QB Tom Brady

The Jets defend the pass much better than they defend the run, and the Patriots are certain to exploit that weakness early and often. Even if the Pats lean on the run, I expect Brady to make the Jets pay with big plays off playaction. He won’t be airing it out 50 times this week, but he’ll still likely put up 275 yards and 2-3 scores.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden, Danny Woodhead

Bolden has been nursing a knee injury all week, so you’re starting him at your own risk. That opens the door for Ridley to plow through the Jets shoddy run defense to the tune of well over 100 total yards and 1-2 scores. If Bolden can’t go, Woodhead becomes an interesting flex player, as he could easily rack up over 60 yards in a supporting role.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

There should be no slowing down the Wes Welker train this week, as he should have no trouble racking up his 6-7 catches for 90 and a score this week. Antonio Cromartie will likely be covering Lloyd, and he also dinged his shoulder last week. I’d say he could slot in as a #3 WR this week, but shallow leaguers may well have better options. Given the amount of other mismatches the Pats can exploit here, forecasting anything more than 50 yards for Lloyd is optimistic.

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Gronk has a bunch of bumps and bruises, but it hasn’t slowed him down much. Both he and Hernandez (who practiced twice this week) should present enormous mismatches and will be targeted frequently. I think they’ll distribute around 130 yards and 1-2 scores fairly evenly, though I think it’s possible that Hernandez outshines Gronk by a slight margin.

New England Defense/Special Teams

The Jets have only given up nine sacks all year and turned the ball over 10 times. Against most teams, those stats would be enough to sit the New England D this week. But given the fact that Mark Sanchez is still Mark Sanchez, and considering the fact that they don’t have a viable NFL running back or #1 WR, I think it’s safe to play them this week as the Jets furiously try (and likely fail) to come from behind. Expect 2 sacks, 2-3 turnovers and a 50-50 shot at a defensive or special teams TD.

With ten games remaining, have the 3-3 Patriots played themselves out of a bye-week, or do they still have a real chance at catching the 5-1 Ravens or Texans for one of the AFC's top two spots?

Jason: Normally I'd be concerned, but both the Texans and the Ravens suffered ball-busting injuries last week. I'm not even sure if Baltimore will win their division without Webb, Lewis and Suggs. And even worse, Flacco is still healthy. If the Pats beat the Texans later this year, they'd only need to make up one more game. That's still doable.

Stephen: It's still far too early in the season to count out the Patriots. The Ravens suffered two serious injuries on defense, losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, and stars Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata are banged up, too. I expect the Ravens to fall back a bit because of the lack of depth on defense and I still don't trust Joe Flacco. The Texans have also been exposed as one-dimensional on offense and also suffered a huge injury in losing linebacker Brian Cushing. Don't count out Tom Brady and Co. just yet.

Raj:  They certainly still have a shot at one of the top 2 spots in the AFC. Granted, I won't give the Patriots the #1 seed. Houston can savor that all they want. But, Baltimore just lost 2 key players on defense for the rest of the season, Ladarius Webb and Ray Lewis. That creates a huge tear on the Ravens' D. While the Patriots won't play them again in the regular season, if New England keeps winning its games and Baltimore loses its ground (that's what everyone is predicting probably), then look for the #2 spot to go to the Pats. However, there are some quiet AFC teams that can pose a threat. Watch out for them Chargers!

Derek:  Before the Ravens had their myriad of injuries, I would have said the chances were very, very slim.   Yes, it's still early in the season, and yes, you have to believe the Patriots will find a way to get themselves in the mix, but realistically, the odds were highly stacked against them.

At 3-3, the Patriots are essentially three games behind Baltimore since the Ravens own the head-to-head tie-breaker.  If the Ravens finished 7-3 the rest of the way, the Patriots would have needed to go 10-0 to leap frog them in the standings.  That 10-0 finish would include wins over Houston and San Francisco, as well as a 6-0 record in the division, which the Brady/Belichick Patriots have managed to accomplish all of once in 11 seasons.  If the Pats lost a single game alone the way, suddenly, you'd need Baltimore to finish a pedestrian 6-4, which seemed highly improbable before they were hit with the injury bug. 

As for the Texans, you can argue that if the Patriots win their Week 10 match-up with Houston, they would only need to make up one other game along the way.  That's certainly possible, but again, you're assuming that New England wins against a very good team and manages to outplay Houston and their cake-walk of a division schedule. 

Prior to the Raven's injuries, I would have put the Ravens out of reach, and have guessed the Patriots would have needed to finish 9-1 or possibly 10-0 to overcome Houston.  Now with Lewis and Webb out, it's hard to say how the Ravens will respond.  If the Pats take care of business, the door had been potentially left open for them to sneak back to the top.  Still, it will take near perfection from here on out to do so.

In solidarity with our Patriots, all five of us decided to lose this week by one point, posting 3-4 records across the board.  The week we have three games on the slate that are split 3-2 amongst our panel, so it will be interesting ot see how it all shakes out.    I'm a Pittburgh/Buffalo/Jacksonville parlay away from taking the lead!

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
PIT @ CIN
TEN @ BUF
ARZ @ MIN
BAL @ HOU
SEA @ SF
DET @ CHI
JAX @ OAK
Last Week	3-4	3-4	3-4	3-4	3-4
Record	25-17	27-15	27-15	24-18	17-25

It's a quiet week for the Top 12, as eight of the top nine teams all walked away with wins.  That's not to say that there wasn't some mild shifting going on, but nothing overly stunning.   With a lot of the big dogs playing sub-par teams, there is room for some excitement next week if our Top 12 underpeform.

#1 - Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons enter their bye week as the NFL's lone unbeaten team.  Unless somebody pulls off a truly dominating or miraculous victory, they are nearly guaranteed to be holding onto this spot next week as well.. 

Last Week: 3      Change: +2      Record: 6-0       Next Game: Bye Week

#2 - New York Giants

The Giants showed why they are the defending champions in their pounding of the 49ers.  They don't bring it every week, but when they do, they are nearly unbeatable.

Last Week: 8      Change: +2      Record: 4-2     Next Game: vs. Redskins

#3 - Houston Texans

The Texans faced their first real test of the year and failed miserably.  They get their shot at redemption this week against Baltimore, with the winner holding complete control of the AFC.

Last Week: 2      Change: -1       Record: 5-1       Next Game: vs. Ravens

#4 - San Francisco 49ers

After Week 1, many were touting the Niners as unstoppable.  After a loss to the Vikings and another to the Giants, they look very stoppable.

Last Week: 1      Change: -3       Record: 4-2       Next Game: vs. Seahawks

The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites as they host the New York Jets in Week 7.

I'm not sure what I hate more right now: the Jets, or the fact that the Pats have found a way to lose three games in the last two minutes of the games by a combined total of four points. It’s probably still the Jets. But that question leads me to the main point of this article – the Patriots may be 3-3, but they could easily be 6-0 right now if they make three plays. Gostkowski makes the FG, the refs make the proper determination on Baltimore’s game-winner and they don’t muff that easy FG opportunity at the end of the first half at Seattle. Three plays away from being 6-0.

Meanwhile, the 3-3 Jets have a negative point differential, and they’re missing their top playmaker on both offense and defense. The Jets may have a .500 record, but it’s a marshmallow-soft .500. Like the kind that could collapse to 6-10, and nobody bats an eyelash.

Time to delve into the stats. Where to start, where to start … hey, how about Mark Sanchez? 27 other quarterbacks have more passing yards, including eight who have played one fewer game than the Jets. Defense, you ask? They’re giving up 4.7 yards per carry and 8 TDs on the ground, plus 6 more through the air.

I will very rarely be excited to give up 10.5 points to a team playing against a division rival. But based on personnel and the obvious edge in coaching, this is the kind of rivalry that Kobayashi has with hot dogs. I’m taking the Pats to win big and cover comfortably.

If you've kept up with Foxboro Blog, you'll surely relate to the continuing saga of a Foxboro-based Insomniac who dwells on the many things that keep a Belichickian awake at night as the schedule progresses into the second third of the NFL season. I've enjoyed sharing lists of the issues that have kept me at the highest levels of anxiety, similar to the state of destruction reached when New York Giants TE David Tyree used his noggin' to defeat the Pats in Super Bowl XLII. I trust you probably saw the archived editions and my listing of prior concerns. Here are my thoughts after Week 6:

Three Losses by Four Points: If there was ever something to keep an insomniac pacing the floors on Sunday nights, it's the fact the New England Patriots are 3-3 and have lost the tri-fecta of games by a total of four points. Recounting the misery, there was the 20-18 home loss to Arizona where Stephen Gostkowski duck-hooked a potential game winning field goal wide left to leave the Patriots short and with their first loss of the then-young season. The second loss came a week later, a 31-30 heart-breaker at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots looked listless in the fourth quarter and coughed up 10 points in the final 4:01. Then, Sunday's fiasco at Century Link where New England tossed away an easy first half FG when Tom Brady was called for intentionally grounding a ball and the subsequent ten-second clock run-off ended the half with the Patriots in possession on the Seattle three. At the time, New England seemed in control at 17-10. Little did we know.

In what's become a troubling trend, Tom Brady and the offense completely choked in the fourth quarter while nursing a comfortable lead. 

After throwing the ball at will in the first half, New England managed just six points during the game's final 30 minutes, blowing a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead. 

Although much credit has to be given to Seattle's rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, this loss wasn't on the defense. 

If the offense had done what it was supposed to do—what it was built to do—the Patriots would have stomped on the Seahawks' jugular and put the game out of reach. 

Instead, New England played not to lose and ultimately did. 

In a game that featured uncharacteristically bad coaching moments, untimely mistakes and horrific secondary play, let's take a look at this week's risers and fallers. 

Risers

1. Wes Welker, WR: If there's any doubt that Wes Welker is an elite receiver, erase it from your mind. Despite his Week 1 mistreatment, New England's slot machine has proven his worth ten times over. Even after taking some vicious hits by Seattle's monstrous secondary, Welker emerged with 10 catches for 138 yards and a score, cementing himself as the premier go-to guy in the game. 

2. Chandler Jones, DE: New England's top pick continued to shine on a defense that generally played well until the fourth quarter. Jones has been a one-man wrecking crew as a pass-rusher and leads the team with five sacks in just six games. Once considered to be a reach, Jones is the clear front-runner for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. 

3. Danny Woodhead, RB: Although Woodhead has never replicated his magical 2010 debut with the Pats, he's actually been an invaluable weapon for Josh McDaniels this season. He's not the fastest or the biggest guy, but he always manages to pick up key first downs due to his shiftiness and ability to fight for yards after contact. The diminuitive third-down back carried the ball four times for 25 yards (6.3-yard average) and caught five passes for 92 more. 

Fallers

1. Tom Brady, QB: At first glance, Brady's 395 passing yards and two touchdowns look great. Looking further, it was clear Tom was anything but terrific in Seattle. Because of the Seahawks' inpenetrable run defense, Brady as forced to throw the ball 58 times Sunday. With his team in position to put the game out of hand, Brady threw two critical interceptions and was called for two intentional grounding penalties. The weather certainly played a factor (as did Seattle's pass rush), but overall Brady failed to put the game out of hand—something that used to be automatic earlier in his career. 

2. Bill Belichick and the coaching staff: Belichick prides himself on preparation and in-game execution, but the Patriots lacked both in their one-point defeat. The offense didn't look in sync at all in the second half, as the running game was a complete non-factor. Belichick made some interesting changes on defense, moving Rob Ninkovich to linebacker and starting Jermaine Cunningham at left end, but it didn't make much of a difference. Coupled with the poor timeout management, and New England showed a complete lack of organization in the game's critical moments. 

3. Every Defensive Back: At this point, I'm at a loss for words. Every year the Patriots' biggest chink in the armor is their secondary, and every year we supposedly "upgrade" at the position. I've yet to see the fruits of that labor. Kyle Arrington was burned so badly that he was benched in favor of undrafted free agent Alfonzo Dennard—who sadly might be the team's best corner. Devin McCourty was strong in the run game, but you don't take a corner in the first round because he can tackle. New England's safeties, especially Pat Chung, are horrible at taking the proper angles to the ball and never seem to be in position to make big plays. Since 2008, Belichick has devoted first- or second-round picks in Terrence Wheatley, Chung, Darius Butler, McCourty, Ras-I Dowling and Tavon Wilson and has little to show for it. I'll never understand how he can be called a "defensive genius" if he keeps swinging and missing on the secondary. 

4. Pass Rush: The issues with the secondary go hand-in-hand with the play up front. Besides Chandler Jones, New England is getting NOTHING from the rest of its defensive linemen. After making a few plays as an interior rusher, Jermaine Cunningham was nonexistent as a defensive end. Vince Wilfork plays hard and is still one of the best defensive tackles in the game, but he isn't making game-changing plays like he did in 2011. None of the other linemen on this team get to the QB like Jones, which means teams will just start doubling him until someone else provides any semblance of pressure. 

The list of New England Patriots who aren't in my dog house right now is extremely short.  Unless you happen to play for the defensive front seven, or have the name Welker, Llyod, Hernandez, or Woodhead on the back of your jersey, I'm not too happy with you right now, and neither is the Patriot Nation.  Unlike the other two Patriot losses, I can't pin today's debacle on a blocked punt, shanked field goal, or replacement referees.  Today's loss boiled down to a lack of two things - brains and balls. 

Let's start with the lack of brains:

1. Clock management, or more appropriately, mis-management.   The Patriots caught a fortuitous break at the end of the first half when the Seattle punter muffed the snap and gave New England amazing field position and nearly guaranteed them three points.  The Patriots had two time outs and plenty of time to march down the short field to the end zone. 

So what happens?  Bill Belichick inexplicably runs down the play clock following a completion and calls a time out instead of just having the team huddle up and run a play.   By the time he called the timout, the Pats would have been better just spiking the ball if Belichick wanted a time out than actually calling on.   At that point, with 20-ish seconds, one time out, and having a first down, time was more important than downs.   If he really wanted to be intelligent, he could have called time out right away and left the Pats with 30+ seconds to run their final series.  

The Pats could have done anything there, but what they actually did and would have been in a better situation.  Call the time out right away, spike the ball, run a play  to gain some yards - but don't waste your clock AND the time out!  It was like Bill Belichick was channeling his inner Andy Reid or something.   Even if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he tried to call timeout right away but the refs ignored him, at that point, he should have just given up and let the Pats run a play. 

So as a result, the Patriots are crunched for time, fail to to make it into the end zone, and are left with zero time outs and six seconds at the cusp of the goal line.  Instead of settling for three easy points (which would have come in very handy today), they try to run one more play within the six seconds and Tom Brady ends up drawing a intentional grounding pentalty, triggering a 10 second run-off and ending the half.  Just to be clear, I don't have a problem with the Patriots trying to sneak in the touchdown with six seconds left.  That's just aggressive football.  What I'm upset about is the awful clock management that left them with only six seconds to run that play.

Just. Awful.

The Patriots are playing in Seattle today, which is unfamiliar territory for Tom Brady.  Finish the sentence:  The Patriots will win today if they...

Jason: ...create turnovers and play tough in the red zone. The Seattle D is strong at home, so I'm not expecting the offense to put up a ton of fireworks. The defense will need to show up if New England is going to escape with a win.

Stephen: ...handle Seattle's defensive line. Their group ranks as a top-3 unit. It's fast, physical and versatile. Red Bryant is a guy the Patriots went after in the offseason and is a beast as a 323-pound run-stuffing defensive end. Chris Clemons and rookie Bruce Irvin are lightning-quick pass-rushers who could give mammoth offensive tackle Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer fits because of their ability to bend around the corner. Brandon Mebane, Jason Jones and Alan Branch are a load to handle along the interior. This is definitely the best group the Patriots will have faced thus far, and New England will only come out on top if they can stifle Seattle's super group.

Derek: ...Keep Brady off the turf.  If Brady gets sacked eight times like Aaron Rogers did in his trip to the Northwest, it's going to be a long, ugly day for the Patriots.  The O-line has to protect #12 and allow him to work his magic with Wes Welker, Gronk, and Lloyd.  If Brady has time to throw, this should be an easy win for New England.  However, the flipside is that getting Brady the time he needs to throw isn't going to be easy at all.

I had a chance to interview Scott Robb (Twitter: @RealScottRobb), a content writer at SeahawkAddicts (the Seahawks blog on Bloguin).

Raj Vaidya: You were at the game against Carolina last week. While you did enjoy the win, what did you learn from the game and who impressed/disappointed you?

Scott Robb: I was most impressed with the way the Seahawks defense shut down Cam Newton. Newton threw for a career-low 140 yards last week against Seattle. As has been the case all season, Seattle’s rush defense was solid, limiting Carolina to just 82 rush yards, 42 of those by Newton.
 

I was disappointed with Russell Wilson once again last week. Although his performance was slightly better than in previous games, the rookie quarterback still made some unacceptable mistakes. I suppose 19-of-25 for 200+ yards and a touchdown isn’t that bad, but it isn’t great, either. The pick-six that Wilson threw also allowed the Panthers to make the game closer than it should have been.

I learned that the Seattle Seahawks are not going to make it deep into the playoffs with Wilson under center. While I do believe he is the quarterback of the future, he is certainly not the answer as of right now. Unfortunately, Seahawks fans are going to have to give him time to grow. I want immediate results as much as the next guy, but Seattle may have to wait a year or two before they are serious Super Bowl contenders.

RV: Is this a make-or-break year for Russell Wilson at quarterback? On a scale of 1-10 (10 being the highest), how much do you trust him?

SR: I don’t believe this is a make-or-break year for Wilson; rather, it is a learning experience. Wilson has the benefit of a strong running attack which helps him win games. Not to mention the Seahawks defense which is ranked number one overall in average yards per game. Anyway, in the next couple of years, Wilson will have what it takes to win on a consistent basis in the National Football League.

My trust in Wilson wavers from week to week. He certainly is not as bad as Tarvaris Jackson, but he’s no Tom Brady. Put me down for a 6. Wilson is too inconsistent week in and week out and has struggled with his decision making.

RV: Who should Patriots fans get a bit worried about on the Seattle offense with the exception to Marshawn Lynch?

SR: Look for TE Zach Miller to have a huge impact this week against New England. Up until last weekend, Miller was not heavily involved in Seattle’s offensive attack. However, against a Carolina D that ranks fairly low in passing situations, Miller was able to find plenty of open space at Bank of America Stadium. Miller had 3 catches for 59 yards against the Panthers--look for him to do the same this week.

RV: Seattle’s crowd has a big influence on the Seahawks’ performance, how might that affect the outcome of this match and what would the Patriots need to do to take the crowd out of it early? What do you expect the Patriots to bring on Sunday?

 SR: It is real tough to get the Seattle crowd entirely out of it. The Seahawks fell into an early ten-point hole against the Saints two years ago in the postseason. However, Seattle was able to come back and win in upset fashion largely due to the crowd. The Seahawks are 53-29 (.646) at home since their first season in the NFL--not too shabby.

 In order for the Patriots to gain an advantage over the hometown crowd, Tom Brady will have to lead an efficient drive to start off the game. By eating up time off the clock and gaining positive yardage (and points) on their opening drive, the Patriots can gain significant momentum and possibly carry that over into a victory.

RV:  This is a crucial game for New England as it will give them a chance to increase their lead in the AFC East. How big a game is this for the Seahawks and their fans and how might this affect their season in the coming weeks?

SR: This is an even BIGGER game for the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s only two losses this season have come against division rivals which, as well all know, come back to bite later in the year. It is imperative that the Seahawks win in order to keep the team confidence where it is. After knocking off the Green Bay Packers at home in week three, a win against the Patriots would be huge. Depending on how the Cardinals, 49ers, and Rams do this week, the Seahawks could find themselves in a four-way tie for first place with a win. However, with a loss, the Seahawks could be looking at a hole that is too deep to get out of.

RV: Albeit, the Seahawks did have a lucky win against Green Bay, however they did dominate teams like Dallas and Carolina. Do you still see them in the end winning the NFC West or is it too tough of a division to make a prediction?

SR: Right now, the NFC West is looking strong. If the Seahawks can continue to win, they have a chance at winning the division. However, it will only take one or two losses to knock any team out of contention in the NFC West. Regardless of whether Seattle wins the division or not, I expect them to be a playoff team this year. It all comes down to whether they can win consistently and in dominating fashion or not.

RV: Who wins and why? Score?

SR: Seattle wins. They have the home crowd behind them, a strong run game, and an elite defense. Not to mention, Cortez Kennedy will have his number retired in front of a sell-out crowd at CenturyLink Field--what better way to fire up the players? Tom Brady and the Pats will certainly make it tough on Seattle, but the Hawks will come out with a 24-18 victory.

Raj: Thank you, Scott. Good luck to your team this Sunday!

Scott: Thank YOU guys and I look forward to a great game!