Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Jon Presser from Jets Report.  Here's what Jon had to say about the Jets and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have been known for being a ground and pound team. Lately, they have been ground and pounded. What is wrong with the Jets' running game?

The offensive line is in shambles. Under offensive line coach Bill Callahan, the Jets had the top-ranked offensive line in 2009 and 2010, and it showed in their punishing ground-and-pound running attack and deep strikes down the field to their wide receivers.

This season, the Jets are really feeling the loss of right tackle Damien Woody to retirement, as well as the injury to All-Pro Nick Mangold. Not only that, but right guard Brandon Moore is not 100% recovered from offseason hip surgery, and their top backup lineman Rob Turner is out for the season with a broken leg.

With undrafted rookie Colin Baxter playing the majority of the season at center, the entire offensive line has been out of sync other than D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who has quietly emerged as one of the best left tackles in football.

Mangold, who also makes the protection calls at the line of scrimmage, is dealing with a high ankle sprain and will try to play this weekend. Even him at 80% health is a major upgrade and should eliminate a lot of the confusion as far as the protection issues that the Jets suffered from dearly in the Baltimore game.

2. Mark Sanchez has been throwing the ball a lot this season. Can the Jets go to the Super Bowl with Sanchez throwing the ball 40 times a game?

Honestly, I don't think it's a huge concern. It goes back to the offensive line. They won't win if Sanchez has to get rid of the football quickly every snap, but they won't win the Super Bowl with him throwing 15 passes a game either. They need to strike a good balance that is predicated on running the football more effectively and giving Sanchez time to survey the field and find the open man.

Sanchez's best games in his young career (he's still just 24 years old) have been in the postseason, especially his performances against the Patriots and Steelers last January. I'm far more concerned with the playcalling of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer than the play of Mark Sanchez. But if he's getting pressured on nearly every down like he did against the Ravens, the offense will be in trouble. He struggles under pressure, and he is  a completely different quarterback when he's got a clean pocket, as many QB's are.

Slowly but surely, I am creeping back in this game.  Using my "Top 12" strategy, along with my "don't try to make up the deficit all in one week" plan, I managed to come out tied for first last week, putting me only five games back in the overall standings.   Part of me is kicking myself for not picking Cinci over Buffalo, since I had a major hankering that the Bills were going to have a let-down game after overcoming the Pats.  However, I trust my Top 12 rankings more than my gut, and think that in the long term, I'll save myself several "Chicago over Green Bay" debacles for every one "Cincinnati over Buffalo" game that my gut happens to be right on.

This week is particularly interesting, since Jason, Rick, Stephen, and Trevor all made identical picks.  I think conventional wisdom backs up their picks as the Packers, Texans, and Lions are clear favorites.  Philly and Pittsburgh have been underwhelming thus far and "should" be better than the surprising Bills and Titans.  However, after four games, Buffalo really has looked much more impressive, hence their "Top 12" status.  Pittsburgh's been disappointing overall and Roethlisberger is injured.  The Titans outrank them in the Top 12 and did manage to beat Baltimore.  I think they're the hotter hand at the moment.

You can count the number of 5-0 weeks that we've had in this game on one hand, so I'd like to think I have a decent shot of at least breaking even at 1-1 on the two games that I deviated from the group.  If not, I might find myself a miserable seven games out of the lead.  Still, if I can nail both of them...      

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
PHI @ BUF
OAK @ HOU
TEN @ PIT
GB @ ATL
CHI @ DET
Last Week	3-2	1-4	2-3	3-2	2-3
Record	9-11	9-11	12-8	13-7	14-6

After a week of chaos, the Top 12 has decided to settle down yet again.  Four teams didn't budge a spot.  Only three teams moved more than one position.  Still, that didn't keep the Romocoaster from derailing the Cowboys and sending them off the board...
 

Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
1		1	0	4-0	@ Falcons
		Finally, we have a team that can hold the top spot for more than one week.  Figures that it's the defending champs.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
2		3	+1	3-1	Bye Week
		Baltimore has now shellacked two Top 12 teams.  Actually, I'd be hard pressed to name another team that's shellacked even one Top 12 team.  Impressive.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
3		2	-1	3-1	@ Panthers
		The drop isn't a knock on the Saints.  Baltimore was just more impressive this week.  With the Ravens having a bye, perhaps New Orleans can convice me otherwise with a strong showing against Cam Newton.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
4		4	0	3-1	vs. Jets
		It was a solid win on the road against Oakland, but defensive questions still remain.  I'd really like to see more opposing drives end in punts.  With the Pats' D, it's either either a score or a turnover.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
5		5	0	3-1	vs. Raiders
		Texans looked strong against the Steelers.  But just when you thought they had the South wrapped up, along come the Titans...
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
6		6	0	4-0	vs. Bears
		Detroit is undefeated and living on a prayer.  How many big comebacks can one team have?  After the past decade, I'm sure Lions fans don't care how the W's come, as long as they keep coming.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
7		12	+5	3-1	@ Broncos
		San Diego has yet to impress me, but at least they haven't shot themselves in the foot.  I can't say that for many of the teams who dropped below them this week.  And the schedule doesn't look too rough from here for the Bolts.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
8		9	+1	3-1	vs. 49ers
		The Buccs don't look like world-beaters, but they're getting the job done.  They are keeping pace with the Saints and are in prime position for a Wild Card berth at worst.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
9		7	-2	3-1	vs. Eagles
		Classic trap game last week for the Bills, who were flying a bit too high.  Still, they definitely look like the 2nd best team in the AFC East right now, and playoff-worthy to boot!
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
10		N/A	N/A	3-1	@ Steelers
		Titans are pulling out some quiet victories.  We've got a classic 10/11 matchup brewing, which could have big playoff implications down the stretch.  I see Pittsburgh and Tennessee being Wild Card hopefuls.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
11		9	0	3-1	vs. Titans
		The Steelers just don't look right.  Still, I rarely penalize for keeping things close vs. a higher ranked team.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
12		8	-4	2-2	@ Patriots
		I feel like I'm setting the Pats up for a catastrophe by dropping the Jets four spots right before they head to New England.  This could come back to bite me. However, Gang Green looked that bad against the Ravens.  It's deserved.

The Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites as they prepare to host the rival Jets in Week 5.

I fully expected New England to be a strong favorite in this matchup, but that 9.5 number really jumped off the page at me. I thought Vegas might give the Pats 6 or 7, but not two scores. I’m not going to lie, folks – the fact that the bookmakers somehow hated the Jets more than I do makes me feel like less of a man. You can’t see me right now, but rest assured I am hanging my head in shame.

When a line seems really out of whack, there is usually a good reason why. In this case, it’s because the Jets offense and run defense has been well below average in the first four games of the year. They’re giving up 130 yards per game on the ground, their completion percentage is in the bottom quarter of the league, and their two leading receivers are a running back and a tight end. Their running game has done nothing to take the pressure off Sanchez either, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry (good for 31^st in the league). The only person who’s expecting the Jets to pile on the points this week is Rex Ryan, but that’s only because his team is clearly going to the Super Bowl this year.

The real key to this matchup will be New England’s ability to decipher New York’s pass defense. The Jets rank 2^nd in the league against the pass, and they did a tremendous job of keeping Brady and the offense from finding any rhythm in the playoffs last year. The Patriots offense still really misses Aaron Hernandez, but they may have hit on something big last week (pun intended) by lining up OL Thomas Welch as a second TE to create mismatches in the running game. I would not be surprised to see them use Welch as a de facto sixth offensive lineman more in this game as well since the Jets have been vulnerable on the ground and will surely design their defense around stopping the pass.

If you’re betting on this spread, the over-under of 49.5 becomes an interesting proposition. You have to figure that New England’s worse-case scenario involves them putting up around 24 points (no jinx, no jinx, no jinx). That means the Jets will have to put up three scores to cover, which puts the total well into the 40s. If you talk yourself into taking the Jets and the points, the over makes a lot of sense. It gives you some measure of insurance against a Pats blowout and gives you a shot at winning both bets if the game is close and high-scoring (a very strong possibility in any game involving the Patriots).

I think New England will win this game, but it’s too easy for the Jets to nail down a backdoor cover with 9.5 points and the porous New England secondary. I’ll take the Jets to cover and the over (49.5).

Other lines I like this week

OVER (49.5) on Eagles @ Bills

This is an extremely tough week for picking games against the spread. Not a ton of value on the board. The Eagles defense is very thin up front and weak at linebacker, so the Bills should have no trouble moving the ball. I can’t envision the Bills shutting down Mike Vick. Getting this line anything below 50 is a steal.

Saints (-6) @ Panthers

The Panthers are receiving a pile of positive press because of the exciting play of Cam Newton. However, the defense has been pretty bad (31^st against the run, 109.5 QB rating allowed), and they’ve had trouble running the ball. New Orleans has been a well-oiled machine on offense this year, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has a knack for causing problems for rookie QBs. Saints should win this one by at least a score.

OVER (38) on Chiefs @ Colts

You know who I think wins this game? The fans with the good sense not to watch it. These teams are both painfully boring to watch. Neither of these defenses are particularly good in any area of the game, and there are enough playmakers on both offenses to allow each team to easily approach the 20s. 38 is an exceptionally low number that even these two inept teams should be able to reach.

2010 Record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 Record ATS: 8-14

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After a stunning loss to the Bills in week three, the Patriots traveled west to take on the young and talented Oakland Raiders.

Led by Darren McFadden, the league’s leading rusher, the Raiders posed a threat to New England’s hopes of staying in the hunt for the division lead.

However, like Bill Belichick has done so many times, he crafted a specific game plan to take out the opponent’s best weapon.

While the defense certainly didn’t dominate, it did enough and took advantage of some poor decisions by Jason Campbell and held the Raiders to 19 points.

On offense, Tom Brady didn’t throw for 400 yards, but was effective in finding his open receivers (aka Wes Welker) and the running game finally made an appearance.

Risers

1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley: After becoming the Patriots’ first 1000-yard rusher since Antowain Smith, some thought Green-Ellis would be able to carry the load again this year. However, the former undrafted free agent hadn’t looked capable of being THE guy this year especially after a dismal performance against the Bills (10 carries for 18 yards). However, the fourth-year veteran looked more decisive and ran with some authority against Oakland, rushing for 75 yards and a score on 16 carries.

Yet, the surprising star of the running attack was certainly Ridley. The third-round pick from LSU showed why he was a first-team All-SEC pick as a senior, rushing for 97 yards on 10 carries, including a 33-yard TD. While he was pegged as a power back in the draft process, Ridley has shown impressive quickness and speed and looks primed to eat into BJGE’s carries as the season progresses.

2. Devin McCourty: Despite all the holes and question marks on the Patriots defense, few thought McCourty would suffer from any type of sophomore slump. Through the first three games, we were all wrong. But against Oakland, McCourty rebounded with a solid performance. Campbell targeted McCourty seven times, but the 2010 pro bowler only allowed four completions for 29 yards. Hopefully McCourty builds on this performance and regains his title as a shutdown corner.

3. Offensive line: Playing against a fired-up Richard Seymour and a talented defensive line, the Patriots’ front five more than held their own. Despite not having Sebastian Vollmer in the lineup, the unit did a good job of keeping Brady clean in the pocket, allowing only one sack and four QB hits. Yet, it was the run blocking that was the biggest key of the day. Led by Logan Mankins and Brian Waters, the offensive line opened some big holes as the Patriots rushed for a season-high 183 yards on 30 carries. If they keep up this type of performance, it would certainly benefit an offense that had become too reliant on the pass.

4. Wes Welker: The little man does it again. Welker has been unstoppable this season, showing more quickness and speed than he did before his knee injury. Without Aaron Hernandez in the lineup, he has been an absolute monster. He racked up nine catches for 158 yards and a score.

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Tom Brady

Oakland's pass defense has taken a step back since losing Nnamdi Asomugha in the offseason. Brady figures to have his typical 350 yards and 3+ TDs. He's arguably the best QB play of the week.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch/Chad Ochocinco

Welker is a lock to start every week in just about any format. Anything short of 100+ and a score would be a disappointment. Branch put up an uncharacteristic 0-fer last week, but I'd expect him to bounce back with a 5-60-1 statline this week as the defense rolls coverage to Welker's side. Ochocinco blew a golden opportunity last week and might have a hard time earning much playing time going forward. Another poor performance this week would make him a very worthy option to hit the waiver wire in most leagues.

Benjarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Stevan Ridley

The running back puzzle got a little more difficult to solve last week as Ridley broke into the box scores and appeared to be the most dynamic option in the backfield. At this point, I would only start BJGE in TD-heavy leagues with a possible flex play in standard leagues, and I might leave Woodhead on the bench entirely until the waters are a bit clearer. If Ridley is still floating around in your free agent pool, he's certainly worth a speculative add.

Rob Gronkowski

Gronk had a monster game last week, and he figures to factor heavily into this week's gameplan as well. Expect him to put up north of 80 yards and a score again this week.

Stephen Gostkowski

Gostkowski is among the league's highest-scoring kickers, and that shouldn't change this week. Five extra points and 1-2 FGs is likely.

Patriots Defense/Special Teams

Most experts pegged the New England D as a borderline starting option at the beginning of the season, but they have been woeful through three weeks. I wouldn't mind using them against this week since the Pats could put a ton of pressure on Oakland's offense if the Raider defense can't contain Brady and Co. They could rack up around 3 sacks and a turnover with 20 points scored.

Well. Last week for the Patriots was a disaster. They had a 21 point lead against a division rival and folded at the end of the game. A lot of people are questioning New England’s defense due to the fact that they are statistically the worst pass defense in the game. However, we know that the Patriots never seem to lose back-to-back games and with the New York Jets coming up next week, you want the Pats to be on the uptick going into that game. Plus, Tom Brady cut his hair and is ready to get back on track after a four interception performance.

As far as the Oakland Raiders go, they finally have a winning culture developing in the Black Hole under first-year head coach Hue Jackson. They are 2-1 as well and could be 3-0 if they did not blow a double digit lead also against the Bills. The Raiders are known more for their running game and Darren McFadden. McFadden lit up the Jets on the ground last week as the team had over 200 yards rushing in a 34-24 win. Jason Campbell has talent, but can he exploit the pass defense with a lack of a big name wide receiver?

Here are my keys to this Week 4 Matchup:

1. An Old Friend Haunts the Pats : A couple of years ago, the Patriots traded away their best pass rusher, Richard Seymour, to the Raiders for a first round pick in last year’s draft .This year, Seymour has been banged up, but still has ten tackles and 2.5 sacks. The two whole sacks came against Denver, but he is still a threat to get after Brady. This guy has an axe to grind and it will be tough for the Patriots to contain him with his added motivation.

2. RUN DMC: The player to watch on this Raiders’ offense is running back Darren McFadden. He was a great running back at Arkansas and he has brought that talent to the professional ranks. In three games so far this season, McFadden has averaged 131 rushing yards per game. He played New England back in 2008 and ran for 46 yards on 12 carries with a touchdown. I expect more than 46 yards from DMC this time around. He will make an impact catching the ball as well like Fred Jackson did last week.

3. Moore Passing: With the lack of quality from the Patriots’ secondary the last three days and Patrick Chung still uncertain for this game, I look for Jason Campbell to throw the football early and often. With injures to Louis Murphy and Jacoby Ford, the Raiders have found a solution to their speed in Denarius Moore. Moore has nine catches for 180 yards and one touchdown including 146 yards against Buffalo in Week Two. Oakland could put him against Devin McCourty who has not been the same guy he was last year. Moore could also be a threat on trick plays as well.

Prediction: This game is going to be a shootout. Both teams score a lot of points, but they also give up the big play. The Raiders, quite simply, do not have the same secondary as they did with Nnamdi Asomugha. Tom Brady is not going to lose two games in a row! I look for the defense to stop Jason Campbell who is 26^th in passing.

PATRIOTS 31 RAIDERS 20

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Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Levi Damien from Thoughts from the Dark Side, Bloguin's Oakland Raiders blog.  Here's what Levi had to say about the Raiders and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. With Hue Jackson as the first year head coach, how has he been able to change the mindset of Raider nation to a more positive one?

Winning. That changes the mindset of the Raider Nation more than anything. He came in as the offensive coordinator last season and the team started winning. Tom Cable was well-liked but he was not an offensive guru the way Hue Jackson is. The Raiders had almost zero offense in seven seasons prior and that was just after having had the best offense in the NFL. That is quite a shock to the system and the fans have waited a long time to see some the offense return.

2. The obvious player to watch on Oakland is running back Darren McFadden. How do you think he will fare this weekend?

He will continue the type of games he has been having all season. The Raiders use him in a variety of ways. Most of which are running the ball but even in those instances, Al Saunders and Hue Jackson have put a lot of different variations in the playbook to find ways to get him the ball in space as often as possible. And when he isn’t running it, he will be catching screens, dumps and passes into the flat. He should have between 150 and 200 yards from scrimmage on Sunday between the run and pass.

This is quickly becoming "not fun" for me.  After yet another dismal week of picking, I find myself dead last in our Pick 'Em contest. Making matters worse, I'm not just in last place, but I'm SIX games behind our leader, Trevor.  It's time to change my strategy here...

#1 - Use the power of the Top 12 and stick with it.  That makes things easy this week for me with HOU over PIT, BAL over NYJ, DET over DAL, and BUF over CIN.  No more picking the Bears over the Packers and other stupidity in an attempt to pick up cheap points by going against the grain.

#2 - It's a sprint, not a marathon.  Looking at Trevor's picks compared to mine, I only have one chance to make up a game - DET @ DAL.  Our other four picks are idential.  Normally, I might be tempted to see if I could squeeze one out with the Jets, or buck the trend and go against the Bills, who I feel are ripe for a letdown after last week.  But we've got 14 weeks of football to go, and so I just have to turn off the panic switch, reel in my gut instinct, and play the odds for now. 

And without further ado...  The picks. 

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
PIT @ HOU
NYJ @ BAL
DET @ DAL
BUF @ CIN
SF @ PHI
Last Week	1-4	2-3	3-2	4-1	4-1
Record	6-9	8-7	10-5	10-5	12-3

I'm having a hard time remembering a week as volatile as the one we just had on the Top 12.  With three weeks under the belt, it was time to cast aside any lingering feelings from last season or the preseason and truly evaluate the teams based on what they've done on the field in 2011.  As a result, we had three teams nosedive from the Top 12, the most shocking of which was Atlanta, who plummeted off the board from #6. The Eagles and Bears also dropped completely off, while three newcomers took their places.  And the Patriots...  Well, let's just say that they probably aren't hanging onto that #1 spot after their debacle in Orchard Park.