Vince Wilfork and the Pats are hungry for a win...

After last week’s chaotic game with the Baltimore Ravens and the replacement officials, the New England Patriots will look to avoid their first three game losing streak in a decade on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. There has been a lot of negativity surrounding this Patriots’ team, particularly after blowing a 13-0 lead and a 30-21 lead late in the 4th quarter to Baltimore. This game Sunday is also a revenge game for New England after they blew a 21-0 lead to the Bills in a 34-31 loss at Orchard Park last September.

The Buffalo Bills are a team that a lot of prognosticators picked to be one of the Wild Cards in the AFC. They got off to a bad start to the year when they gave up 48 points to Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets in Week 1. However, they have improved in their last two games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns. This game will be a tough task for the Bills to show they are for real in the AFC East, especially with both of their running backs less than 100%.

With that, here are my keys for Sunday’s Game:

 

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QB Tom Brady

After a few weeks of mediocre performances, I think this is the week that Brady really breaks out. The Bills defense is vulnerable to the pass, giving up 6 TDs through the air in games against the Jets, Chiefs and Browns so far this year. Expect Brady to pull out one of his “you’re going to win your fantasy game no matter what” games out of the hat by putting up 350 yards and 3 scores this week.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch

You’re starting both Welker and Lloyd this week if you have them. Welker has 29 catches and 332 yards in his last four games in Buffalo, so he is a safe bet for 6+ catches and 100 yards. Lloyd appears to be building greater chemistry with Brady every week, and he’ll have a chance to exploit that vulnerable secondary to the tune of 7 catches, 125 yards and his first long TD. I also included Branch this week because he should see more playing time with Edelman nursing a hand injury. If you are truly desperate, you could do worse. He should see around 4-5 targets, and Brady could look to him in the red zone.

RB Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead

It was a surprise to see Woodhead get the majority of touches and vulture a rushing TD last week, but that was likely an issue related to personnel packages since the Pats ran out of the shotgun most of the night. I think Ridley will be back to his normal 15-18 touches this week against a Buffalo front 7 that is improved from last year, but  stillvulnerable to the run. I’m counting on 80 yards and a TD. In what should be a stats bonanza, I wouldn’t bet against Woodhead racking up 40+ yards and a possible score as well. He’s becoming interesting for deep leaguers.

TE Rob Gronkowski

Gronkowski had an extremely quiet night in Baltimore, but he’s been a Buffalo killer throughout his short career (7 TDs in four career games). With Hernandez still sidelined, look for Gronk to break out of his funk and top 100 yards receiving with a score. The potential exists for even more.

New England Defense/Special Teams

This is a tough one to project. The Bills have looked pretty good on offense through two games, and they’ve done a good job of limiting mistakes. They are getting the ball out of Fitzpatrick’s hands quicker, giving up only one sack on the year. But if the Pats jump on top of the Bills early, they could force a lot of mistakes. I think a conservative estimate has the Pats giving up around 24 points with a sack and a turnover turnovers. A bullish estimate is somewhere around 13 points with 5-6 combined sacks and turnovers. It all likelihood, the numbers will fall somewhere in the middle.

Week 3 ended up fairly even across the board, in spite of some large variation in our picks.  Everyone ended up either 5-2 or 4-3, continuing the very tight race.  This week, the picks seem to be more similar amongst our contestants with four of the seven contests garnering unanimous votes.  .

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
SF @ NYJ
TEN @ HOU
SD @ KC
PHI @ NYG
OAK @ DEN
MIA @ ARZ
CHI @ DAL
Last Week	4-3	5-2	5-2	4-3	4-3
Record	11-10	13-8	12-7	13-8	7-14

What am I supposed to do with these rankings after the complete debacle that was Week 3 of the NFL?  Do I take into account which team won or which team should have won? I have no idea. The best thing I can do is take a cue from the replacement ref - throw a yellow flag, make a completely arbitrary judgement call, and hope that I screw over each team evenly so it all sorts out in the end.

#1 - Atlanta Falcons

The top two spots could go either way right now.  In my heart, I think that Houston is probably the better team.  However, based on what we've actuall seen, I think the Falcons convincing victories over KC, Denver, and San Diego hold a little more weight than Houston's victories over Miami, Jacksonville, and Denver.

Last Week: 4      Change: +3      Record: 3-0       Next Game: vs. Panthers

#2 - Houston Texans

The Texans have had a fairly easy road thus far, and guess what?  It's not getting that much harder.  The Pats are going to have to run off a serious streak of wins, including their Week 10 match-up with the Texans if they plan on winning the AFC's top seed.

Last Week: 3      Change: +1       Record: 3-0       Next Game: vs. Titans

#3 - New England Patriots

Call me a homer if you must. I don't care if they are 1-2. The Patriots don't deserve to be.  It took a series of bad breaks (a tipped interception, a blocked punt, a missed field goal), an atrocious holding call, a major injury to Aaron Hernandez, and some sub-par play for the Pats to fall to the Cardinals.   It took an entire game of piss-poor officiating for them to lose to Baltimore.   The lost both games by a combined three points.  Give me this team on a neutral field, with real refs, against any team, and I'd pick them to win every day of the week.   They might not win every day of the week, but I'd like their chances to.

Last Week: 6      Change: +3       Record: 1-2       Next Game: @ Bills

#4 - San Francisco 49ers

I try to avoid killing teams in the rankings for bad days, but Sunday was a really, really bad day.  Losing a tight game to an inferior opponent happens.  Getting the smack down laid on you is gonna drop you a good amount.

Last Week: 1      Change: -3       Record: 2-1       Next Game: @ Jets

The Patriots opened as 4-point favorites as they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in Week 4.

One of the keys to picking games against the spread early in the season is identifying trends and figuring out whether they are sustainable. The Bills are 2-1, and a big part of their only loss was turnovers. So do the numbers back up their record? Is this a team primed for a run this year? Can they beat New England again at home?

Nah. Had you going there for a second, didn’t I?

Remember what I said about trends? Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the league in TD passes, but he’s averaging less than 200 yards passing per game. He’s been sacked once all year. Those trends won’t continue. They also have a trend of watching RBs go down with crippling injuries. Being a Bills running back this year has been more dangerous than being an ice road trucker. They’re down to Tashard Choice. That’s never a recipe for success. Ask Dallas.

It’s hard to argue that the Bills D hasn’t improved with the addition of Mario Williams, but it’s kinda in the same way that a flattering dress improves the appearance of a fat chick. But seriously, they were atrocious last year. This year, Buffalo’s defense ranks 23rd in scoring and in the bottom half of the league against the pass. And that’s after facing quarterbacking luminaries such as Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel and Brandon Wheedon.

The line is skewed a bit toward the Bills since Buffalo has won two straight while the Patriots have lost two straight, as well as the fact that Buffalo beat the Pats last year in an early-season home game. Of course, that was a turnover-driven win that won’t happen again. I’m taking the Pats and laying the points.

Other Lines I Like...

Does this look like a successful field goal to you?   Remember: for the kick to be good, the entire ball needs to be contained within the vertical plane created by the outer edge of the goal post.

I've been all over this like Kevin Costner on the JFK assassination.  This is your grassy knoll and puff of smoke. Yes, it's still an incredibly close call, and these angles aren't perfect, but more and more evidence is mounting that the Ravens missed that kick.  And for those of you still in doubt, let me ask you this:  You've seen tons of shots and angles where it looked like the kick missed.  How many have you seen where it looks like they actually made it? 

Interesting...

In the worst officiating debacle since the 1972 Munich Olympic Games when incompetent game and table officials literally robbed the United States men's Olympic basketball team of a gold medal, the National Football League became the laughingstock of professional sports when on-field replacement officials and league-employed replay officials botched a last second call on a "Hail Mary" pass by Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson which was clearly intercepted by Green Bay Packers defender M.D. Jennings. The botched call and the absolute farce that followed, resulted in a 14-12 Seahawks win over the Packers in a game that will be discussed for weeks and weeks, especially if it ends up having an effect on the playoff positioning for the Packers.

The controversy began when officials overlooked a blatant offensive interference call when Seattle's Golden Tate leveled Green Bay's Sam Shields as a 24-yard pass made its way towards the end zone as time expired and Green Bay leading 12-7 in a nationally cablecast Monday Night Football game on ESPN. Clearly, Jennings, the Packers' safety, leapt up and intercepted the ball, then fell to the end zone as Seattle's wide receiver Golden Tate attempted to grab and wrestle the ball away. As they fell in a pile up, the backfield referees scrambled to gain position to make a call. Inexplicably, one referee signaled a touchback (the call for an intercepted ball in the end zone) while another signaled a touchdown as he clearly viewed the ball in the hands of Jennings. The referee signaling the touchdown then over-ruled his colleague and the Seahawks fans and players burst into celebration as ESPN broadcasters gasp in disbelief.

To make matters worse, the play was put under review by league instant replay rules and the off-field officials were put in place to reverse the inaccurate decision made by their colleagues. With only the ‘eye-in-the-sky’ as a means to over-turning and correcting the bad call, the subsequent decision by the instant replay officials of the final pass but they, again inexplicably, agreed with the on-field call. 

Multiple media reports, reverse angles and basic common sense confirmed the NFL's worst nightmare as the ball was most definitely in the hands of Jennings, the defender, and the game should've ended as a 12-6 Green Bay victory.

The Seahawks and their home fans celebrated the victory as the dejected Packers left the field in utter disgust but, under NFL rules, the Seahawks were entitled to kick a PAT (point after touchdown). The game officials summoned the Packers back to the field while the Seahawks players and coaches continued celebrating their fortunate, albeit unfair, victory. Eventually, after returning to the field, searching through equipment boxes, locating game helmets and assembling 11 defenders, the Packers watched while placekicker Steven Hauschka kicked to the ball through the uprights to make the final score 14-12, Seattle.

After the game was ruled as a Seattle victory, social media sites and on-air sports commentators lambasted the replacement officials and the NFL, many calling it an embarrassment to the league, once thought-of as the model for efficiency and credibility in all of sports. Even the NFL’s owned and operated channel, the NFL Network, took the league to task.  ESPN was worse.

For the second straight week, the Patriots didn’t deserve to win.

I’ll admit the 24 penalties were egregious, atrocious, whatever you want to call them.

But let’s stick to strictly the X’s and O’s. In the end, the Patriots displayed much of what plagued them in 2011: a failure to execute in crunch time.

New England had several chances to ice the game and ultimately came up short. It’s tough to blame the loss on the offense considering they dropped 30 points on the Ravens on their home field. However, the defense proved to be a letdown, again.

Chandler Jones and the defensive line failed to record a single quarterback hit, let alone a sack. Devin McCourty got toasted by Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones just as much as he did by the officials. Kyle Arrington wasn’t much better.

Some would argue the Pats had the game taken away from them by the officials. I’ll concede there were some back-breaking calls and non-calls, but the Patriots still were in position to steal a monumental road victory.

But thanks to horrible coverage in the secondary, a nonexistent pass rush and questionable play calling on offense, the Patriots now sit at 1-2.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Brandon Lloyd: Tom Brady’s new weapon hasn’t made any splash plays, but he’s quickly earning his quarterback’s trust. Lloyd was masterful in manipulating Ravens cornerback Cary Williams, racking up nine catches for 108 yards. Hopefully Lloyd starts to use his speed and body control to make more plays down the field, but until then I’ll take Sunday night’s performance any day.

2. Wes Welker: For a guy who was supposedly being phased out of the offense, Wes Welker didn’t look like it last night. The ultra-quick, competitive slot man racked up eight catches for 142 yards, often acting as Brady’s go-to guy on third downs. Welker failed to find the end zone, but his knack for finding holes in the Ravens’ zone defense was critical.

3. Tom Brady: While a lot of people will say he was out-dueled by Joe Flacco in the fourth quarter, I still thought Brady put on a great showing. Tom managed to throw for 335 yards on 28 completions despite not having Aaron Hernandez in the lineup and losing Julian Edelman to a hand injury. With the running game basically nonexistent, it was a pretty gutsy effort by Brady in the controversial loss.

Fallers

1. Devin McCourty: Good corners are supposed to forget the last play and move on to the next one, but Devin McCourty appears to have forgotten how to play corner altogether. Despite a few passes defended, the third-year man can almost single-handedly be blamed for New England’s loss Sunday. A few of the illegal contact penalties called against him were complete B.S., but he wasn’t earning himself any leeway with the refs based on his often atrocious coverage. Besides getting beat in one-on-one coverage, his “tackle attempt” of tight end Dennis Pitta should be on the SportsCenter Not Top 10.

2. Josh McDaniels: For the second straight week, I thought Josh McDaniels royally screwed the offense over in key situations. His play calling to his point has me wondering what the hell he is doing. With the chance to put the game out of reach, and the ball within the 10-yard line, McDaniels called for two run plays. Both failed miserably, and despite having the best tight end on the planet, the third-down throw ended up being a quick out to Wes Welker, who was tackled two yards shy of the goal line. I understand Rob Gronkowski was needed to block, but giving him only two targets was a travesty considering the age and size mismatches against the Ravens’ safeties and linebackers.

3. Rob Ninkovich: Last season, Ninko was one of my unsung heroes on defense. This year, he’s gone missing. The former linebacker-turned-defensive end has generated zero pressure from his left end spot and has been a total non-factor in the run game. It’s about time the Pats pulled the plug on the once serviceable defender and give one of the young guys like Jermaine Cunningham, Trevor Scott or even Jake Bequette a shot. 

@BrandonSpikes55

Can someone please tell these f----ing zebras foot locker called and they’re needed Back at work !!!! #BreakingPoint

This is how you know the officiating in last night's game was bad - the New England Patriots actually acknowledged it.  Bill Belichick's teams are usually as tight-lipped and vanilla as they come, but after last night's screw job, the players couldn't help but vent.  Only Tom Brady managed to keep it under control and toe the politically correct line.  Belichick himself kept things under wraps in the post-game presser, but his actions immediately following the game spoke volumes. 

I realize that I've already gone off on one tirade last night about the officiating, but after tossing and turning until well past 2am last night, there is still some more that needs to come off my chest.  Feel free to ignore this if you don't want to hear the rest of the rant, but here goes...

I will fully admit that the officiating was bad all around.  The Ravens got screwed on a decent amount of plays themeselves.  However, when it comes to game-altering, drive-saving plays, it was the Patriots who got hosed time and time again.   Last night, I mentioned the egregiously awful offensive pass-interference call on Julian Edelman that killed a potential touchdown drive for New England.  That was just the tip of the iceberg for him.  What about the next play where Edelman was punched in the helmet multiple times by the defender without a call?  What about when Edelman was nailed in the head in the endzone early in the game without a whistle?  What about the Ravens first touchdown drive, where the Pats had them three-and-out, only to have the referee call pass interference on Jerod Mayo after Flacco threw the ball on the dirt?  What about the 27 times that Chandler Jones was horsecollared by Michael Orr? What about the two phantom illegal contact penalties on Devin McCourty to keep scoring drives alive? 

These are not botched calls that are in any way arguable.  Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth were pointing them out as well.   To quote Collinsworth after those two McCourty calls...

"Wow...     wow...     ...    ...Keep negotiating fellas."

"Apparently that referee has x-ray vision to be able to see that Devin McCourty was holding his jersey."

When it all was said and done, the biggest beefs that Baltimore had was that Ed Reed shouldn't have been penalized for his brutally dangerous hit on Deion Branch late in the game.  Harbaugh's 15 yard unsportsmanlike was pretty bogus as well.  The bottom line is that the referees were clearly being influenced by the feverish home crowd and the Pats paid the price. 

When the calls don't go your way, you can always do more to rise above them.  The Pats didn't get it done.  Still, it's hard for me to get on the defense for not stopping the Ravens multiple times on the same drive.  The Ravens are a top-notch team.  These aren't the Cleveland Browns that the Pats were playing last night.  They would stop Baltimore on third down, only to have the refs hand the Ravens a fresh set of downs with their flags.  It was no coincidence that last night, there were the most penalties that resulted in first downs in NFL history.  NFL history, folks.

And then on further review...

There's no way that last field goal was good.   The Ravens missed the kick and the refs missed the call.   Going to bed, I chalked it up to an impossibly close call that the refs gave to the home team.  However, this morning, I found out that my understanding of the rule was wrong.  I thought a field goal above the uprights was treated similarly to a touchdown, in that if the ball broke the plane of the uprights, even if it was just a small fraction of the ball, then it was a good kick.   If that was the case, then you could certainly sell me that a piece of that football passed inside the uprights, or at least that it was too close to definitively say either way.

However, that is NOT the way it works...

Rule 11 Section 4 Article 2 "The entire ball must pass through the vertical plane of the goal, which is the area above the crossbar and between the uprights or, if above the uprights, between their outside edges. If the ball passes through the goal, and returns through the goal without striking the ground or some object or person beyond the goal, the attempt is unsuccessful."

There's no way that the entire football was between the outer edges of the post. No way.