The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites as they host the Miami Dolphins in Week 8.
This line has me as confused as a referee in last week’s game. Of New England’s five wins this year, four were in serious doubt heading into the final two or three minutes. Points have been at a premium for this edition of the Pats -- the 2007 juggernaut, this is not. And I feel like I’m beating a dead horse (kinda like Reggie Wayne … anybody? … too soon?), but it bears repeating that this New England defense has been decimated by injuries. I feel like I’m talking about the IR every week, but it’s still really difficult to overstate how much those injuries matter to this team. If this year’s team had last year’s defense, they might easily be 3-4 instead of 5-2. Their defense the rest of the way could end up being worse than last year’s. If Gronk weren’t healthy and shoring up the receiving unit, I’d gladly pick the Dolphins to win straight up. Getting a TD here is a gift.
The only thing that makes me pause about grabbing the points here is the fact that the Dolphins invented a way to lose last week to the Bills. At the same time, it’s easy to give them a bit of a pass since they had a pick-six among three unlikely turnovers, and yet they still managed to only lose on a last-second field goal with a -2 turnover differential. As losses to inferior teams go, this one wasn’t atrocious.
I’m taking the Dolphins and the points here. You know what else I’d like to take? Ryan Tannehill’s wife. In case you haven’t noticed, she’s really hot.
Other Lines I Like
Seattle (-11) @ St. Louis
Do you know who will be playing QB for the Rams? Anybody? Maybe that guy who wasn’t good enough to hold a clipboard for the Pats when Ryan Mallet had to use the facilities? On a side note, does anybody remember the days when primetime games were interesting? Seriously, we get Giants-Vikings, Bucs-Panthers, Packers-Vikings and Seahawks-Rams consecutively. That’s like having four blind dates, and every one of them is with Sandra Bernhard. Kids, go ahead and Google who the hell is Sandra Bernhard. I’ll still be here when you get back.
Packers (-10) @ Vikings
If you’re going to take one double-digit road favorite, you might as well go all-in and take both. Josh Freeman looked worse than Josh Freeman usually looks, and he’s still going to be a few weeks into the playbook. The Packers are beat up on offense, but against Minnesota’s secondary, it might not matter.
2013 Record ATS: 8-12-1
Record ATS since 2010: 115-111-3