Yes, it’s that time.

No more Brian Hoyer throwing to Buddy Farnham.

No more Darius Butler getting burned by another receiver.

It’s game time.

After months of preparation, grueling practices, a lockout and the additions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth, the Patriots are only a day away from their first step to a fourth championship.

With reigning MVP Tom Brady at the helm, and a wealth of weapons around him, the Pats offense shouldn’t lose a step.

What’s more exciting is the change to the 4-3 defense, which is only enhanced by some great veteran additions in Andre Carter, Shaun Ellis and Haynesworth.

That said, here are some of my predictions for this year.

1. Tom Brady will not throw more than 30 touchdowns.

This isn’t a reflection of Brady as much as it is the diversity of this offense. With a strong stable of running backs and more depth on the offensive line, I see the Patriots maintaining a strong balance between the run and pass. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley look like strong bets to punch the ball in when it’s inside the 5-yard line.

2. The trio of Haynesworth, Carter and Ellis will reach 20 sacks.

Carter may be the most under-the-radar signing on this team. Whenever he’s played in a 4-3, he’s been terrific. He’s in great shape, has plenty of experience and is tough. Ellis brings some of the same traits, but is stouter and can play in both the 3-4 and 4-3. I’m buying in on Haynesworth and think he’ll post at least six sacks in a part-time role.

3. Chad Ochocinco will be fourth on the team in receptions.

Quite simply, Ocho isn’t as good as he thinks. His hands have been terrible and he simply doesn’t separate as well as he used to when he posted 750 receptions with the Bengals. Wes Welker is Brady’s go-to guy, and Deion Branch has terrific chemistry with Tom. And my next prediction….

4. Aaron Hernandez will finish second in receptions.

The second-year tight end is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He has 4.6 speed at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds. He has rare yard-after-the-catch ability and is a solid route runner. Plus, he switched back to his college number, and in his last season at Florida, Hernandez was THE guy.

5. The Patriots defense will not force as many turnovers, but will rank in the top-12 in third-down defense.

With Devin McCourty leading the team with seven interceptions, the Pats were a turnover-based defense last season. While I don’t see them forcing as many turnovers, I think they’ll make a huge leap from being the worst third-down defense in the league. The defensive line rotation is deep with Mark Anderson and Jermaine Cunningham as sub-package rushers, and Jerod Mayo is poised to be playmaker in this new defense. no comments

Tom Brady

Miami's secondary was average last year despite playing a quarter of their games against Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez. I don't think Brady will put up video game numbers since it's Week 1 and Belichick won't want to show too much of his hand, but Brady should still should put up around 280 yards and 2 or more scores. Start him with confidence.

Benjarvis Green-Ellis

The Law Firm scored in both contests against Miami last year, and I'd expect the Pats to emphasize the run to protect Brady early in the season. Look for at least 80+ yards and a score. He could be a Top 10 RB this week.

Danny Woodhead

Woodhead is likely to be on the wrong end of a 65-35 split in terms of touches, but I think the Pats will feature the running game more than usual. He is a reasonable flex option in deeper PPR leagues, but nothing more. Expect around 40-60 total yards and no better than a 50-50 shot at a score.

Wes Welker

Welker has been a serious thorn in the Dolphins' side since they traded him to New England. He's put up 28 catches for 321 yards in his last three games against his old team. Start him with confidence and expect at least 6 catches, 80+ yards and a possible score.

Chad Ochocinco

Belichick has a knack for getting new players involved early in the season, so I could foresee Chad hauling in at least 4-5 passes for 60 yards and a possible score.

Deion Branch

Branch was an extremely cheap buy for most owners, going undrafted in many leagues. He'll have tremendous value in games that the Pats lean on the pass, but that won't be the case this week. You can start him if you're really in a pinch, but don't expect more than 5 or 6 looks and 40 yards.

Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski

These guys are going to be a headache for owners most weeks because their stats will depend entirely on the kinds of formations the Pats use to create match-up problems. Conventional wisdom would suggest Gronkowski would have an edge due to the fact that he'll see the field more if the Patriots emphasize the run, but they may use Hernandez more in the passing game this week because he creates a better match-up against Miami's quick linebackers. I think Hernandez is the better bet for 50+ yards and a score, but Gronk could approach those numbers if the Pats get a big lead early.

Stephen Gostkowski

How much have we missed this guy? It's early in the season, and the Pats' offense may still need a game or two to really start hitting on all cylinders. Don't be surprised if the Ghost hits 2+ FGs and several extra points.

Patriots Defense/ST

Any unit playing against Chad Henne deserves plenty of consideration. The Dolphins should have an average running game, but playing the run should be a strength for the Pats. I expect the Dolphins to score around 14-17 points and give up 3-4 sacks and 1-2 turnovers. Miami is well-coached, so don't expect a special teams score. If there is a score, expect it to be a pick 6.

 Photo Credit: Gary Higgins/The Patriot Ledger

On Monday night, the 2011 season will commence at Sun Life Stadium as the Patriots take on their division rivals, the Miami Dolphins. Most experts have the Pats advancing to the Super Bowl in February at Indianapolis, but we all know the road is not going to be easy. From all accounts, the Patriots have been relatively healthy this week at practice with the exception of RT Sebastian Vollmer, who is fighting a bad back. If he can’t go, look for1st round pick Nate Solder to take over that spot. Before you put this one in the win column for New England, Miami has been a thorn in the side for Tom Brady in hot Florida towards the first two months of the season.

As for the Dolphins, not a lot is expected them from this season. Head Coach Tony Sparano was almost replaced by Jim Harbaugh by his owner behind his back. That shows you the level of confidence, or lack of confidence they have in Sparano. Their signal caller Chad Henne has a confidence issue and last season, he struggled to keep the ball away from the other team. They did sign Reggie Bush to improve the running game, but losing Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to free agency could take its toll. It’s the defense though that is the strength of this team, especially LB Cameron Wake (14 sacks in 2010).

Without further adieu, here are three keys to watch in Week 1:

1. One Running Back Short of a Pair: There is no Ricky-Ronnie combination in Miami this year and they might not have their power running back for this time. 2^nd Round pick Daniel Thomas out of Kansas State might miss the game. He tweaked his hamstring that he hurt in the preseason. If he can’t go, Larry Johnson gets the start. Yes, the Larry Johnson that was great in KC, but only had five carries for two yards last season! Reggie Bush is a good running back, but he is not a number one rusher despite the change of scenery. The Pats were a top ten rush defense last season and they will make Chad Henne have to win this football game.

2. The Brady-Ocho connection: With the exception of the Lions’ debacle, you can say Tom Brady had a very solid preseason. However, with the exception of the touchdown against Tampa Bay, Ochocinco was no bueno in the preseason. He dropped a ton of balls and it has taken him a while to get down the system. Miami has some decent cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, but they do not obtain interceptions so that helps Brady in this game. I don’t expect it to happen here, so look for a lot of passes up the middle to Gronkowski and Hernandez.

3. Waking Up the O-Line: I talked about Cameron Wake in the introduction and I think he could wreak havoc on this offensive line. If Vollmer can’t play, putting Solder at RT is going to be a huge problem going up against the man with fourteen sacks last year. You know Mike Nolan will line the two up one-on-one if that is the case. This is where veteran Brian Waters will have to help ease Nate into the game. The Pats kept him in check last year though (9 tackles, 1 sack in 2 games). He will get a sack or two, but hopefully for the Pats, it is not a game-changing sack.

Prediction: This game has the potential to be a blowout, but I just do not see it. This game reminds me too much of the opener in 2009 when the lowly Buffalo Bills came into Foxboro. Trent Edwards had one of his best games of his career along with Fred Jackson. If not for a Leodis McKelvin fumble, the Patriots lose that game. That being said, I think this game is a close game for 3 ½ quarters.

Chad Henne had a decent preseason and he seems to have a good chemistry with Brandon Marshall. It probably won’t feel like a home game for the Fins, but if Reggie Bush does well, they can waste some clock.

However, I like the Patriots in this football game. They were one of the best teams last year in forcing turnovers, Last season, Henne was sacked five times and intercepted four times to go with his 65 QB rating. That is pretty ugly! He makes the huge mistake that helps Brady and the Pats pull away in the 4^th quarter.

Patriots 30 Dolphins 20

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Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session.  Up this week is Bloguin's own Phins Phocus.  Cody Straam, the site's lead blogger, was kind enough to answer our questions this week.  Let's get to it!

1. On a scale of 1-10, where is your confidence level in QB Chad Henne? Does he have enough talent around him to get the job done on offense?

I would say about a six. He certainly looked much improved in the preseason playing in Brian Daboll’s new offense. I think Reggie Bush will also benefit Checkdown Chad, as a guy who can turn a simple pass in the flat into big yardage. Not to mention, Henne finally displayed some encouraging leadership qualities during the lockout, leading player-organized workouts.

But I still have a hard time believing he’s put some of his bad habits in the rear-view mirror. Staring down receivers has been his biggest fault thus far, and even with the progress, we’ve still seen some of that this year. He also seemingly lacks any real fire or competitive streak, which has deemed him the nickname “The Robot.” All the great quarterbacks in this league seem to be of the vocal, fiery variety. Henne’s not that guy.

And ultimately the continued struggles of the interior offensive line could mean Henne is going to have to carry this offense at times. That may become too much pressure to handle. But the hope in Miami is that an improved Henne to go along with a top five defense could lead to a return to winning ways.

 

Once again, the heated Pick 'em competition is back on Foxboro Blog!  Our staff will be making their picks on five critical games each week. To avoid any bias, you won't find our picks for the Patriots game in this spot.  Instead, we'll focus on important AFC matchups, or occasionally a big-time NFC powerhouse matchup like tonight's opener.  

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
NO @ GB
IND @ HOU
BUF @ KC
PIT @ BAL
DAL @ NYJ
Last Week	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Record	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

With the 2011 regular season fast-approaching, it's time to do a breakdown of the upcoming schedule for the Patriots.  Last week, I made predictions on the first four games of the season and had New England rolling to a 8-0 start.  Here is my breakdown of Games 9-12.

 

Week 10 - Away vs. New York Jets

The Patriots lost this game last year, and Bill Belichick rarely falls into the same trap twice. I think the Patriots take the opportunity to slam the door shut on the AFC East by completing their sweep of the Jets.  When the Patriots are focused, they almost always answer the call.  I don't see them looking past New York one bit this season and will take care of business.

Predicted Record: 9-0

It's that time again!  The Foxboro Blog Top 12 has returned!  As has been the tradition since the debut of this blog, I'll be doing a weekly ranking of the league's upper eschelon.  Unlike most Power Rankings, the Top 12 doesn't bother with the cellar dwellers and instead focuses on the teams contending for the league's twelve post-season slot and, ultimately, the Super Bowl.  Without further ado, here are my selections before any actual games have been played.  You can rest assured that there will certainly be some seismic shifts of this list in the days to come.

The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites as they open the regular season at Miami on Monday Night Football.

The beginning of fall means a lot of things. Leaves turning. Hurricanes forming. School buses making us late for work. First-year college girls making the first of many bad decisions. The Red Sox and Yankees yawning at the rest of their division. And the Dolphins still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. (We’re talking early fall here; not mid-October.)

This spread says more about Miami’s problems than it says about New England’s strength. The Dolphin offense remains an unsettled mess. The key additions (Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas) have done nothing to inspire any confidence in the preseason. They’re still starting Chad Henne at QB, which is about as exciting as buying a new sweater-vest. And they didn’t do much to improve a defense that was mediocre in 2010. With a tougher schedule in 2011, it’s difficult to envision the Dolphins improving on last year’s 7-9 record.

While the Pats return most of their important pieces on offense, New England’s defense is a bit of a question mark with the switch to more four-man fronts. In theory, it should help the team get after the quarterback and play to the strengths of the linebacker corps, but we’ve yet to see this unit in action in a game that matters. While the defensive backfield should be a strength, they don’t have a corner that matches up well against Brandon Marshall. If the Dolphins manage to keep it close, it is almost certainly because their offense does just enough to take advantage of any hiccups by the defense.

The Dolphins always play the Patriots close in Miami, but based on the talent deficit between these two teams, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins keeping it close.

I like the Patriots to cover the spread and win by double digits.

Other lines I like:

OVER (37.5) on Giants @ Redskins

This is my favorite line of the week. The Redskins did nothing to shore up a secondary that allowed the second-most passing yards last year, and playing cornerback for the Giants this preseason may have been more hazardous that wrestling a shark in the open ocean. These two teams will cover the over in the third quarter.

Giants (-3) @ Redskins

Does anyone really want to lay money that an offense highlighted by Rex Grossman and Tim Hightower can hang with anybody? Washington looks like a 4-win team this year, and those kinds of teams typically don’t hang with playoff contenders on a regular basis.

Falcons (-2) @ Bears

I know, I know. I’m betting against two home underdogs again. It’s a sickness. The Bears did almost nothing to improve in the offseason, while the Falcons appear to have taken several steps forward. This should be a close game one way or another, so I’d take the points.

2010 record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 record ATS: 2-2

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With the 2011 regular season fast-approaching, it's time to do a breakdown of the upcoming schedule for the Patriots.  Last week, I made predictions on the first four games of the season and had New England rolling to a 4-0 start.  Here is my breakdown of Games 5-8.

 

Week 5 - Home vs. New York Jets

This is the game that every Patriots fan has circled on their calendar.  It's time to serve a dish of revenge, piping hot.  Jets fans are probably supremely confident that their boys will be able to waltz into Foxboro and recreate the pounding that they handed New England in last season's playoffs.  However, the Patriots rarely allow teams to fool them twice.  You can be sure that Belichick has a whole host of schemes cooked up to counter Rex Ryan's game plan.  This is going to be a brawl, and I expect the Patriots to come out the victors.

Predicted Record: 5-0

As the Patriots trim their roster down to the final 53, a few notable players will not be on the team this season.

In a loaded backfield with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, Sammy Morris simply wouldn't see the field. 

The 12-year veteran was released Saturday after spending four seasons with the club. Morris was a tough runner in his first few years with the club, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. However, last season Morris' average slipped to 2.8 as he served as a fullback more than a runner. 

In a somewhat surprising move, the club also released defensive end Eric Moore. The former UFL star had an instant impact after being picked up late in the season in 2010, but must not have shown enough this offseason to warrant a spot in a crowded defensive line. 

Sixth-round pick Markell Carter was also released but could join the practice squad.