Colts (+6.5) @ Ravens
The Colts have assumed the mantle as the NFL’s sweetheart team because of Pagano, but they have backed their playoff spot up with solid play on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Ravens have played somewhere between embarrassingly terrible and barely passable for much of the season. No way do they deserve this much respect.
Texans (-4.5) vs. Bengals
The Texans have been ice-cold the past few weeks, but I still think they deserve the benefit of the doubt against a team that hasn’t beaten a good team since Week 3. A friend of mine joked that the AFC has five playoff teams and the Bengals. That’s a pretty apt description.
Vikings (+7.5) @ Packers
I don’t quite know what to make of the Vikings, but they have a few factors working in their favor, including the best RB on earth facing a team that struggles to stop the run. I don’t think Minnesota is good enough to march into Lambeau and beat Aaron Rodgers, but I think they’re good enough to hang around and keep it interesting. When you’re getting more than a TD, that’s good enough.
Redskins (+3) vs. Seahawks
I like Russell Wilson enough, but it’s worth noting that his home/road splits were ugly. His QB rating was 40 points lower away from CenturyLink. Even though I routinely bet against home underdogs, I’m told they are useful. There is a wide range of outcomes for this game, so I’ll take the points.
2012 Record ATS: 29-23
ATS since 2010: 100-90-4