If you're Bill Belichick and you get a phone call from the Colts offering to trade Andrew Luck for Tom Brady before today's game, do you make that deal?

Raj: I certainly would not. Yes I agree that Andrew Luck is the big story of the NFL these past few weeks and he has every right to have that publicity. However, I think it's too early to even think that he will be a great quarterback for the next decade. With that in mind, we already know Tom Brady is using whatever little gas he has left in him to get one more ring for the Patriots. They at least know they don't have to worry about a QB dilemma for the next year or two. Although, if the Colts wanted to offer Luck for Ryan Mallett and a couple of draft picks in 2015, hey, I say we take it! 

Stephen:  In a heartbeat. I love Tom Brady as much as anyone else and he's clearly the MVP of this team and this franchise, but Tom won't be around forever. He may only have four elite years left, but Luck is just scratching the surface of his potential. The Colts basically showed Peyton Manning the door for Luck and the Colts have a winning record. Throwing Luck into a talented team like New England would pay off now but also the future. 

Derek: This is such a tough question.  Obviously, my heart wants to say "no" and stick with the QB who has allowed me to experience three Super Bowl championships and countless other incredible moments.   My head, however, is greatly conflicted.  There are many days when I wonder what following this team will be like post-Brady if the Pats have some 6-10 seasons and are out of the playoff hunt.  Trading for Luck would essentially give Patriots fans a good shot at another 10+ years of dominance.  On the flip side, the Patriots are in the midst of a 3-4 year window where they should be title contenders.  Would I really want to give up these next few years while Luck learns the ropes?  We don't know how much longer Belichick will coach or what this roster will look like 5 years from now.  We could trade for Luck only to have the rest of our roster and coaching dip right as he hits his prime. 

In the end, I think I'd have to answer this question following the Patriot way of taking things one game at a time and not looking too far ahead.  Today, I'd rather have Tom Brady as my quarterback than Andrew Luck, and so I won't make that trade.

After a nail biting 37-31 win over the Buffalo Bills last week, the New England Patriots continue their homestand against an opponent they may see again come January. This Sunday, the Patriots welcome the 6-3 Indianapolis Colts to Gillette Stadium. New England comes in banged up with injuries to offensive lineman Logan Mankins, wide receiver Wes Welker and tight end Aaron Hernandez. Plus, reinforcements are just arriving in the form of cornerback Aqib Talib, who will be playing his first game with the Patriots since being traded from the Buccaneers at the deadline.

On the other hand, the Indianapolis Colts have been one of the feel good stories of the 2012 NFL season. They have rallied around the loss of their head coach, Chuck Pagano due to a leukemia diagnosis. It is great to see on a personal note that Coach Pagano is starting to feel better. Under interim head coach Bruce Arians, number one pick Andrew Luck has shown Colts’ fans that the moving on from Peyton Manning is a little easier than they thought. The defense is forcing turnovers as well, but can the Colts finally get that signature win on the road that the experts are looking for?

Here are my keys to this Sunday’s game in Foxboro:

QB Tom Brady

The offense has been hitting on all cylinders the past few weeks, and the Colts pass defense is pedestrian (15^th in passing yards allowed, but they’ve given up 15 TDs against just 4 picks). With the Indy offense expected to keep things reasonably close in this game, Brady should have no trouble racking up 300+ yards and 2-3 scores.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Welker could be primed for a huge game with a lot of the other elements of New England’s passing game feeling a bit gimpy. I’d be surprised if he ended up with fewer than 7 catches and 120 yards. Lloyd has fallen short of my projections for several straight weeks, and he hasn’t gotten a ton of looks the past few games. However, he has been targeted heavily in the red zone (two TDs against the Rams and two PIs in the end zone last week), so it’s tough to bench him. I wouldn’t project more than 75 yards for him, but I like his chances of finding the end zone.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead

None of these backs did anything to change the pecking order of this group last week. Ridley is still the lead dog and a good bet for more than 100 yards and a score, but Woodhead could push for a few more touches after Vereen shit the bed last week. I’d be willing to roll with Woodhead in a flex this week against a bad Colts run D and hope for 50 total yards, but Vereen is probably bench fodder for now.

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Gronk was an unexpectedly small part in the gameplan last week, but he still found the end zone. He’s a bit dinged up right now, but I think it’s safe to project 75 yards and a score this week. Hernandez was a surprise late scratch last week after suffering a setback late in the week, and he was limited in practice again this week. If he plays, he’s probably a safe bet to rack up 50 yards and a score, but you’ll need to check his status before putting him in the lineup.

New England Defense/Special Teams

The Indy offense has been above average with Luck under center, and he’s done an admirable job of protecting the ball and avoiding bad rookie mistakes. The line has also kept him upright for the most part. I wouldn’t expect more than 1-2 sacks and 1 turnover, and the Colts should have no trouble putting up north of 20 points. The Pats D isn’t a great option this week.

After some struggles early on, Devin McCourty came up with two huge turnovers last week against Buffalo.  Do you think the Patriots should keep him primarily at cornerback, or keep him at the safety position.

Stephen: Devin McCourty's position hinges on two other key defensive backs: Aqib Talib and Pat Chung. If Talib is able to fill that No. 1 corner spot and play at a high level, then the Pats can probably afford to keep DMC at safety and leave Alfonzo Dennard/Kyle Arrington to fill the No. 2 spot. However, the biggest key will be the healthy/effectiveness of Chung when he returns. He's been a big disappointment, and unless he turns things around the Pats should roll with a safety combo of McCourty and Tavon Wilson/Steve Gregory.

Raj: After a lot of uncertainty and lack of trust in Devin McCourty from Patriots fans, one big play shouldn't influence his role in the Pats' secondary. The interception against the Bills saved the game for the Patriots but I still think he should be at the safety position. I feel that his reflexes have been a bit sub par this season but he can still play! I say start him at safety and see what happens.

Derek: Assuming that Aquib Talib can perform at a serviceable level, I think the Patriots are better off with McCourty at safety.  Arrington, Denard, Chung, Gregory, and Wilson have all proved on numerous occasions that they are going to make mistakes and give up yards.  The key for the Patriots is making sure that those mistakes don't lead to dagger-through-the-heart-type plays like we saw in Seattle.  McCourty, while no means perfect himself this year, is probably the most reliable defensive back on the team.  If Talib performs well, then I feel much more comfortable forcing the opposing defense to make three twenty-yard gains with McCourty at safety, instead of opening up the possibility for them to make one big sixty-yard gain with him at corner.

The Patriots opened as 9-point favorites as they host the Colts in Week 11.

This line is a bit of a head-scratcher. The Colts defense typically alternates between quasi-competent and a little bit bad, so the Pats shouldn’t have much trouble putting points on the scoreboard. In that sense, 9 points isn’t a lot. But I’m starting to wonder if the bookmakers have ever seen New England’s secondary. That particular unit alternates between spilled milk and a cat pissing on a rug. I’m convinced that the best form of pass defense for the Patriots this year is prayer (“please let him drop it, please let him drop it, pleeeeease let him drop it…”).

Bill Belichick has a pretty good win-loss record against rookie quarterbacks, but Andrew Luck sure isn’t playing like a rookie. He hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of defenses the past three weeks, but he’s completed a crazy percentage of passes and avoided costly mistakes. If he keeps playing like a five-year veteran, the Colts are going to keep the pressure on Brady and the offense.

I do think the Pats will gut out a win here, but I think it’s overly optimistic to expect them to win by double digits. I’m taking the Colts and the points.

Other Lines I Like

Packers (-3.5) @ Lions

So remember what I said last week about the Lions heading in the right direction? Me neither. Let’s pretend that didn’t happen.

Eagles (+3.5) @ Redskins

The Eagles didn’t invent the concept of committing costly turnovers at exceptionally inopportune times, but they’ve sure as hell perfected it. I’m betting the absence of Mike Vick will turn out to be more important than the paltry amount of rushing yards he contributed.

After a wild Week 10, Raj has managed to wrestle the lead away from Jason.  Once again, the top four players are each separated from each other by a game.  Stephen has managed to cut his deficit to 9 as well and is picking up some steam with a 5-2 record last week.  We have four big games to watch as either Jason, Raj, or Rick could walk away with the lead depending on how those non-unanimous contests shape up.

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
NYJ @ STL
MIA @ BUF
GB @ DET
JAX @ HOU
SD @ DEN
BAL @ PIT
CHI @ SF
Last Week	4-3	3-4	5-2	4-3	5-2
Record	39-24	41-22	42-21	40-23	33-30

In what may be a first for the Top 12, all twelve teams remained on the board this week, but none of them held the same position that they did last week. Things are starting to get interesting as we get deeper into the season.

#1 - Houston Texans

I underestimated the Texans last week by ranking them under the Bears.  They not only proved me wrong, but they took back the top spot on the board thanks to New Orleans knocking off Atlanta. 

Last Week: 3      Change: +2     Record: 8-1       Next Game: vs. Jaguars

#2 - Atlanta Falcons

It was a good run at the top for the Falcons.  Now it's time to prove that they can perform in the post-season, which is really all that matters.

Last Week: 1    Change: -1      Record: 8-1     Next Game: vs. Cardinals

#3 - Green Bay Packers

Only one team has beaten both the Texans and the Bears, and that's Green Bay.  That's a pretty solid argument for them being #1 on the board.  Actually, I'm not quite sure why I'm sticking the Pack at #3 given that fact, other than out of respect for the total package put forth by Houston and Atlanta over the past 10 weeks.

Last Week: 5     Change: +2       Record: 6-3       Next Game: @ Lions

#4 - Chicago Bears

Losing a close game against a top tier team is nothing ot be ashamed of, even if the Bears have fallen flat during their two biggest games so far this season.  What's more concerning is possibly losing Jay Cutler if this concussion lingers. 

Last Week: 2      Change: -2       Record: 7-2       Next Game: @ 49ers

It's never easy against the Buffalo Bills. 

And if the defense doesn't tighten up, the road to the Super Bowl will only get tougher in the second half of the season. 

After executing a historic beatdown of the division rival earlier this season, New England looked poised for a similar result Sunday before it appeared Bill Belichick's squad was on the verge of yet another fourth-quarter meltdown. 

However, thanks to to cornerback-turned-safety Devin McCourty's late interception, the Patriots managed to escape Foxborough with a 37-31 victory over the feisty Bills. 

Offensively, New England moved the ball at will for most of the game, but injuries to starting offensive linemen Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly put the team in a tough spot late in the game. 

Still, the Pats, led by Tom Brady's two-touchdown day, hung 37 on the Bills' pathetic defense. 

Unfortunately, the Patriots defense was nearly as awful, as the unit surrendered 481 total yards, including 319 through the air. 

Earning their sixth win puts the Pats in the driver's seat for another AFC East crown, but there are still some gaping holes on this squad. 

Let's take a look at this week's risers and fallers. 

Risers

1. Stevan Ridley, RB: New England's No. 1 running back didn't match his 106-yard, two-touchdown performance against Buffalo in Week 4, but he still managed a very solid effort in the six-point win. Ridley carried the ball 22 times for 98 yards and found the end zone once. Although he had a few negative plays, it was a good effort for the second-year tailback. 

2. Danny Woodhead, RB: He'll never match his 2010 season in New England, but the lightning-quick chess piece is having a clutch year for the Patriots. Although he doesn't receive a ton of touches, Woodhead is maximizing his opportunities, and Sunday was no different. The former Division III star took his only carry 15 yards for a touchdown and caught four passes for 46 yards and a score. 

3. Sebastian Vollmer, RT: Another matchup against Mario Williams ended with the same result: domination. The 6'8" right tackle has been the best at his position this year, and for the second time this season the giant German dominated the NFL's richest defensive player. Vollmer limited Williams to just three tackles and no sacks in another vintage performance. 

4. Devin McCourty, S: Say what you want about McCourty's coverage skills, but the third-year pro has been the best defensive back all season for New England. Forced to move to safety because of injuries, McCourty has continued to make plays on the ball. His strip of Fred Jackson near the goal line and game-sealing pick were monumental plays. 

5. Jermaine Cunningham, DT/DE: When the Patriots took Cunningham 53rd overall in 2010, I'm sure they didn't envision him becoming their best interior pass rusher. Although the former Florida product hasn't exactly panned out as a 3-4 outside linebacker, he's carved out a valuable role as a subpackage rusher. Cunningham drew his team-leading fourth holding call and notched another sack in his limited snaps. 

There are going to be plenty of Patriots fans complaining about the defense tomorrow morning.  Once again, the Patriots allowed themselves to be carved up by a sub-par quarterback and came inches away from blowing yet another double-digit 4th quarter lead.  If you watched this team closely this season, you saw all the tell-tale signs of yet another disaster in the making.   For me personally, I sniffed it out early in the 4th quarter.  Seemingly all game, the Patriots were holding onto a 14-point lead, letting Buffalo cut it to seven, and then extending the lead back to 14 points.  However, the offense came up short late in the 3rd and had to settle for a field goal.  Suddenly, the Patriots were up only 10 and with Buffalo driving, I couldn't help but think that this was a "sucker's lead" for New England. 

Right then and there, I knew we would find out what this team is really made of.  Would they wilt again, just like they did against Baltimore, Seattle, and New York?  Or would this team rise to the occasion and either get the decisive score on offense or the big stop on defense?  The answer was a little bit of both.  The defense bent, but didn't break as Devin McCourty was able to force a fumble from Fred Jackson on the 1-yard line.  The Patriots offense then sputtered and went three and out.  Given their field position, it's hard to nail the offense for the lack of production there, although Welker did drop what would have, at worst, been close to a 1st down catch.  The Pats' D was subsequently carved up for a touchdown, which put Buffalo within three with over seven minutes left in the game.

Now it was time for the offense to shine and put this game away with a signature drive. A ten point lead here would have sealed the deal. In the past few weeks, this would have been three-and-out territory for New England.  Instead, Tom Brady and his crew chewed up nearly six minutes of game clock with a 14-play drive.  Unfortunately, they stalled in the red zone and were forced to kick a field goal which put them in the precarious position of only being up by six. 

At the time, the optimist in me was thinking that this was the perfect opportunity for the defense to display some growth and seal the game.   The offense had just proven that they could sustain a drive in crunch time, and now it was the defense's turn to prove they could get the crucial stop.  Needless to say, the optimist in me vanished pretty quickly as the Bills charged down the field through some porous defense.  Suddenly, with the Bills in the red zone, I'm looking at the clock with 34 seconds left and wondering if the Pats could get themselves into field goal range with their three timeouts.  Not good.   Not good at all.

And you know what was really not good?

Stephen: Based on their remaining opponents, the Patriots should go 6-2 over the second half of the season. The two foreseeable losses should come against Houston and San Francisco, although it's tough to count out our pesky division foes. The Dolphins could definitely present two tough games for New England, but I think the Pats make it to at least 10 wins, most likely 11, and win the AFC East.

Raj: I was hoping to have a better first half since not many predicted the Patriots to be 5-3. In fact, they really should be 8-0 because they've only lost their games by 1 or 2 points. However this schedule does get slightly tougher with a couple of opponents in the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. The rest should be fairly routine in my opinion. In fact I will be going to the Thanksgiving game between the Patriots and Jets in NJ and I expect to see a solid New England win. There will be some bumps in the second half but I predict the Pats finish 7-1 in this stretch. The loss I think will come on the road in Miami (because I'm predicting that the Patriots won't even try in that one).

Jason: Since I predicted the Pats would go 12-4 at the beginning of the season, I'm contractually obligated to predict a 7-1 record in their final 8 games. The toughest remaining games on the schedule are San Francisco and Houston, and both of those games are in New England. I like their odds to at least earn a split of those games.

Derek: The Patriots have swept the AFC East all of one time in Bill Belichick's tenure.  With the team currently 2-0 in the division with four games to go, an 8-0 finish would be a pretty bold call.   Then you have to consider that the Patriots still have the Texans and Niners looming large on the schedule, making such a call even bolder.  But you know what?  I'm feeling pretty darn bold right at the moment.  The Patriots were razor close to going 8-0 during the first half of the season and Bill Belichick's teams tend to play their best football in November and December.  I'm predicting that the Pats will match last year's 13-3 record by finishing perfect down the stretch .