The Patriots opened as 9-point favorites as they host the Colts in Week 11.
This line is a bit of a head-scratcher. The Colts defense typically alternates between quasi-competent and a little bit bad, so the Pats shouldn’t have much trouble putting points on the scoreboard. In that sense, 9 points isn’t a lot. But I’m starting to wonder if the bookmakers have ever seen New England’s secondary. That particular unit alternates between spilled milk and a cat pissing on a rug. I’m convinced that the best form of pass defense for the Patriots this year is prayer (“please let him drop it, please let him drop it, pleeeeease let him drop it…”).
Bill Belichick has a pretty good win-loss record against rookie quarterbacks, but Andrew Luck sure isn’t playing like a rookie. He hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of defenses the past three weeks, but he’s completed a crazy percentage of passes and avoided costly mistakes. If he keeps playing like a five-year veteran, the Colts are going to keep the pressure on Brady and the offense.
I do think the Pats will gut out a win here, but I think it’s overly optimistic to expect them to win by double digits. I’m taking the Colts and the points.
Other Lines I Like
Packers (-3.5) @ Lions
So remember what I said last week about the Lions heading in the right direction? Me neither. Let’s pretend that didn’t happen.
Eagles (+3.5) @ Redskins
The Eagles didn’t invent the concept of committing costly turnovers at exceptionally inopportune times, but they’ve sure as hell perfected it. I’m betting the absence of Mike Vick will turn out to be more important than the paltry amount of rushing yards he contributed.