There's nothing quite like the first week of the NFL season.  It just... feels... so...  good...

Like many of the other weekly features here on Foxboro Blog, our Top 12 is back and ready for action.  For those of you who are new to the site, the reason why we choose to go with a Top 12 is multi-factorial.

#1 - Ranking all 32 teams is too time consuming, and nobody cares who the 26th best team in the NFL is.

#2 - Twelve teams make the playoffs each year, so assuming one conference isn't completely lopsided, examining the Top 12 teams should give you a pretty good idea of how the teams likely to meet in January will stack up.

#3 - It's Tom Brady's number!

#1 - New England Patriots

It's my rankings and I'll be a homer if I want to. But seriously, outside of the Baltimore area, you'll have a hard time finding someone who won't concede that the Patriots were the best team in the AFC last season.  They were a Gronkowski injury away from being the champs. The Pats restocked the defense, and got Tom Brady a legit deep threat in Brandon Lloyd.  Bill Belichick has plugged the holes that held back the team last season.  In 2012, if the O-line can hold up and there are no major injuries, teams are going to have an extremely difficult time slowing down the Patriots.

Last Week: N/A      Change: N/A       Record: 0-0       Next Game: @ Titans

#2 - Green Bay Packers

The Packers are a bit of an enigma to me.  The won the Super Bowl in 2010 when they probably shouldn't have and then flamed out in 2011 when they should have gone all the way.  I'm not sure what that says about them. If all goes according to plan, they should be there in the end facing off against the Patriots.  The 1-2 slots in this ranking could go either way, and honestly, so would Super Bowl XLVII if both these teams can make it there.

Last Week: N/A      Change: N/A       Record: 0-0       Next Game: vs. 49ers

#3 - Houston Texans

This is the team that scares me the most in the AFC.  They can throw, run, and play D.  The big question is whether or not they can stay healthy.

Last Week: N/A      Change: N/A       Record: 0-0       Next Game: vs. Dolphins

#4 - Baltimore Ravens

I feel like the Ravens have taken a small step backward with the loss of Suggs and guys like Ray Lewis getting one year older.  That being said, they are clearly legit title contenders and the Week 3 matchup against New England will likely be the toughest contest of the regular season for the Pats.

Last Week: N/A      Change: N/A       Record: 0-0       Next Game: vs. Bengals

It’s officially the year of the youth movement at running back for the New England Patriots.

For a position that’s usually featured reliable but aging veterans, this season should be a breath of fresh air.

Second-year man Stevan Ridley appears poised to be the lead back now that BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in Cincinnati.

Although “The Law Firm” never put the ball on the ground, he also lacked dynamic playmaking ability at a premium spot, making him expendable now that the Pats have re-stocked the position over the past year.

In fact, Bill Belichick devoted two high draft picks on running backs in 2011, selecting Shane Vereen with the 56th overall pick before taking Ridley at 73.

Surprisingly, Ridley has grasped the starting spot, displaying a burst uncharacteristic of a player who many draft experts pegged as a possible fullback.

Because of his size (5’11”, 220 pounds) and slashing style, Ridley offers a more dynamic skill set than his predecessor and could quickly develop into a quality NFL starter.

While Ridley quickly asserted himself as a NFL-caliber starter, Shane Vereen’s struggled to make an impact despite his draft pedigree.

The former second-round pick basically redshirted his rookie season after dealing with a nagging hamstring injury, and although he looked decent in preseason action, he’s once again dealing with another injury.

For a player who was heralded for his speed and cutting ability, I didn’t see elite quickness from Vereen in the preseason.

Considering his draft status, it would be a disappointment if he didn’t at least contribute on third downs, but at this point the jury is still out on the former California Golden Bear.

For a team that once carried Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk on the same roster, it’s funny to think Danny Woodhead is the veteran of this year’s group.

The diminutive fifth-year pro provided a sparkplug in 2010 before fizzling out a bit in 2011.

Woodhead makes his money as a pass-catching back who utilizes his elite quickness to make defenders miss. However, his size limitations and lack of power negate his ability to be a true contributor between the tackles.

With Green-Ellis gone, the Patriots may have found his replacement in fellow Ole Miss alum Brandon Bolden.

Checking in at 5’11”, 220 pounds, Bolden is a one-cut runner who exhibits good power through contact. He struggled mightily as a punt returner and probably won’t be used in the passing game. 

It’ll be interesting to see whether he garners any goal-line snaps as his size could be an asset.

Unfortunately for Patriots fans seeking an Olympic performance, running back Jeff Demps won’t be on the field till 2013. The team placed him on injured reserve after suffering a bone bruise.

The former Florida Gator and Olympic track star possesses game-changing speed and could be the team’s starting kick returner in 2013.

Overall, the running back group certainly isn’t elite, but there’spromise. Ridley should be an above-average starter and should finish with over 800 yards and eight scores.

Hopefully Vereen gets healthy before he gets lost in the mix, otherwise he’ll be squarely on the roster bubble next season.

With an offense predicated on the tight ends and Wes Welker, the running game just needs to be efficient when called upon, and with Ridley leading the way, it should be solid enough in 2012. 
 

Continuing on with our look at the Patriots 2012 schedule and predictions, here is my take on Games 9-12 of the season...

Week 10:  vs. Buffalo Bills

In the handful of years where the Bills have come out to a hot start, this is generally around the time when they fall right off the cliff.  The Bills are really going to have to show me something before I pick them to win on the road in New England, something they have failed to do since November 5th, 2000.

Record: 8-1

Week 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts

Brady vs. Luck I.  I expect a much improved effort from the Colts this year, but I just can't see them toppling a team like New England, on the road to boot.   As for the whispers I've been hearing about whether the Patriots would consider trading Brady for Luck (purely a hypothetical argument to spark debate), I have to lean firmly on the "keep Brady" side.  I see the argument for Luck's longevity compared to Brady's, but sometimes you have to strike while the iron is hot.  These next 3-4 years are the Patriots time to make a run, and you don't trade that for a "maybe".

Record: 9-1

Week 12: @ New York Jets

Odds that Tim Tebow will have started at least one game by this point in the season?  95%

Odds that Tim Tebow will be starting this game?  65%

Odds that Rex Ryan will scream profanities from the sidelines while sweating butter?  101%.

Record: 10-1

Week 13: @ Miami Dolphins

I don't like this.  I do not like this.  Miami has a penchant for sucking it up all season and then tripping up a streaking Patriots team late in the season.

Just not this year.

Record: 11-1

The NFL season is just around the corner and that means it's time for the third rendition of Pick 'Em here at Foxboro Blog.  In 2010, when the blog was a three-man affair, Jason took home the title.   Last year, Stephen came on strong down the stretch to claim the 2011 title.  This season, we've replaced Trevor with newcomer, Raj, for another five-man battle royal.  Who will claim the championship belt this year?  Two words for you...

Not me.

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
DAL @ NYG
BUF @ NYJ
SF @ GB
PIT @ DEN
CAR @ TB
SD @ OAK
CIN @ BAL
Last Week	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Record	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

If there’s one position on defense with the most volatility it’s by far the cornerbacks.

Based on talent, the group should be much improved.

But in the NFL, talent doesn’t always win on Sundays.

Headlining the cornerbacks is third-year pro Devin McCourty. The former first-round pick struggled mightily in 2011 after earning a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie.

A former standout at Rutgers, McCourty brings a solid size and speed package to the field and is noted for his work on special teams.

Last season, he looked sluggish and battled through some injuries. His inconsistent coverage skills at corner, combined with a lack of depth, resulted in a late-season move to safety for McCourty.

By all accounts, he’s looked improved this offseason, although there haven’t been any glowing reviews. The team desperately needs him to be good, not even great, this year.

Although Kyle Arrington tied for the league lead with seven interceptions, it appears Ras-I Dowling—the top pick in the second round last year—will start on the outside.

This is an encouraging sign for the second-year corner, as he lost most of his rookie season to a hip injury.

Dowling brings excellent length and ball skills, although he doesn’t have the same speed prior to his injury.

At 6’1”, 210 pounds, he has the physical skills to develop into one of the league’s better corners.

Rounding out the top three is Arrington. Now in his fourth year in the league, he has quietly ascended into one of the better players on the defense.

Last season, he displayed good ball skills (seven picks, 15 passes defended) and racked up 88 tackles.

His quickness and size make him better suited for the slot, but he should definitely be on the field a lot this year.

The other two corners listed on the Patriots roster include special teams demon Marquice Cole and seventh-round draft pick Alfonzo Dennard.
Cole doesn’t see a lot of snaps on defense, but is a big part of the kicking game.

However, Dennard is a guy who could find himself on defense, provided he recovers from a hamstring injury suffered early in training camp.

Although he went in the seventh round, Dennard was projected to be a day-two pick based on his talent and production at Nebraska.

His hopes of getting drafted early were derailed with a postseason arrest and a poor showing at the Senior Bowl.

Many draft analysts lauded the Patriots for taking a flier on Dennard, and the former Cornhusker could pay big dividends in the near future.

Overall, the Patriots didn’t upgrade significantly at a position which many people thought was their weakest last season.

The team appears to be banking on a rebound year from McCourty and improved health from Dowling. I’m not 100 percent sold on either, but if both corners play up to their potential, the pass defense could take a tremendous leap forward in 2012.   

Continuing on with our look at the Patriots 2012 schedule and predictions, here is my take on Games 5-8 of the season...

Week 5:  vs. Denver Broncos

It's Brady vs. Manning XIII.  But as everyone is well aware, this time Peyton Manning will be playing for the grown-up horses instead of the ponies.  The Patriots laid the smack down on Denver twice last season, one being in historical fasion during the AFC Division Round.  However, these ain't Tebow's Broncos.  I expect Brady to bring out the best in Manning and for this to be a close contest.  Had this been in Denver, I would've been tempted to peg this as a potential loss.  However, I think Brady will want this one badly, as will Josh McDaniels.  I'm backing the home team on this one.

Record: 4-1

Week 6: @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is one of the toughest road venues in the league, and the Pats have to only look back to 2008 to remember how close they nearly came to falling to a 2-10 Seahawks team.  Sandwiched between the Peyton Manning and the Jets, this one has all the trimmings of a classic trap game.  In the end, I have to believe that Belichick won't let his team fall into it.

Record: 5-1

Week 7: vs. New York Jets

You have to be able to score a touchdown to win a football game, right?  All kidding aside, you can be sure that Rex Ryan and Tony Sparano will be throwing the kitchen sink at the Patriots in their first meeting of the year (that is, assuming the Jets locker room hasn't entirely imploded by then).  Who knows what we'll see in this game...

...Other than a complete smack down and Rex Ryan drowning his post-game sorrows with some gravy fries.

Record: 6-1

Week 4: @ St. Louis Rams

New England is undefeated in Old England, and I expect that situation to remain the same after the Patriots travel across the pond to face the Rams.  Based on the 2011 standings, this one is about as lopsided as they come (until Week 11 at least).  Expect a Week of Super Bowl XXXVI reminiscing and a victory for the Pats.

Record: 7-1

It's that time of year again, where I take a look at the upcoming slate of 16 games for the Patriots and make a game-by-game prediction.  I've done this exercise the past two seasons, predicting an 11-5 record for the team in 2010 (actual outcome 14-2) and a 15-1 record in 2011 (actual outcome 13-3).  Overall, I've been relatively close, but I'm not sure that actually means that I was any good a predicting, considering the Patriots' record has largely been between 10-6 and 16-0 for the past decade.  As long as you stay in that range, and skew towards the middle, you're almost bound to be near the target. 

But at any rate, this is more of a fun exercise and a look ahead at what's to come, then a measure of my football accumen, so let's get to it!

 

Week 1:  @ Tennessee Titans

The Patriots have been astoundingly good in season openers, winning all but one of their previous ten (2003 to Buffalo).  Given the fact that the Titans will be trotting out Jake Locker, who will be starting in his first regular season NFL game, and the Patriots will be sending out Tom Brady, I'm giving the edge to the Patriots here.  Make it 10 out of 11.

Record: 1-0

Week 2: vs. Arizona Cardinals

Yet another game that should make Patriots fans very thankful for their quarterback situation.  The Cardinals don't appear to be quite sure who will be tossing the ball for them when they roll into Foxoboro for the Patriots' home opener.  The Cards don't have a ton of luck when traveling to New England.  Thankfully for them, it should be a balmy September afteroon this time and not the blizzard they faced during the team's last meeting in 2008.  Although the weather may be better, I'm not expecting a different outcome this time around.

Record: 2-0

Week 3: @ Baltimore Ravens

This is the grandaddy of them all for the Patriots in the regular season - a rematch of last season's AFC title game.  You can be certain that Baltimore is still smarting from missing out on that Super Bowl trip and will be hungry to hand it to the Patriots.  With two playoff meetings in the past three years, and some epic regular season battles scattered in between, there is certainly no love loss between these two teams. 

This is a game that I believe the Patriots should win on paper.  I honestly believe that the 2012 Patriots are more talented than the 2011 Patriots.  I can't say the same thing for Baltimore, who appears to have taken a step back.  However, will the Patriots be able to walk into one of the most hostile of road environments against a quality team thirsty for blood and pull out a win? 

I'm sorry, but this one just wreeks of the typical early-season letdown game that seems to plague the Patriots lately.   The Miami wildcat game in 2008, the Jets in 2009 and 2010, and the 21-point collapse to Buffalo in 2011. 

Record: 2-1

Week 4: @ Buffalo Bills

With the New York Jets becoming more and more of a circus each day, it could very well be the Buffalo Bills who become the Patriots main AFC East rivals.  The Bills landed a nice punch in the mouth in Week 3 of last season, and with the addition of Mario Williams to the fold, now possess a fearsome pass-rush that could have Brady scrambling all over the place if New England's offensive line woes carry over from the preseason. 

I predicted a loss for the Patriots earlier, and back-to-back losses for the Pats have become twice-in-a-decade events.  If the Patriots do manage to beat the Ravens, this could end up being a game that trips up New England, but I have to call for a W here.

Record: 3-1

More blog banter from a fantasy perspective. Enjoy the holiday weekend!
 

QB Tom Brady

If you're investing in Brady this year, he won't come cheap. In most drafts, he's going in the middle to late first round, usually the first or second QB off the board. He's a safe bet for another 4800+ yards and somewhere in the neighborhood of total 40 TDs. While the potential exists for an even greater season, I don't think he'll have much better than that due to improvements on defense and questions on the offensive line. Still, the advantage of having a great QB in fantasy is overwhelming, so he shouldn't disappoint those who draft him early.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Depending on the format, Welker will likely be among the top 10 WRs off the board and 25th-30th pick overall. Lloyd is slotted just inside the top 20 WRs, usually a 5th round pick. Welker's amazing 2011 season will be difficult to replicate with Lloyd stealing targets. I think he hauls in close to 100 balls for north of 1100 yards and 7 scores. Basically a reliable break-even option for those who pay for his services in the 3rd round. Lloyd is tough to project in his first year working with Brady. I think a conservative estimate is around 55 catches for 900 yards and 6 TDs. I like him as a weak WR2 or strong WR3 in most formats. He offers reasonable upside in the late 5th or early 6th of most drafts.

RB Stevan Ridley

Ridley looked explosive in the preseason and handled a solid majority of the work with the first team offense. Belichick's wishy-washy history with RBs tempers his projected value among most experts, but count me as extremely bullish on The Riddler this year. The Patriots figure to be protecting a lot of leads, and the ridiculous number of weapons in the passing game should leave plenty of open running lanes. I think he has the potential to put up 1000 total yards and 10 or more TDs. If he meets my expectations, he offers upside of a top 10 RB at the cost of a 6th or 7th round pick. He's one of my favorite upside plays among all NFL players this year. There's a slight risk that he loses the job if his ball security isn't up to par, but for the potential numbers he could put up in a starting role, he's well worth that risk. He could warrant first round consideration in 2013 drafts.

 

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Last year, Gronkowski had the best season by a TE in NFL history. As such, he's now going in the 2nd round of most 10-team drafts. That is uncharted territory for the TE position, which rarely gets a call before the 5th round of most drafts. I expect a bit of regression from Gronk this year because of the presence of another viable threat on the outside and Hernandez carving out a larger role in the offense. I think Gronk finishes with around 75 catches for 1100 yards and 10 TDs. Look for Hernandez to finish just a tick below in the 55-900-8 range. Given the option between the two from a value perspective, I greatly prefer Hernandez in the 5th round to Gronkowski in the 2nd.

When my son was born during the 2010 NFL Season, I would joke that Aaron Hernandez was his favorite Patriot.  I thought Hernandez was a fitting choice for him since they had a lot in common, seeing as he was both the youngest player in the league at the time and Hispanic.  However, during the 2011 season, I often wondered if I had picked the wrong player for Luke to have as "his guy".  After all, Hernandez had a bit of a bad rap coming out of college, has tons of tats, and while he had a good outing last year, his play on the field paled in comparison to that of fellow tight end, Rob Gronkowski.  Would Gronk have been a better choice to have my son look up to during his formative years of Patriots fandom? 

After a fair amount of press for shirtless dancing and parties with adult film stars, it became clear to me that Gronkowski was not a great choice either. Still, I wasn't completely sold on Hernandez. I didn't have a good feel for his character, there was some questions about his durability, and I wasn't sure if the Pats would be able to retain him long-term given the large deal they doled out to Gronk. When we made a family sojourn to Foxboro this past summer, I was having a tough time deciding whether to buy Luke his second Brady jersey, or to go with a Hernandez. (As it would turn out, the only options for 1 year olds in the Pro Shop were Brady or Gronkowski jerseys, so Luke will be rocking #12 for the third year in a row.)

Don't get me wrong, there was never anything "bad" about Aaron Hernandez.  I just wasn't sure that he should be my son's "guy".  I didn't have a firm reason to back him over a guy like Tom Brady, or Wes Welker, or Vince, or Mayo... 

The Patriots opened as 2-point favorites as they travel to face the Giants in the final game of the preseason.
 

I’ve resigned myself to the fact that I cannot watch this game. I realize that this revelation is a stark reversal from my usual modus operandi of ogling every snap of Patriots football as if it’s a Kardashian-on-Kardashian-on-Kardashian sex tape (coming to video stores near you in 2014 when that brood starts to come to grips with their precipitous loss in public interest … just wait and see). But I know that just as I am settling into this game and dissecting what players might be on the roster bubble based on their playing time and performance, that analysis will be rudely interrupted by replays from February that we’d rather not see. ‘Tis better to pretend this game never happened than have my still-beating heart ripped from my chest all over again. It’s too early in the year for that sort of stress. That can wait until at least Week 3.

Speaking of pretending that a game never happened, that has been Belichick’s philosophy in the final preseason game over the past seven seasons. The Patriots are 2-5 in the fourth preseason game, and they really tend to mail it in when they play meaningless games on the road. The score in this game couldn’t matter less. This matchup is all about evaluating players to fill out the roster and avoiding injuries. If we see starters, it will be for a maximum of two drives, and I find even that possibility remote (if we throw Brady out there and he gets hurt, I’m pretty sure half of Patriots Nation will hurl themselves into a volcano).

 I’ve picked against the Pats in each of the first three preseason games with great success. Why stop now? I’ll take the Giants and the points.

2012 Record 3-0

2010-11 Record 76-66-4