The Patriots opened as 10.5-point favorites as they host the New York Jets in Week 7.
I'm not sure what I hate more right now: the Jets, or the fact that the Pats have found a way to lose three games in the last two minutes of the games by a combined total of four points. It’s probably still the Jets. But that question leads me to the main point of this article – the Patriots may be 3-3, but they could easily be 6-0 right now if they make three plays. Gostkowski makes the FG, the refs make the proper determination on Baltimore’s game-winner and they don’t muff that easy FG opportunity at the end of the first half at Seattle. Three plays away from being 6-0.
Meanwhile, the 3-3 Jets have a negative point differential, and they’re missing their top playmaker on both offense and defense. The Jets may have a .500 record, but it’s a marshmallow-soft .500. Like the kind that could collapse to 6-10, and nobody bats an eyelash.
Time to delve into the stats. Where to start, where to start … hey, how about Mark Sanchez? 27 other quarterbacks have more passing yards, including eight who have played one fewer game than the Jets. Defense, you ask? They’re giving up 4.7 yards per carry and 8 TDs on the ground, plus 6 more through the air.
I will very rarely be excited to give up 10.5 points to a team playing against a division rival. But based on personnel and the obvious edge in coaching, this is the kind of rivalry that Kobayashi has with hot dogs. I’m taking the Pats to win big and cover comfortably.
Other Lines I Like
Cowboys (-2.5) @ Panthers
Quick, what do you call a guy who bets on Dallas when they're a favorite on the road? Broke! But I think the Dallas D is gooing enough to hold Newton in check, and no matter who is running the ball, Carolina can't stop them (said the guy who bets on Dallas even though he knows that has never worked, ever).
Steelers (-2.5) @ Bengals
OK, so we know that the Pittsburgh defense is old, slow and pretty much worthless. And we know their offensive line is one step away from recruiting garbage men and cable repair guys to play on the offensive line. And their quarterback is a recently reformed predator. And they don't play great on the road. So why are we backing this team? Oh right, they're playing a Bengals team that has found a way to lose to everyone.
2012 Record ATS 15-7
Record ATS since 2010 86-73-4