain that the game was over.  Then Zoltan boomed the snot out of the ball, and suddenly, the Ravens found themselves backed up as the kick finally settled at the 18-yard line.  Other than the Jets romp late in the year, this was my favorite game of 2010.  We owe it all to Mesko's foot.

Past Top Plays

#4 - Chung's Miami Heroics

#5 - Moss Blows Up Revis Island

#6 - Branch's Turkey Day TD

#7 - McCourty's Heads Up Pick of Favre

#8 - Woodhead's Darting TD Against Indy

#9 - McCourty Forces Snow Fumble

#10 - Sanders TAINTs Roethlisberger

#11 - Gronk's Hopping TD

#12 - Branch's TD in the Snow

 
Tom Brady (ADP 21-25)
 
Few quarterbacks offer more value in this year's fantasy game than Tom Brady. On average, he comes off the board third among QBs, with Mike Vick and Aaron Rodgers routinely drafted ahead of him. After leading the league in TD passes in 2010, Brady returns all of the important skill position players from last season and most of the offensive line. Add in another strong veteran presence in Chad Ochocinco, a fully recovered Wes Welker and the maturation of TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and it's easy to foresee Brady approaching 40 total TDs again this year. That is a tremendous value in the late second or early third round of fantasy drafts. Look for a final statline of around 37 TDs, 8 picks and 4,000 yards. That should be late first or early second round production at a late second or early third round pricetag. 
 
Wes Welker (ADP 46-50)
 
Welker's value is weighted heavily by the scoring format. In PPR (points per reception) leagues, Welker is a low-end #1 WR and should not make it out of the fourth round. In non-PPR formats, he's a #2 WR who should be drafted no later than the 5th. Just a few months removed from ACL surgery, Welker put up a very respectable 86-848-7 line last year in 15 games. His previous two campaigns included 100+ catches and 1,100+ yards. Even though Ochocinco will be stealing a few touches, I think it is reasonable to expect Welker to haul in 95 passes for 1,000 yards and at least a half dozen scores. 
 
Chad Ochocinco (ADP 65-70)
 
Ochocinco is the biggest wild card on this year's team. From 2003-07, the Och posted five straight seasons of 1 ,200+ yards and at least 7 TDs. His production has taken a precipitous drop in the past three seasons as the team's QB and offensive line play has taken a nose dive and the team has focused more on running the ball to protect Carson Palmer. At 33 years old, Ochocinco may have lost a step, but he still runs strong routes and has among the best body control of any receiver in the league. In a passing game that projects to put up more than 4,000 yards, Ochocinco's floor is probably 50-800-5 with a ceiling closer to 70-1100-9. On average, he's being drafted in the 7th round as a #3 WR, and there are not many #3 WRs that offer that kind of upside.

Tonight, football is back in Foxboro! The 2011 NFL preseason begins for the Patriots at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 8-8 in 2010. The Patriots were one of the teams who made a huge splash during the Free Agent/Trade Frenzy with the additions of Shaun Ellis, Albert Haynesworth, and Chad Ochocinco just to name a few. You will probably only see Chad for about a quarter in this game because Ellis and Haynesworth have not been practicing in training camp as of late.

I know preseason football is not the most attractive to NFL fans, but when the lockout threatened the season, I was happy to watch any kind of football. Plus, this Patriots team has a ton of youth on the roster that we will get to see the future of this team in action as well as guys who will be huge contributors to the quest for Indianapolis in February. Plus, with David Garrard out for the Jaguars, we will see a ton of action from their future franchise quarterback in Blaine Gabbert.

For the Patriots, their 2011 draft class should get a lot of action in the 2^nd half from guys like OL Nate Solder, RB’s Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley as well as quarterback Ryan Mallett.

Without further adieu, we get right back into the keys to the game for 2011:

1. A Blaine of Grass: The Patriots’ first team defense at least gets to see a guy at QB who could be starting some time this season for 2-3 quarters. Blaine Gabbert was the 10^th pick in the draft for Jack Del Rio, and has a good camp from all accounts, rookie hazing aside. This is the guy that will be the franchise QB for the Jags. Last year, the Patriots saw another good rookie quarterback in the preseason in Sam Bradford. The problem for Blaine is going to be who will he throw the ball too? Mike Sims-Walker is off with Bradford in St. Louis, so Gabbert will be long away from his decent receivers at Missouri. I expect Ras-I Dowling to make a few plays at cornerback for the Patriots in this game.

2. Using the Mallett: Of course we don’t expect to see Tom Brady for much of the game tonight. My guess will be only a quarter. However, I expect to see a ton of the third round pick from Arkansas in the 2^nd half. Ever since Bill Belichick made the surprise move and took Mallett on Day 2 of the draft, he has been the talk of the town outside of New England in terms of if he is the future successor to Tom Brady. Keep an eye on Mallett’s laser arm, but also his decision making. He has been known to throw interceptions in bunches. If he does that against second or third team defenses, it wouldn’t look good in his first game. Just to add Brian Hoyer’s name into the conversation, I would expect him to play in the 2^nd quarter of this game.

3. The Price is Right: With Ochocinco, Welker, and Branch set as the top three wide receivers, there is a battle in camp between Brandon Tate and Taylor Price to be a starter on this team. Price is winning that competition as of right now. The one criticism I have of Tate is that he does not do well with stretching the field, which is why New England traded for Chad. Price is making some acrobatic catches in camp and to add another deep threat to use Welker and Branch for the middle of the field would be an added bonus for the Pats.

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The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites as they open the 2011 preseason against the Jaguars on Thursday night. (Yes, sportsbooks actually offer odds on preseason games, and yes, people actually bet on them. Don’t judge me.)

I’ve been called a lot of things for wagering real money on preseason football games. Sick. Arrogant. Depraved. Moronic. Allergic to money. And those are some of the nicer things Mom called me. While it seems counterproductive to bet real money on games that don’t mean much to either team, there are plenty of opportunities to profit in preseason football if you can temporarily forget everything you know about betting on regular-season football games. For the general public, that shouldn't be too difficult. (ZING!)

There are three simple rules when betting on preseason football: 1) QB depth is king, 2) don’t pick against first-year head coaches unless their team truly sucks, and 3) always lean toward the underdog since the games don’t really matter. Both teams have long-tenured coaches, so Rule #2 doesn’t come into play here. Teams only play the starters for the first two or three series, so the result of most games will depend on the quality of the backup and third-stringer (particularly in the first and last preseason games when starters may only play a single series). After Brady straps on the headset, the Pats will give plenty of reps to reliable backup Brian Hoyer and talented rookie Ryan Mallet. The Jags will be without starting QB David Garrard, so they’ll be starting rookie Blaine Gabbert, then handing it off to Luke McCown in the second quarter. If they get down to their third-stringer, they’ll be trotting out Todd Bouman. Yes, the same Todd Bouman who wasn’t even good enough to make a practice squad last year. The same Todd Bouman who was riding a tractor during the 2010 season when the Jags called him to come in as an emergency QB, presumably because Vinny Testaverde was happy in his new career bagging groceries. That Todd Bouman.

If you think Jacksonville’s QB situation is bad, you should see the guys that are supposed to haul in these errant passes. In 15 total seasons in the NFL, the top 4 guys on the Jags’ WR depth chart have combined for fewer catches than Wes Welker’s total from the past two seasons. 49ers castoff Jason Hill is penciled in as a starter. I know the first preseason game is always ugly, but this one might set the forward pass back 50 years.

I like the Patriots to cover the 3.5-point spread comfortably.

Change is here.

After running a 3-4 base defense for nearly a decade, things will look different in Foxboro this year.

And why would this be a surprise?

Despite 25 interceptions, New England’s defense surrendered 258.5 passing yards per game, good for third-worst in the league.

When it came to third-down defense, none performed worse than the Patriots who allowed a league-high 47.1 percent completion percentage.

The root of the problem lies in the pass rush, or lack thereof.

The team lacked the top-tier pass rushers off the edge, especially at the outside linebacker position.

Now, the scheme has been adapted to fit the personnel.

Bill Belichick has masterfully bought low on several key veterans, none bigger in personality or stature than former Pro Bowler and Washington Redskins bust Albert Haynesworth.

The mammoth free agent bust was picked up for a 2013 fifth-rounder and early reports state he is dominating in practice.

After refusing to play nose tackle in Washington’s new 3-4 defense, Big Al should thrive next to Vince Wilfork in the middle of a four-man line.

With Haynesworth playing the three-technique, Wilfork should play a similar role in the 4-3 as he did in the old scheme. His primary role will most likely be to draw double teams, which should allow the linebackers to make plays behind the line of scrimmage.

One of the big problems with converting to a 4-3 is the lack of edge rushers. According to reports, Jermaine Cunningham and Eric Moore have been underwhelming in practice in getting to the quarterback. no comments