The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites as they travel to New York to face the Jets on Thanksgiving.
Before we devour copious amounts of tryptophan covered in gravy, we should pause to give thanks for two things. One, the Jets really and truly suck this year. And two, the Patriots haven’t lost any significant players to injury when the game was inexorably out of reach. Well fuck. At least we have one thing to be thankful for.
Even though the Jets thoroughly suck in ways I only dreamed possible at the beginning of the season, taking the points in this contest is an easy decision. Home teams on a short week have been gangbusters this year (7-4), and New England will have to make some drastic adjustments to the gameplan with Gronkowski out of the lineup. Short of an injury in the playoffs, there really wasn’t a worse time for this to happen.
And even though the Jets have been as atrocious as that Rex Ryan foot fetish video this year, they did keep things close at New England a few weeks ago. They’ve built their team to be competitive in the two games against the Pats to the detriment of the other 14 games on the schedule, and the injuries at tight end may force the Pats to go against the strength of the Jets pass defense.
I think the Pats will gut out a close victory, but I’m certainly not confident enough to give up the points. I’m taking the Jets to cover.
Other Lines I Like
Colts (-3) vs. Bills
I’m just going to enjoy the first and only time that Andrew Luck’s team will ever be favored by less than a TD at home against Ryan Fitzpatrick’s team. The Colts were bad for one game; the Bills have been bad for over a decade.
Rams (+2.5) @ Cardinals
Nobody knows what house of horrors the Cardinals will unleash at QB this week. When you’re getting points to potentially bet against a signal-caller who stares at his first read like he’s the New York Times crossword puzzle, you don’t ask questions.
2012 Record ATS: 19-15
Record ATS since 2010: 90-81-4