That's two weeks in a row that I've finished in first place.  You see, I'm not such a horrible picker.  There have been many weeks where I've picked incredibly well.  There just happens to be some weeks where I completely fell apart (cough, cough 0-7).

But enough about me and my last place struggles.  This week is about Stephen, who extended his lead with a clutch pick of the Texans over the Bengals.  The man went out on a limb, one against four, and came out on top.  Now he's got a four game lead in the standings to show for it.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
PIT @ SF
CAR @ HOU
WAS @ NYG
DET @ OAK
NYJ @ PHI
BAL @ SD
MIA @ BUF
Last Week	6-1	4-3	5-2	6-1	5-2
Record	44-42	54-32	56-30	60-26	56-30

Ian Henson has been writing for or against the Denver Broncos since 1998, his reverse course started in television and ended up in blogging. For the conscious part of 28 years he has been a fan. Finally arriving this month in Denver via New York City, the reaction has been similar to Napolean crossing the Alps or Washington crossing the Delaware. The Broncos have been undefeated and remain unbeaten with Ian in attendance at Mile High. Ian is currently creating an internet based television network and runs a marketing & social media company out of Denver. he lives in Cherry Hills with his wife Gabriela and dog Bailey. You can catch him on game day in his Pat Bowlen uniform. Henson was featured this past Sunday as a cover story in The Denver Post (http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_19520701).

1. We know the hot topic in the NFL is Tim Tebow. So, let's get your original take on Tebow. Did you think before this year that he could be a successful quarterback in the NFL?

A lot of people tend to forget that Kyle Orton was demoted last season and Tim Tebow was the starter for the final three games. It really did not become apparent that Orton would be the starter until very close to the start of the season. At that point even players like Brandon Lloyd had stated that they had practiced all off-season planning on Tebow being the starter. This may explain Tebow's early over throwing tendency, as Lloyd can catch nearly anything.

As far as Tebow being a successful quarterback in the NFL, the 2010 game against the Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders kind of stood out as major indicators that he would be at the very worst an above average quarterback in the NFL. That being said, even with the current win streak one season is not a clear litmus test on a quarterback. At this point though the sky does seem to be the limit.

2. Which player on the Broncos' offense will have to have the better game for Denver to win on Sunday: Willis McGahee or Eric Decker?

Eric Decker has been a dead factor over the last few weeks; Willis McGahee having a good game would mean that the Broncos are winning time of possession and likely scoring more points. I think Demaryius Thomas will be someone that the Patriots defense will want to key on more so than Decker, but McGahee and Lance Ball can both pop a twenty yarder seemingly at will during some points of the game. no comments

The Patriots are six-point favorites in Week 15 as they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos.

For once, the pre-game show won’t be focused entirely on Tom Brady as Tebowmania is set to descend on Patriot Nation this week. Don’t be surprised if the media completely forgets that there are 15 other games to be played. The Broncos have won seven of eight and have escaped from some of the most difficult circumstances imaginable behind a quarterback who almost didn’t beat out Brady Quinn for the job of holding Kyle Orton’s jock in camp this year. While I’m among the folks who just smile and shake their head every time the Broncos pull out another Houdini act, I’m not buying the idea that this team is ready for prime time. Denver has feasted mainly on some of the league’s true bottom-feeders (Miami, KC, Minnesota, Oakland and a Bears team missing its starting QB and RB). Tebow may have a 7-1 record as a starter, but he also has a +2 point differential while playing against competition that might as well be plucked from Penn State’s early-season schedule. Tim Tebow is going to mature as a passer, he’s going to continue to improve, and he’s going to win more than his fair share of games for the Broncos. Hell, they may even win a playoff game this year (an act that could possibly cause a global Twitterpocalypse). But it’s foolhardy to suggest that he can hang with an elite team like the Patriots at this stage of his career. He has a high ceiling as an offensive weapon, but he hasn’t reached that ceiling yet. Not even close.

For all of Tebow’s strengths as a tough runner and a good decision-maker, his flaws as a passer (slow release, inaccuracy) play into the strengths of New England’s defense. New England’s defensive philosophy this year has been to keep everything in front of them and attack the football, and that extra split second on Tebow’s release can be the difference between a receiver hauling in an errant pass or the defender breaking it up. The Pats have done a decent job of stopping the run this year, and I’d expect New England to move a safety into the box on early downs to dare Denver to beat them down the field. Denver’s pair of big, physical receivers are not polished route-runners, so it’s easy to envision Tebow struggling to find running lanes while having to fit the ball into a lot of tight spaces. That is not Denver’s recipe for success.

It’s no secret that the Patriots have struggled against teams that feature a strong pass rush. The Broncos have recorded the fourth-most sacks in the league with 37 on the year, and they could create more than a few problems for the Patriots offensive line. However, it’s also important to note that the Broncos biggest pressure comes off the edge with DE Elvis Dumervil and OLB Von Miller. The Pats have struggled most against defenses that can generate a big push up the middle, and that has not been an area of strength for Denver. The Pats typically use their backs and tight ends to chip edge rushers, and Brady’s uncanny pocket presence allows him to help out his blockers by stepping up in the pocket to buy additional time. Denver has allowed 22 passing TDs with just 9 INTs this year, and it’s likely that Brady will have another efficient afternoon to put pressure on Denver’s offense.

I’m going to take a knee, bow my head to reflect on my record of correctly predicting the outcome of Broncos and Pats games this year, and then pick the Patriots to cover this spread with relative ease.

Other Lines I Like

Packers (-13.5) @ Chiefs

This should have been the second spread of the year to go above the 20-point barrier. Green Bay’s offense is breaking records; the Chiefs are having trouble finding the end zone at all. KC’s point output for the past six games: 3, 10, 3, 9, 10, 10. To put that in perspective, the Packers scored more points in 60 minutes of football last week than the Chiefs have scored since Halloween. The bookmakers dropped the ball on this one, and the public is going to make them pay. If you’re going to bet this one, do it early. Don’t walk to your neighborhood gaming establishment. The line might be -17 when you get there.

Lions (-1) @ Raiders

I shudder to think about the number of penalties that will be committed in this game. If these two teams go into overtime, the postgame show can double as the halftime show for the Sunday night game. This may look more like a fight in the prison yard than a football game. The Lions have underperformed in recent weeks due to dumb penalties and inexcusable mental lapses. They’re now playing the team that invented dumb penalties and inexcusable mental lapses.

Jets (+3) @ Eagles

This game is destined to be a fluky Jets win. On talent alone, this line is spot-on. But after watching Philly find new and creative ways to lose winnable games all season, it’s hard to get too excited about betting on them, particularly when they play a team that is well-versed in notching undeserved victories over the past 2-3 years. Philly has struggled against the run, and their speedy WRs don’t create as much of a mismatch for New York’s CBs.

Falcons (-11) @ Jaguars

I wouldn’t put too much stock in last week’s offensive explosion from the Jags. It was the first time they’ve scored more than 20 this season, and they were aided by seven Tampa turnovers and a compliant Bucs defense. The Jaguars have not travelled well this season (just 1-5 on the road), and the Falcons have played well at home. Jacksonville’s secondary has been a worse train wreck than a Kardashian marriage. Look for Atlanta to score early and often.

2011 Record ATS 35-35-3
2010 Record ATS 25-17-1

Perhaps nothing exemplifies the Patriots defense more than the four-lettered words dropped by Tom Brady during his sideline scuffle with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.

*&#* Frustration  *#*##

Outside of Brady’s careless endzone interception, the offense continued on its torrid scoring pace – dropping 34 points on a solid Redskins defense.

The problem however was the Redskins scored 27 themselves, including an embarrassing trick play where receiver Brandon Banks threw a TD to receiver Santana Moss with receiver-turned-safety Matt Slater trailing in coverage.

Without Pat Chung, the secondary has been stretched dangerously thin, and even an average quarterback like Rex Grossman moved the ball with ease.

While I’m not dismissing the fact the Patriots picked up their 10^th win, this victory gave little to cheer about.

Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Rob Gronkowski: No explanation necessary.

2. Jerod Mayo: On a defense full of question marks, Mayo is the one constant. While he isn’t in the class of Patrick Willis as an all-around playmaker or intimidator, Mayo is still one of the better linebackers in the league. The 2010 All-Pro led the team with nine tackles and chipped in with a quarterback hit and pass defended. However, it was his game-sealing interception that earned him a spot on the list.

Fallers

1. Entire defense: Giving up 293 passing yards is a given every week. But surrendering 170 yards on the ground is unacceptable. Redskins rookie Roy Helu looked like a young LaDanian Tomlinson on Sunday, making some impressive jump cuts and flashing excellent speed and quickness. With starting left tackle Trent Williams and tight end Fred Davis out of the lineup, the Redskins were short on playmakers…at least on paper. Instead, Grossman and the Skins exploited the soft zone defense between the linebackers and safeties. Not a good day to be a Patriot defender.

2. Devin McCourty: Boy has he fallen off a cliff. A year after being named a Pro Bowler as a rookie, McCourty can’t cover anyone. Donte Stallworth, who entered the game with a 10/111/1 stat line, burned McCourty for four catches, 96 yards and a score. DMC looks a step slower this year and hasn’t been a consistent tackler either. If he’s not on his game, this team has no shot when it comes playoff time.

3. Running game: Despite drafting two backs in the early rounds, the Patriots haven’t made much of an effort to get them on the field. And it’s not because BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Danny Woodhead are tearing it up either. While Washington ran the ball 34 times for 170 yards, New England managed just 79 yards on 20 carries including four scrambles by Brady. The adage about defense and a running game winning championships definitely doesn’t look realistic when it comes to the Patriots. Can they beat the odds?

Most Patriot fans probably have to feel bitter about last week. Despite going to 9-3 with a 31-24 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots led 31-3 going into the 4^th quarter, but gave up 21 points in the 4^th quarter to Dan Orlovsky of all quarterbacks. But as the old saying, a win is a win. Now, New England goes to the nation’s capital to take on the 4-8 Washington Redskins. With a win on Sunday, the Patriots will win ten or more game for the ninth straight season.

Washington got off to a great start to the season with Rex Grossman at quarterback by winning three of its first four games. Then, head coach Mike Shanahan switched to John Beck and the season went crumbling down. They do have some nice pieces there with rookie Roy Helu Jr. at running back and they have some nice pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and rookie Ryan Kerrigan. The one thing that will hurt Washington in this game is that their top tight end, Fred Davis, and left tackle Trent Williams are out the rest of the year due to violating the league’s substance abuse policy. However, is this a trap game for the Patriots with the Denver Broncos coming up next week?

Here are my keys to watch for at Fedex Field on Sunday:

1. You Say Goodbye, I say Helu: One of the things that Mike Shanahan has been good at is a head coach is taking an unknown running back and turning him into a success. We have seen Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary in the past, but slide in Roy Helu Jr. The fourth round pick out of Nebraska is starting to emerge at the position with 23 carries and 100+ yards in each of the last two games. The yards per carry is a huge thing to keep an on since Helu is averaging close to five yards per carry. Once again, you have to make the Redskins one dimensional without Grossman’s favorite target.

2. Carter Comes Home: An old Redskin returns home, but it is not Albert Haynesworth. It is Andre Carter. Carter made a huge impact in big games earlier in the year against the Cowboys and Jets, but has not been the same factor as of late. In the last three games, Carter only has .5 sacks. With the playoffs coming up in a month, New England needs to have their best pass rush into getting a groove. Without Trent Williams, the Redskins’ offensive line could be vulnerable for some sacks this week.

3. Record Breaking Gronk: With Laron Landry out for the Redskins this Sunday, the Patriots will be looking to stretch the field against a cut who thinks he should be cut in DeAngelo Hall. The guy to watch is Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots’ tight end is tied for the most touchdowns in a season by the tight end is thirteen. He would have had fourteen last week, but with Brady throwing him a pass behind the line of scrimmage, the touchdown was negated. Washington is thin in the secondary, so this is where Brady will finally have a 300 yard passing game for the second time in three weeks.

PREDICTION: Take a look at this historic note: The Patriots have never won a game in Washington in the history of their franchise! I think that changes this weekend. Keep in mind that if the Patriots win and the Chiefs stun the Jets at MetLife Stadium, New England will clinch another AFC East Division title. I look for Brady to throw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns in this one. I would like to see the run game get going after just fourteen yards from BenJarvus Green-Ellis last week. I like New England to avoid the trap and win comfortably.

PATRIOTS 31 REDSKINS 17

Tom Brady

Expect similar numbers to last week’s haul: close to 300 yards and 2 scores. Washington’s pass defense isn’t bad, and they should force the Pats to rely on quick passes since their pass rush generates a decent amount of pressure. Don’t count on more than 2-3 scores this week, but Brady at least offers a very safe fantasy floor.

Wes Welker/Deion Branch

Welker is seemingly always good for 7+ catches and 100+ yards. I think he’ll be right around his average in this game. I think the Patriots will focus on the short passing game, so this isn’t a contest that I’d try to get cute by playing Branch as anything more than a flex. Anything more than 4-40-0 would be gravy.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Stevan Ridley

I’ve made a serious effort this season, but I must admit that I really can’t make heads or tails of the Patriots backfield mess. BJGE is still the only back I trust out of the five backs who could receive carries in this game. He’s fresh after touching the ball just 6 times last week. I wouldn’t touch anybody else in this backfield with a 10-foot pole this week.

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez

I’m convinced that Gronk is some sort of alien who was sent to Earth for the purpose of scoring touchdowns and wooing porn stars. Count on him for 6 catches, 80 yards and a score. Hernandez continues to get consistent looks in the passing game, hauling in at least 4 passes in five straight games. I’d say he has a 50-50 shot of finding paydirt this week.

Stephen Gostkowski

2 FGs, 4 XPs.

New England Defense/Special Teams

The Washington offense will be missing its leading receiver and arguably its best offensive lineman due to suspensions. Fire away! Look for around 3 sacks, 2 turnovers and 14-17 points allowed.

Look who finished with the best record last week...

Ok, so it was in a 4-way tie with a mediocre 4-3 record, but I still was the best picker in Week 13, despite my over all record.  My goals for the remaining four weeks are two-fold:  #1 - get above .500, and #2 - Try to claw back within 10 games of our leader, Stephen.  I gotta at least make my final stats respectable. 

In other news, it's still anyone's game with the remaining four.  Rick and Trevor are only three games back on Stephen and Jason is only four behind.  The key match this week is HOU @ CIN, where Stephen went against the grain and picked Houston.  He'll either be farther out ahead or closer to the pack next week as a result.  Also worth noting is Jason's selection of Tennessee over New Orleans.  He's four games back, so it's a good aggressive move that could help him inch closer to Stephen.

Game	Derek	Jason	Rick	Stephen	Trevor
OAK @ GB
HOU @ CIN
NYG @ DAL
NO @ TEN
KC @ NYJ
BUF @ SD
CHI @ DEN
Last Week	4-3	4-3	4-3	3-4	4-3
Record	38-41	50-29	51-28	54-25	51-28

Once again, it's time for our weekly Q&A session with a blogger who covers the Patriots' upcoming opponent.  Up this week is Greg Trippiedi from Redskins Hog Heaven.  Here's what Tom had to say about the Skins and Pats leading up to Sunday's game.

1. This is something I have felt strongly about. When Washington started 3-1 and benched Rex Grossman for John Beck, I feel Shanahan tanked their season away. What were your thoughts on the move and do you believe the Redskins' future quarterback is on the rostet?

The idea that Mike Shanahan tanked the season for the Redskins probably isn't fair, in part because I think it assumes his motivation as head coach of the Washington Redskins is not to help the Redskins win games, but it's also not fair because it assumes that Mike Shanahan is a lot more clever than he really is.  I don't subscribe to conspiracies about the Redskins motives for this season.  I really just think that more Redskins fans and league observers need to look objectively at the Redskins situation.

2, With all the injuries to Washington at running back, how has Roy Helu Jr. looked to you? Is it because Shanahan does well with unknown running backs or is he just that talented?

Roy Helu is the best back on the Redskins roster.  Like (seemingly) every other position, the Redskins failed to correctly judge the talent on their own roster at this position, so Helu was sparingly used through the first 10 games of the season.  He tore up two pretty good run defense over the last two weeks, and has eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in every game he has started as a Redskin.  I think the Patriots defense will be wise enough to hold him under that mark this week, but that just means that he's become the feature player in the Redskins offense with three career starts under his belt.  Not too shabby.