For the first time since 2007, the New England Patriots find themselves just sixty minutes away from getting back to the Super Bowl. First, they have to take care of business at home against a tough Baltimore Ravens’ team. Last Saturday, the Patriots made a statement to the rest of the league by playing great football in all facets of the game. Tom Brady had six touchdowns, including five in the first half and the defense neutralized Tim Tebow and the power option attack once again.

The Ravens survived their tough divisional round test against the Houston Texans. However, they are dealing with some inner turmoil, or as Ed Reed likes to call it “motivation”. A lot of scrutiny has been put on their quarterback Joe Flacco. People have said that he cannot win the big game unless he gets help from his dynamic running back, Ray Rice, and the dominant defense that has been the staple of the Ravens for the past decades. This game has a lot of hate, particularly the Ravens’ defense dislike of Tom Brady and all the calls he seems to get. They can dwell on the fact that they went into Foxboro two years ago and stomped on New England 33-14 in the AFC Wild Card round.

Let’s take a look at some keys for this crucial game this Sunday (3:00 EST, CBS):

1. A Branch off the Receiving Tree: If this key sounds familiar, I actually used the same one for last year’s Patriots-Ravens preview where I predicted a 23-20 overtime win. I do think Branch is, once again, the X-factor for this game. All the attention is being focus on the dynamic tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez as well as the speed of Wes Welker. However, we all know that Tom Brady loves to look Deion’s way as well, particularly on some key third downs. In his first game with the Patriots last season, Branch emerged as a primary target for the Ravens. He had nine receptions for 8 yards and a touchdown with 12 targets. Baltimore will have to watch out for Deion, particularly in the middle of the field because last week, Patriots’ fans saw on the 61 yard touchdown reception that he can still get yards after the catch.

2. Flustered Flacco?: The Patriots need to confirm what Ed Reed and the rest of the NFL saw last week. Joe Flacco did look flustered in the pocket and he was not getting the ball away quick enough to targets like Anquan Boldin and rookie Torrey Smith. I think Flacco is not going to play great, but he will not play horrible either. When you are repeatedly told you cannot do something in life, it just adds motivation and an extra chip on your shoulder. In last year’s matchup, Flacco was 27/35 for 288 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. I think he can have a similar game if the Ravens can get productive carries from Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. However, I question whether the Baltimore signal caller can get the ball into the end zone and make those key third down plays against a Belichick defense that has improved in those situations over the course of the year.

3. Dig Up Some Ground: A lot of people think that Tom Brady can carve up a Raven defense that only has Terrell Suggs as its main pass rusher. However, while I don’t disagree with that, I think the Patriots need to use some ground game to limit the amount of blitzes. Now, Stevan Ridley might not see much of the field this week after his fumble in garbage time against the Broncos. Keep this stat in mind: In last year’s game, the Patriots, as a team, ran for more yards (127) than Baltimore (98). I look for Danny Woodhead, BenJarvus Green-Ellis,and even Shane Vereen to try to provide some yards on first down to keep the defense guessing. Plus, Aaron Hernandez could be used as a rusher, just not as much as the Denver Bronco game after the head injury he suffered in the 4^th quarter.

PREDICTION: This has the feeling of a revenge tour for the Patriots and Tom Brady had that look in his eye last Saturday that he is going to make sure this team gets back to the Super Bowl. That being said, I think this game is going to stay close. The Patriots are favored by a touchdown in Vegas, but I could see this game being closer. Ray Rice might not run for 130+ yards, but he gets 80 or 90 yards on an average day (Unless offensive coordinator Cam Cameron decides otherwise). Flacco will get his yards, but the Patriots’ defense is going to step up in another big game and force Billy Cundiff field goals instead of touchdowns. New England’s balanced offense will book them a ticket to Indianapolis and Super Bowl 46.

PATRIOTS 27 RAVENS 23

Stephen went out on a limb last week by picking the Giants over the Packers, and his selection has guaranteed that he'll do no worse than a tie for first place in this game.  There are three games left, and four points available since the Super Bowl counts for double.  If the Niners win and Rick also nails the Super Bowl pick and Stephen doesn't, then we would have a tie.  Hopefully in two weeks, all five of us will be making the Patriots our Super Bowl selection and this will be a moot point. Without further ado, here's our Championship week selections.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
NYG @ SF
BAL @ NE
Last Week	2-2	2-2	3-1	3-1	2-2
Record	60-55	72-43	73-42	76-39	67-48

Below is a link to Rick and Stephen's show last night where they did an interview with Derek Arnold from BmoreBirdsnest.com talking about this week's game. The interview starts about 40 minutes in.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/whatsbrewin/2012/01/18/kickin-it-with-keeler

The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites as they host the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens.

“I'm sure if we win, I'll have nothing to do with why we won, according to you guys (the media).” – Joe Flacco

Does he have a point? Let’s see. His QB rating in 2011? 80.9, worse than Kevin Kolb, Matt Moore and Matt Hasselbeck. His completion percentage? 57.6, worse than Tarvaris Jackson, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton, and only slightly better than the gold standard of shitty, inaccurate quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez. Turnovers? Eighteen. Oh, and he also had the lowest yards per attempt in the league, worse than, well, everybody who took a snap this year. And this guy wants to complain about a lack of respect? Here’s an idea Joe. Go do something to actually earn some. And handing off to Ray Rice doesn’t count.

Horrific quarterback play aside, Baltimore still has several quality players on defense, and they had among the league’s best pass defenses in 2011. However, they haven’t faced a team that can attack the middle of the field like the Patriots. A healthy Ed Reed would make a huge difference against New England’s tight end tandem, but he’s currently dealing with enough injuries to kill four Laurence Maroneys. Brady won’t throw five touchdowns in the first half like last week, but the Patriots should be able to move the ball and put up a respectable number of points.

With that said, Ray Rice is a bit of a scary matchup for the Pats. I still have nightmares about him breaking into the open field on the first play of that Wild Card game. This edition of the Patriots defense is a bit more stout against the run, so I wouldn’t expect Rice to end up with 150+ yards and multiple scores again.

I like the Patriots to win, but I think the Ravens will cover the spread.

In the other game this weekend, the 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites as they prepare to host the Giants. After watching Eli and Co. light up the Packers last week, the betting public is going to be all over New York like a hungry dog on a meat truck. I’m not so quick to jump on that bandwagon. The Giants struggle on offense when they can’t run the ball, and the 49ers have the league’s best run defense. Alex Smith had transformed into an effective game-manager, and I don’t mean that in a negative sense. He turned the ball over 7 times all year (think about that … seven turnovers is what Mark Sanchez calls a great month).

The Giants D has been strong in recent weeks, but they are not great against the run. They also have to fight against complacency after knocking off one of the league’s most dangerous teams. I like the 49ers to win and cover the spread.

2010 ATS 25-17

2011 ATS 43-43-4 (I know, blech)

The Champion brought down the Messiah.

After a week of hearing how Tim Tebow was going to walk into Foxboro and confuse the Patriots defense, it was Tebow who was praying for an answer to the swarming wall of New England defenders.

It seems almost unfair to overlook Tom Brady’s six touchdown passes, including five in the first half, but it was the defense that stood out and stood firm against the unconventional and ineffective Broncos offense.

Less than a month after surrendering 167 rushing yards in the first quarter in their 41-23 win over Denver, New England looked like the Steel Curtain Saturday night, beating Tebow into the turf and holding him to 10 points.

With the 45-10 beatdown, New England will play the winner of the Houston/Baltimore game in the AFC Championship next weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s top performers.

1. Tom Brady: Despite an MVP-caliber season, there were many doubters who questioned whether Brady still had the playoff magic that fueled his championship success earlier this decade. By the end of the game, I doubt those doubters existed. Outside of a poorly thrown interception, Brady flawlessly picked apart the Denver defense, completing 26 of 34 passes for 363 yards and six touchdowns. The three-time champ hooked up with Rob Gronkowski 10 times for 145 yards and three first-half scores and made a beautiful deep throw to a streaking Deion Branch along the left sideline for a 61-yard TD. Safe to say the playoff magic is back.

2. Gronk/Hernandez: We’ve never seen two more productive tight ends and may never see so again. If Gronk is 1A than Hernandez has to be 1B. The two complement each other so well and literally can’t be defended at this point. Gronkowski simply outmuscles any safety or linebacker and is a red zone nightmare. Hernandez has become the focal point of the offense, lining up at running back, wide out, h-back, fullback and in the slot. The former Gator had 116 total yards including 61 on the ground. He did suffer a head injury late in the game, but appears to have escaped without anything serious.

3. Linebackers: While the secondary has been much maligned all season, the front seven has actually played pretty well considering the injuries that have plagued the unit. Linebacker Brandon Spikes’ return to the lineup has been invaluable as the second-year pro plays with unparalleled physicality and emotion. Spikes recorded six tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss and a pass defended. However, the true star of the linebacking corps was sixth-year man Rob Ninkovich. He’s become the new Mike Vrabel of the defense, coming up with timely turnovers while setting the edge in the run game. After a poor performance in the first matchup against Denver, Ninkovich dominated with five tackles (one for loss) and 1.5 sacks while showing great discipline on playing the option.

4. Defensive line: Despite losing Andre Carter and playing with big bodies mostly drafted/signed for the 3-4 defense, this group stepped up big time in a big game. Vince Wilfork tied Ninkovich with 1.5 sacks and veterans Shaun Ellis and Gerard Warren made two momentum-shifting plays. Ellis, who largely underperformed in limited playing time during the regular season, made a huge blindside sack of Tebow and Warren stuffed the fellow Gator for a huge loss before executing the signature Gator chomp. Mark Anderson had another great performance playing in a hybrid role.

After silencing Tim Tebowmania for a second time, the Pats are moving on to the AFC Championship game.

Tom Brady looked nearly perfect, going 26-for-34 with 363 yards, 6 touchdowns and one interception -- breaking or tieing quite a few NFL post-season records along the way.

Rob Gronkowski caught three of those Brady touchdowns, with Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, and Wes Welker catching one TD each as well.

Tim Tebow, on the other hand, looked nothing like he did last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was 9-for-26 with 136 yards and no touchdowns.

It was an overall dominant performance, and easily the best game of the season for the Pats. Offensively, Tom Brady and Co. couldn't be stopped. On the defensive side of the ball, the Pats played in the 3-4 all night and completely shut down Tim Tebow.

This playoff win was the first one since the 2007 season for the Patriots, as they hadn't won a playoff game since their Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants.

The Patriots are now 14-3 on the season and riding a nine-game winning streak. Next Sunday, the Pats will host the winner of the game between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans.

The Patriots will begin their run to get back to the Super Bowl on Saturday night when they take on the story that is sweeping the nation. Tebowmania hits Gillette Stadium as the Broncos are coming off their dramatic 29-23 overtime upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card weekend.

This is a re-match of the game that occurred on Week 15 at Sports Authority Field when the Patriots rallied from an early 16-7 deficit to win 41-23. That has been the problem for New England especially in the last four or five weeks. In the first half, their defense digs the offense into some pretty big holes. However, in the 2^nd half, everything seems to click again as the D forces a big turnover or two to catapult the offense. By the way, if you follow me on Twitter, you will see when I predict the turnovers. Also, in the first game, the Broncos keyed in on Rob Gronkowski by putting two defenders on him. With New England’s two tight end formations, this allowed Tebow’s college teammate, Aaron Hernandez, to make a huge impact with nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown.

Here are my keys to the Saturday Showdown in Foxboro:

1. A Royal Exit: All the attention in the Broncos’ receiving corps has gone to Demaryius Thomas. Thomas was the receiver who caught the eighty yard touchdown on the first play of overtime to win the game on Sunday. In Week 15, Thomas was Tebow’s leading receiver with seven catches for 116 yards. However, with the injury to Eric Decker, Denver will need another target to help out #15. I would look for Eddie Royal to be the guy Patriots’ fans should watch out for both on offense and special teams.

Royal has battled injuries for most of the season and did not play a huge factor in Week 15. However, on Sunday, he had three catches for 49 yards and a touchdown on the 22 yarder from Tebow in the 2^nd quarter. With Decker out, New England will need to pay attention to Royal to make Tebow one dimensional in the passing game. Plus, don’t discount Royal’s punt return ability. After the first matchup, the Broncos cut Quann Cosby for muffing a punt and taking a kick out of the endzone to cost them field position. Royal can change field position and even take one to the house, since he has an 85 yard return for a TD in a 38-24 win against the Raiders on November 6^th.

2. Turnovers For Tebow: We all know by now about Tebow’s journey as he took a 1-4 team and led them as the starting quarterback to this point in the postseason. So, what exactly is Tebow’s kryptonite? You have to make him cough up the football. In the second quarter, the Patriots, in Week 15, were able to accomplish that. It all started with an essential strip of the ball by Mark Anderson to set up the game. Tebow had five interceptions in his last five games which led to his lack of confidence in the Chiefs’ game. New England got 13 points in the 2^nd quarter off of Denver turnovers in Week 15. In Foxboro, the Broncos will have to play a turnover-free game to keep up with a high-powered offense, something they have not been able to until last week against a banged up Ben Roethlisberger.

3. A Balanced Attack: People think that the only way the Patriots are going to win this game is if they throw the ball fifty times with their best asset. While that could be the case, I think they need to create similar balance with both pass and run to what they did in the first matchup. The playcalling in that game by offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien was 34 passes and 36 runs. This allows Brady to use the play action pass downfield to his killer tight end weapons in Gronkowski and Hernandez. The key will be rookie Stevan Ridley. Ridley, in the last three games, is averaging 70 yards per game on the ground. With the “Law Firm” not producing like he did in 2010, the third round pick out of LSU needs to pick up the load so New England can avoid third and longs in order to get those quick scores.

PREDICTION: There are so many storylines and so much buzz about this game amongst the national media. It was added to it during the week when the Patriots added former offensive coordinator and ex-Broncos’ head coach Josh McDaniels as their offensive assistant for the playoff run and eventually taking over the OC job from Bill O’Brien.

As to what I think will happen in this game, I think this will be a close game. The one thing I am concerned with for New England is although they have come up with some timely turnovers the last few games; they have to stop digging themselves in ten point holes so early in the game. Denver can run and run a lot as we saw with their 167 rushing yards in the 1^st quarter back in the first game. I think the Broncos hang around for three quarters. Usually, that means Tebow Time will bring doom for New England. This week, I think that changes. Tebow turns the ball over late as the Patriots get their first playoff win since 2008.

PATRIOTS 31 BRONCOS 20

The last time the Patriots won a playoff game, Tim Tebow won the Heisman and I was midway through my junior year of high school.

Now, I’m a junior at the same school that Tebow starred at and he’s the man who stands between the Patriots and the AFC Championship.

While my buddy Ricky Keeler will give us his game preview Friday, I’ll be taking a look at some of the individual battles to watch from a scouting perspective.

Here are my top five one-on-one matchups to keep an eye on Saturday night.

1. Matt Light (LT) vs. Elvis Dumervil (RE): Following the 2010 season, Matt Light’s tenure as the Patriots longtime left tackle seemed to be over. When he didn’t generated the interest in free agency and the lockout prevented first-round pick Nate Solder from being game-ready, the Pats made a shrewd move in bringing back the reliable former second-round pick. Despite his age and lack of elite physical skills, Light had one of his best seasons in his career, shutting down the likes of Dwight Freeney, Brian Orakpo and Tamba Hali during a tough stretch. Dumervil

wasn’t able to replicate his 2009 season when he led the league with 17.5 sacks, but has racked up 10.5 sacks in his last 12 games. Because of his lack of size (5-foot-11, 260 pounds), Dumervil plays with leverage and quickness. He had a nasty sack on Brady in the Broncos 41-23 loss and is one of the few threats to stopping the Patriots attack.

2. D.J. Williams (WLB) vs. Rob Gronkowski (TE): Williams tends to get overlooked by many fans, but he’s been a mainstay in Denver since he was selected in the first round in 2004. He has experience playing all three linebacker positions, but has settled in on the weakside now that Von Miller is in the fold. Williams is one of the more athletic linebackers in the league and may be asked to jam and cover Rob Gronkowski all day at the line of scrimmage. The former Hurricane actually did a solid job at this in week 15 (with safety help), but expect Belichick and offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to find ways to get Gronk some free releases. Gronkowski has a sizable advantage over Williams (6-foot-6 vs. 6-foot-1) which will be difficult to stop in the red zone.

3. Mark Anderson (DE) vs. Ryan Clady (LT): Clady has been one of the best left tackles since entering the league in 2008 as the 12^th overall selection. He has incredible size (6-foot-7, 330 pounds) which enables him to be an excellent pass blocker. Clady outweighs the quicker Anderson by over 70 pounds, giving him the advantage in the run game. However, Anderson usually only plays on passing downs which keeps him fresh and allows the Patriots to maximize his pass rush skills. If the Broncos want to hit the long ball, they’ll need Clady to give Tebow time in the pocket.

4. Champ Bailey (CB) vs. Wes Welker (WR): This matchup will be a fun one to watch as two of the best in the business try to get the upper hand. Bailey is the wily veteran who’s made more Pro Bowl appearances than any defensive back in NFL history. Welker has revolutionized the slot position and put together one of the finest seasons in team history with 122 catches for 1,569 yards and nine touchdowns. Bailey will probably be assigned to cover the 5-foot-9 jitterbug while Andre Goodman should draw Deion Branch. Bailey still has great athleticism, but Welker is such a tough cover because of his excellent route running and after-the-catch ability. There has been talk that Bailey might also cover Aaron Hernandez if he’s lined up as a wideout, so keep an eye on that.

5. Kyle Arrington (CB) vs. Demaryius Thomas (WR): When Josh McDaniels took Thomas over Dez Bryant in 2010, fans and draft analysts were left scratching their heads. After all, Bryant was a dominating talent at Oklahoma State who drew comparisons to Michael Irvin and T.O. while Thomas was simply a deep threat in a wacky offense. Flash back to last week – Thomas owned the Steelers secondary while Bryant was watching the playoffs at home. The former Georgia Tech star has an incredible size/speed combo and is getting better as a route runner. He burned the Patriots for 116 yards on seven receptions and caught four for 204, including the game-winner against Pittsburgh last weekend. Lining up on the left side of the formation, Thomas should draw Arrington, who led the NFL in interceptions. Arrington certainly had a solid season, drawing Pro Bowl consideration, but Thomas is both bigger (6-foot-3, 235 pounds vs. 5-foot-10, 196 pounds) and has better long speed.

Things are getting very interersting down the stretch.  Stephen managed to maintain a 3 game lead over Jason, but by outpicking everyone in the Wild Card Round, Rick was also able to creep within three games.  Stephen made a bold prediction this week by going with the Giants over the Packers.  If the G-Men don't come through for him, his lead will dwindle down to two with three games remaining.  If both the Giants and the Saints lose, then Rick will have made a late surge and crept within a single game.

It's not over yet...

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
NO @ SF
DEN @ NE
HOU @ BAL
NYG @ GB
Last Week	1-3	2-2	3-1	2-2	2-2
Record	58-53	70-41	70-41	73-38	65-46

This week, Rick and Stephen got together for another podcast.  As part of the show, they interviewed Kim Constantinesco from Predominantlyorange.com about Tebow and the Broncos.  Click the link below to listen to the show!

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/whatsbrewin/2012/01/11/kickin-it-with-keeler