The New England Patriots weren’t pretty last Sunday, but they were able to survive a tough divisional game against the New York Jets 29-26 in overtime. The defense gave up a ton of yards, but it was Rob Ninkovich’s sack and forced fumble in overtime that sealed the victory. Now, without tight end Aaron Hernandez, the Patriots will make a trip across the pond for an international football game against a tough defensive opponent. Will the Patriots find a way to close out games consistently starting this week especially with their bye coming up next week?

The St. Louis Rams have undergone a culture change under new head coach Jeff Fisher. Fisher’s team is 3-4, but has struggled to score on offense with quarterback Sam Bradford. They only average about 19 points per game and 315 total yards a game (28^th in the NFL). Their defense has a lot of good, young players like defensive end Chris Long (4 sacks) and linebacker James Laurinaitis (team leading 69 tackles). However, their claim to fame is in the secondary with former Titan cornerback Cortland Finnegan and rookie 2^nd round pick Janoris Jenkins.

With that being said, here are my keys for this London matchup:

1. He Givens and They Take Away?: We saw last week that Mark Sanchez was able to throw for over 300+ yards against this inefficient Patriots’ secondary. The defensive backfield took another hit this week as the Pats’ lost Ras-I Dowling for the season with a thigh injury. Now, the Rams are not known for their success in the pass game, but they may get their best receiver, Danny Amendola for this game after missing three games due to a shoulder injury.

However, I want to focus on another young receiver. His name is Chris Givens. Givens was a 4^th round pick this season by St. Louis out of Wake Forest. He has great speed which can be utilized especially in this matchup. New England’s secondary is vulnerable for the big play, which Givens has made a lot of. He has one 50+ yard reception in each of the last 3 games. This includes his game last week against the Packers where he had three catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. Givens and Brandon Gibson could cause nightmares for the Patriots even if Amendola does not play Sunday.

2. Flagging Finnegan: In the open, I talked about Cortland Finnegan and his impact on the secondary. He has a tendency to pester opponents’ wide receivers and draw penalties. That is his main role considering he has not had an interception since Week 3. If the Patriots cannot give in to his behavior, this could lead to New England extending some drives and getting second chances for touchdowns. I don’t expect the Patriots to have many personal foul penalties this week, but that could be a factor that gets overlooked.

3. Getting Buried In The Ground: Over the last few years, the St. Louis Rams have watched their star running back Steven Jackson going into a gradual decline. This year, Jackson has only averaged just a hair under four yards per carry.  Also, Jackson hasn’t carried the ball 20+ times since the opener against Detroit. To win this game, the Rams will need balance with their offense. To do that, Jeff Fisher is going to call on his rookie 7^th round pick Daryl Richardson (5.2 yards per carry) to make the down and distance manageable for Sam Bradford. Also, he will look to keep Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense off the field.

PREDICTION

This game is going to be a close one up well into the 4^th quarter.  The time change and the lack of Aaron Hernandez for the Patriots will produce a lack of rhythm with the offense. Without Hernandez, do the Pats go back to more carries on the ground with Ridley, Vereen, and Woodhead or will Brady take more deep shots downfield to ex-Ram Brandon Lloyd?

This is a Rams team that will hang in the game because of its defense! However, this is the same Ram team that got torched by Aaron Rodgers last week. St. Louis will have success on offense, but they will settle for field goals in the red zone with their rookie sensation Greg Zuerlein. Unfortunately, it will be one touchdown too few for the Rams as the Patriots will find a way to survive against a team that is 0-3 away from home.

PATRIOTS 28 RAMS 23

QB Tom Brady

Brady has been a solid performer in terms of fantasy points the past few weeks, but he hasn’t really gone on a soul-crushing scoring binge since the Buffalo game. I think that trend could continue this week with several elements of the passing game nursing injuries. I think Brady puts up around 300 yards and two scores, but projecting anything more would be overly optimistic. With that said, his three matchups after the bye are tasty, so if you don't currently own him, next week might be a good time to try to buy low.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead

This game sets up nicely for Ridley, but Vereen’s stellar play last week clouds the issue a bit. If you have a free roster spot, go add Vereen ASAP. I still expect Ridley to get at least 15 touches, 80 yards and a score, but it’s best to keep a close eye on the distribution of carries. Don’t be surprised to see Vereen sneak double-digit touches away from Ridley and end up with north of 50 yards. Vereen’s skill as a receiver also dings Woodhead’s value a bit, so I wouldn’t expect a ton of reps for him.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

Both players were limited in practice this week, but it appears as if they both will be on the field on Sunday. I’d count on Welker for his usual 6-7 catches and 100 yards. Without Antonio Cromartie tailing him this week, I expect Lloyd to bounce back in a big way and haul in 6 balls for 90 and a score as well.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Hernandez has been ruled out for this week, which opens up the door for a big game out of Gronk. Expect him to haul in a score to go along with 80+ yards.

New England Defense/Special Teams

I hit the nail on the head predicting a TD for this unit last week, and I’m going to roll the dice again and predict another solid point total. Bradford has been sacked 21 times already this year and is averaging about 3 sacks absorbed per game. While he’s done a better job with ball security this year, it has been an issue for him in the past. I’m expecting the Rams to put up around 16 points with 4 sacks allowed and 2 turnovers.

Last week was a solid week across the board, as all five panelists came away with a winning record.  Jason managed to go 6-1 and took control of the game.  At the moment he has a one game lead on Raj, and a three game lead on Ricky and myself.  The big games to watch this week are Miami at New York and Indianapolis at Tennessee, as both are split 3-2.  Also worth noting are the against the grain picks of Philly by Rick and Dallas by Raj.  Will going out on a limb pay off big-time or backfire?

Game	Derek	Jason	Raj	Rick	Stephen
MIA @ NYJ
IND @ TEN
ATL @ PHI
WAS @ PIT
NO @ DEN
NYG @ DAL
SF @ ARZ
Last Week	5-2	6-1	5-2	6-1	4-3
Record	30-19	33-16	32-17	30-19	21-28

The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites as they travel to London to take on the Rams.

Pip pip, cheerio! (do they say that in London, or am I making that up? it's my column, so we're going to say that they do) The Rams aren't great at anything, but they aren't particularly bad at anything either. It's a bit tough to get a read on them since most of their games have come against other inconsistent teams. Among their opponents, the closest standard of comparison to the Patriots is probably the Pack, and Green Bay beat them by 10. St. Louis is also missing their top receiving target, which can only be good news for a secondary that couldn't cover Jeremy freakin' Kurley last week.

Like other contests played across the pond, this game is likely to come down to one major factor -- coaching. Players are going to be dealing with a messed up body clock, weird food and strange gangly-toothed easy women. Or is that France? Meh, they're both European, so it's probably all the same. And then there is the language barrier; the British language is unintelligible to most Americans. On top of all that, they'll be playing on a field that is completely foreign (see what I did there? Foreign? Because they're playing in a different country? That's right, high-brow stuff here). I trust Hoodie to keep his players focused and largely STD-free. I'm taking the Pats and laying the fish and chips.

Other Lines I Like

Saints (+6) @ Broncos
Every time I feel bad about our secondary, I make my self feel better by looking at the New Orleans D. They are just awful. But even as bad as they've been, all of their losses have been one-score games. I'm sure they'll find a way to lose this one too, but they should at least keep things close.

Bears (-7.5) vs. Panthers
The Carolina defense isn't very good, and they have an offense to match. They get a bit too much respect from oddsmakers since Cam Newton is on 10% of all fantasy teams. They haven't moved the ball at all against good defenses, and Chicago's D might be the best in the league. Swallow hard, close your eyes and embrace the fact that you're betting on Jay Cutler.

2012 Record ATS: 17-8
Record ATS Since 2010: 88-74-4

This week's edition of the Top 12 features a few small changes from last week.  There was some shuffling around of a few spots, and a new team at the #12 spot to replace the Cardinals, but no major rises or falls.  I'm heading to London this week with the Patriots, so there will not be a Top 12 next week.  I hope you all find a way to manage over the next 14 days without a dose of my completely arbitrary rankings.

#1 - Atlanta Falcons

Somtimes, the best thing you can do is not play a game.  The Falcons did nothing in the past seven days to make me respect them any less.  They keep the top spot this week. 

Last Week: 1      Change: 0      Record: 6-0       Next Game: @ Eagles

#2 - Houston Texans

If the Texans had pulled off a win like that against a non-decimated Ravens team, then that may have been a reason to bump them back up to #1.  However, a win over a decimated Ravens team is only good for a one-spot bump.

Last Week: 3     Change: +1      Record: 5-1     Next Game: Bye Week

#3 - Chicago Bears

When the season started, I thought my Top 5 of San Fran, Green Bay, Houston, Baltimore, and New England would be nearly untouchable.  How wrong was I?  Here come the Bears, not only breaking the Top 5, but planted firmly in the middle of it.

Last Week: 5      Change: +2       Record: 5-1       Next Game: vs. Panthers

#4 - New York Giants

The G-Men pulled out the win, but a true #2 team shouldn't have needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Skins.  Thus the drop to #4.

Last Week: 2      Change: -2       Record: 5-2       Next Game: @ Cowboys

For the fourth time in just seven games, the Patriots nearly blew another fourth-quarter lead.

And for the first time all season, the team found a way to close in crunch time.

As ugly as it could have been, Tom Brady made sure the Pats avoided their fourth loss of the season and their place atop the AFC East.

After struggling to get anything going in the fourth quarter, Brady engineered two signature drives, one coming with less 1:37 left and the other in overtime.

Although they had to settle for field goals in both situations, the defense ended up pulling through when it mattered most, as linebacker Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham teamed up for a game-ending strip-sack of Mark Sanchez.

Though there are still plenty of areas of concern—namely the pass defense and the Brady-Brandon Lloyd connection—the Patriots have to be happy about escaping with a 29-29 victory over their most bitter rival.
Let’s take a look at this week’s risers and fallers.

Risers

1. Rob Ninkovich, LB: For the second straight season, Rob Ninkovich is the Patriots’ unsung hero on defense. The versatile 6’2”, 260-pound linebacker/defensive end has been a game-changer in 2012, and his performance against the Jets proved it. Since Week 4, the seven-year veteran has recorded 21 tackles, 3.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. His strip-sack and recovery in overtime sealed the narrow victory for New England.

2. Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo, LBs: Once Dont’a Hightower grows into his own, this unit will be the best in the NFL. For now, the Patriots will settle for the dynamic duo of Mayo & Spikes. Both linebackers punished Jets ball carriers Sunday and were instrumental to holding New York to just 106 yards on the ground. Spikes’ bone-crushing hit on Shonn Greene was a thing of beauty, and Mayo flew to the ball and continued his impressively consistent play. These two have special potential and are the emotional and physical leaders of the defense.

3. Rob Gronkowski, TE: Gronk isn’t on pace to match last year’s record-breaking season, but he’s still been the best tight end in the game. The 6’6”, 265-pound manchild showed tremendous hands in reeling in his first touchdown reception, and his third-quarter score put the Patriots up 10 points. More importantly, he was a reliable target for Brady on New England’s final drive, which ended in a game-tying field goal. With Hernandez getting healthier by the week, Gronk should be freed up to make more plays in the passing game.

4. Stephen Gostowski, K: The former Pro Bowler faced heavy criticism for missing a pair of crucial kicks earlier this season, but he was money on Sunday. He only kicked two field goals, yet they were critical. His 43-yarder at the end of regulation sent the game to OT, and he easily converted a 48-yarder on the Patriots’ only possession in OT, which ended up being the game-winner.

Fallers

1. Ras-I Dowling, CB: Ever since he went down with a hip injury against Miami in Week 2 last season, it’s been a rough ride for Ras-I. The former top pick of the second round in 2011 has fallen down the depth chart, and his performance Sunday did nothing to suggest he deserves to be on the field. Despite his length and overall size, the former Virginia Cavalier did poorly in coverage, drawing several holding calls. Unless he makes a quick turnaround, he might not be in New England next season.

2. Pass defense: New England might have generated four sacks and an interception, but Mark Sanchez actually picked them apart for the most part. Rookie Alfonzo Dennard had his moments, but he was far from perfect. Kyle Arrington continued to be an easy matchup as Jeremy Kerley toasted the Patriots secondary for 120 yards on seven receptions. New England’s poor safety play and general lack of awareness has resulted in far too many big plays, a potential crippling blow to any Super Bowl hopes.

3. Brandon Lloyd, WR: For all the preseason hype about Brandon Lloyd, he just hasn’t shown me enough. He’s been a solid addition, but he hasn’t been special. Sunday was Lloyd’s worst game as a Patriot, as the former Pro Bowler dropped several potential big catches and just wasn’t on the same page as Brady. His production has made people forget about the failed Chad Ochocinco experiment, but fans and coaches expected more big plays from the veteran wideout. Hopefully he and Brady can continue to develop their chemistry so he can be unleashed as a vertical threat.
 

After the Patriots shook off the stink of their first two losses with a 45-point 2nd half in Buffalo, I titled the game recap: "You make your own luck".   Today, the Patriots came within a hair of a loss to the New York Jets a home, and required a kick-off return for a touchdown, a safety, a dropped pass from a wide receiver with no one around him for at least seven yards, a game-tying kick in the final seconds of regulation ,a game-winning kick in overtime, and a game-ending fumble in overtime to notch that W.   Yes, you do make your own luck.  Credit Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski, and Rob Ninkovich for rising to the occasion with huge plays.  At the same time, the Patriots did nothing but leave Stephen Hill wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open when he dropped that pass in the 4th quarter that would have kept a potential New York touchdown drive alive and put the Pats down 4 instead of tied in the game's final minutes. 

Yup, the Pats found themselves a leprechaun this week.

This game had all the makings of yet another 4th quarter meltdown by the Patriots.  When the team was up by 10 in the 4th with the ball, I kept muttering to myself, "Now's the time to step on their throat."  "Don't let them hang around like all those other teams".   And what did the Patriots do?  The started running gimmicky screen passes that were eaten up for lossed yard.  The Patriots punted, the Jets abused our secondary, and then pulled within three after a touchdown.  I'll tell you right now, if the Patriots had lost this game, I had the following photo all set up and ready to lead off with...

Talk about re-run city.   So what do the Patriots do?   They stall out yet again on offense.   (Stop me if you've heard this one already.)  Now, with but mere minutes left on the clock, I'm bracing myself for the inevitable Mark Sanchez touchdown drive with about 1:15 left to drive the stake into our hearts.  The only question at this point is how it's going to happen.  Will Jeremy Kerley simply blow past our safeties for a wide-open score, or will Kyle Arrington not turn his head and draw a pass-interference penalty in the endzone to set up a 1-yard touchdown run?  Thankfully, Stephen Hill came down with the dropsies and saved the game for us, because again, our secondary had left him wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open.  Nick Folk then ties the game with a field goal.

But now I'm starting to feel alright, because the Patriots managed to avoid their typical script for blowing a game.  They actually had some timeouts and weren't trailing.  This is the time where you look to the sidelines, see that you've got #12 on your team and start feeling confident.  And then Devin McCourty decided to run out of the endzone when he had no chance of actually making it to the twenty and fumbles the ball. 

At this point, I'm borderline catatonic.  I actually have no idea what the defense did following that fumble, but props to them.  I just know that all of a sudden, it's fourth down, there's actually some time left on the clock, and the Pats have two timeouts.  Folk puts the Jets ahead, and we're back to where we were a few minutes earlier except now we need Brady to tie the game, not win it.  McCorty manages to not fumble this time, and the Pats are off to the races. 

How nervous was I for Stephen Gostkowski's kick?  Honestly, not even a little.  The Ghost is too good to kill two game-determining opportunities in a row with botched kicks. 

So now we're at the coin toss, and the Patriots win it.  (Leprechaun time, baby!)  At this point, where you're matching drives, it really boils down to Brady vs. Sanchez.  Brady didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped (I was really hoping for the walk-off TD to Gronk), but the offense put Gostkowski in position to nail another clutch kick.  And then all the pressure shifted to the defense.  My only real concern at this point, was that with essentially four downs, Rex Ryan had some flexibility to throw long down the field once per series and test out our secondary.   Thankfully, Alfonzo Dennard made a heads up play, and rather than pulling a McCourty and drawing pass interference on a 40-yard bomb, decided to cut his losses and get flagged for a 5-yard holding penalty.   That play kept the Jets buried on their side of the field, and allowed for Rob Ninkovich to put the lights out with a sack-fumble of Sanchez to end the game. 

My take aways from the game...

A week ago, no one would have thought that Week 7's Pats/Jets match-up would feature teams with identical records. With a four-way tie for 1st place in the AFC East, how big is today's game and how do you see it playing out?

Raj:   I believe this is a must-win for New England unless they wanna grab the either two wild card spots and be content with playing on the road all the way to the Super Bowl (unless they finish 5th and play the 6th seed). That being said, with a 4-way tie, this matchup could not have come at a better time. The winner will have a clear advantage in the step towards clinching this division while the loser will have to do some praying and math. I expect the Patriots to fill in some of the errors they committed against Seattle, such as allowing deep 40-50 yard passes to work every time. They'll be playing with rage from that tragic defeat. Brady will be a smarter QB as well so there's no reason why the Patriots should not win this game. 

Stephen:  This is the most important game to date because it is a statement game. The Jets are New England's most hated rival, and the Patriots need to come out roaring after a disappointing Week 6 loss in Seattle. Expect New England to pound the ball against New York's poor run defense and then mix in the Boston TE Party. Defensively, the Pats will probably gear up to stop the run and make Mark Sanchez do something he's been unsuccessful at against them: beat the Pats with his arm. I expect this one to be a decisive victory for New England.

Jason:  You know that scene in The Avengers where the Hulk grabs the bad guy by the feet and thrashes him around like a line cook trying to put out a grease fire with a towel? That's pretty much how I expect this one to go, except in my version, the guys in green will be getting beat up.

Derek:  Unlike Raj, I don't see today's game as a must-win if the Patriots are going to take the AFC East crown.  Even if the Jets, by some miraculous circumstance, do come out of Foxboro with a W, they will only be a game up on the Patriots. Do you really believe that over the next nine games, the Jets are going to outplay the Patriots and maintain that lead?  Neither do I.   Today's game is about putting the team back on a winning track and swatting the annoying mosquito that's been buzzing around our ear.   It is only a must-win in the sense that it would be extremely, extremely difficult for the Pats to wrap up a bye week if they drop this game. 

For that reason, I also disagree with Stephen that today's game is the most important of the season so far.  That was Week 3 against the Ravens.  The two biggest games on the schedule this season are @ Baltimore and Vs. Houston, with Vs. Denver coming as a close third.  Those are your three other division winners and the teams that New England will by jockey with for playoff positioning.  The Pats and the Jets may both be 3-3, but they are on completely different planets.  One team overachieved their way to 3-3, while the other underachieved.  The Jets lost by over 8x times the amount of points in their one loss to San Francisco than the Patriots have lost by in their three losses this season combined.  I think that's all you need to know.

After a disappointing loss against the Seattle Seahawks last week, the 3-3 New England Patriots travel back home to take on one of their fiercest AFC East rivals, the New York Jets. With the whole division tied at 3-3, every game becomes crucial. This one is especially important for the Patriots to win at home after they have had all their struggles in close games this season. Being a New Yorker, I listen to Rex Ryan and the Jets every week so this game has more meaning to me than most games on the schedule.

For the Jets, all the talk around them has been their two quarterbacks in Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. Tebow was brought in the offseason, but has not made much of an impact so far. For Rex Ryan, he is looking for guys on his team to step up after some key injuries so far this year to cornerback Darrelle Revis and wide receiver Santonio Holmes. They are getting healthier at the wide receiver position, but the question around the Jets has to be their lack of a pass rush and can their offense score enough points to keep up with Tom Brady and the gang? Plus, can they do it against a Patriots’ offense that now has tight end Aaron Hernandez back into the lineup.

Here are my three keys to this weekend’s matchup in Foxboro:

QB Tom Brady

The Jets defend the pass much better than they defend the run, and the Patriots are certain to exploit that weakness early and often. Even if the Pats lean on the run, I expect Brady to make the Jets pay with big plays off playaction. He won’t be airing it out 50 times this week, but he’ll still likely put up 275 yards and 2-3 scores.

RBs Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden, Danny Woodhead

Bolden has been nursing a knee injury all week, so you’re starting him at your own risk. That opens the door for Ridley to plow through the Jets shoddy run defense to the tune of well over 100 total yards and 1-2 scores. If Bolden can’t go, Woodhead becomes an interesting flex player, as he could easily rack up over 60 yards in a supporting role.

WRs Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd

There should be no slowing down the Wes Welker train this week, as he should have no trouble racking up his 6-7 catches for 90 and a score this week. Antonio Cromartie will likely be covering Lloyd, and he also dinged his shoulder last week. I’d say he could slot in as a #3 WR this week, but shallow leaguers may well have better options. Given the amount of other mismatches the Pats can exploit here, forecasting anything more than 50 yards for Lloyd is optimistic.

TEs Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Gronk has a bunch of bumps and bruises, but it hasn’t slowed him down much. Both he and Hernandez (who practiced twice this week) should present enormous mismatches and will be targeted frequently. I think they’ll distribute around 130 yards and 1-2 scores fairly evenly, though I think it’s possible that Hernandez outshines Gronk by a slight margin.

New England Defense/Special Teams

The Jets have only given up nine sacks all year and turned the ball over 10 times. Against most teams, those stats would be enough to sit the New England D this week. But given the fact that Mark Sanchez is still Mark Sanchez, and considering the fact that they don’t have a viable NFL running back or #1 WR, I think it’s safe to play them this week as the Jets furiously try (and likely fail) to come from behind. Expect 2 sacks, 2-3 turnovers and a 50-50 shot at a defensive or special teams TD.