Go figure that on a week where I go 5-2, I actually move further back in the standings...

I've decided that this game just isn't my game. Oh well.  At any rate, we should have some interesting outcomes here in Week 9.  Trevor has decided to defy conventional wisdom and is the lone person picking Tennessee and San Diego.  He'll either take the lead, or fall further behind Stephen as a result.  (Or split them and basically end up in the exact same place he is now.)  I'm the lone person picking the Ravens, and Rick is the only backer of the Broncos.  Otherwise, outside of the Jets/Bills game, all the picks are 4-1 or 5-0. 

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
NYJ @ BUF
CIN @ TEN
BAL @ PIT
GB @ SD
CHI @ PHI
TB @ NO
DEN @ OAK
Last Week	5-2	6-1	5-2	6-1	6-1
Record	22-22	26-18	25-19	29-15	28-16

For the past decade, the Steelers and Patriots have been the class of the AFC.

Their excellent coaching, personnel management and quarterback play have led to a combined seven Super Bowl appearances since 2001.

When it came to the head-to-head matchup, however, the Pats clearly had the edge.

But with a ferocious pass rush and a game plan that left Tom Brady watching from the sidelines, the Steelers snapped their losing streak against the Pats en route to a 25-17 victory.

There weren’t many bright spots for the Patriots, particularly in the coaching department, so let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Rob Gronkowski: The team’s top tight end was an early-season star, racking up five touchdowns in his first three games. However, he only caught five passes for 46 yards against the Raiders and Jets. With fellow sophomore sensation Aaron Hernandez back in the lineup, Gronk has responded with 14 catches for 168 yards over the past two games and remains a matchup nightmare. He’s simply too big for defensive backs and has enough speed to separate from most linebackers. While he failed to find the end zone for the fourth straight game, Gronkowski was Brady’s most reliable target on a day where those were hard to find.

2. Andre Carter: When the Pats picked up the former first rounder, I said he had the chance to be the biggest impact signing of the entire offseason. So far, the veteran defensive end has proven me correct. Carter was a pass rushing force, registering two sacks and another QB hit while providing his signature strong run defense. With 4.5 sacks through seven games, Carter is tied with Mark Anderson for the team lead and has been invaluable considering the continually weak production in the pass rush department.

 

Fallers

1. Offensive tackles: Whether it was Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder or Matt Light, the guys in charge of protecting the edges did not perform well Sunday. Steelers linebacker Lamarr Woodley was dominating with two sacks before he left with a hamstring injury, and Vollmer simply looked rusty and unathletic in his return from a back injury. Although they didn’t run the ball much, the offensive line did a poor job opening holes as the team averaged only 3.6 yards against a struggling Steelers run defense that was missing stud linebackers James Farrior and James Harrison.

2. Secondary: Will this unit ever be competent? I’m starting to think the secondary might just be a lost cause at this point. The team has invested at least a second-round pick at cornerback for four straight seasons and the unit still can’t cover anybody. Devin McCourty is officially in a sophomore slump and Antwaun Molden showed why the Texans, who had the league’s worst pass defense in 2010, cut him. Pat Chung’s talent is lost in the back end because of the weak safety rotation next to him. While the scheme has certainly been a cause of the problems (the secondary gives way too much cushion), talent, or the lack of, is also a major factor.

3. Tom Brady: Throw out the games against the Bills and Cowboys, and Brady has been pretty much flawless. While his 101.8 passer rating and 2:0 TD to interception ratio look pretty on paper, the game tape showed a much different version other than Tom Terrific. The reigning MVP didn’t look comfortable in the pocket, and struggled to find receivers open downfield (credit the Steelers press coverage). Brady finished with an uncharacteristically low yards-per-attempt, 5.66, and his longest throw was only for 23 yards. When he’s under pressure, Brady can look very ordinary. The offensive line has to give him time to throw and the receivers need to do a better job getting off the line.

4. Bill Belichick: Bill can’t cover Mike Wallace on a fly route. He can’t block Troy Polamalu on a zone blitz. Hell, he can’t execute an onside kick. But he is capable, but not lately, of finding the right players for his defense. The Steelers have one of the best young receiving corps in the league, and the Pats have the worst secondary. Yet, Belichick decided to cut one of his top corners, Leigh Bodden, and place the 33^rd overall pick, Ras-I Dowling, on injured reserve. Ben Roethlisberger must have taken Bill out for a few drinks earlier in the week because these moves made no sense at the time and certainly didn’t endear fans after the beatdown. Belichick has struck out big time on drafting for his secondary, not to mention at the receiver spot. The Steelers have a homegrown receiving corps that features Wallace and mid-rounders Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. Meanwhile, the Pats struck out on Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate and Taylor Price has rarely seen the field. It’s time to question Belichick’s personnel moves that have left the team simply below average at several spots.

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Week 8 was rather crazy, well, at least for some teams.  Other than Green Bay, who was on the bye, the other Top 4 teams from last week all put up rather putrid performances, opening the door for two new teams to rise to the occasion and steal spots 2 and 3.  We also lost the Chargers after their two month long battle with mediocrity.  Replacing them are the Bengals.  No matter how you spin it, this is certainly not the Top 12 that anyone could have expected at the season's mid-point.
 

Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
1		1	0	7-0	@ Chargers
		As was pretty much guaranteed, the Packers come off of their bye week hanging onto their top spot.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
2		8	+6	5-2	vs. Ravens
		I think that you can take the teams in spots 2-8 and put them in any order without much argument.  The Steelers get to hold the top spot because they had the best win of these seven teams this week by far.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
3		5	+2	6-1	@ Redskins
		Given the remaining schedule, it's not completely unthinkable that the Niners could dethrone the Packers for the top spot in the NFC.  Unlikely, but not unthinkable.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
4		2	-2	5-2	vs. Giants
		The last time New England had a stinker @ Pittsburgh, they won the Super Bowl.  Hopefully this loss can be last year's "Cleveland game" and spur the team onto a big winning streak.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
5		4	-1	5-2	@ Steelers
		The Ravens may have won, but it was an ugly win.  They have a huge challenge coming up that will likely determine which team takes the NFC North and gets a bye week.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
6		6	0	6-2	Bye Week
		The Lions get back on track by steamrolling Tim Tebow and the Broncos.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
7		7	0	5-2	vs. Jets
		The Bills were dominant this week against a bad team.  Let's see how they fare in a big division game against a mediocre one.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
8		3	-5	5-3	vs. Buccaneers
		And out of the teams ranked 2-8, New Orleans had the worst loss, which drops them to spot #8.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
9		9	0	5-3	vs. Browns
		The Texans took care of business to keep pace in the AFC South.  This team is looking like they may taste the playoffs for the first time.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
10		11	+1	5-2	@ Patriots
		And now the schedule gets brutally tough.  @ New England who's coming off a loss...  It's a tall order.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
11		12	+1	4-3	@ Colts
		Atlanta benefits from San Diego's fall and jumps up a spot during their bye week.
Ranking	Team	Last Week	Change	Record	Next Game
12		N/A	N/A	5-2	@ Titans
		And we have a new team on the board!  Making their debut are the surprising Bengals who are actually tied with Pittsburgh and Baltimore for the AFC North lead.  Everyone counts them out, but so far, there's no reason to discount Cincy's ability to take the division.

The Patriots opened as 9-point favorites as they host the Giants in Week 9.

Today’s fun fact: these two teams have never played each other before. Not once. Not even in the postseason. Never happened. And if you try to convince me otherwise, I will ninja punch you right in the mouth. And I know karate.

All ninja-punching and painful repressed memories aside, this line is heavily skewed toward the Patriots for a few reasons. First, the home crowd in Foxboro is likely to become a lynch mob at some point in this game in an attempt to find out of Eli Manning has permanent dumb face even while hanging from a tree (which is weird, since I don’t recall these two teams ever playing one another). Second, the Giants struggled against a winless Dolphins team last week, just a few weeks removed from a double-digit loss at home to the Seahawks. And third, Brady loses two games in a row about as often as Rex Ryan eats leafy greens.

These are all compelling reasons to back the Pats, but a few circumstances make me pause. First, the Giants have done a good job of protecting the football this year. Eli has taken a bad rap as a turnover artist, but at least half of his 25 picks in 2010 were of the fluky, off-the-receivers-hands variety. Second, the Giants offense compares closely to a Steelers unit that just held the ball for basically an entire game (three good receivers, decent tight end, quarterback of questionable sexuality, etc.). Third, the Steelers and Cowboys have provided somewhat of a roadmap to slowing down the Patriots offense. Playing 9 or 10 men in the box takes away a lot of the short and intermediate passes this offense favors, and the Patriots have done a poor job through two games of adjusting to attack defenses down the field against a stacked front. And lastly, the Giants do a tremendous job of rushing the passer, leading the league in sacks with 26. One of the keys to slowing down the Patriots offense is covering the short routes and getting after Brady, and I think this defense can do both.

I can’t see this game being a blowout for the Pats. I’ll pick the Giants to cover the spread, and I even like them enough to endorse the moneyline at +300 if you want to take a shot at a huge payout in a parlay. A first-ever Giants win over the Patriots isn’t terribly likely, but they’d only need to win one time in five to make it a good bet. I think it’s safe to say they have a 20 percent chance of scoring an upset here, so it’s a decent value.

Other Lines I Like This Week

Bengals (+3) @ Titans

The Bengals haven’t received much attention for their 5-2 start, but they have been playing solid football. The Titans haven’t been able to run the ball, and the Bengals are good against the pass. I think the Bengals may be better than Tennessee in all three phases of the game, so I’m happy to take the points with full knowledge that Andy Dalton will screw me over since he doesn’t have a soul.

49ers (-3.5) @ Redskins

I thought San Fran would give up around 6 in this game based on how poorly the Redskins have played with John Beck under center. The 49ers are great against the run, and Santana Moss should still be sidelined. The Becksins have averaged 10 points per game against two of the league’s worst defenses. Can someone please remind me why I should like the Redskins, ever?

Steelers (-3.5) vs. Ravens

The first loss to Baltimore was a bit fluky for the Steelers. Pittsburgh was minus-seven in the turnover battle the first time these two teams met, which is not characteristic of either team. Since his 3 TD, 0 INT game against Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco has thrown more INTs (6) than TDs (5) and has looked downright awful for long stretches. Unless Baltimore forces at least two or three more turnovers, the Steelers will get revenge against the Ravens, and their insufferable fans will continue to propagate my Facebook news feed with posts about Pittsburgh going to the Super Bowl. Sigh.

Jets (+1.5) @ Bills

The Bills may be the better team, but the Jets create an awful lot of matchup problems for Buffalo. The Buffalo defense will have trouble protecting a lead, and the Jets D is built specifically to protect a lead. The Bills probably won’t be able to move the ball through the air, and as strange as it sounds, Mark Sanchez has been doing an adequate impression of an NFL quarterback the past few weeks. This shapes up to be a two-score win for the Jets.

2011 Record ATS 19-22-2

2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

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During the Bye Week, I had a chance to do a Q&A session with the Boston Herald's Ian Rapoport.  We touched base on some pressing Patriots topics, such as the progression of the defense, Ochocinco's role in the offense, and more.  Here is Ian's take on the Patriots after their extended two weeks off.

1. On Sunday, the Patriots' defense kept the team in the game. It reminded me a lot of the Ravens game from last year where the defense kept Baltimore off the board in the 4th quarter and OT. Do you see the same parallels and is Sunday the kind of game that begins the progression of this defense?

Interesting thought. I think the main attribute the Patriots defense showed against the Cowboys was toughness. Stopping teams down by the goal-line and stuffing late-game runs doesn’t have much to do with scheme. It has to do with will. For the first few games, it seemed the Patriots defense  had no choice but to be pushed around. They couldn’t stop the run and couldn’t defend against the big-play pass. Now, thanks to the ‘D’ playing more zone and the front seven hitting, the unit is starting to come together. They’ll need all of this against the Steelers, but they’ve already made strides.

n  I think Brace and Deaderick will both provide depth whenever they are activated. The D-Line was supposed to be a deep group, one that could rotate frequently. Yet injuries to Myron Pryor and Mike Wright made that tough. Vince Wilfork had had to play too many snaps. If Brace can come in and be a key cog, that will allow Wilfork to get off the field and rest. As for Deaderick, he could take snaps from under-performing Shaun Ellis, who hasn’t quite looked like the player they thought he was.

My guess for Sunday’s game against the Steelers is that Price sees more snaps than Ochocinco. Price is a hidden gem, a talented, big, fast receiver who has hardly been used. Perhaps the challenge is building a rapport with quarterback Tom Brady, as Price didn’t have the chance to do that as a rookie or yet this season. Now, he’s healthy and he could find holes in this Steelers zone. But if both players are going to be used extensively, it’ll be against man-to-man coverage.

Easily, the Patriots best acquisition has been defensive end Andre Carter. The former Redskins star is tough and experienced, fast and savvy. His sacks are nice, and those have helped. But even more important is his ability to set the edge in the run game. At times, he’s even draw double teams. Carter was a relative unknown given his experience level and the fact that he’s a former first-rounder. But this year has been a breakout performance, of sorts.

There are some issues of concern regarding McCourty. He still has talent, that’s obvious. He’s still the same fast, smart, well-schooled cornerback who made the Pro Bowl last year. But he was really bad against press-man coverage early, struggling to jam receivers. He’s played off a little more the past few games, and that’s helped. He needs to get his confidence back, and making one big play may help with that. In the end, McCourty has too much talent to play like this.

The offensive line has certainly had problems recently, and facing either of the Ryan brothers can spell trouble for any offensive line. While rookie Nate Solder has impressed, maybe teams are figuring out how to attack him. Don’t be surprised if Sebastian Vollmer steps in for him tomorrow. Running back Kevin Faulk’s return should help long-term, as he’s their best pass-protector. But mostly, Brady will know where the Steelers are coming from, whereas diagnosing pressure was tough against the Jets and Cowboys.

I think the Patriots are the best team in the AFC, though the Steelers will take that unofficial title if they win at Heinz Field. And that is certainly more than possible. They are the two most complete teams. Pittsburgh gives up too many big plays, and the Pats defense is a work-in-progress. But the Ravens have questions at receivers and quarterback, whereas the Chargers are their usual mistake-prone selves. I’d say the winner tomorrow is the best team.

After a week of rest, relaxation, and controversial photos, the New England Patriots (5-1) get right back to work this Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2). Two weeks ago, the Pats’ defense took a step in the right direction keeping Dallas out of the end zone in the 4th quarter to help give Tom Brady time to win the game. It reminded me a lot of the Raven game from last season where the defense had its turning point of the season that led to their solid progression.

As for the Steelers, the media called their defense old and slow after they were beat down by the Ravens in Week One. However, the team has started to quietly get better each and every week. With Baltimore’s shocking loss to Jacksonville on Monday, Pittsburgh, in my opinion, is the 2nd best team in the AFC. They have solid threats at wide receiver with Hines Ward and Mike “60 Minutes” Wallace. However, the run game just has not been there with Rashard Mendenhall not staying healthy. The D is still the answer for Pittsburgh since they are the top pass defense in the league!

Here are my 3 keys to the game this weekend in the Giant Ketchup Bottle:

1. Big Ben Broken: The best attribute about Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is his ability to extend the play. He does not put up big statistical games with the exception of his 5 TD game against the Titans earlier this year. Their offensive line has never been that great and the Patriots exploited that in last year’s matchup. They had a total of five sacks on Big Ben up in Heinz Field for the victory. The guy I look to get pressure on Roethlisberger this year is defensive end Andre Carter. Carter had two huge sacks against Tony Romo two weeks ago and has been by far the best offseason acquisition for Bill Belichick.
2. Gronk Goes Off: The Patriot that made the biggest noise, but for the wrong reason was second year tight end Rob Gronkowski. The big problem was his photo with adult film star Bibi Jones where Jones was wearing his jersey in a pic where Gronkowski could have used the jersey. This is a game that Gronk is going to want to show a little bit of something to owner Robert Kraft that he is ready to play! Last year, against the Steelers, Gronk had five catches for 70 yards and three touchdowns. He takes advantage of the Steelers’ inability to match up against the two tight end sets.
3. An Unknown Deep Threat: This year, Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin has transitioned his offense from more of a rushing team to a passing team. This transition has taken place through the drafting of some good wide receivers. We talked about Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, but I want to focus on Antonio Brown. Brown has 25 catches for 364 yards this year (2nd on team in yards). Last year, he made the big catch on the 3rd and long against the Ravens in the playoffs to send them to the AFC Championship Game. With the surprise release of Leigh Bodden, Brown has a huge advantage in this game because the Patriots other than McCourty and Arrington, do not have healthy cornerbacks. I like the Steelers in that matchup.

PREDICTION: This game is going to be a shootout because of the explosiveness of both of these offenses. However, how can I go against Tom Brady in Heinz Field after watching the passing clinic he put against them last season? You just can’t! When you give Bill Belichick two weeks to prepare for a team like the Steelers, he is going to find ways to exploit that defense. I think the Pats’ defense will continue their progression upwards from the game against Dallas and this “bad” defense did have five sacks on Big Ben last year. Look at Andre Carter to be the difference in this game!

PATRIOTS 35 STEELERS 27

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Two years ago, Leigh Bodden was the team's best corner. 

Today, he’s no longer a Patriot.

According to Pro Football Talk reports, the team released Bodden Friday.

The move is surprising considering cornerback Ras-I Dowling, the 33^rd overall pick, has struggled to stay on the field with a hip injury.

Dowling had beaten out Bodden for the starting right corner spot, and Bodden also had injury issues dating back to last season when he missed the entire year with a shoulder injury.

Although the team had an up-and-down 2009 season, Bodden played well enough to earn a four-year, $22-million deal which included $14 million over the first two years. After missing the first year and not even making it halfway through the second, it looks like money down the drain.

The Bodden deal isn’t the only decision the Pats would like to have back as the team released outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain this offseason after he signed a three-year deal including a $6 million signing bonus.

Offensive tackle Nick Kaczur also signed a fairly lucrative deal back in ’09 (four years, $16 million), but missed the entire 2010 season and was released in July.

With Bodden moving on, the spotlight has officially been thrust upon Dowling to reclaim his starting spot. The physically gifted, but oft-injured former Virginia Cavalier has the skills to be a very good cover corner, but he must stay healthy to avoid being another second-round bust.

 

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Bam from Blitzburgh Blog.  Here's what Bam had to say about the Steelers and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. The Steelers are 5-2, but are not really on anyone's radar. Why do you think that is and where do they stack up in the AFC in your minds?

I think the general, football-watching public saw the Steelers get trounced by the Ravens in week one and decided that they were too old and too slow to still be an elite team. There might be some truth to that, but the Steelers turned the ball over 7 times at Baltimore in week one, something they do about once every 25 years. They are not nearly as bad as they looked in that game. Injuries have been the team's biggest issue, though, and that can be something that's impossible to overcome. I think the Steelers are among the AFC's three best teams (with the Pats and Ravens). I haven't seen enough football yet to stack anybody up in more detail than that.

2. Pittsburgh has always been known for pounding the football, but Rashard Mendenhall has been getting pounded by injuries. Are we seeing more of a transition to Roethlisberger throwing the ball more in this offense?

It's interesting that you brought this up. Win or lose, tons of Steeler fans complain every week that the team isn't running the ball enough and call for the team to get back to "Steelers football." The
truth is ever since Ben Roethlisberger showed up, the Steelers have been a passing-first offense. Roethlisberger carried the offense during the 2005 Super Bowl run and did the same thing during the
team's 2008 title. With the NFL's recent rule changes regarding downfield contact by defensive backs, it has gotten a lot easier to pass and the eye-popping passing numbers being put up this year
reflect that. The Steelers have wisely adapted and began airing it out a little bit more, much to the chagrin of the old school fans.

Tom Brady   

The Steelers have allowed the fewest yards through the air this year, but they also haven’t faced a QB like Brady yet. They had a similar ranking last year when Tom torched them for 350 yards and four total TDs. I would pencil him in for 300+ and 3 TDs this week. There is no QB I’d rank higher.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch  

Welker had 8 catches for 89 yards in Pittsburgh last year, and I think he’s a safe bet to approach triple digits and a score this week. Brach is a bit trickier. He hasn’t been seeing a ton of targets, but he has posted a pair of respectable statlines the past two weeks (7-74-1 and 3-69-0). I think you’ll see the Steelers use top corner Ike Taylor on Branch and try to bracket Welker, so Branch will probably have a hard time eclipsing last year’s numbers. He’s probably a WR3 or a flex play this week.

   

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Stevan Ridley/Danny Woodhead 

BJGE is the only player from this backfield I will feel comfortable starting for the next several weeks. The Steelers are historically tough against the run, but BJGE carved them up for 120+ total yards last year. Look for him to top 75 yards and put one in the end zone. The return of Woodhead puts a sizeable dent in Ridley’s fantasy value. Neither player is likely to see more than 10 touches in most games unless injuries press them into service, so you’ll want to keep both players on the bench for the foreseeable future.

Rob Gronkowski/ Aaron Hernandez

Gronkowski has taken some heat in the media this week for posing for shirtless photos with porn star BiBi Jones. I’d figure that the only beef his teammates have with the photos is the fact that Gronkowski was the one who was topless. Poor decision there, Gronk. I think he’ll make up for it with close to 100 yards and a score. Hernandez should create a matchup problem for the Steelers secondary as well, so don’t be surprised to see him visit the end zone with 60+ yards as well.

Stephen Gostkowski

The Steelers D should be good enough to stall a drive or two in the red zone. Expect the usual 1-2 FGs and 4+ XPs.

New England D/ST

The Patriots defense has shown signs of life the past two weeks, and they should force the Steelers to be one dimensional since Pittsburgh’s offensive line is in shambles. I’d rank the Pats D just outside the top 10 this week. Expect somewhere around 21-27 points allowed, 2-3 sacks and a turnover.

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With the switch to seven games, came a big turnaround in the standings.  Well, not such a huge turnaround, since I'm still in dead last by a sizeable margin.  However, the leader since the beginning of the year, Trevor, has officially been overtaken.  Stephen is now in front of the pack. 

With the bye week in full force, it's been rough finding high-profile, competitive games to add to our slate.  For example, we were stuck trotting out the 0-7 Dolphins in a matchup against the G-Men.  Still, you figure the Phins have to win one of these weeks, and if somebody picked them and timed it right, they would have earned themselves a nice boost in the standings.  However, none of us took that bait.  As a result, we have four deadlocked matchups.  The ones to watch this week are DAL @ PHI, SD @ KC, and MIN@ CAR.  There's multiple permutations of those three games among the five of us.  Odds are, one of us will nail all three picks and gain some ground in the game as we head towards the season's half-way mark.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
WAS @ BUF
DAL @ PHI
SD @ KC
JAX @ HOU
MIN @ CAR
MIA @ NYG
CLE @ SF
Last Week	3-4	5-2	2-5	5-2	2-5
Record	17-20	20-17	20-17	23-14	22-15