The Patriots are on a much-needed bye in Week 10.
Despite being considered a disappointment by fans and experts alike, the Patriots are actually 5-4 against the spread this year. They have also achieved that record by conventional methods; they’ve covered 4 out of 5 times at home and came up short against the number 3 out of 4 times on the road. That also shows how sharp the oddsmakers have been this year. At least that explanation is a whole lot easier to swallow than the alternative, which is the unfathomable idea that my picks have sucked donkey balls this season.
While the Patriots’ stars are sipping margaritas and joking about Richie Incognito’s next career options (human resources director? camp counselor? grocery bagger? nanny?), here are three numbers I like this week.
Ravens (+1.5) vs. Bengals
I’m holding out hope that this means a 28-27 Bengals win, but when given a chance to get points with a veteran team at home against a divisional opponent, you kinda have to take it.
Saints (-6.5) vs. Cowboys
The Saints have killed against the number at home and gotten killed on the road, including last week’s flop against the Jets. It’s also November, so Tony Romo’s days of acceptable play are quickly drawing to a close.
Broncos (-7) @ Chargers
If you want to bet against Peyton Manning off a bye, be my guest. Also, if you want to bet on Phillip Rivers continuing to play like a poor man’s Peyton Manning, be my guest.
2013 Record ATS: 11-15-1
Record ATS since 2010: 118-114-3