The Patriots opened as 1-point favorites as they host the New Orleans Saints in Week 6.
After doing their best Jets impression last week, New England desperately needs a confidence-builder. I’m trying to think if there would be a worse time for the Pats to face a QB like Drew Brees and a rejuvenated Saints defense, but I’m coming up empty. I usually leave the statistics up to the weekly previews, but the numbers really illustrate how far the Pats may be outclassed here.
The Saints rarely have any trouble putting points on the scoreboard. But what concerns me most in their defense. They’ve had little trouble getting to the QB (15 sacks), they’ve reeled in more picks (7) than passing TDs allowed (6), and they’ve allowed just 2 rushing scores on the year. The only weakness that might be exploitable is a run defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per carry, but the Pats will have to do it likely without their top two RBs.
The New England defense has been a pleasant surprise, but they haven’t faced a unit in the same zip code as New Orleans. The Saints are averaging over 30 points per game over their past three contests. Homefield should count for something, but a frustrated fan base may be less than helpful to the offense if they struggle early.
All of these stats add up to a likely New Orleans win. Since the spread is only a single point, I’m taking the moneyline at +105.
Other Lines I Like
Jags (+28) @ Denver
Listen, Denver is a great team. And the Jags look like they’d struggle to keep up with a middling Big Ten school. But we’re talking about four touchdowns here. That’s a monster. Do you think the Broncos are going to show their best plays against Jacksonville? If Denver is up by four TDs at the start of the fourth quarter, do you think they’re leaving in Manning, Welker, Thomas and Decker and risking an injury? Or how about Rodgers-Cromartie, considering the fact that Champ Bailey is already gimpy? Even if the Jags get blown out, they have a chance to cover against Denver’s B-team.
Texans (-7) vs. Rams
When Houston has played teams that can’t stop the run, they’ve scored at least 30. The Rams can’t stop the run. At all. The Texans have also faced a glut of above-average offenses thus far. The Rams are not above average on offense. At all. I think this one looks that easy.
NOTE: I don’t often chase exotic bets, but I absolutely love all three of the lines included in this week’s column. These three are a parlay waiting to happen.
2013 Record ATS: 5-9-1
Record ATS since 2010: 112-108-3