The Patriots open as 4.5-point favorites as they visit the Oakland Raiders in Week 4.

If you felt a strong breeze as you drowned your sorrows on Sunday evening, that was just me whiffing on all of of my picks in the late games. That happens from time to time. You’re going to run into a random weird week that features a 4-INT game from Brady and scrub teams like Seattle and Kansas City looking somewhat coherent. It’s one more reason you’ll hear me preach against putting too much of your bankroll on the line in any given week. If you manage your bankroll responsibly, you’ll always be in the game.

The key to the Oakland game should be New England’s run defense against the Raiders’ electric running game. The silver and black are coming off of a big win at home against the Jets, and they made it happen almost entirely with the running game (Darren McFadden scored two more TDs since I started writing this sentence). The Raiders have scored eight times on the ground this year; no other team has more than four rushing scores. The Raiders’ offensive line has dominated the line of scrimmage, and Bush and McFadden have made the most of every cavernous hole. New England’s run defense has been mediocre so far this season, as most of the damage has been done through the air. They’re giving up 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 19^th in the league.

I’d expect the Patriots to approach this game the same way they approached the Dolphins game with lots of men in the box and all eyes on the backfield. Oakland QB Jason Campbell is more game manager than gunslinger, so if the Patriots are able to stack the box and make the Raiders beat them through the air, it could be a long day for Oakland. The Patriots typically thrive when playing against one-dimensional teams, so I’m not expecting McFadden to gash New England the way he abused the Jets.

While the offense for Oakland has been electric, the defense has been … well, meh. They’re giving up a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry and 290 passing yards per game. They actually found a way to make Mark Sanchez look like an effective NFL quarterback. So the Pats should have no trouble finding the end zone in this one. That streak of games scoring at least 30 points appears to be very safe for another week.

The Patriots always bounce back strong after a disappointing loss. Look for New England to put up a big point total on offense and limit the Raiders to 20 or fewer points on defense. I expect the Patriots to cover the 4.5-point spread very comfortably.

Other lines I like this week

Dolphins (+8) @ Chargers

Regular readers know that I typically try to find value among favorites, but this will be a notable exception. The Dolphins have played all three of their opponents tough this year. They’re probably the best 0-3 team in the league right now. The Chargers lack consistency on offense. I’ll take 8 points and a tough, desperate team against an inconsistent opponent any day of the week.

Saints (-7.5) @ Jaguars

The Saints have to be licking their chops at the prospect of getting after rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, and nobody in the Jacksonville passing game will scare New Orleans defensive backs. The Jags have played two close games led by an underrated defense, but when the Saints offense is clicking, it’s almost impossible to stop. Look for New Orleans to jump on Jacksonville early and pound them into submission late.

Bills (-3) @ Bengals

The Bills could be due for a bit of a letdown after their emotional win in Week 3, and the public is going to back them hard after watching them beat New England to move to 3-0. All red flags aside, the Bills are more than three points better than a Cincy team that hasn’t played anybody good and still sits at 1-2.

Vikings (-1) @ Chiefs

I hate that I’m backing five road teams this week, but I can’t see the Chiefs winning this game after suffering yet another serious injury setback with CB Brandon Flowers out with an ankle injury. Who is still standing in Kansas City? The Vikings have blown three double-digit halftime leads and will be motivated to play a complete four quarters on Sunday. I think they’ll get it done this week.

2010 Record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 Record ATS: 6-11

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Hit by a rash of injuries, the Patriots entered Ralph Wilson Stadium already bruised.

By the end of the day, they were battered.

Playing without Pat Chung and Ras-I Dowling, the secondary got burned by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Once again, the defense was picked apart by a non-elite quarterback (see Chad Henne).

However, the problems weren’t limited to the defensive side as Tom Brady threw an uncharacteristic four interceptions after throwing only four the entire 2010 season.

The Pats suffered a demoralizing 34-31 loss, their first against Buffalo since 2003. 

Risers

1. Kyle Arrington: After being relegated to the fourth corner, Arrington rose up the depth chart due to Dowling’s absence. The third-year pro recorded two early interceptions. He also recorded six tackles and defended three more passes. One of the rare bright spots in the Patriots terrible secondary.

2. Wes Welker: Brady’s No. 1 target simply destroyed Buffalo’s secondary to the tune of 16 catches, 217 yards and two touchdowns. Welker abused rookie Aaron Williams early on and came up with a clutch fourth-quarter touchdown to tie the score.

3. Rob Gronkowski: The Gronk makes the risers list for the third consecutive week. With Aaron Hernandez sidelined with a sprained MCL, football’s best tight end continued his torrid pace, catching seven passes for 109 yards and a pair of scores. The big man already has five TDs after catching 10 as a rookie.

Fallers

1. Pass defense: Apparently there isn’t much difference between the 3-4 and 4-3. No matter how you slice it, the Patriots cannot defend the pass. While they were missing some key players in Chung, Dowling and Albert Haynesworth, the performance was inexcusable. Playing against one of the worst offensive lines in the league, the Patriots front-seven recorded a mere two quarterback hits and ZERO sacks. Pro Bowl corner Devin McCourty had another poor performance, defending only one pass while allowing a 13-yard touchdown to Stevie Johnson. Safeties Josh Barrett and Sergio Brown made little impact.

2. Chad Ochocinco: If not for the loss, Ochocinco would be the clear-cut biggest disappointment. The former Pro Bowler looks like a shell of his former self in this offense. For the second time, Ochocinco’s penalty negated a Gronkowski touchdown and his poor route running was the biggest factor in Brady’s second pick. To top it off, Chad dropped an easy touchdown, prolonging the Pats’ final drive.

3. Defensive ends: The shift to the 4-3 defense was supposed to signify attack mode. The results so far? More dancing with the tackles. Veteran additions Mark Anderson, Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter have been quiet in the pressure department. Even more disappointing is the fact Jermaine Cunningham, the 53^rd pick in the 2010 draft, can barely get on the field. The Pats NEED this group to step up to alleviate the pressure off a weak secondary.

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Last week, the Patriots won their home opener 35-21 against the San Diego Chargers. Tom Brady put up another 400+ passing yard game and the defense was able to force four turnovers against a good quarterback in Philip Rivers. This week, they take on a surprising 2-0 team in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills have put up the most points in football over the first two games. Yes, they have put more points up than the Patriots. Think on that sentence for a second.

It all stems down to the play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for Buffalo. Fitzpatrick has thrown for as many touchdowns as Brady (7), has completed 63.4% of his passes, and he has only turned the ball over once this season. He could have a field day even without wide receiver Roscoe Parrish on Sunday. The Bills are on a major high in momentum right now after their comeback last week from 21-3 down against the Oakland Raiders. Even with fifteen straight losses to the Patriots, Bills’ nation might actually have a sense of optimism about this game for the first time in a long time.

They have every reason to be optimistic. Part of that though has to come with the Patriots’ rash of injuries. Tight end Aaron Hernandez is out 1-2 weeks with a sprained MCL, safety Patrick Chung might not play after having thumb surgery this week and cornerback Ras-I Dowling might miss the game with a thigh injury. The injury bug has hit the Patriots’ camp, but as we saw with the Packers last year, you can have injuries and still hoist the Lombardi Trophy when it is all set and done.

Here are my three keys to watch in Sunday’s game:

1. Run Fred Run: With the injuries to Roscoe Parrish and the groin bugging Stevie Johnson, the Bills might actually look to running back Fred Jackson to try to keep Tom Brady off the field as long as possible. They have a good weapon to do that in Jackson. He leads the league in rushing through two games despite the great numbers by Fitzpatrick. Despite his 112 yard game against KC in Week 1 and 117 yard game against Oakland last week, I think Jackson will struggle this week! Dating back to 2007, the Patriots have done a good job in preventing the big run. In seven games, he is only averaging 4.83 yards per carry. However, he has 146 receiving yards. With Fitzpatrick’s success, he might make a bigger factor in the receiving game. Don’t let this guy beat you with his legs first.

2. Who Puts the D in Defense: Most experts think that this game is going to be a shootout at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday. I tend to agree with them. The key to watch for this point is going to be turnovers. Both teams have taken the ball away five times over the first two games. New England’s turnover differential is +4 while Buffalo is at +3. This game when it comes to points could be decided with a takeaway. Tom Brady has been great so far. Buffalo’s pass defense is 13^th in the NFL through two games, but they have played Matt Cassel and Jason Campbell. That is not exactly Tom Brady.

3. Tight at Tight End: With the injury to Aaron Hernandez and the cutting of Rob’s brother Dan Gronkowski on Friday, the Patriots are thin at tight end for this football game. I do expect Rob to come up big in this one. He is a Buffalo native and as Tom Brady tells the media, if he gets his hands on the ball, it will be caught. I think Rob has a touchdown in this game, but look for the Patriots to go to more four wide receiver sets and getting a certain Ochocinco involved.
   
   For the Bills, they have a good tight end as well and a surprising one in Scott Chandler. Chandler backed up Antonio Gates and Jason Witten at different points in his career. This year, he is getting his chance to start. Chandler has only seven catches for 79 yards so far, but he also has three touchdowns. If the Bills get in the red zone, look for them to target Chandler for the score.

PREDICTION: We all know about the streak. The Patriots have won fifteen straight against the Bills since that 31-0 loss in 2003 up in Orchard Park. Tom Brady is 17-1 against Buffalo with a 103.0 QB rating. He knows how to take advantage of a secondary that does not have any big names on it.

I think this game is going to be a shootout. The Patriots’ defense has taken away the football numerous times like they did last year but they still give up a ton of yards. Fitzpatrick is going to play well and get the crowd fired up to start. It comes down to the 4^th quarter where Tom makes one more play to win and Devin McCourty will bounce back with an interception to close it out. I’ll say this: I will not be surprised if the Bills win this game. All great streaks have to end sooner or later. Buffalo played the Pats tough last year in Gillette Stadium and lost in Week 3 38-30. I expect close to the same score this time around.

PATRIOTS 38 BILLS 31

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Tom Brady

The Buffalo secondary is very vulnerable, ranking among the league's worst units against the pass last season. Look for Brady to put up 300+ yards and 3-4 scores again this week.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch/Chad Ochocinco

The entire WR corps stands to benefit from the loss of TE Aaron Hernandez, but perhaps none moreso than Ochocinco. I expect him to break out with 5 catches, 60 yards and a score. Welker and Branch should each be in the 6 catch, 100 yard range while splitting 1-2 TDs. It's a "start all your Patriots" kind of week.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead

The Patriots figure to put up plenty of points this week, so both RBs could easily post solid RB2 numbers. Look for BJGE to approach 80 yards and a score and Woodhead to post his best game of the season with 80 total yards and a 50/50 shot at finding the end zone.

Rob Gronkowski

The injury to Hernandez makes Gronk a sure-fire top 5 tight end. He should find the end zone on one of his 5 or 6 grabs. Pencil him in for at least 70 yards too.

Stephen Gostkowski

Expect big things this week as the Pats pile up the points. 1-2 FGs and 5 XPs sounds reasonable.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams

The Bills' offense has been solid so far this year and should be able to put up at least 17-24 points. Don't expect a ton of sacks or turnovers either. This unit is a marginal play this week.

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Joe Pinzone from Buffalo Wins, Bloguin's Buffalo Bills blog.  Here's what Joe had to say about the Bills and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. On a scale of 1-10, how surprised are you with the Bills' 2-0 start? Is it sustainable throughout the final 14 games?

I'm not surprised at them starting 2-0 to be quite frankly. Before the season, I thought the Bills would beat the Chiefs and Raiders. However, I'm shocked at how they have scored 81 points in two games. It's the most points the Bills have scored in the first two games of the season since 1991. As far as keeping the 40-point a game up? I doubt they will be able to do that. The Bills played against a Raiders team that has a brutally bad secondary and a Chiefs team that is borderline pathetic.

2. The major question surrounding the Bills has been the protection of Ryan Fitzpatrick. So far, Fitz has not been sacked once. How have they been able to do so well in the pass protection?

Fitzpatrick has only been sacked 24 times in his last 15 starts. However, when Trent Edwards and Brian Brohm started three games collectively last year, the Bills gave up 10 sacks. I think a lot of the credit has to do with Fitz and the way the offense is designed. The Bills rely on quick passes and routes that run anywhere between 8-10 yards. They love using comeback routes. The Bills have only had two pass plays of 20 yards or more this year, which tells me Belichick will probably play tight coverage to try and take away the underneath routes.  You will see the Bills use a lot of empty backfield formations, but because the Bills love getting rid of the ball fast, it is really hard to get to Fitz. The Raiders tried blitzing Fitz last week, but they couldn't get to him.

3. With Stevie Johnson not being 100% and Roscoe Parrish being carted off Sunday, how big an issue is the Bills' depth at WR for Sunday's game?

It's a concern.The Parrish loss stinks, but the Bills offense still put up 5 touchdowns without him in the line-up. If we lose Johnson, then yes, the sh#t would hit the fan. After Johnson, the rest of the Bills wideouts are all 2nd year undrafted guys. I will say this, you guys gotta keep an eye out for David Nelson. He has 14 catches on the season and he may be the best route runner we have on the team. He plays in the slot, which is pretty unique because the guy is listed at 6'5, and normally, you don't have slot receivers that tall. Anyways, he's been money this season. The thing about the Bills offense is that they love to spread the ball around. There was a big question mark as to who would be the 2nd option for the Bills since Lee Evans left, but I think people made too much of it because the Bills love playing 4-5 wide sets. In other words, if you are open, you are getting the ball.

4. We have to talk about Scott Chandler. He looks to be Buffalo's target in the red zone right now. How has he been so good in this offense that has put up 39 points per game?

He's looked good. I wouldn't say he's a huge factor. I think it goes back to the Bills love for spreading the ball around. If Chandler is open, he will get the ball like all the other guys. It is still to early for me to really take Chandler seriously, because Gailey normally doesn't use the tight end position all that much. Not to mention, the Bills have always ignored the position. Chandler scored two touchdowns in week 1 and the last time a Bills tight end accomplished that in a game was in 2007.

5. If the Bills are going to win this game, who will be a bigger thorn in New England's side? Ryan Fitzpatrick or Fred Jackson?

Hmmm. I'm going to go with Fred Jackson. He's actually had the Patriots number over the years.In seven games, he's averaged almost 5 yards a carry against the Pats and has had over 100-yards in total offense in four of those games. It may not sound like a lot, but up until last year, he was pretty much splitting time with Marshawn Lynch. Now, he's the unquestioned featured back for the Bills. As for Fitzpatrick, I'm still not sure he can overcome a Bill Belichick coached team. Last year, he played well the first time around when he passed for almost 300 yards and guided the Bills to 30 points. However, he really regressed in his final meeting against them in Buffalo when he turned the ball over five times in a 34-3 loss. So, because Jackson has the better track record against the Pats, I will go with him as being the bigger thorn.

6. Give me a key to this game.

Tom Brady needs to get kidnapped. OK, that's a crime. I think the Bills need to control the game clock. The Pats are too good offensively to try and get into a shootout. So, I'd love a full dose of Fred Jackson. I also think the Bills have to get pressure on Brady. Just watch the film for Pats vs Giants Super Bowl. If you can get in Brady's face, you can slow him down. However, the Bills pass rush has been anemic this year. Last week, Jason Campbell lit them up for over 300-yards. Yeah, THAT Jason Campbell! So, ball control and pressure are the keys. However, kidnapping Brady works for me as well.

7. Will the Bills pull the upset? Why or Why not?

No. I'm so tapped out by this streak. The Pats are in my head. They are just so good. Brady doesn't make mistakes and the Bills defense is a mess. I think the Bills can put up points on you guys, but I think it boils down to whose offense is better, and that goes to Brady and company.

Bills: 38
Pats: 52

Yup, not a typo.

After two weeks, the Pick 'Em game has become a runaway train, or at least that how it feels to me.  Embarrassingly, I'm already three games down at .500, while newcomer Trevor is using his beginner's luck (or superior acumen) to lead all scores at 8-2.  Here's the breakdown for the week. 

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
MIA @ CLE
NYJ @ OAK
HOU @ NO
GB @ CHI
ATL @ TB
Last Week	2-3	4-1	4-1	3-2	4-1
Record	5-5	6-4	7-3	6-4	8-2

On Tuesday I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Butch Stearns of The Sports Pulse Network. Check out the link below for information and analysis on the Patriots' season so far. 

http://thepulsenetwork.com/sports/sports-buzz/09-20-11-tom-terrific-and-pats-roll-on/

While the Patriots haven’t suffered as many devastating injuries as the Giants or Chiefs, the injury bug has still wriggled its way into the roster.

Two key cogs in the trenches – starting center Dan Koppen (leg) and defensive tackle Myron Pryor (groin) – were placed on injured reserve Wednesday.

Despite some athletic limitations, Koppen is the leader of a veteran offensive line that was one of the top units in 2010. In fact, the Patriots ranked second with a 4.82-yard average rushing up the middle, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac.

Former starting guard Dan Connolly will be the full-time starting center, making the late signing of Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters even more important.

The team re-signed Landon Cohen to replace Pryor. Cohen finished last season with the Pats and recorded three tackles in two games.

Banged-up players

Tight end Aaron Hernandez has a sprained MCL and could miss anywhere from one to six weeks, according to various reports.

Safety Pat Chung had a cast on his hand after injuring his thumb against the Chargers.

Cornerback Ras-I Dowling did not return after leaving with a thigh injury against the Chargers. Dowling had started the first two games opposite Devin McCourty.

Defensive tackle Mike Wright suffered a concussion in week one. Wright missed the final six regular season games and was unavailable for the playoffs after suffering the same injury last year.

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For the third week in a row, we have a new team in the #1 spot.  Despite the fact that eight of the twelve teams from last week played each other, things stayed relatively stable.  All twelve from last week are back, and no team dropped more than three spots or rose more than two. Perhaps things will heat up more next week, when the elite have the opportunity to stub their toes against some lesser competition.

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The Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites as they visit the surprising 2-0 Buffalo Bills in Week 3.

New England’s offense has looked unstoppable through two weeks, and the defense has made enough plays to get by. The Pats have been one of the darlings of the national media. So it would probably surprise more than a few casual observers to learn that the 2-0 Bills have actually scored more points AND given up fewer points than the Patriots so far this year. True story. Please feel free to use that information this weekend to win a bar bet. I promise you’ll find a taker somewhere.

The biggest question is whether Buffalo’s hot start is a mirage based on the level of competition they’ve faced (the Raiders are a .500 team at best, and I’m not sure if Kansas City could beat Boston College right now). Despite those questions, the numbers for Buffalo are hard to ignore. While much of the attention has been focused on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (7 TDs, 1 INT), Buffalo’s running game has set the tone for the offense. The Bills are averaging an astonishing 190 yards per game on the ground, tops in the league. They’ve played well with a lead against Kansas City, and they’ve come from behind against Oakland. The Bills defense is still a bit of a work in progress. They were gashed for 131 yards on the ground last week, and their overall defense was one of the league’s worst last season. They have shown signs of improvement this year, but it’s hard to imagine them shutting down Brady and Company this week. The New England offense will get theirs; covering this spread will come down to the Buffalo offense vs. the Pats D.

The Patriots are a virtual lock to put up 30+ points and could easily approach the 40s. The question is, can they hold the Bills under the 26 or so points it would take to cover this spread? As we saw last week, the Patriots have a knack for shutting down a team’s biggest weapon and keeping everything in front of them. If they can shut down the running game and force the Bills to throw, they should be able to limit the damage.

And finally, don’t discount the psychological edge the Patriots have in this series. New England has beaten Buffalo something like 400 straight times (or thereabouts). If the Patriots jump on top 14-0, will the Bills be able to respond? If the Bills go up by a score and then watch New England march right down the field and put the ball in the end zone, will the Bills be able to maintain their composure? That is a tall order for a team that has been down as long as Buffalo.

I like New England to cover the spread, and I also would take the over at 51 ½.

Other Lines I Like

Steelers (-10.5) @ Colts

The Colts are an absolute mess right now. The offense was built to throw, and the defense was built to protect leads. But they can’t do either of those things without Peyton Manning on the field. They have had trouble sustaining drives against middle-of-the-road defenses in Houston and Cleveland, ranking 24^th in first downs, 28^th in scoring and dead last in time of possession. If they can’t put up decent numbers against those teams, what is Pittsburgh going to do to them?

San Diego (-15) vs. Kansas City

There is an unwritten rule somewhere about not giving up this many points in a game between division rivals, but after watching KC have more ACL tears among key starters (2) than TDs (1) the past two weeks, I’m throwing that rulebook out of the nearest car window. KC could be well on their way to winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. They’ve been outscored 89-10 the past two weeks against Buffalo and Detroit. If you can invent a scenario that includes KC going on the road and keeping this game close, feel free to point out the err of my ways in the comments section. If this is a cover, it almost has to be of the backdoor variety. I just don't see it.

Arizona (-3) @ Seattle

This line looks like a gift. I know that Seattle typically plays better at home, but they’ve done pretty much everything wrong so far this year. Opposing QBs are hitting nearly 75 percent of passes, the Seahawks rank last in rushing offense and second-to-last in scoring, and Tavaris Jackson is still somehow under center. Granted, Arizona has serious issues stopping the pass, but the 49ers proved that you don’t have to have an elite defense to shut down Tavaris Jackson. Kevin Kolb has been clicking in the Arizona offense. I think they’ll score plenty enough to hold off the Seahawks on the road.

2010 Record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 Record ATS: 5-7